lwaldron:
I work at a TV news station. I spoke to one of our experts who does financial advice. His response to this question was, basically, "The 'little guy' has no chance. Wait until it's listed, at which point it'll probably be no better, or worse, a buy than any other stock."
That's my impression, many times the price at the IPO is higher than the price is a few months later. Sometimes with something that's been really hyped up as a private firm it does work out that way. For the most part, there's going to be a period where the stock is mostly unnoticed by most people.
I bought in on GASS roughly some time after its IPO and I the price that I paid was roughly what I would have paid initially for it. The only problem I've had is that I missed out on those dividend checks. The main reason why was that it's a tiny company that's managed to largely fly under the radar of most analysts. I looked earlier today, and there were fewer 10 analysts rating it.
The other portion of the equation is that firms that go up into the stratosphere are still going to be a really good buy a bit later on, sure it kind of sucks to miss out on the first 20%, but if it's a stock which ends up with a 500% gain, take the 20% off and that's still a sizeable chunk of change.