Declines are indeed a good buying opportunity.  However it depends on if the stock is simply oversold because investors overreact or because the company is actually in deep trouble.  Technical analysis does not really tell you which is the reason.  I also looked at your record for the year and it does not give me lot of confidence.  Can you expand on how you pick your winners?

Golly, don't look at what I did, though it's hardly as bad as Zecco calculates (I still haven't figured out how they come up with negative percentages on stocks with gains and positive percentages on stocks I'm in hole).  Anyway, look back at the stocks which have appeared on my watch list (they are in the Bottom Fishing group shout box) and see how many popped, or at least bounced, following.  Understand , I look short term.  Also, I can only do what I do.  Like today, the market, and thus, many on my watch list, were already up by the time I got on line (I don't usually chase).

As for how I look for bottoms, I've expounded on that in the Bottom Fishing group discussion list.  The stocks I put on my watch list are those which could the next day fit what I think a bottom looks like.

Now I understand that technical analysis does not tell you the reason a stock is down.  It matters not to me because I'm short term.  All I'm interested in is a pop or bounce, and technicals can often tell that.  For instance, I traded IMB thrice for profits on its way down to federal take over and BK.  My bggest mistakes are selling to soon -- I'm still studying that.  Like AMD -- I sold it 4 days ago! 

preacher:

My bggest mistakes are selling to soon -- I'm still studying that.

Me too!  My biggest mistakes are holding on to the losers too long and selling the winners too soon.  I know that this is wrong, but I just can't seem to stop doing it.  

Hello you both might might think about selling your winners by half so if it still goes up you will still be making money on the shares held.Selling your losers by half could help also but using a stop loss and selling when it goes below its the better way to control losses.

In most cases, I do OK holding losers.  That's because I hold, even double up, only those whose indicators continue basic bottom patterns.  Of course, some of those end up failing -- usually because something unexpected happens.  Now if I could just figure out the hold on ups.  I know what tops look like.  I can also usually tell when to sell a stock that has stalled. But a lot of stocks in decline often have pops followed by more down without any warning whatsoever.

As for stops, they really aren't suitable with what I use in the Bottom Fishing group.  Actually, one of the best bottom tells involves a positive indicator response on a sharp down day.

 

I've added some interesting situations to my Bottom Fishing group watch list.  If the market continues to rally, it is likely to see participation spread.

The recent couple of up days again saw a lot of stocks which appeared on my watch list in the Bottom Fishing group make some good moves.  And interestingly, a lot of these did not drop that much, if at all, during the down draft Fri.  Hmmm..........

 

In the Bottom Fishing group, where I have outlined my technical approach in the discussions, my daily changing watch list includes WM, URRE, CDE, AXL, SIL, SFI, GSS, LNG, CEGE, NPD, ACW, OSK, BLG, WAVE, IAR, GFRE, TNRO, PPBV, ALTU, FLE, NXG, PPC, SPC, GTXO, LTXX, DNR, ELN, QI, COT, LEA, NEXM, RUNU, ITRO

The last two times my list increased like this, the market rallied!

 

Here's my current watch list. YUM >34, DEO >70, MMM >68, GE, PEP>64, PG >63. This is not a whole list but it is the top. All these stocks are global consumer brand names with established, wide moats. They pay dividends above 2% and have histories of consistenly raising dividends.

In times of exteme economic certainty, its conservative and prudent to hold stocks with the above characteristics, but always at the right price!

---

http://www.20sinvestor.blogspot.com
http://www.linkedin.com/in/rossgreenspan

Well, so much for a rally week.  However, most of my Bottom Fishing group holdings did not react that badly to the 300 point fall off Thur.  This is normal for stocks that are in fact bottoming.  I did sell a couple Fri., though, because of their look.  So, a rally Mon. wouldn't surprise me.  On the other hand, neither would more down surprise me, and that would tempt some buying of not a few on my watch list.

 

My Bottom Fishing group watch list is again increasing.  This usually precedes a market rally.