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Zecco.com » General Investing » Screening & Picking » Buying Stocks in the Value Bin
Last post 05-17-2008, 3:57 AM by jackg1606. 9 replies.
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  •  05-15-2008, 10:05 PM 29188

    Buying Stocks in the Value Bin

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    Value Stocks
    TSM
    DNA
    CELG
    PFE - 6.4% Dividend; high PEG though; 8 PE
    GOOG - this hasn't moved for awhile. It's a great stock that's only headed higher
    PRU - longstanding insurer with great reputation and decent management
    HPQ
    WSF - buy the preferred stock of Wells Fargo - pays a 7% dividend
    NGG - get into utilities
    EXC - natural gas play
    XOM - integrated oil
    GS - well-managed investment management broker, but in a very tough industry
    ADBE - great software products
    PEP - great management and great defensive play

    Momentum Plays
    VMW - what a fantastic company.
    STT - great management; high-quality asset management company
    TROW - solid asset management company
    COP - high-quality integrated oil company
    MA - great credit card company

    Aqua
  •  05-16-2008, 2:53 AM 29202 in reply to 29188

    Re: Buying Stocks in the Value Bin

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    When the average hourly worker can't afford food, gas and shelter, what makes you think these stocks have a future higher value?
  •  05-16-2008, 4:01 AM 29208 in reply to 29202

    Re: Buying Stocks in the Value Bin

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    Blow up the credit card companies!  Erase the debt record!  Project Mayhem lives!  Really, I apologize for the "Fight Club" references, but despite crappy economic data and uncertainty all around, the American Economy will not screech to a halt anytime soon.  Will things get tighter and tighter and people will be very hard pressed?  Yes.  I can foresee that.  But things would have to tank to Biblical proportions to get as bad as they were in the 1970's.  Double digit inflation?  Double digit unemployment??  Inflation adjusted gas prices that were higher than they are now (and with American made cars getting 8 miles a gallon)???  And even that did not send us back to the Stone Age.  Current unemployment is 5%.  Just think what panic we would had if we doubled that!  Inflation is rising, but is still in the neighborhood of 4-5%.  Now double that!  This is not bad. 

    In fact, you get out of the cities and go to Rural America and you find farmers FLUSH with cash.  They can't buy enough seed, equipment, and fertilizer fast enough!  And someone has to package the seed, and build the tractor, and refine the fertilizer, and design and install irrigation, and so on.  They may not make those things in major East Coast metroplexes but they sure make them in the fly over states, where employment data seems to look a touch better.  In any market, there is going to be somebody making money.  I am a capitalist pig, I know.  But I got faith.  I was raised in the country, that is all we have out in Podunk sometimes...

  •  05-16-2008, 11:03 AM 29221 in reply to 29208

    Re: Buying Stocks in the Value Bin

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    I agree farmers are doing great right now but more people live in cities than on a farm.  We may not go back into the stone age but to be blindly bullish as we are moving into what could be a very long deep recession is just plain foolish.  Look at a ten year chart of the SP500 and you'll see that we have just barely begun moving down the chart. 
  •  05-16-2008, 2:06 PM 29233 in reply to 29188

    Re: Buying Stocks in the Value Bin

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    Aquaswim47,

    I don't know how you can call GOOG a value play.

    Angell

  •  05-16-2008, 2:19 PM 29234 in reply to 29233

    Re: Buying Stocks in the Value Bin

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    Oil just popped $128.  I'm fill'n my tank up this afternoon.  It's only going to get more expensive......summer electric bills are going to put a further squeeze on the average Joe.  How is that second half of the year turn around going to get any traction with everyone flat broke and maxed out on credit.  MA and V will be doing wonders collecting transaction fees all the way up until the majority of people living on their credit cards max them out.  Then no more credit transactions.  MA and V will be in some serious revenue pain later this year.
  •  05-16-2008, 3:10 PM 29239 in reply to 29234

    Re: Buying Stocks in the Value Bin

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    Today's news.........

     

    Consumer grim as stagflationary 80s; housing mixed
    Friday May 16, 2:00 pm ET
    By Burton Frierson

    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Consumer confidence tumbled to a 28-year low this month as rising prices strained household finances, while another drop in single-family housing starts underscored problems still plaguing the economy.

    ADVERTISEMENT
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    Friday's data showed consumers' short-term inflation expectations hit a 26-year high, heightening the dilemma facing the Federal Reserve, which has bet that a slow economy will tame prices.

    The report on consumer sentiment fuels worries that the United States could be entering the early days of a period of stagflation like the late 1970s and early 1980s, characterized by a sluggish economy and accelerated price growth.

    Combined with another record high in oil prices on Friday, the news hurt stocks. The bond market, which benefits from slow growth, focused on the weak sentiment, but analysts said the grim inflation outlook puts the Fed on the hot seat.

    "The Fed has continuously said they want to contain inflation expectations -- and they are not contained," said Tom Sowanick, chief investment officer at Clearbrook Financial LLC in Princeton, New Jersey.

    "The Fed is going to have to address inflation expectations in some manner, whether they talk it down or they force it down, possibly by taking away the aggressive rate cuts over the last year."

    The Fed has slashed its target for the benchmark overnight federal funds rate by 3.25 percentage points since crises in the housing and credit markets last year pushed the economy toward recession. The rate cuts are a text-book response to the threat of recession, but the opposite strategy used to fight inflation.

    GRIM MOOD

    The Reuters/University of Michigan index of consumer confidence certainly highlighted the threat to economic growth, dropping to 59.5 in May -- the lowest level since June 1980. (For graphic click on: ( http://www.reuters.com/">http://www.reuters.com/ )

    This is bad news for the United States, where consumers fuel two-thirds of national economic activity through their purchases of goods and services.

    "Consumer confidence continued to slip in early May due to surging food and fuel prices," the Surveys of Consumers statement said. "Record numbers of consumers viewed the economy in recession and saw little hope of recovery anytime soon."

    This took the shine off news from the Commerce Department that starts on new U.S. homes rose by a surprisingly strong 8.2 percent in April, the biggest monthly increase in more than two years. The bounce, however, came entirely from multiple-unit dwellings such as apartments and condominiums.

    Applications for new building permits also turned up for the first time in five months, presenting another rare bit of good news for the beleaguered U.S. housing market, the original source of the economy's current troubles.

    In a sign that housing's woes were not yet over, ground-breaking on single-family homes in the United States dropped to the slowest pace since 1991.

    Meanwhile, the Michigan report's gauge of one-year inflation expectations surged to 5.2 percent -- the highest since February 1982 -- from 4.8 percent in April.

    Also worrying for policy-makers at the Federal Reserve, five-year inflation expectations were the highest since August 1996, edging up to 3.3 percent from April's 3.2 percent.

    The inflation measures challenge the Fed's view that soaring commodity prices have not yet led to an increase in long-term expectations for price growth.

    The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, Dennis Lockhart, acknowledged inflation was a problem.

    "Inflation has been elevated since mid-decade, basically since 2005. For my own comfort zone, it is at an uncomfortable level," he told CNBC television in a live interview.

    "My base-case forecast is that the weak economy will bring inflation down. And in fact, if you look at some of the information, the data we've seen in the last couple of cycles ...it has slowed," said Lockhart, who is not a voting member of the Fed's interest rate-setting committee this year.

  •  05-16-2008, 5:54 PM 29246 in reply to 29188

    Re: Buying Stocks in the Value Bin

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    I like XOM, just got in myself. A lot of the recent news I've pulled in has been varied, some saying it is well diversified across countries and has the best control over reserves of any of the major players, along with expanding its business to other energy sources. Other people seem to be slamming it, and not just those well-intentioned anti-capitalists in the media and elsewhere. It seems to have stagnated against CVX and COP recently and appears ready for a push (even more so than the last week, where it has picked up 4%). Until we get real leadership on wind and solar, it'd be hard to lose with these three, and I see XOM being the best value of them. As a hedge (because we are moving in that direction - or at least public sentiment is) I've been in with AKNS and CSIQ as solar plays recently. CSIQ has been off the charts, $18 to $45 in the last 1.5 mos. At this point, it's not clear that there is much value left there though ... until the "gas pain" really takes hold I think these will be floating. Maybe not though, if they can get profitable (i.e. like CSIQ) and stay profitable.

    Maybe over simplified, but in the aggregate these concerns really do seem to be driving prices.


    GOOG was a value play when eveyone misjudged those reports of clicks being down in feb/march. $450/share was a steal. Now that it's out that Google really is that good of a company, and that profitable, it is probably in nuetral territory in my mind. The whole Msft/Yahoo debacle may have something to say about that still though, as well as Android, etc. I'd say it is still a great long term buy, besides not issuing dividends.

    As for Natural Gas, in my mind the Russian company Gazprom is a good bet. Now that Russian leadership is deeply tied into that company (ala U.S. 2000-2008), i'd expect good results. They beat estimates yesterday and there's no reason why that can't go on, especially with their supply stranglehold on Europe.
    http://www.reuters.com/

    I'm not entirely sure if GAZP can be traded through Zecco. I don't personally own any.
  •  05-16-2008, 6:55 PM 29247 in reply to 29188

    Re: Buying Stocks in the Value Bin

    Reply Quote
    aquaswim47:

    ADBE - great software products


    Great software indeed!  I love Photoshop CS3 and everything; however, the moment this baby goes above $45, I will short it.  ADBE is a great company, but it has a really tough time to stay above $45.  Before it can do the double top break out or the cup with the handle break out, it will pullback to the $40 line.  Of course, I'm just guessing...I really don't know anything about the future.
  •  05-17-2008, 3:57 AM 29269 in reply to 29247

    Re: Buying Stocks in the Value Bin

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    The troubles CNBC forgot to mention.................

    NEW YORK (AP) -- Shares of American Express Co. fell Friday as the company's April delinquency data showed more customers are missing payments and an analyst said the stock is vulnerable for at least the next six months.
    ADVERTISEMENT


    American Express shares fell $1.24, or 2.5 percent, to $48.62 in midday trading. Shares have traded between $39.50 and $65.89 during the past year.

    Delinquencies at New York-based American Express increased 0.04 percent in April compared with the previous month, Calyon Securities Inc. analyst Craig Maurer wrote in a research note. Delinquencies increased 0.67 percent compared with the year ago, Maurer said.

    Delinquencies, which are a strong indicator of future performance, typically fall in April, Maurer wrote in a research note.

    Like many other lenders, American Express is dealing with rising delinquencies and defaults on payments. As fewer customers pay on time, financial services firms like American Express are forced to increase reserves to cover charge-offs -- loans written off as not being repaid. The rising reserves eat into earnings.
    ---
    april was also a record HIGH use of plastic

    people often max out, before filing bk  Prices at the pump will continue to take their toll on our economy all through summer leaving little chance of an economic rebound in the second half of the year as many predict.
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