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Zecco.com » General Investing » Options Trading » Options Question
Last post 05-17-2008, 11:23 PM by Angell. 5 replies.
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  •  05-14-2008, 9:11 PM 29109

    Options Question

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    I've been trying to learn about options. My question is do option prices move a larger amount compared to the actual stock move, the closer to its expiration or the further out, or what actually determines that? Thanks again for the help
  •  05-14-2008, 9:51 PM 29111 in reply to 29109

    Re: Options Question

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    Options price move huge all the time. Does not actually matter whether you are near or far from the expiration date. Typically if the stock moves 1% options move about 20%. So only if you have guts to swallow the volatility, should you do the options. 
  •  05-14-2008, 11:39 PM 29112 in reply to 29109

    Re: Options Question

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    Firefyter51:
    I've been trying to learn about options. My question is do option prices move a larger amount compared to the actual stock move, the closer to its expiration or the further out, or what actually determines that? Thanks again for the help


    A must read if you want to trade options is "Options Volatility and Pricing."   It will cover your question and many many more.  But don't stop with this book.  You should try to read several books to get lot's of perspectives. 

    Option price can move a lot and do it very quickly. Consider this:
    XYZ Stock @ $100/share
    Jun 105 Calls @  $6.00/contract

    Let us say you buy the above call for $6.00 and the  volatility is @ 50%   If the next day the volatility drops to 25% and the stock price stays exactly where it was the day before, your call would likely be worth around $3.00.  That's a 50% decline.   The stock price hasn't moved but you now have a 50% loss on paper.  If the stock doesn't start to move up significantly and/or the volatility doesn't also rise back up to 50%, you will likely loose most of your $600.   You may think a large decline in vol. is unlikely but it happens a lot around earnings time. 

    Be careful out there and keep your trades small. 




    -Sean
  •  05-15-2008, 11:12 PM 29191 in reply to 29112

    Re: Options Question

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    Sean

    With regards to volatility is that the amount that the stock moves up or down, or what is that in regards to? Also, where do I find out about the volatility of a certain stock? Thanks

  •  05-17-2008, 6:10 PM 29291 in reply to 29191

    Re: Options Question

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    Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility are the two main types.  IV is the one most people pay attention to.  Yes it does refer to the movement up and down of a stock including how often  it moves and  the range  it tends to swing.   The more  it moves, the higher the vol. will be and thus the more expensive the option will be.   If you read the book I mentioned, it goes into detail about the effects of vol. on option prices.



    -Sean
  •  05-17-2008, 11:23 PM 29293 in reply to 29109

    Re: Options Question

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    Firefyter51,

    Ceterus paribus, an option that is closer to expiration will mimic the change in price of the underlying security more closely than an option that is further from expiration. This is the case because as an option approaches maturity a larger portion of the options value is determined by its intrinsic value (i.e. the difference between the strike price and the stock price), rather than its time value. However, if we relax this assumption then the question becomes a little more complicated because it is influenced by the six option pricing factors: stock price, strike price, volatility, expected dividends, time to expiration, and the risk free rate. Luckily, however, academics have examined this topic in depth and have coined the concept the options delta, which is literally the ratio of the change in option price over the change in stock price.  We can retrieve an options delta from the Black-Scholes Pricing formula. The delta for a European call option is as follows:

                                                                                             Delta Call = N(d1)

    where:

    N = Cumulative normal distribution, (this can be obtained from table or by using the NORMSDIST() function in excel)

    d1 = (ln(S/K)+(r+v^2/s)*T)/(v*sqrt(T))

    where

    ln  = natural log

    S = current stock price

    K = option strike price

    r = risk free rate

    v = standard deviation or volatility

    T = time to expiration

    sqrt = square root

     

    For a put option it can be expreseed as

                                                                                                Delta Put = N(d1) - 1

     

    With this information we can actually calculate precisely what you are asking. For example, the Oracle Sep 08 $15 Call currently trades for $7/option. The price of Oracle at the close on Friday was $21.68. The 3-month T-Bill current yields 1.8% and the implied volatility is 58.09%. The option matures in roughly four months or 1/3 of a year (tecnically four months and a week).  Plugging this information into the formula above we discover that the options delta is 0.90 Thus, if the price of Oracle stock increases from $21.68 to $22.68, or $1. Then we should expect the option price to increase by $0.90 to $7.0. Let's see what happens if we adjust the maturity to 1 month or 1/12 of a year  and leave all other factors constant. If we do this the delta of the option increase to 0.988. This implies that changes in the option price more closel mimic changes in the the stock price as the option approaches maturity, which is consistent with what I said before. Notice, however that over time deltas change and as the underlying variables change the detla also changes. Thus, at any given time the change in option price in relation to the change in stock price will be different.

    Hope this helps. If you have any more questions please feel free to ask.

    Angell

     

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