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Last post 01-25-2007, 5:41 PM by Zenmonster. 1 replies.
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  •  01-24-2007, 10:15 PM 3732

    Time Horizon

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    http://www.zecco.com/blogs/indexfundfans_blog/Value-Averaging.aspx refers to facinating research testing a variant of dollar cost averaging called Value Averaging.  The results suggest that plain Dollar Cost Averaging does no better than investing radom amounts, but that in many likely market conditions, we can expect Value Averaging to do much better than either Dollar Cost Averaging or random investing.

    Given that, what would be a reasonable time horizon to use?  Say I want to invest $10,000 in an ETF or a REIT.  If I stretch the process out too long, my uninvested money is eaten up by inflation.  But if I compresss the process of investing into too short a time, I lose the benefits of Value Averaging (or Dollar Cost Averaging or Random Investing) because what I am doing is not that different from investing all at once.  Who has done calculations or simulations to determine a reasonable time horizon?


    Regards,
    cjo27bp
  •  01-25-2007, 5:41 PM 3755 in reply to 3732

    Re: Time Horizon

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    Hello again; I just started a new post on Value Averaging in this forum and hadn't seen this post yet.  Before I go on, I have to say that I'm not so sure that I agree with DCA being less effective then random investing.  With random investing do they truly expect us to try to randomize our investing?  Because almost no one truly invests without any forethought (or emotion), in fact the average person tends to sell when they see their investment plummeting and buy when it's already risen 100% and they're scared to death to miss out on the next 100%.  Morningstar.com refers to people of this mentality (or this general mental tendency) as Mr. Market, and there's a scary number of them out there as the market will attest. 

    In any case, REITs can be a bit risky historically, so I would say a one-year monthly or quarterly plan might be good for VA or DCA purposes.  I tend not to to this though, I tend to put my money in right away--though $10,000 is a lot for one investment on my end, I would have to split it up into two or three different equities I feel strongly about.  I tend to stay fully-invested, diversified to some degree and value-conscious.  Good luck with this! 

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