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Zecco.com » General Investing » Portfolio Building » Right Allocations for her age???
Last post 05-10-2009, 1:45 AM by aquaswim47. 11 replies.
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  •  05-06-2009, 11:49 AM 55187

    Right Allocations for her age???

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    My mother is 50 years old and has a retirement account that is managed by VALIC. She is classified a “very aggressive.” Can anyone give me any opinions about if she is in the right "stuff" for her age? She took quite a hit (like most others) and had to take money out when she lost her job. Some of her “recommended” future Allocations are below:

    Current total assets: $23,369                Desired Annual Retirement Income: $48,169.73

    AMCENT REAL ESTATE INV (6%), AMER FUNDS EUROPAC R4 (5%), AMER FUNDS GROWTH FUND R4 (16%), DAVIS NY VENTURE A (6%), DREYFUS INTL STOCK INDEX (18%), DREYFUS PREM SM CAP VALR (3%), DREYFUS S&P 500 INDEX (25%), DREYFUS SM CAP STK INDX (12%), AND PIONEER MID-CAP VALUE A (9%)

    Any opinions or help would be much appreciated! Thanks.

     

  •  05-06-2009, 1:56 PM 55194 in reply to 55187

    Re: Right Allocations for her age???

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    This portfolio is way too risky. At her age, she should be normally be in 70-75% stocks; in this economic environment, it might be a good idea to take it out to 80% stocks especially if she as 70 as an expected retirement age. She has 94% in equities which is way too much even with these depressed prices. Now, I expect the market to double off its low of 6,547, but 1) how will we get there and 2) how long will it take? If it happens a year from now and we drop at most 10%, than that's nice. If it takes 5+ years and we drop 40% from here than that isn't as nice. So I'd be at least somewhat conservative.

    I see she has $23,369 in assets. That's very tiny for someone at 50. If there's anyway she can boost her savings, she should take advantage of it. I would have $5,369 in savings and than do the portfolio in this way:

    Total Portfolio:  $18,000

    $3,000 in Large Cap Value
    $3,000 in Large Cap Growth
    $1,000 in Mid-Cap Value
    $1,000 in Mid Cap Growth
    $1,000 in Small Cap Growth
    $1,000 in Small Cap Value
    $2,000 in Real Estate --> $12,000 in Stocks

    $2,000 in 3-7 year bonds
    $2,000 in Inflation Bonds
    $1,000 in 1-3 year bonds
    $1,000 in 7-10 year bonds

    $5,369 in cash

    I don't know what your mom's income is, what her savings pattern is, and how she pays off debt. I think if you do take a look at that, it might give you an answer as to how much you should have in cash. If she is a diligent saver, I would actually have more in cash now and put her savings into stocks and bonds savings. If she isn't as diligent of a saver, I would have her keep more in stocks and put away as much of her savings as possible each and every month.

    Hope this helps.

    Aqua
  •  05-06-2009, 4:22 PM 55202 in reply to 55194

    Re: Right Allocations for her age???

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    Thank you so much for your help. I'm a business student at Robert Morris University and although I am not a finance major, I have taken some classes and I also worked for UBS Financial last year and had a feeling this wasn’t right for her. Thanks again.
  •  05-06-2009, 4:40 PM 55203 in reply to 55187

    Re: Right Allocations for her age???

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    What are her other retirement sources of income?

    Obviously, $28,000 will not be generating $48,000 in annual income anytime in the future. Does she have any other retirement assets, pensions, alimony, or any other sources of income?

    After that, looking at Aqua's allocations, I'd say the following:

    One rule of thumb (and there are so many thumbs out there) is that 1% of the portfolio should be in bonds, per year of age of the person. So that would imply 50% being put into bonds. But again, it's important to look at her entire situation - if this is the extent of her retirements savings and sources of income, or is there another chunk of assets elsewhere?

    If these indeed are the only assets, I would aim more towards

    30% domestic equity (allocate by sector as you see fit)  (SPY shoudl be fine)
    8-10% international equity - (your choice)
    10-12% B*IC (China mainly, brazil & india, maybe, but skip past Russia)  (look at EWZ and FXI)

    That's 50% of the portfolio

    15% could be Inflation bonds, REITs, etc

    Other 35% would be in bonds, I would lean towards the shorter end of the duration, but some in the longer term as well.

    So you're you have the same skew towards equity as recommended, you also have "safety of principal" in the form of bonds, and "safety of purchasing power" in the TIPS & REITs. The BIGGEST thing after allocating that, is future contributions - she needs to step up her contributions signifantly for any hope of the lifestyle she wants at the retirement age she wants ($100 compounded at 7% annually will be $295.22 at the end of 15 years. Her $23,000 would turn into just short of $68,000 in that time.) And 7% annually might be overstating returns, given that 1/2 her assets will be in non-growth assets.

    Also important would be to rebalance frequently. If your'e using ETF's, not so frequenlty that you chew through gains with commissions. And if it's in mutual funds, I think you have a 31 or 45 day rolling rule, so maybe just quarterly...

    Again, I would check with her, her financial advisor, or someone else that may know the extent of her assets, as again, if her goal is $48k per year in retirement, that may be simply unattainable with the assets she has.
  •  05-06-2009, 6:44 PM 55205 in reply to 55203

    Re: Right Allocations for her age???

    Reply Quote
    You need to beef up the savings, at least $1,000 per month for the next 16 years. With even a 3% growth rate, you will have $240,000 and with a 5% growth rate, you will get $280,000 so with $1,000 per month of savings, you can expect to withdraw $9,000 and $10,500 per year. With a 4.25% growth rate, you will have $10,000 per year and approximately $267,200 in assets. Remember these are simply hypothetical assumptions and have no reflection in reality. They are provided for ease of understanding but in no way predict what will happen; past performance is no guarantee of future results.

     $                                       0.60  $    241,882.58  $              0.95  $    267,199.74  $                                             1.18  $    283,889.90
                                              0.03 20.1568813              0.0425 22.26664534                                                 0.05 23.65749177

    If you need a little extra cash, you may want to consider an immediate annuity. Unlike a variable annuity, the money you put into an immediate annuity is no longer part of your assets. Instead, you receive an income stream in exchange for giving up a certain sum of money. For instance, you might be able to get a 7.5% rate at age 66 on the $267,200 that you saved up from $1,000 per month of savings. If you accumulated that amount of money, you would get a monthly payout of $1,670 per month. Variable annuities have large fees (ranging from 2.25% to 4% in most cases). Remember to spread the assets around to several insurance companies as if one goes insolvent, I'm not sure of the protection you'll receive if your state cannot back you. The answer is you'll receive nothing so be careful out there. I much rather have FDIC with the printing press than the state(s) even though the state has been low risk, so far. Besides, the limit of protection is only $100,000 and it may only apply to fixed annuities so check with the state insurance commission before entering into a contract.

    If you saved $1,000 per month over 25 years, instead, you might have between $437,500 and $572,725.

     $                                       1.09  $    437,511.17  $              1.83  $    516,917.79  $                                             2.39  $    572,725.19
                                              0.03 36.45926432              0.0425 43.07648211                                                 0.05 47.72709882

    $516,000 would mean that you could withdraw about $1,612.50 per month or $19,350 per year. If you put it in an immediate annuity at 9% (since you're older), it would get you around $46,440 per year. This means she would have to work till 75. At 4%, it is $499,750 so even a small adjustment can result in a large decrease in the amount you'll receive. That would mean a payout of $44,977 per year, instead. You may want to find out yourself by going to immediateannuities.com; it is a helpful site and I hope you can get something like that. According to the site, you could get 9.8% at age 75. I hope the information is moderately accurate since I wouldn't want to give you false hope. I'd lean towards the 3-4.25% return rather than expecting a 5+ percent rate of return.


    To get to $48,000 of capital, you will need to save $55,000 to $63,000 per year for 16 years to get to $1.3 million. The rates of savings requirement drop dramatically as you bring it to 25 years. If you wait 25 years, you can get to the amount by saving between $27,500 to $36,000 per year to get to the same $1.3 million. Or put another way, it means putting away $76.50 to $100 per day to get to $1.3 million. With $50 per day, you might reach the goal of $640,000 in 25 years. A 4.25% rate of return may come if a fixed income portfolio earned you 1.5% and an equity portfolio earned you 7% and you were 50/50. Remember, these are solely hypotheticals.

    So if you manage to save the $640,000 but cannot reach $1.3 million, it is a good idea to think about how much income you need, what you would like to do in retirement, and are there any special needs that lead for the need of an inheritance? For instance, lets say you put $400,000 in a balanced portfolio of 50% equities and 50% fixed income and withdraw 3.75%, you can withdraw $15,000 annually from the portfolio and you would get $4,500 from each of the four annuities of $60,000 each for a total payout of $33,000 per year. Getting inflation-adjusted immediate annuities may result in a lower rate of return and result in not getting the money back from your annuity (because you die too early or because inflation is too low). However without inflation protection, you may not benefit fully from it. The problem is, in your 70s, you really want to be spending your money so that you get to enjoy it whereas in your 80s, it might pay for your care. Getting long-term care insurance is important if you develop these assets since the type of care that you can receive is much nicer than in a Medicaid-run facility.

    Don't worry. I have worked as a financial representative myself; it is a tough business. I think it is essential to be your own money manager as it takes a lot of effort to know what you're doing and even if you do, you can still get it wrong and there are always several opinions about a course of action. I think there are many of us with concerns for our parents. It is one thing to manage another person's money, but it hits close to home when someone close to you has financial trouble.
  •  05-06-2009, 6:57 PM 55206 in reply to 55205

    Re: Right Allocations for her age???

    Reply Quote
    When does she plan on retiring? Other sources of income such as Pensions/Social Security? I'm assuming the $48,000 she is looking for annually from retirement includes those sources? She probably shouldn't have been knee high in stocks at that age but I also think it may not be the best time to pull out of stocks and start moving into bonds. The yields are going to start going up, you are already seeing it in the yield curves and I feel its going to get worse with the government spending its way out of this recession. If she still has 17 years until she retires (assuming she waits until her SS is maxed which would be a very smart move with those kinds of losses) I think she may be able to pull off a 90% stock to 10% bond mix, and slowly start moving over into bonds and safe dividend paying stocks in a few years.
  •  05-06-2009, 10:27 PM 55217 in reply to 55206

    Re: Right Allocations for her age???

    Reply Quote
    Even most optimally, 90% stocks for someone her age is a crap shoot. Again, without having any other info on her situation. Maybe she has another source of income we're not counting, which, if its a fixed payment, we could consider as being "fixed-income" insofar as this excersize goes.

    But if you put a 50 year old 90% into stocks, you might as well put her 100% into stocks, which ANY financial service rep would likely get censured for (i'm sure the other previous poster will correct me if I'm wrong).

    She got hit bad. That sucks. So did a lot of other people. But to double down now is just foolish, sure things might go up and you can look like a genious. Or they fall back down to their previous lows and she loses another 25% of her assets.

    Best route forward to my mind is to establish a portfolio that fits someone of her age, income, etc, and work to enlarge it, she has plenty of years ahead to let it grow, but protecting principal has to rank up there in her priorities.
  •  05-07-2009, 2:01 PM 55267 in reply to 55217

    Re: Right Allocations for her age???

    Reply Quote

    lucasjkr:
    Even most optimally, 90% stocks for someone her age is a crap shoot. Again, without having any other info on her situation. Maybe she has another source of income we're not counting, which, if its a fixed payment, we could consider as being "fixed-income" insofar as this excersize goes.

    But if you put a 50 year old 90% into stocks, you might as well put her 100% into stocks, which ANY financial service rep would likely get censured for (i'm sure the other previous poster will correct me if I'm wrong).

    She got hit bad. That sucks. So did a lot of other people. But to double down now is just foolish, sure things might go up and you can look like a genious. Or they fall back down to their previous lows and she loses another 25% of her assets.

    Best route forward to my mind is to establish a portfolio that fits someone of her age, income, etc, and work to enlarge it, she has plenty of years ahead to let it grow, but protecting principal has to rank up there in her priorities.


    People tend to get wiped out when they double-down; it is a very dangerous proposition. I do think that bonds will go down in value, but you need them as part of a diversified portfolio; it is essential to have more intermediate and short-term bonds as well as inflation and corporate bonds to hedge against interest rate increases.


    Stocks (equities) are essential to have in any portfolio. I define stocks as anything of substantial risk and not just ownership within a company. Thus, I would consider commodities, real estate, currencies, and high-yield bonds to be considered as part of the equity percentage of your portfolio, rather than fixed income.

    Aqua
  •  05-09-2009, 5:44 PM 55374 in reply to 55187

    Re: Right Allocations for her age???

    Reply Quote
    Are any of you attempting to provide the "cure" for this problem, 50 years old or older? First and foremost, do not trust a "crock" broker. They use formulas to box us into "their" box to benefit them. Tonymac1000, open an account for your mother.  Move her money to this account. You obviously are attempting to work the stock market or you would not be here. Set her account to put her money in something that produces dividends. Be the good son and check it every month. In 12 years or so, she will retire, if still employed. Buy something that gives her a "MONTHLY" dividend. And keep buying it. That way she will have "CASH" coming to her every month, or re-investing in what will provide her with future cash. What you folks need to understand, when you hit 62 or so, you don't need growth, you need cash. When you retire with your load of stocks, they have to turn into cash sometime. If you set this up right, and there are stocks that do this, when she reaches 62 or 65, she will have enough shares to supplement her social security, assumming we have SS then. You young folks have time for something to grow. We older folks don't have the time. Unless we spend our free time playing the market. I have grand babies that I like to spend my free time with, not the market.

  •  05-09-2009, 7:46 PM 55375 in reply to 55374

    Re: Right Allocations for her age???

    Reply Quote
    Some of the riskiest assets involve dividend-paying stocks; many dividend stocks decided to take away their dividend this year. Stocks grow because of dividends or capital appreciation. Also, I never asked about retirement since it is not a reasonable goal at this time. However, with diligence, $1,000 per month can get you there in 16-20 years, which isn't that bad considering the likelihood of living well up to 90 years old. We not only live older, but we also live better than we used to. I think most of us want to spend the money in our 70s so we can enjoy the money and that's the reason why I believe an immediate annuity may actually make sense to provide you a monthly budget and if you can afford it, a CPI-inflation adjusted immediate annuity as well as long-term care insurance is important.

    A stock with a good balance sheet is better than a stock with a good dividend. However, even a stock with a good dividend that has a much slower growth rate will see a dramatic drop in the stock price (i.e. JCP suffered an 80% loss). It's just that a stock with a good balance sheet has the cash to pay the dividend.

    Aqua
  •  05-09-2009, 9:02 PM 55377 in reply to 55375

    Re: Right Allocations for her age???

    Reply Quote
    Hmmmm... in one discussion, you note that people approaching retirement should be 50-70% in stocks, in another, you note that they're some of the riskiest assets. Unless you're meaning only "dividend-paying stocks" are the risky assets, and non-dividend paying stocks are somehow safer.
  •  05-10-2009, 1:45 AM 55384 in reply to 55377

    Re: Right Allocations for her age???

    Reply Quote
    In this case, it is so far off the mark; the advisor has her in 94% stocks so it is important to make adjustments over time to correct the problem and minimize the damage (to the downside as well as missing the potential upside).

    A portfolio of between 40-67% stocks and 33-60% bonds is a good current portfolio (not counting the $5K emergency fund). It is vital that she works towards a 40% stock portfolio for retirement, thus this may be accomplished by dropping the portfolio by 0-1% in a bad year and 1-5% in a good year; dropping the percentage by 5% might occur lets say when we recover losses on the S&P (reach 1,550 to 1,600 in the S&P). In irrationally exuberant markets where the Fed Funds rate exceeds 5%, the PE is above 24, and you had more than a 30% gain, it might be best to drop the portfolio below 40% stocks (such as to 30% stocks); the problem is missing out on potential gains to the upside (i.e. look at the 1980s and 1990s for the importance of a long-term strategy vs. market timing).

    lucasjkr:
    Hmmmm... in one discussion, you note that people approaching retirement should be 50-70% in stocks, in another, you note that they're some of the riskiest assets. Unless you're meaning only "dividend-paying stocks" are the risky assets, and non-dividend paying stocks are somehow safer.


    LOL. They're two entirely different posts! One is so general and this one is more specific. Neither is advice; they are merely suggestions intended for a mass-audience. This is a more specific scenario whereby I have the person's assets picture, but even this case isn't advice. I don't have the person's risk tolerance, financial history, and family information to render a decision; in other words, I don't have the face-to-face conversation that's necessary. Seeing a fee-only planner is an excellent idea; it is worth an hourly fee to come up with a plan of how to save $1K per month and meeting with an NFCC counselor first is a great idea. I'm hoping they will follow thru with the plan to see a financial planner.

    Unfortunately, Lucas is confusing suggestions with advice; it is not prudent to trust without independent personal research anything you see on the Internet. Even though stocks are some of the riskiest assets because of the potential they can go to zero, they should be a part of everyone's portfolio. I think a mixture of consistent dividend payers with good balance sheets and cash-flow statements are great stocks, but that some stocks that pay excessively high dividends are unable to maintain those dividends.

    Resources such as SmartMoney, Morningstar, and Yahoo Finance are great resources.

    I find dividend-payers that don't have the balance sheet and cash-flow statement are even more risky than other stocks, but I have always believed that stocks are a necessary risk of everyone's portfolio. That said, last year taught novice (and even experienced) investors that stocks were risky and that's a good benefit. I think people should use high dividends (above 7.5%) as a potential red flag, but realize that all stocks have substantial risks and that they are still necessary assets in a portfolio.

    Should a portfolio contain non-dividend paying stocks? It all depends on the person. These tend to be riskier than dividend-paying stocks, but one should be wary of excessively high dividends. I feel people own these stocks when they are looking for growth. As a value investor, I have a lot of dividend-oriented stocks and love them. But high dividends scare me away since they have a higher probability of being cut.

    Aqua
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