I wanted to provide my outlook on the shipping industry, particularly Navios Martime. This stock has taken constant battering over the last couple of weeks, but just continues to climb and I believe that it will climb to at least the $16 to $17 range before being considered a 'fair value.' Many shipping stocks have been increasing dramatically over the last year, fueled by increased trade, such as by/to China and Latin America, and increased demand for commodites. Even though a number of these shipping stocks (such as NM) are begininning to be downgraded because of their rapid increase in price, the Baltic Dry Exchange Index (BDI) has continued to advance, and I beleive Novios Maritime (NM) is due to catch up to the same returns that other shipping firms have experienced.
I thought it was a great sign that even though NM was just downgraded today by Oppenheimer (Outperform to Perform) and initially lost over 5%, it ended up over 2% up. Check out their fundamentals, and the fact that their locked in rates provide a pretty stable picture of its future revenues. What might deter potential investors, is that NM books long term rates and hence have not been able to take advantage of the continuing advance of the BDI as much as other shipping firms. The shipping industry I also do not see as a long-term investment (3 - 5+ years) since there is a large number of new ships that should be completed in 2009, providing alot more competition. But even considering the shipping industry's recent rise, I think there is room for more growth. But the firms must be examined on a case by case basis, whereas I still beleive NM is posed for further growth, DRYS may be a firm that has reached its potential (even though I remember saying that when it hit the $80's) Regardless, just thought I'd share some of my thoughts on this firm and hopefully get some other insight into the future for the shipping industry/NM/other shipping firms ect-
-mgrass
