Main question is any advice. The daily charts have not been very forgiving for me but, I have found some gems to make quick profits on 15 minute charts. Based on all the stuff I have access to if these next two weeks don't show as bull the bears will rule this year.

You judge a full year trend by 1 month? I wasn't trading during 1990-2000 but one month does not a trend make. The first half of 08 will be rough, but the bull will surface towards the end. Fear is rampant, that history tells me when everyone is heading for the hills, I should take their houses!!!

Good Luck,
Scott
http://www.advancedtrendanalysis.com

scottyf11:

You judge a full year trend by 1 month? I wasn't trading during 1990-2000 but one month does not a trend make. The first half of 08 will be rough, but the bull will surface towards the end. Fear is rampant, that history tells me when everyone is heading for the hills, I should take their houses!!!

Good Luck,
Scott
http://www.advancedtrendanalysis.com

Historically if by the last week of this month we don't have a bullish trend the year will be bearish. Under normal cirsumstances it should start this week toward a bullish trend. I'm simply looking at facts based on history and nothing more.

Hello scottyf11 I don't get it ?

The market goes down one day then one week then one month and so on and so on.

Then the market goes up one day then one week then one month then so and so on.

That is what the market does no matter what you or anyone else thinks or say's .The trend is my friend and it should be yours also.

Good luck

blaster:

Hello scottyf11 I don't get it ?

The market goes down one day then one week then one month and so on and so on.

Then the market goes up one day then one week then one month then so and so on.

That is what the market does no matter what you or anyone else thinks or say's .The trend is my friend and it should be yours also.

Good luck

Hrmm I seem to see the market going down for a couple days, then a day up or two, then down for a couple more days, then a day or two up. Trends can last 5 minutes or 15 years,however, what I was saying was that just because the market may end down for January, the trend (2002-now) is up. This is a correction, not a bear market.

Good Luck,
Scott
http://www.advancedtrendanalysis.com

I remember 2000 for the Nasdaq, September 11th for both, and, August thru October 2002 for Dow and SP 500 and this is nothing in comparison; that market had two major presipitious drops and this doesn't even come close in comparison. It is important to always look at valuation.

2002 wasn't a picnic because while unemployment had been rising, the market had rebounded somewhat and then crashed again.

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Aqua

Hello scottyf11

So I guess bear markets start out from thin air.

Good luck

2002 was no picnic either, lol.

I thought this article on Bespoke today gave a pretty good synopsis of what we might expect. They note that the average bear market since WWII has been 393 days in length with average decline of 30%. Compare that to where we're at and it would appear we've got a ways to go ;)

http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/

blaster:

Hello scottyf11

So I guess bear markets start out from thin air.

Good luck

Actually, Yes. Bear markets start when stocks are significantly overpriced. It happened in 29, and it happened in 2000. When stocks indicies start to trade at P/E that are way above the market norm, there is bound to be a bear market. This year stocks are still cheap. The SP is trading at a P/E of about 16. I believe in 2000 it was 26 or something. So yes, Bear markets do start out in thin air (markets through the roof)

Good Luck,
Scott
http://www.advancedtrendanalysis.com

Hello scottyf11

It is about time you understand something I was trying to say.

:-]

Good luck

Anyone still looking to discuss the trend?  Over one month and we are still headed down.  Only thing is I find it hard to believe our current politicians would do anything to keep the economy happy as this is an election year.  It would not look good as a Republican to have a bad economy year with an election looming.  Keep cutting the interest rate and the dollar will keep sinking while oil and commodities reach all time highs.

It doesn't matter to me. I'm holding Ultrashort proshares until it's time to reverse.

The panic was rampant after 9/11 and no one had a good idea where the market was headed. In January 2002, everyone thought the problems were over, but it was in fact a bear market rally. Had you dollar-cost averaged upward, you still would have gotten hammered hard. From March of 2002 to October of 2002, people thought the end was in sight while the market kept creeping lower. The Nasdaq was the only thing that declined from March 2000 to October 2002 because it was so overvalued. The blue-chip Dow had ups and downs with the most severe drop occuring during September and October of 2002.

To have a severe drop like we had in 1929 or what happened in Japan in 1989, you need both a consumer recession (like we had now and in 1991), a housing crisis, an employment drop (like we had in 2000-2002), high interest rates (like we had in 2000 and 1987), and finally an irrationally exuberant market (like we had in 2000, Japan had in 1989, China had in 2007, and we had in 1929).

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Aqua

To be honest, I have not been too worried in this bear market.  This week has been interesting.  Alot of bad news.  It probably will continue on toward the end of the week, with the release of the biege book, unemployment claims on Thursday, and employment numbers on Friday.  One positive is Ambac getting the money it needs.  I am still beating the major indices.  There has been good "sales" this week.  That's what makes a bear market interesting.  Look at Monsanto.  It was down 10 points today.  Last month, Agrium went from $72 to $50, and now it is back to the $73 range.

I'll believe we are in a bear market when the S&P 500 has trade below 1270, and is facing resistance at that level.

Good Luck,
Scott
S&P 500 Trend