I definetely agree with you about the increased presence of HD affecting Nintendo's sales of the Wii.  Sony, LG, Sharp, and smaller discount brands will all be reducing prices dramatically in the coming year. (http://gizmodo.com/385729/dealzmodo-ahoy-hdtvs-will-get-stupid-cheap-next-month)  And even though I don't know if the 360 will adopt Blu Ray, just the fact that there is only one HD format should also spur the buying of HD Television sets and players.  

But, I also don't think the Wii is marketed so much in terms of an 'all-in-one' entertainment center, as is the 360 or PS3, but rather as a one-of-a-kind interface that appeals to a much wider audience than the more hard-core gamers that the 360 and PS3 target.  Its much lower cost also helps to rationalize the purchase of an additional Blu Ray Player.  And by the looks of the following graph, the demand for Wii's is still strong, and with so many consoles already sold there will continue to be a strong demand for their games.

mgrass:

I definetely agree with you about the increased presence of HD affecting Nintendo's sales of the Wii.  Sony, LG, Sharp, and smaller discount brands will all be reducing prices dramatically in the coming year. (http://gizmodo.com/385729/dealzmodo-ahoy-hdtvs-will-get-stupid-cheap-next-month)  And even though I don't know if the 360 will adopt Blu Ray, just the fact that there is only one HD format should also spur the buying of HD Television sets and players.  

But, I also don't think the Wii is marketed so much in terms of an 'all-in-one' entertainment center, as is the 360 or PS3, but rather as a one-of-a-kind interface that appeals to a much wider audience than the more hard-core gamers that the 360 and PS3 target.  Its much lower cost also helps to rationalize the purchase of an additional Blu Ray Player.  And by the looks of the following graph, the demand for Wii's is still strong, and with so many consoles already sold there will continue to be a strong demand for their games.

  

I agree that it is still strong. A few analysts have stated that one wont be able to just walk into a store and pick up a wii until early to mid 2009. PS3 comes with a bluray player and the ps3 is, within 20 dollars, the cheapest bluray player out there. why wouldnt people buy a ps3? The people buying ps3s are buing it for 2 purposes now. The PS2 was being bought for its dvd player capabilities at launch so i can see the ps3 killing nintendo's wii in monthly sales in the next few years. Nintendo has releaed a technologically inferior product and because of that I personally think there will be a Wii 2 by november 2010. If there is a wii 2 in 2010 sony couldnt follow suit because of the massive losses they took at the beginning of the generation and the lack of profit on every system to date. basically.. i think nintendo will start to "lag" in mid 09 allowing the others to creep up moderately prior to the release of wii 2. The only thing the wii is doing better than the other guys is their version of the downloadable games. sony and micrsoft wanted to take a bigger cut out of the profits and give the developer a minority share of the profits whereas nintendo is enabling companies to make games for thier system offering more profit per game sold. nintendo should be buying up companies with the huge profit theyve earned from selling their wiis so that they can have exclusive killer non mario games on the system... like a gta caliber game or something. gta 4 is going to sell 10 million by the end of the year and a lot of tohse games will sell xbox 360s and ps3s. bottom line: nintendo needs to start doing stuff for the hardcore! they have the casual market.. heck they have effectively shattered the age barrier on video games but tjhey arent nearly getting as many hardcore gamers as the others are getting. I just wish theyd try to appeal to all the masses.

mgrass:

I definetely agree with you about the increased presence of HD affecting Nintendo's sales of the Wii.  Sony, LG, Sharp, and smaller discount brands will all be reducing prices dramatically in the coming year. (http://gizmodo.com/385729/dealzmodo-ahoy-hdtvs-will-get-stupid-cheap-next-month)  And even though I don't know if the 360 will adopt Blu Ray, just the fact that there is only one HD format should also spur the buying of HD Television sets and players.  

But, I also don't think the Wii is marketed so much in terms of an 'all-in-one' entertainment center, as is the 360 or PS3, but rather as a one-of-a-kind interface that appeals to a much wider audience than the more hard-core gamers that the 360 and PS3 target.  Its much lower cost also helps to rationalize the purchase of an additional Blu Ray Player.  And by the looks of the following graph, the demand for Wii's is still strong, and with so many consoles already sold there will continue to be a strong demand for their games.

  

Chrisr84:

I agree that it is still strong. A few analysts have stated that one wont be able to just walk into a store and pick up a wii until early to mid 2009. PS3 comes with a bluray player and the ps3 is, within 20 dollars, the cheapest bluray player out there. why wouldnt people buy a ps3? The people buying ps3s are buing it for 2 purposes now. The PS2 was being bought for its dvd player capabilities at launch so i can see the ps3 killing nintendo's wii in monthly sales in the next few years. Nintendo has releaed a technologically inferior product and because of that I personally think there will be a Wii 2 by november 2010. If there is a wii 2 in 2010 sony couldnt follow suit because of the massive losses they took at the beginning of the generation and the lack of profit on every system to date. basically.. i think nintendo will start to "lag" in mid 09 allowing the others to creep up moderately prior to the release of wii 2. The only thing the wii is doing better than the other guys is their version of the downloadable games. sony and micrsoft wanted to take a bigger cut out of the profits and give the developer a minority share of the profits whereas nintendo is enabling companies to make games for thier system offering more profit per game sold. nintendo should be buying up companies with the huge profit theyve earned from selling their wiis so that they can have exclusive killer non mario games on the system... like a gta caliber game or something. gta 4 is going to sell 10 million by the end of the year and a lot of tohse games will sell xbox 360s and ps3s. bottom line: nintendo needs to start doing stuff for the hardcore! they have the casual market.. heck they have effectively shattered the age barrier on video games but tjhey arent nearly getting as many hardcore gamers as the others are getting. I just wish theyd try to appeal to all the masses.

I agree on your PS3 + Bluray vs. straight blue ray comparison. I recently picked up a Wii after looking for 2 months on and off. The stores (mainly Target) have had more in stock as the news about a bad economy has come out. They are still getting bought but not at the rampid pace they were. They AREN'T for everyone. My wife and I bought one for entertainment reasons not for "gaming reasons."

I am afraid the product life cycle of the WII will be a steep drop off the back end. The average product life cycle of a gaming console is ~ 4 years. They are 2+ years into the Wii and sales are still going strong. By extending the product life cycle they will not have to discount the price but the drop at the end will be steep.

As far as the stock goes, I think I am 2 years too late.

The Wii Price is lower then the X-Box and PS3. Of course they are different platforms.

aquaswim47:

The HD is definitely a component of buying a Wii.  I think the Wii is a high-quality product, but that its high price could become a problem; it's difficult to evaluate this stock since it's on pink sheets and doesn't have an ADR tied to a major index.