I hope you all had a happy Halloween! I know my son had the time of his life and I had a blast watching him traipse around dressed as superhero Ben Ten HeatBlast. I went to watch his school Halloween parade and I must say it was pretty cute. All the little Kindergarteners marching along dressed up. The boys were all superheroes and the girls were all princesses. We're all still coming off the sugar high from trick-or-treating!
With Halloween behind us, we're now officially in the holiday season. And you know what that means – the holiday shopping season is upon us. Last year we saw a 3.4% drop in holiday sales as the financial collapse and recession weighed heavily on consumer confidence and spending. This year the National Retail Federation is expecting a 1% drop in sales while other analysts think spending will be flat, which is good – if not great – news.
With high unemployment, lenders white-knuckling their cash and housing foreclosures still a reality, retailers are braced for another bah-humbug holiday season. But with the recession ebbing, better-than-expected retail numbers in August and a rebounding stock market, there is some reason for hope things will not get much worse than they were in 2008.
Of course I wonder how this will all play out in the market. The Dow has popped up 49.5% since the bottom in March which makes one wonder, has the market been too optimistic for the times? Perhaps it will take a hit when the reality of consumer spending hits this November and December. Or maybe the bullish market will make people feel more confident about spending as they see their portfolios bouncing back.
Time will tell, of course, but it's always fun to take a guess. What do you think this holiday season is going to look like; a Scrooge-fest or the land of plenty? And how do you think the market will respond? Let me know your thoughts in the comments below!
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