No one can perfectly predict the direction of the market so it is wisest to follow the market and minimize your losses when it quickly turns on you.  The quick and dramatic turns of the past month have been very difficult for many investors.  This thread is designed to follow the market direction and the technicals that indicate trends and changes. 

I disagree; there are opportunities that can come out of the market from declines. I do see a slow three months with a potential fall to 11,500. I don't think that's scary because to try to time the market is foolish unless there is real irrational exuberance. People are panicking; the market is not behaving in a rationale way. In my opinion, that should indicate to the individual to start feverishly buying stocks on the way down (if it even goes down).

I believe we'll be at 16,000 at year end of 2008 (most bullish position; more likely 15,000 or 14,800).

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Aqua

Hello bbakes24

Dont forget the advance/decline  http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$NYAD

put call ratio  http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$CPC

voatility index   http://stockcharts.com/charts/gallery.html?$VIX

among  these others 

 http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=msummary&cmd=show,iday[Y]&disp=SXA

Good luck

Thanks for the posts and feedback.  Please add your commentary perspective.

Positive action today on the S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq.  After a 5% + decline we have a nice bounce.  Trend is still negative on the Nasdaq and S&P.  The Dow has a stochastic cross to the downside with the moving averages meeting and the MACD turning lower with another down day.  I see the intermediate trend as down for now with room to bounce. 

I bought SDS to follow the downward action, but will keep a close stop and am interested in picking up ISRG after a huge drop yesterday to the 50 day MA in light volume.

Thanks for the recent posts.  Keep detailing it as you're seeing it. 

Quiet trading day today.  S&P, Nasdaq and Dow are all currently in confirmed downtrends with moving averages, MACD and stochastics all pointing lower.  Maybe some small positive action, but the trend is clearly down. 

Watch List:
ISRG - low volume advance.  Looking to add shares at $300 level (50 day MA).

bbakes24:

Quiet trading day today. SP, Nasdaq and Dow are all currently in confirmed downtrends with moving averages, MACD and stochastics all pointing lower. Maybe some small positive action, but the trend is clearly down.

Watch List:
ISRG - low volume advance. Looking to add shares at $300 level (50 day MA).

Any update today bakes? did we rebound ?

Varied action across the markets today.

Nasdaq: Obviously the big winner today. Trend is still lower according to MACD, stochastics, and moving average crosses. Today's close is right at the 21 day EMA and a break above or bounce back below might give an indication where we are heading down the road. The 2-6 week trend is still down, but pushing for a change.

SP 500: Fair bounce today in the SP, but the story is still the same with all above indications trending downward. The 21 day EMA at 1475 and 50 day EMA at 148 will be key resistance points.

Dow: The weak bounce in the Dow today (fueled primarily by IBM) coincides with the earlier indicated downtrend. 13,400 is an interesting level.

Still watching ISRG which participated nicely in the Nasdaq rally today. Looking for some potential shorts and was considering CFC, BSC, FRE, FNM but didn't want to chase them on today's bad news. I know many traders are grabbing at ETFC which seems like dead money to me at best with the potential to lose a quick 25%.

TODAY's TRADE: I have been trying to execute a credit spread this month to generate some income. Got cold feet twice and took protective losses (trades would have worked out). However, today I sold 25 DIA 130 puts and purchased 25 DIA 129 puts (Bullish Credit Spread). The trade will net 11% in one day if the Dow stays above 13,000 tomorrow.

Update for Christmas Eve: 12/24/2007

Remember, the purpose of this post is to follow the market's direction, not to try and predict it. Moving average crosses, stochastics, and MACD +/- crosses show when the market or individual stocks have displayed a trend change.

SP, Dow, and Nasdaq: All three had tremendous up days on stronger volume indicating a continued bull trend. However, their is not a confirmed trend yet. A trend can last from 2 to as much as 20 weeks, so gradually entering a confirmed trend saves the risk of capital loss. A few more days of even mildly positive action with some occasional moderate down days will flip the indicators. Just being patient and ready to act.

TRADE UPDATE:
1. Profitted 11% in 28 hours on DIA Bull Credit Spread mentioned earlier.
2. Watching ISRG as well as BIDU, HDB, and GEOY.
3. Looking to add FRE which failed to participate in a huge up market on Friday.
4. Check out LDK - high volatility and dropping like a rock. Plan to open a Bear Credit Spread with $45 and $50 puts.


"And you, my child, will be called a prophet of the Most High;
for you will go on before the Lord to prepare a way for him,
to give his people the knowledge of salvation
through the forgiveness of their sins,
because of the tender mercy of our God..." -Luke 1:76-78

-Zechariah above speaks of Jesus' amazing gift! Have a wonderful Christmas!!!

Post Trading Update: 12/24/2007

Dow: Moving Averages and MACD have crossed to the upside: One more day of positive action should lead to an all-clear signal and complete 3 for 3 buy signal.

Nasdaq: Stochastics and Moving Averages have crossed. The MACD should be there on the next positive trading day.

SP: Moving averages have crossed. Stochastics and MACD about to turn.

For everyone at Zecco, thanks for a great place to invest!!! and Merry Christmas!!!!!!

Quiet action today. All indicators are turning positive. Looking for continued positive market action.

I am visiting family in Louisville, Kentucky this weekend making it hard to update posts. Fortunately it is a quiet trading week. I will update again before the New Year's Eve trading session on Monday. For now, we are at an important stage: Markets have demonstrated strength and a pullback today makes sense. What we don't want is for this to lead to another interim low going below last weeks lows. January trading will be the key going forward. Hopefully we can add some nice positions if we do have a little more pullback and then let the market roll forward.

Most indactors have turned/are positive, but we will keep close watch. Remember, we are looking for a trend. The whipsaw action is challenging to deal with as an investor so we will simply focus on the markets direction that it is showing us, not try to quess it.

Market Analysis: 10 AM December 31st

NASDAQ: The Nasdaq is the strongest of the three indexes that we are following. The 7 day EMA is still above the 21 day EMA, the MACD remains positive and stochastics are barely positive. The indicators do not show a strong trend and could easily roll over. It is important to see the Nasdaq get some positive action in order to maintain an upward trend.

SP: All three indicators for the SP trend have rolled over and indicate a downward trend. As we try to follow the markets (not predict them) it would indicate a good time to lighten up on positions.

Dow: Stochastics have turned negative for the Dow while the MACD and moving averages indicate a positive trend by a hair.

Summary: It is a good time to remain cautious. We will look for clear direction as we conclude '07 and begin a new trading year.

Happy New Year!!!

Remember the Purpose of this http://Post...No one can perfectly predict the direction of the market so it is
wisest to follow the markets and minimize your losses when it quickly
turns on you. The quick and dramatic turns of the past month have been
very difficult for many investors. This thread is designed to follow
the market direction and the technicals that indicate trends and
changes.

No one know which direction the markets will go, but clear trends often present themselves and give us the opportunity to take what the market gives. The last month has been quite choppy and direction has been back and forth. So, as we enter 2008, let's try to see what trends are developing.

Nasdaq: 2/3 + The Nasdaq is still the strongest of the three. The 7 day EMA is still above the 21 day EMA (positive) and the stochastics are still positive (although close to crossing) while the MACD has just turned negative. The Nasdaq has pulled back after it's recent bounce and does not have a clearly indicated trend. This week might give us a greater indication of it's direction. The Nasdaq is also trading right at a confluence of the 21 and 50 day EMA.

SP: 3/3 - The SP has just turned negative on it's 7 day and 21 day EMA and has been slightly negative with the MACD for 2 trading days. The stochastics have been negative since before the holidays. Trend is down, but can easily turn positive with a strong week.

Dow: 2/3 - The Dow has just displayed a slight 7 day EMA downward cross of the 21 day EMA. Stochastics have been negative since before the holiday and the MACD is barely positive. Strong action in either direction should be telling.

SUMMARY: Trading Volume has been extremely light and a clear trend has not developed. Markets are pointing lower at the moment, but that could easily be redirected in a couple hours of trading. As we start 2008 we will be looking for a clear trend. I recommend adding long positions at the lower prices and having tight stops on them to limit loss.


Potential Long Picks:
BIDU @$381-$385
AMZN with Breakout @$96
AAPL @ $189-$194
SPWR @$122-$127
HDB @$124-$129
HOLX @$67-70

Potential Short Picks:
FRE
LDK
FNM\
CFC

Current Portfolio:

DAR (long @ $11.27)

ISRG (long @ $324)

FRE (short @ $34) - used Feb. puts with a debit spread

LDK (short @ $48) - used Jan. calls with a credit spread

First Trading Day of 2008

No one know which direction the markets will go, but clear trends often
present themselves and give us the opportunity to take what the market
gives. The last month has been quite choppy and direction has been back
and forth. So, as we enter 2008, let's try to see what trends are
developing.

Nasdaq: neutral Believe it or not, the Nasdaq still is neutral, but at break even indications on all three indicators. Even with a neutral end of the week the Nasdaq will be pointing towards a down trend.

SP:
3/3 - The SP is indicating a clear downtrend on all three indicators.

Dow: 3/3
- The Dow also is indicating a clear downtrend on all three indicators.

SUMMARY: We got big volume today, but unfortunately on a down day. We could easily see a test of the lows in the coming days with a potential to fall beyond. Maintain stops to limit your losses, but look for good opportunities as well. I purchased AMZN (up 3%) on it's breakout today with strong volume despite a terrible market. DAR and ISRG both broke even after strong openings. SPWR, HDB, BIDU, and AAPL and all in potential buying ranges, but I would add slowly and immediately implement stops. I personally only add one position per day. Check out ARGN as well as it recently broke out of a long and shallow base with decent volume. Should be an interesting couple of days with high volatility!

Potential Long Picks:
BIDU @$381-$385
AMZN with Breakout @$96
AAPL @ $189-$194
SPWR @$122-$127
HDB @$124-$129
ARGN @ $20-$21.50

Potential Short Picks:
FRE
LDK
FNM\
CFC

Current Portfolio:
DAR (long @ $11.27)
ISRG (long @ $324)
AMZN (long @ $96.54)
FRE (short @ $34) - used Feb. puts with a debit spread
LDK (short @ $48) - used Jan. calls with a credit spread

January 3rd, 2008

The purpose of this post is to observe the market's direction and move with it. We want to swim with the river, not against it...

The SP, Nasdaq and Dow are indicating a downtrend. The 7 day EMA has fallen below the 21 day EMA, stochastics have made downward crosses and the MACD has turned negative in all three major indices. At this point, all indicators point lower. Maybe a bounce near previous lows and possibly a break to lower near term lows. Investors Business daily details that the current rally is under pressure with 5 or 6 distribution days. Selling has been strong and it wise to wait for new purchases and have tight stop losses on current positions to preserve cap