jackg1606:Whew, $132 oil!!
That should throw water on the flames of an economic recovery.
"Dude! Where's my economic recovery?"
Was the market forward looking when the S&P broke above 1400?
You're onto something with the $133 oil, but I disagree with you that this time around that it will mean the US will not be the superpower. I think that would require more than a severe recession and that there would need to be a move of the century that had a major reshuffling of large and small caps. That's when small businesses emerge (out of desperation) and large businesses fail at a breakneck pace due to rising inventories and extreme consumer disinterest.
Study the 1929 depression, 1989 Japan, and 2008 China and contrast them with the moderate to severe recessions in 1974, 1981, 2000, and 2007. 1991 had an increase in the value of stocks during that recession. I think you will find that the depression really involved more than one type of recession, thus it takes a lot of factors occurring at once, including overly priced markets and the perception that everything's working well (prior to the crash). I don't think it's likely to enter such a severe recession in a mindset of utter contempt and mis-priced emotion as we have currently. However, I'm very happy with your success as a person who shorted the market; at least the success you've had up to date. Good luck.
Aqua