The number you have is current however there is another report that is showing that we could see as much as 11% forclosure in the near term. Your belief that people are making money however is a little off. The housing markets are still cold and are only going to rise again when people can actually afford their mortgages. so those that haven't sold their homes have enough equity to survive and will most likely walk away intact.

aquaswim47:

I sold two days ago, sold a little yesterday, and am buying everything back at 3:59 pm today. Sorry to hear that you were momentum trading. Value trade like me. Just my two cents.

Well I've only been trading for 6 weeks now, so I'm brand new and I'm not sure what my "niche" is.  I had a nice short on FSLR when I saw it was overpriced (it still is).  But the GOOG mistake was based on the following analysis.

I saw that it was in an uptrend, I drew trendlines at the highs and the lows, and it was trading near the low trendline.  Then I figured all the news about Yahoo and Microsoft was probably good for GOOG, and I saw they had earnings coming out and decided that I wouldn't be scared to hold through their earnings if I needed to (April 17).

Here's what I forgot to do...  LOOK AT THE DOW CHART!  oops.  Now I'm all tied up in a loosing position!

It looked like everyone was covering today after 3:30pm, so that's a good sign.  I'm not sure I understand the psychology that led to today's Bear Fest, but the chart is pretty clear.  My cost-basis price on GOOG (including in-and-out comissions) is $470.63...  so I might be tied up a while.

Hey Aqua, do you think GOOG will make it back to my $470.63 price in the not-to-distant future?  You think it could crash through it's previous support level around $410-$420?

Thanks

In regards to your GOOG question, I believe it will head back to the $470 level. Some people think that GOOG is going to $360, but I bought it on weakness at $416.47 per share. In fact, I am holding it because I think YHOO and MSFT will have integration problems and that the newly established competitor really won't be what the hype makes it out to be. I'm betting on GOOG going to $750 or $800 per share by the end of the year, not merely to $470. Remember, it doesn't matter what my opinion is, but what the market believes its future prospects to be. I believe their great, others think they are minor or non-existent. Of course, we are talking about a market at around 14,000 to 15,000 to get to that price level. I really think at the end of the year, it gets there.

Good luck as a new trader. We all take hits as a new investor and we learn from our mistakes. My strategy is value investing, some people trade momentum, and some people employ both strategies.

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Aqua

No thanks Aqua,  there is only one successful way to trade the market and that is your own way.  Everytime I try to follow someone else's method it always ends in a loss of money.  There is a web site I have a lot of respect for which is www.thetechnicaltrader.net.  It is a great site and the trades listed there are A+....but everytime I try to follow it's suggestions I end up getting burned.  I finally gave up and now I stick with my watchlist of about 75 stocks and ETFs that I trade.

My two cents on GOOG.  I'm the dude that keeps saying it will test the $360 support level soon.  The economy isn't going to recovery until the home building industry is back on it's feet.  That is still a long ways away.  There is a huge inventory of foreclosed homes which will need to be resolved before the builders are able to prosper.  Home values have decreased dramatically this past year.  This means people won't be willing to sell their home in hopes of "upgrading" to a bigger home due to a lack of appreciation in their current home.  Many may be unable to sell their home because of either having an upside down mortgage (value of home less than amount borrowed) or trouble finding a buyer.  Throw in more strict lending requirements and you have a recipe for a weak housing industry.  Job cuts are just now starting to ramp up and will have a further negative impact on the economy.   As the economy continues to break down more people will foreclose on their homes.  There is a snowballing effect to the situation.

At the same time, the weakening of the dollar is pushing energy costs higher and there is also becoming a global shortage of food.  I don't know about you but high food prices at the store and high gas prices at the pump are killing my bank account.  Our economy has many things working against it at the moment.  Currently, I don't see where there is any upside to the economy in the next couple of years but hopefully things will improve in the 3 to 5 year range. 

better do your own researches

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Rise of A Star! One Million By 2012!

It certainly does not look that way.  Many people are still consumming.  Each event, as this current one, can clear up in a relative short time.  If not, they seam to disapear without a notice or fanfare.  The Canadian-US economy is not built of straw.  The problems, which are least addressed are the plethora of subsidies and entitlements.

Regards,

We will find out Monday morning how consumer spending is holding up.  My guess is not that good.  High gas prices and high food prices tend to weigh in on the subject.

When a person gives suggestions that they themselves use (lets assume), the advice is really only applicable to the person utilizing that strategy.

It's always best to implement YOUR OWN strategy as you are the one who has to live with the decisions that you make. I'd much rather lose 40% in a stock because of a blip in my decision making than because I relied on the advice of another individual. At least than you feel that you own that decision.

Teva is a great example. It was at $45 in February of 2006 and it fell to $29.76 per share by July of 2006 (a significant drop). I might have bought it at $40 per share, road it up to $43.51, and than took a 31.6% haircut as it fell to $29.76 per share. I would have probably bought it on the way down. The current value is $46.74 per share so you may have made out okay, but you would need to know if 1) you could stomach that and 2) your preformance against the stock market while holding that security. I didn't start trading until January of 2007.

So if I bought 20% at $40, 20% at $38, 20% at $36, and 40% at $34, I would have paid an average cost basis of $36.40 per share and that means a net gain of 28.4%. Remember though that the market return for till July of 2007 was up 20% and till now is up 11% for the DJIA and 3-5% for the S&P 500. In other words, TEVA was a great holding in terms of a bear market (but not during the early part of the holding as it had trailed the market significantly when it fell to $29.76 per share). In fact, it had fallen 5 times more than the S&P 500 index.

If you had bought this security on 1/1/2007, you would have had a 50% gain vs. no gain in the market. With a buy stop order at $35, on Feb 1, 2007, you would have had an over 30% gain vs a negative 8% return on the market and a negative 1% on the DJIA.

What's my analysis:

In this stock, it is likely that a momentum trader would have done better than a value investment strategy. Moreover, a value strategy would have required significant discipline to hold the stock. My strategy wouldn't have been as successful with this stock unless you purchased it around $31 to $32; in other words, it would have required some impeccable timing. The 30% gain is higher than the 28.4% gain for the value investor.

I never got into this stock. I had almost purchased this stock at $33.19 per share. My limit order was at $33.18 per share. Ouch! In my first investment year, I really didn't have the patience to see more than a 10% gain in this stock. I simply was using this stock as a hypothetical example.

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Aqua

Aqua,

 

You still holding that 1 share of GOOG stock?  You should think about unloading it with a gain before their financials are reported.  There is a good chance they may miss their target and take a real beating afterwards.  It may be better to wait and see what happens after the report.

Good idea. I think that is prudent advice.

Side Note:  I didn't sell the security and still own it. I love this stock.

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Aqua

Looks like we may be visiting CNBC's bottom.  I wonder if it holds this time.

Retail sales up due to higher gas prices.  LOL.

I wonder how