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Zecco.com » General Investing » Screening & Picking » Wednesday Stock Picks
Last post 05-20-2008, 6:42 AM by aquaswim47. 5 replies.
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  •  05-19-2008, 10:41 PM 29386

    Wednesday Stock Picks

    Reply Quote
    I myself got hammered in JCP and I chalked it up to experience.  I've been successful at digging out of that crater (cut a 26.5% loss down to 9%), but I am thinking of several prospects.

    Three Orders that I plan to buy:
    1) Buy 3 shares of XLU or if FCX falls, buy one share of that
    2) Buy 1 share of ABT
    3) Buy 2 shares of HPQ

    This provides me with the potential of having a diversified portfolio by year end.

    OR

    1) Buy 1 share of ABT
    2) Buy 2 shares of VMW
    3) Sell 2 shares of JCP
    4) Buy 2 shares of HPQ

    This makes my portfolio tech-centric. While tech looks cheap over the next 5 years, over the short-term, it might have a correction and since I went through one in retail, I don't like the idea of another one.

    I'm looking at my options and a couple of stocks that I'm taking a careful look at include: HPQ, VMW, WFC, GS, ABT, PFE, XLU, and COP, amongst others. I personally don't like chasing stocks (like COP), but there's no substitute for quality. I'm even taking a look at ISRG, which would require that I unload all of my biotech stocks (GSK, DNA, and cash that would be used to buy ABT). I might even consider selling GOOG to buy CME.

    Any suggestions.
    Aqua

  •  05-19-2008, 11:39 PM 29394 in reply to 29386

    Re: Wednesday Stock Picks

    Reply Quote
    Aqua, you are making me feel bad here.  Are you really only buying this few of shares of these stocks?  Unless you only use the Zecco free trades you are putting yourself in a terrible hole to cover the commissions.  I may have double your stocks up for you to help you out a bit.  It'll be like a buy one get one free sale.

  •  05-20-2008, 12:02 AM 29395 in reply to 29394

    Re: Wednesday Stock Picks

    Reply Quote
    I've also been watching COP and ISRG.  For now, forget about COP....it is too far off the launch pad.  It would be like hitching a ride on the space shuttle just as it was about to make it's final descent.  Sure, it would be one hell of a ride but would be an expensive ticket to ground level.  ISRG looks to be having some trouble at the 50 day EMA and may continue to consolidate at it's current level before it continues it's climb.  There is plenty of time to reach the lauch pad on this one.

  •  05-20-2008, 12:09 AM 29396 in reply to 29386

    Re: Wednesday Stock Picks

    Reply Quote
    aquaswim47,

    I do not see the point, to be perfectly frank, in buying ONE or TWO or so shares of a stock as an investment over the long term as a value screen investor, or any long term buy and holder. Ditto as a trader over the immediate/short term. This means if you hit it out of the park on any one pick, your return in serious cash is so miniscule it becomes a moot point.

    Further, if you *do* hit a lucky winner that was undervalued, and allocate approximately equal position sizes to each security, the bonanza is going to be curtailed with added insult to injury of "what could have been"...

    It takes thousands to invest in a stock portfolio as a serious stake holder. Having the best diversified lot in the world will not help you if you have 1-2 share positions per stock issue. It seems more sensible to paper trade if one is going to be so conservative with fund allocation. If you have a small stake of position use capital, you can play options only (risky) or you can buy into a mutal fund or better still, a non-actively managed index fund for investments, but individual stocks make little sense. To do these right, about $30,000 is a minimum for a portfolio of any consequence.

    I realize the folks at Motley Fool argue if you have over 5,000 you can play individual stocks, but that requires good stock picking. JCP is hardly a hidden gem. They would tout the other suggestions I offered for a 3,000-5,000 stake. Your entire stake seems to be less than 3,000. How many equities do you currently hold to make up your portfolio?

    It seldom pays to hold onto a stock that falls much past 7-8% of your purchase price. You have no way of knowing that the equity will ever recover, and the further in the red you fall, the harder it is to recover. Once a loss reaches deep holes, it can take years to even trim, with no certainty that the business will even be in existance long enough to get back to break even. Given that a 33% drop in price per share needs a 50% climb north to get back to break even, the risk to reward simply is not there to keep holding on and hoping.

    Please do not take these suggestions as a criticism, I am only trying to be helpful. Your post caused me to do a double take when I read it, although I assume it was meant to be taken seriously by your intended viewers...


     

  •  05-20-2008, 2:50 AM 29401 in reply to 29386

    Re: Wednesday Stock Picks

    Reply Quote
    hiya Aqua;
    ABT;the low in the last 10 yrs is what around twenty something the high was sixty something
    running around fifty two now .... I don't see the % for much growth in a while unless they do something big.
    I have to concure with the other posts on your amount of stocks purchased... why so little... is there a reason.. just wondering... as you know I am still testing the waters but I try to mix my stocks some are only purchased at less than a dollar example i got into qtww at  .75 only 200 shares at the time. I have made some money but i think that was only the second stock i got but then i got ford @ 6.00 still makeing some
    money but getting the feel for things... still up 18-19% overall for the last two or three months... Now I am planning to move up to stocks in the range of 10 to 15 bucks a pop still keeping the volume up there....
    but it is ironic that I am making more cash return on the stocks that cost less that a buck... reason why
    volume of stock owned.... walmart principle working here large volume low profit per unit = big over all profit...that is the way i see it so far who knows
    good luck
    brwtrpilot

  •  05-20-2008, 6:42 AM 29404 in reply to 29386

    Re: Wednesday Stock Picks

    Reply Quote
    aquaswim47:
    I myself got hammered in JCP and I chalked it up to experience.  I've been successful at digging out of that crater (cut a 26.5% loss down to 9%), but I am thinking of several prospects.

    Three Orders that I plan to buy:
    1) Buy 3 shares of XLU or if FCX falls, buy one share of that
    2) Buy 1 share of ABT
    3) Buy 2 shares of HPQ

    This provides me with the potential of having a diversified portfolio by year end.

    OR

    1) Buy 1 share of ABT
    2) Buy 2 shares of VMW
    3) Sell 2 shares of JCP
    4) Buy 2 shares of HPQ

    This makes my portfolio tech-centric. While tech looks cheap over the next 5 years, over the short-term, it might have a correction and since I went through one in retail, I don't like the idea of another one.

    I'm looking at my options and a couple of stocks that I'm taking a careful look at include: HPQ, VMW, WFC, GS, ABT, PFE, XLU, and COP, amongst others. I personally don't like chasing stocks (like COP), but there's no substitute for quality. I'm even taking a look at ISRG, which would require that I unload all of my biotech stocks (GSK, DNA, and cash that would be used to buy ABT). I might even consider selling GOOG to buy CME.

    Any suggestions.


    I've got free trades as I have above the required amount. I haven't had a problem with free trades.

    I like to pick stocks "for fun" and to try to get a Warren Buffet return every year. I'm seeking to maximizing my gains and am thus a long-term investor. My holding period for a stock has ranged from a couple of days to 18 months but if I own multiple shares like JCP, I'm trading in and out of that stock; even though its an 18 month hold, I might only own half of my maximum position and am trading around a core position. I am a sypre young investor with plenty of time on my hands to grow my portfolio.


    Trading GOOG for CME is merely an option because of how much GOOG has grown; it is not because I have to although I definitely thank you for your concern.
    Aqua
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