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Last post 04-26-2008, 3:02 AM by mabceo. 7 replies.
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  •  04-10-2008, 4:41 PM 26770

    Long on TIN

    Reply Quote
    what do you guys think of TIN (Temple In-land)? It is going down everyday and looks like a good buy to me.
  •  04-10-2008, 4:46 PM 26771 in reply to 26770

    Re: Long on TIN

    Reply Quote
    Apparently Jim Cramer was bullish on TIN on 04/08/2008

    http://seekingalpha.com/
  •  04-10-2008, 5:09 PM 26779 in reply to 26771

    Re: Long on TIN

    Reply Quote
    From MorningStar

    by
    Daniel Rohr, CFA
    Thesis 03-04-2008

    We had long puzzled over the strategic rationale for housing a savings bank and a packaging manufacturer under the same corporate roof. Temple-Inland's spin off of Guaranty Financial to shareholders (along with the Forestar real estate segment) put an end to our bewilderment. We think the company's packaging and forest products businesses should benefit from the improved strategic focus afforded by independent operation.

    As part of the massive overhaul, Temple-Inland sold 1.55 million acres of timberland to The Campbell Group for $2.38 billion. The sale seems to have been particularly well timed given the insatiable interest institutional investors have in this asset class. The attractive price per acre bears this out. Aftertax proceeds from this value-unlocking transaction were around $1.8 billion, the bulk of which was returned to shareholders in the form of a hefty special dividend. Management put the remainder of the receipts toward some much-needed debt reduction. As the outlook for both packaging and wood products remains uncertain, we think this financial breathing room may manifest as an important competitive advantage versus more-leveraged competitors, such as Smurfit-Stone caseConvert('SSCC')SSCC, particularly if the future is more challenging than expected.

    Once upon a time, corrugated box demand could be expected to closely track U.S. economic growth, but the trend has broken this decade, with box shipments lagging the gross-domestic-product trajectory. Several developments have contributed to the divergence, but the largest factor has been the U.S. manufacturing trade deficit. Simply put, reduced output means fewer products to ship and weaker demand for boxes. The flip side, of course, is the Asian manufacturing boom, which has contributed to a surge in demand for boxes in that region. Asian containerboard producers have rapidly increased capacity to meet this demand, nearly doubling production levels in 10 years, blowing past U.S. output in 2002, and severely curtailing U.S. export opportunities in the process.

    Clearly, the outlook for U.S. boxmakers appears far from rosy, though the weak U.S. dollar, a significant boon for Temple-Inland's customers, should provide some relief. Ironically, Temple-Inland may also see some upside from the otherwise troubling ascendance of Chinese boxmakers. One knock-on effect of Chinese capacity growth has been surging demand for old corrugated containers (OCC), which serve as the primary input in Chinese containerboard production because of tree scarcity. OCC prices have skyrocketed accordingly. Fortunately for Temple-Inland, its facilities use relatively less OCC than certain competitors, buffering the firm against rising OCC prices and providing an important cost advantage in an industry with depressingly thin margins.

  •  04-10-2008, 5:10 PM 26780 in reply to 26779

    Re: Long on TIN

    Reply Quote

    Valuation

    Our fair value estimate for Temple-Inland is $18 per share. We forecast sales growth of 3.6% in 2008 on flat sales volumes accompanied by higher selling prices in the packaging business. We expect relatively healthy operating margins around 8.8%, as strength in packaging offsets continued weakness in forest products. Our model assumes a rebound in the U.S. housing market in late 2009, driving strong revenue growth through 2011 and offsetting our expectation of somewhat weaker packaging prices in those years. Key midcycle price assumptions include $512 per ton of unbleached kraft linerboard and a Random Lengths Dimensional Lumber Composite price of $377. As with most commodity-producing companies, our fair value estimate for Temple-Inland is very sensitive to commodity price assumptions. For example, raising our lumber price by 10% in all years adds $3 to our fair value estimate, reflecting the substantial operating leverage at play.


    Risk

    Risks to Temple-Inland's manufacturing operations include volatile commodity prices, sustained high raw-material and energy costs, reduced U.S. manufacturing output, and environmental regulations.


    Growth

    Forest products sales increased rapidly during the housing boom because of price and volume increases, but they dropped at a similar rate when it ended. Growth rates in the corrugated packaging segment have been steadier, averaging a healthy 4% during the last few years; they remain on pace to continue at a similar clip.

    Profitability

    The corrugated packaging segment's profitability increased from 4.2% in 2005 to 9.4% in 2007 because of rising commodity prices and effective cost-control initiatives. We expect the unit's margins to widen further in 2008, before retracting in 2009 as linerboard and corrugating medium market prices sink. The forest products segment turned in 20%-plus operating margins throughout the housing boom. We expect margins to remain weak in 2008 before recovering to 10% in 2009.

    Financial Health

    The debt-reduction initiative enabled by Temple-Inland's timberland sale greatly improves the company's financial health, reducing the debt/capital ratio to a more comfortable level and affording more breathing room from an interest-coverage perspective.

  •  04-10-2008, 9:39 PM 26793 in reply to 26780

    Re: Long on TIN

    Reply Quote

    Yes everything seems rosy.

    Even Citibank recommends a "Buy" rating.

    I am puzzled that the day Jim Cramer suggested this stock, its been going downhill.

     

  •  04-11-2008, 3:04 PM 26825 in reply to 26793

    Re: Long on TIN

    Reply Quote
    I like it.  Usually with cramer stocks, they jump when he recommends, then fall for the next week, then they start their real ascent.  Of course this assumes he nailed it which could be a question mark.  I always take what he sasy with a grain of salt and of course you should never take what anyone says as gold.  Having said that, on this one, I liked his rational for investion and think this decline makes the stock more attractive.  I bought in today on the weakness.  Love the fact the Icahn has taken over the board.
  •  04-16-2008, 3:30 PM 27196 in reply to 26825

    Re: Long on TIN

    Reply Quote
    Yes today it has started to go up. Good i got some of it. Other forums predicting atleast $21 as the target price. Their earnings scheduled on April 26 or 28th.
  •  04-26-2008, 3:02 AM 27835 in reply to 26770

    Re: Long on TIN

    Reply Quote

    untill TIN crosses the 50 day moving average this stock will continue to go DOWN! if you bought get out now and wait for the cross and then a drop in price and if it stays above the 50 day moving average then BUY!

    - happy trading!

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