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Zecco.com » Market Commentary » Outlooks & Trends » Major Top On SP500
Last post 07-08-2009, 8:06 AM by aquaswim47. 54 replies.
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  •  06-16-2009, 11:58 AM 58961

    Major Top On SP500

    Reply Quote
    Today the market is looking weak after struggling to push higher early on.  It now looks like it may be in wave 5 of 1 of 1 of 5 of P3.  There still hasn't been a confirmation of a top being made but the market is indicating this to be the case so far. 

    A break below yesterdays low would be additional indication of this top with the ultimate confirmation being a break below the 875-880 support zone.

    If you want to participate in shorting the market it may be better to wait for this 5 of 1 of 1 of 5 of P3 to complete.  Once this happens, a 50-62% retracement back to the 956 area would be possible during 2 of 1 of 5 of P3.  This would be a safe spot to dump long positions and to enter short positions.  If this is 5 of 1 of 1 of 5 of P3 then the downside target will be around 910-915.  At that point we should see a 3 wave cycle retracement of 50-62% back up to 956 (930-940 area).

    Note:  For now it is best to be in cash until this 5 wave pattern down can give some degree of confirmation of the top being in (a lower low than yesterday).

  •  06-16-2009, 2:45 PM 58975 in reply to 58961

    Re: Major Top On SP500

    Reply Quote
    We have an extremely clear 5 wave pattern down from 956 which is starting to build a very strong case for 956 being the top.  We should be just about ready to start a 3 wave pattern move back up which should retrace to 930-940 area before the next 5 wave series down begins.  This move back up can extend all the way back up to the top but should not make a new high without invalidating the P2 top.

    When these 3 waves up complete you had better close your long positions or you will regret it later.



    Note:  All of the above assumes P2 has topped and the next 5 wave series down will result in breaking the 875 level.

  •  06-16-2009, 4:16 PM 58986 in reply to 58975

    Re: Major Top On SP500

    Reply Quote
    Yuck!  That was an ugly close....maybe this fifth wave isn't finished yet.  There could be a little more downside before the 3 wave correction up gets started.

  •  06-16-2009, 10:20 PM 59018 in reply to 58986

    Re: Major Top On SP500

    Reply Quote
    Ok, this series of waves down is almost complete.  The 200 DMA is currently at 208.  It would seem to fit for this fifth wave to end at the 200 DMA.  So, from the 200 we should bounce and the wave form coming off that bounce should give us insight as to whether 956 is the peak.  A 3 wave move up which fails to make a new high would be the bearish scenario.  However, a five wave move up would be a more bullish scenario which should result in a new high (and a completion of this C wave to end P2).

  •  06-17-2009, 10:11 AM 59030 in reply to 59018

    Re: Major Top On SP500

    Reply Quote
    Today I'm taking FAS for a ride....in at 8.75. 


    UPDATE(3:21ET):  So far this bounce off the 200 has been lame.  I was expecting something a little more meaningful.  It will be lucky to make it back to 925.

  •  06-17-2009, 10:32 PM 59081 in reply to 59030

    Re: Major Top On SP500

    Reply Quote
    Oh yeah, there's support at the 200 day moving average, around 910.  And resistance at 950.  Which one will we test next?  Hmmm

  •  06-18-2009, 1:56 AM 59086 in reply to 59081

    Re: Major Top On SP500

    Reply Quote
    Bloominonion:
    Oh yeah, there's support at the 200 day moving average, around 910.  And resistance at 950.  Which one will we test next?  Hmmm


    A likely scenario would be to bounce from here to about the 925-930 area then reverse and bust 875.  A close below 875 will confirm the top at 956. 

  •  06-18-2009, 6:55 AM 59092 in reply to 59086

    Re: Major Top On SP500

    Reply Quote
    Think it should stop at S & P 500 900 level or 899. Since that the correction that the it was asking for, based on the technical inspections. 

  •  06-18-2009, 10:39 AM 59101 in reply to 59092

    Re: Major Top On SP500

    Reply Quote
    Sold FAS @ 9.10.  Bought SKF @ 43.50 

    Gonna pick up some SRS and SDS too...I think it's a safe bet to short just about anything in sight.

  •  06-19-2009, 2:51 AM 59149 in reply to 59101

    Re: Major Top On SP500

    Reply Quote
    We are now in what appears to be a wave 2 ABC correction.  Once C completes the next move would be a wave 3 down.  The wave 3 should form another set of five waves down and another channel which will look the same as the five waves which form wave 1 on the chart.  Sorry, you may need to scroll right to see the entire chart or you can click on it to enlarge.

    Photobucket

  •  06-20-2009, 12:53 PM 59224 in reply to 59149

    Re: Major Top On SP500

    Reply Quote
    It looks like the c and green 2 completed as I have noted on my chart.  The next move is down where 900 and 875 areas will be tested.  Unless support is found at these areas then the 956 top looks like the peak of P2.  If support is found then expect a large zigzag back up possibly to a new high. 

  •  06-21-2009, 6:17 AM 59240 in reply to 59101

    Re: Major Top On SP500

    Reply Quote

     

    Sure you are , try using www.covestor.com 

     

     

     

     

    Trader Jack:
    Sold FAS @ 9.10.  Bought SKF @ 43.50 

    Gonna pick up some SRS and SDS too...I think it's a safe bet to short just about anything in sight.

  •  06-22-2009, 7:58 AM 59283 in reply to 59240

    Re: Major Top On SP500

    Reply Quote
    50 DMA is about to cross above the 200 DMA.  When this happens expect everybody to have an orgasm and shoot this thing higher....maybe to a new high....have to wait and see.  If the orgasm is a minor one then maybe we are able to break through 875.  Getting below 875, the bulls will be in a world of hurt.

  •  06-26-2009, 10:09 AM 59538 in reply to 59283

    Re: Major Top On SP500

    Reply Quote

     

     

    Lol lol lol  ROFLOL LMAO not quite sure if I am LOL at you or with you....

     

     

     

    Trader Jack:
    50 DMA is about to cross above the 200 DMA.  When this happens expect everybody to have an orgasm and shoot this thing higher....maybe to a new high....have to wait and see.  If the orgasm is a minor one then maybe we are able to break through 875.  Getting below 875, the bulls will be in a world of hurt.

  •  06-26-2009, 10:11 AM 59539 in reply to 59538

    Re: Major Top On SP500

    Reply Quote

     

     

     

    1. trend line broken
    2. lower high in an uptrend, or a higher low in a downtrend.
    3. break below the previous low in an uptrend, or above the previous high in a downtrend

    At point 3 the reversal is confirmed and everybody's brother is getting short. 

    A stop run often follows to re-test the penetration at point 3. 

    Quicker traders may get short at the X, or even closer to the 2 based on other indicators (divergence, Fibonacci retracement, Bollinger band touch, etc.)


    		  
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