Have We Hit the Bottom?

re: Have We Hit the Bottom?

madjay — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 02:58:55 GMT

Very interesting post. It is very difficult to say what is going to happen but my personal opinion is that we are in a short term uptrend but long term bear market. I have no idea how high or low the market will go so I just watch different indicators like put/call ratio, vix, investor bullish/bearish sentiments to help. Between the housing market, financial system crisis, inflation/stagflation and our growing deficit we could be in a long term bear market. I don't like to buy stocks/etfs at their very bottom because they can go down further. A well known trader (Bernard Baruch, I think) said : I never buy buy a stock too low and I never sell a stock too high. I try to follow that approach. I am no expert - maybe I can speak confidently after I reach the top 20% or the top 5%.

re: Have We Hit the Bottom?

MC Moore$ — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 04:36:04 GMT

Madjay - Thanks for the comment. I agree that it's hard to know when to get in and when to get out. I think working as a team with other ZeccoShare investors might help us get in a little earlier and stay in a little longer though. I'm curious what other people have to say about this too.

ZeccoShare Community MC

re: Have We Hit the Bottom?

lucasjkr — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 14:16:15 GMT

I'm trying to take a longer term view on everything. The fact is, I'm 33, so i have MANY earning years ahead of me before retirement. There is the argument that its really painful to try to "catch a falling knife", as you usually won't and the market will sink further than the bottom at which you thought you were making your purchases. But I'd much rather be buying now and losing money in the process, only to have positions staked out in companies if and when all this passes. If you wait for the market to look strong, you're buying at or near the peak.

And yes, financials seem horrible all the way around right now. We have to get used to the idea that it's going to take a WHILE for them to get a new business footing. So much money was made writing mortgages and packaging CDO's the last few years and that market has evaporated. Though I am longer in them than short (PNSN, NYM, UYG vs. SKF), i fully expect to take more losses in the short term as i lower my basis on each of them. SKF is there just to protect against the apocalypse, i guess.

re: Have We Hit the Bottom?

.Andy. — Thu, 07 Aug 2008 21:53:49 GMT

I do like the idea of buy low sell high. I am looking long term and I think that atleast Citigroup is a buy this low if you have the time to wait for it to climb back up. That is why I currently own C. With that said I also think we have to have patient to reap the benefits of financials.
So while I do have a play on C, I am not putting a lot of eggs in that basket because at the current time I think there are much better plays.

re: Have We Hit the Bottom?

The Hobbit — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 01:04:38 GMT

Buy low and sell high is a great concept. However, when the market goes down, all stocks go down. So why would you buy badly managed companies like Citibank or General Motors when you can pick up greatly managed companies that are also on sale? I advocate sticking with the best of breed stocks no matter what the market is doing.

re: Have We Hit the Bottom?

beyondestiny — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 09:01:19 GMT

Capital doesn't create itself. That's part of reason financial sector blew out by attempting outsmart themselves. IMHO, it's once-in-a-decade chance to pick up some easy $$$. Market always behaves irrational out of rational because panic and greed. Just don't buy the tricks.

My picks (of financial sector) FRE, SFI, ACF

CAUTION: You may lose part or all of your investment and always balance your portfolio and exposure within your own tolerance level. Nothing is impossible (Oh, no...I didn't get paid for saying this)

re: Have We Hit the Bottom?

chivo101 — Fri, 08 Aug 2008 14:42:07 GMT

When the markets go down, most stocks go down, good companies and bad. The good ones get punished and you can get great prices, as long s you have a bottoms up approach to individual companies and can stay in the market for 5 years. I have been adding long positions since january and I'm not done yet!

re: Have We Hit the Bottom?

ZaddY — Wed, 13 Aug 2008 00:00:20 GMT

Maybe its time to just invest in dividend stocks, even though they are down... chances are they will not lose as much value as other stocks that don't pay dvidends... just my 2 cents..

re: Have We Hit the Bottom?

fabreu30 — Thu, 14 Aug 2008 01:58:38 GMT

monthly dividend look nice in my account every month.

re: Have We Hit the Bottom?

beezerlm — Sun, 21 Sep 2008 14:54:26 GMT

Just got some C and AIG in the last dip/rebound. Bought low and sold high. Hoping for another dip in C because it always seems to make its way back up to $20.