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Zecco.com » General Investing » ETF & Mutual Fund Investing » The economy is in the tank
Last post 06-03-2008, 6:41 AM by aquaswim47. 5 replies.
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  •  06-01-2008, 6:44 PM 30234

    The economy is in the tank

    Reply Quote
    For 10 months, that's all we've heard on the news, on CNBC, and the associated press (AP). Bad news bears are always looking for an opportunity to short the market and they don't care how many people they scare out of the market to achieve their objectives. I commend them for being highly successful in making people believe that we are in a severe recession when we haven't even had 1 month of negative GDP growth. You need 6 months of negative GDP to have a recession.

    I'm one of those bulls in the market. $4 Gas has already been very helpful as it means we all get smaller cars and adjust our lifestyle. People paying off credit cards would have a short-term detriment to the economy but since it gives more money for people to spend, it, over the long-term, looks very good.
    Aqua

  •  06-02-2008, 12:07 AM 30249 in reply to 30234

    Re: The economy is in the tank

    Reply Quote
    Yep, I agree with you.  So far the US economy seems (to me) to not be in as bad a shape as some would have us think.  Just an example, $4.00 a gallon for gas here but in the UK it is $9.00 a gallon.

  •  06-02-2008, 1:03 AM 30254 in reply to 30249

    Re: The economy is in the tank

    Reply Quote
    I'm sure our "lower" gas prices are partially the result of the government's heavy subsidation of the oil industry.  If we had a truly free market, I wouldn't doubt that we'd be much further on our way to alternative energy and much more efficient automobiles.  Instead, our government continues to subsidize the oil industry and at the same time, holding Americans hostage to foreign oil all while championing mandates for alternative energy.  And to think people actually want these fools to manage our healthcare.  Give me a break!

  •  06-02-2008, 6:44 AM 30258 in reply to 30254

    Re: The economy is in the tank

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    jctii0:
    I'm sure our "lower" gas prices are partially the result of the government's heavy subsidation of the oil industry.  If we had a truly free market, I wouldn't doubt that we'd be much further on our way to alternative energy and much more efficient automobiles.  Instead, our government continues to subsidize the oil industry and at the same time, holding Americans hostage to foreign oil all while championing mandates for alternative energy.  And to think people actually want these fools to manage our healthcare.  Give me a break!



    Europe subsidizes its healthcare with the costs of the gas taxes it charges. That's why it's $8.30 per gallon. I pay $90-95 per week for fuel with a small car so I find it very interesting. I'm just happy we aren't enslaved to carbon credits. Not yet anyway.

    I think we should all get on the bandwagon of nuclear power. Getting the Middle East off our backs is a great thing. I believe that nuclear power would let us transition to natural gas for transportation. I think we should have a 5 year Manhattan Project or at least an Apollo project to get off Mideast oil.

    I feel that if we had gotten more fuel efficient cars, we would all be complaining that gas was 89 cents per gallon and that we conserved for nothing. Supply and demand dictates markets, thus $4 per gallon is not surprising to me.
    Aqua

  •  06-03-2008, 12:14 AM 30360 in reply to 30258

    Re: The economy is in the tank

    Reply Quote
    IMO, Gas has peaked.  Supposedly, people in the US are actually driving less, and gas sales are dropping.  Also, everyone and their mother thinks Gas is going to keep going up and up (I've heard 11/gal in 1 yr).  This is how I know the market has topped.  Just like a couple of months ago when everyone was taking about how great an investment gold was. 

    I got that one right.  Lets try two for two.  BTW, gold is actually looking good to me again, now that no one is taking about it.

    *Disclaimer*  I will probably not buy gold.  I prefer silver :)

    Good Luck,
    Scott
    S&P 500 Trend

  •  06-03-2008, 6:41 AM 30380 in reply to 30360

    Re: The economy is in the tank

    Reply Quote
    Scott ¥$£:
    IMO, Gas has peaked.  Supposedly, people in the US are actually driving less, and gas sales are dropping.  Also, everyone and their mother thinks Gas is going to keep going up and up (I've heard 11/gal in 1 yr).  This is how I know the market has topped.  Just like a couple of months ago when everyone was taking about how great an investment gold was. 

    I got that one right.  Lets try two for two.  BTW, gold is actually looking good to me again, now that no one is taking about it.

    *Disclaimer*  I will probably not buy gold.  I prefer silver :)

    Good Luck,
    Scott
    S&P 500 Trend


    I'll agree. That's why I believe the Dow will be at 14,200 by year-end. I heard $7 a gallon from someone. I believe the absolute top if it ever reached this point will be between $4.25 and $4.60 per gallon on a national basis and that's if we have a very active hurricane season.

    Most likely, the hurricane season will have between 13-15 named storms. The main thing is not how many storms we have, but instead if any impact the Gulf par of the US and people anticipate losses to insurers. That might be a buy point as 1) insurers have started to hedge their bets and 2) some rigs have been retrofited for a category 5 hurricane. That's particularly true if people rush out of insurance stocks because they are improperly hedged. It will take a significant amount of homework to see whether rushing out of the stock was justified or just merely panic. Remember that in 2005, it was very well justified that people sold off insurance stocks so that's surely the risk.

    I believe by the end of the summer we will be at $3.50 and my CME stock will be hovering around $375 per share. I don't care since it dramatically drops my fuel costs and CME is a partial hedge on the upside/downside.
    Aqua
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