Market Commentary for Friday, March 9th, 2008:

^{The Point} - The Trend is Down. Sell and Short on Bounces

^{The Story} - All indicators continue to point lower.  Today was a broad based down day and it looks like we will resume the selling trend that we saw in January.  Once there is enough fear and panic in the markets they will turn higher and we will once again be purchasing stocks.  For now, it looks like the markets will ride lower until we see a true trend change.

^{Trade Recommendation:}  Yesterday we suspected that the markets would bounce lower off of the 7 day EMA's.  They fell hard today and I suspect the indexes will stay below their 7 day EMA for the near future. 

^{Current Position:} Bought QQQQ 45 Puts today @ $2.27;    QQQQ Bear Credit Spread (Bought QQQQ 43 Calls and Sold QQQQ 42 Calls)

^{Watch List}
Lets wait to see what holds up over the next few weeks

Safe Trading!!!

Market Preview for Tuesday, March 11th, 2008:

^{The Point} - The Trend is Down. Sell and Short on Bounces

^{The Story} - The Fed Rate Cut decision should be interesting today.  What we thought might have been a quiet day yesterday ended up in another big down day.  Today should see quiet trading until 2:15 PM and then a distinct jump in either direction.  If we jump higher, it should be a good time to establish new short/put positions.  This market is hurting, but it is working towards a near term bottom.  The following was written last week and could hold true for a little while.  "All indicators continue to point lower.  Today was a broad based down day and it looks like we will resume the selling trend that we saw in January.  Once there is enough fear and panic in the markets they will turn higher and we will once again be purchasing stocks.  For now, it looks like the markets will ride lower until we see a true trend change."

^{Trade Recommendation:}  Look to initiate shorts, purchases or QID, SDS, or DXD when indexes approach their 7 day EMA. 

^{Current Position:}   QQQQ Bear Credit Spread (Bought QQQQ 43 Calls and Sold QQQQ 42 Calls)

^{Watch List} Lets wait to see what holds up over the next few weeks

Safe Trading!!!

The Fed seems to think the cure for everything is to inflate the currency.  Just how much more do they plan on doing of this madness?

So opinions and gripes are a dime a dozen, esp. these days.  Money where mouth is all that really matters.

http://seekingalpha.com/

I have gone long on short contracts, just my speed.  I would much rather not expose myself to short liability when I can go long, nice n' safe just in case.

The rest of my money is in euros, gold, silver, energy issues.  The bottom is not here yet.  Not by a long shot.  The Fed will soon run out of rabbits.  Our politicians are idiots.  The time to buy is when there's blood in the streets.  We are not there yet.  May not be until 2010.

Market Preview for Wednesday, March 12th, 2008:

*Thanks to Matt for yesterday's comment.  We agree that the market is not done with it's fall.

^{The Point} - The Trend is Down. Sell and Short on Bounces

^{The Story} - We mistakeny said that the Fed rate cut decision was scheduled for yesterday.  It is scheduled for Tuesday March 18th with 64% of traders expecting a 3/4 point cut.  As we analyze our current markets, the trend is still lower.  7 day EMA's are lower thean 21 day EMA's on all three indexes and the MACD is negative (although it did rise with yesterdays huge rally).  Stochastics did just make a turn higher with yesterday's rallly.  The trend is still down and it is a good time to initiate new positions and get out of any remaining long positions before a further drop.  Finally, as you consider bottoms, it would be hard to say that Monday demonstrated the fear that you would expect in a short term or long term market problem.  The Fed lending treasuries will not turn the market trend in one day.  The trend will turn higher when traders are done selling.

^{Trade Recommendation:}  Look to initiate shorts, purchase puts, QID, SDS, or DXD.  Indexes are right around their 7 day EMA. 

^{Current Position:}   QQQQ Bear Credit Spread (Bought QQQQ 43 Calls and Sold QQQQ 42 Calls); QQQQ April 2008 Puts

^{Watch List} Lets wait to see what holds up over the next few weeks

Safe Trading!!!

Market Preview for Friday, March 14th, 2008:

^{The Point} - The Trend is Down. Sell and Short on Bounces

^{The Story} - The general trends of the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow continue to point to a market that is falling.  The major trend indicator we follow is the 7 day EMA and it is currently below the 21 day EMA.  MACD's are negative with stochastics slightly higher.  We suspect the markets will continue falling as they follow the general trends to lower lows. 

^{Trade Recommendation:}  Look to initiate shorts, purchase puts, QID, SDS, or DXD.  Indexes are right around their 7 day EMA. 

^{Current Position:}   QQQQ Bear Credit Spread (Bought QQQQ 43 Calls and Sold QQQQ 42 Calls); QQQQ April 2008 Puts

^{Watch List} Lets wait to see what holds up over the next few weeks

Safe Trading!!!

Market Preview for Monday, March 17th, 2008:

^{The Point} - The Trend is Down. Sell and Short on Bounces

^{The Story} - The general trends of the S&P, Nasdaq and Dow are down.  The major trend indicator we follow is the 7 day EMA and it is currently below the 21 day EMA.  MACD's are negative with stochastics turning lower.  We suspect the markets will continue falling as they follow the general trends and hit lower lows.  This is not a time for optimism.  Look to establish short positions on rally's.  Do not own financials as they continue to be the hardest hit!

^{Trade Recommendation:}  Look to initiate shorts, purchase puts, QID, SDS, or DXD.  Indexes are right around their 7 day EMA. 

^{Current Position:}   QQQQ Bear Credit Spread (Bought QQQQ 43 Calls and Sold QQQQ 42 Calls)

^{Watch List} Lets wait to see what holds up over the next few weeks.  This market will bottom out at some point (maybe in less than 5 weeks) and we will look for quality companies to purchase.

Safe Trading!!!

Market Preview for Tuesday March 19th, 2008:

^{The Point} - The Trend is Down. Sell and Short on Bounces

^{The Story} - All indicators are lower except for stochastics on the S&P which are turning lower.  We might have an early bounce today which could be a very good time to initiate additional short positions.  The Dow has been the strongest of the three indexes with the Nasdaq being the weakest.  The Fed announces rates today, so it will be interesting to see the markets reaction.

^{Trade Recommendation:}  We are planning to add a few put positions upon the open today and then wait until after the FED decision at 2:15 to see how the market reacts.  After the 2:15 announcement, look to initiate shorts, purchase puts, QID, SDS, or DXD. 

^{Current Position:}   QQQQ Bear Credit Spread (Bought QQQQ 43 Calls and Sold QQQQ 42 Calls)

^{Watch List} Lets wait to see what holds up over the next few weeks.  This market will bottom out at some point (maybe in less than 5 weeks) and we will look for quality companies to purchase.

Safe Trading!!!

You have been saying the trend is down every day for the past two months, and have missed every upswing in the market.  The markets have been range bound 1270-1400.  NOT DOWN.

If anyone wants a more active approach to trend  analysis, please check out my website.

www.advancedtrendanalysis.com



Good Luck,
Scott
S&P 500 Trend

Market Preview for Wednesday March 26, 2008:

^{The Point} - THE TREND IS RISING, BUT WAIT WITH CASH

^{The Story} - The 7 day EMA has turned above the 21 day EMA indicating a trend change.  The MACD is barely lower, but rising and another up day would turn it positive.  Stochastics have been higher for almost a week now.  However, the upcoming market action will be very interesting.  It is very likely that the market will at least pull-back from here.  The Dow has broken above its 50 day EMA while the Nasdaq and S&P have run up to the 50 day EMA and it is very possible the bounce lower off of it.  If the trend is up we should see low volume down days and a positive trend continuation.  If the volume picks up on down days it is very likely that we could see lower lows.

A updated recommendation performance history will be posted to detail the suggested actions to profit from the trending markets.

^{Trade Recommendation:}  Cash is King

^{Current Position:}   Cash

^{Watch List} To be constructed this week.  Maybe we have seen a bottom?

Safe Trading!!!