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Zecco.com » Advocate Pit » Horse Trading » Horse Trading 101 - July 2009
Last post 07-26-2009, 11:41 PM by JeremyAlan. 52 replies.
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  •  07-02-2009, 8:24 AM 59824

    Horse Trading 101 - July 2009

    Reply Quote
    Photobucket

  •  07-02-2009, 9:26 AM 59827 in reply to 59824

    Re: Horse Trading 101 - July 2009

    Reply Quote
    SPY weekly and daily charts show the same thing, SPY has been range-bound since May, between 870 and 950.  We're currently mid-range, and heading toward a retest of those boundaries or perhaps just drifting.
    VIX and SPXA50R are tepid, 26.22 and 59.8.  You need these to be at extreme levels to provide a signal, usually.  But I'm noting that they've NORMALIZED.  We were in the 90s for SPXA50R and well above 30 in the VIX, with the market crash and its aftermath throwing our compass out of wack.
    I would conclude its time to step aside, wait for SPXA50R and VIX to provide a clearer signal.
    As long as the market remains tepid, though, there are trading opportunities in BOTH the long and short direction.  Conclusion: Long or short is fine, or long/short, just don't expect a big single-direction move in this environment.

  •  07-03-2009, 9:17 AM 59860 in reply to 59827

    Re: Horse Trading 101 - July 2009

    Reply Quote
    When was the last time you had a nice hot bowl of weekly VIX?  Well, that's too long!!

  •  07-03-2009, 6:52 PM 59876 in reply to 59860

    Re: Horse Trading 101 - July 2009

    Reply Quote
    You know what this says?  Volatility has been steadily increasing since the fateful decision to remove the uptick rule and allow unlimited shorting.  I didn't put much stock in the uptick rule; but what else explains a secular bull market in volatility?

    A nice hot bowl of Vicks?  That'll open your nasal passages!

  •  07-03-2009, 7:00 PM 59877 in reply to 59876

    Kangaroo tail on SPY

    Reply Quote
    The bearish, upward pointing Kangaroo tail has poked its head out of the SPY daily chart Thursday.  A short-term bearish bias is warranted.  But, we're nearing the bottom of the channel (88) so I wouldn't predict an extended move down.

    And if you don't use stockcharts Gallery View, say hello to the trader's best friend. SPY

  •  07-03-2009, 7:20 PM 59879 in reply to 59877

    Covestor

    Reply Quote
    I'm now a member of Covestor.  Not because of blaster but I am experimenting with seeing how it effects my trading by having an open record.  If my trading improves because I am being more careful not to embarrass myself with careless decisions then Covestor works for me.  A big part of trading is fighting mental mistakes.  If I feel Covestor is causing mental mistakes then I will close it off.  So far, I am finding this not to be the case.

  •  07-04-2009, 12:32 PM 59923 in reply to 59877

    The Superiority of Technical Analysis

    Reply Quote
    A quote from the Sequoia Fund's managers, Richard Cunniff, Robert Goldfarb and David Poppe, in their letter to shareholders, May 22, 2009.

    "Valuing companies without knowing their earning power is like flying into a dense fog without instruments.
    In our many years of investing, we cannot remember a time when visibility was this low and estimating the
    intrinsic value of businesses was this challenging."

    In many cases, value investors will not resort to technical analysis.  Their antipathy to it is insurmountable.  That is a pity since technical analysis unlocks the rich information in price movements when fundamental analysis cannot.

    Using simple technical trading systems like chrib's, where you look for compressed candles in a tight consolidation (low risk setups) and buy these names with buy stops if and when they break out, coupled with risk management that cuts loses short, is a better approach than the Sequoia approach in the current environment.  Value investing does work.  It has stood the test of time.  But with even the best value investors currently rudderless the technical approach is the right way for now.

  •  07-05-2009, 9:03 PM 59968 in reply to 59923

    Re: The Superiority of Technical Analysis

    Reply Quote

     

     

     Don't forget to watch the video

    http://www.youtube.com/

  •  07-05-2009, 9:13 PM 59969 in reply to 59879

    Re: Covestor

    Reply Quote

     

    That's pretty thin if having a public track record takes away from my track record I will stop sharing my track record...Good luck to you Jack

     

    Trader Jack:
    I'm now a member of Covestor.  Not because of blaster but I am experimenting with seeing how it effects my trading by having an open record.  If my trading improves because I am being more careful not to embarrass myself with careless decisions then Covestor works for me.  A big part of trading is fighting mental mistakes.  If I feel Covestor is causing mental mistakes then I will close it off.  So far, I am finding this not to be the case.

  •  07-05-2009, 9:55 PM 59972 in reply to 59969

    Re: Covestor

    Reply Quote
    Blaster,

    Since you like to sling criticism, how about you open up your trading record so we will know whether any criticism should be directed at you.  Be brave blaster.  I would recommend Covestor to you.  You may find displaying your record will help you minimize your mistakes and make you more money.  You should at least give it a shot.  Us little guys need every edge we can get to make money in the market.

    This can be a very liberating thing to do kinda like nude streaking.


    Furthermore, you have made several posts here containing links to various market analysis resources.  How will we take any of these recommended resources you link to serious if we are unable to see exactly how well they have aided you.  If you want anyone to take your posts seriously then you should have an open record.

  •  07-05-2009, 10:41 PM 59973 in reply to 59968

    Re: The Superiority of Technical Analysis

    Reply Quote
    blaster:

     

     

     Don't forget to watch the video

    http://www.youtube.com/



    How do we know this guy is any help if we can't see how he has aided you.  Open up your trading record so we can see!!

  •  07-05-2009, 11:18 PM 59974 in reply to 59973

    Re: The Superiority of Technical Analysis

    Reply Quote

     

    Jack  if the video does not help you don't watch them.

     I don't post links here to show what those links have done for me but for what info they can provide to others and how they use it is up to them.

    Like this

    http://www.abnormalreturns.com/

     

     

     

     

    Trader Jack:
    blaster:

     

     Don't forget to watch the video

    http://www.youtube.com/



    How do we know this guy is any help if we can't see how he has aided you.  Open up your trading record so we can see!!

  •  07-06-2009, 12:26 AM 59975 in reply to 59973

    Benefits of sharing trades

    Reply Quote
    I think we can all benefit from sharing trades.  These are some of my thoughts:
    --Sharing shows your decision-making process (buy, sell, timing)
    --Sharing shows your results (is it working?)
    --Sharing shows you where you need to improve
    --Others can learn from your mistakes or successes

    On the downside, sharing opens you up to criticism.  Most people, being human, struggle with criticism.  There are also trolls on the zecco boards who pick and poke for no reason other than to satisfy their egos; in other words criticism can be constructive or non-constructive.

    If the trolls would put a sock in it, I think sharing could be useful for all of us endeavoring to improve our trading.

  •  07-06-2009, 2:29 AM 59986 in reply to 59975

    Re: Benefits of sharing trades

    Reply Quote
    Besides, Covestor is fun.  I like to explore other members on there for ideas and other interesting things.  I found this one member who goes by the name stockmarketbeat.  He is a CFA.  I sure hope he isn't using Covestor to advertise his services.  LOL   Yet another example of why it is better to do this yourself rather than to trust your money to one of these "professionals".       

  •  07-06-2009, 3:21 PM 60018 in reply to 59986

    Re: Benefits of sharing trades

    Reply Quote
    There is a powerful "learn from others" aspect to covestor.com, I agree.
    The best performers on covestor appear to be winning with really small stocks, penny stocks in some cases, but mostly 50-200 M market cap.  I'm starting to look for trades in the smallcap space more closely.
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