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The Zecco Inside Scoop

Is TARP Working?

It's been six months since Obama took office and slightly less time since he passed his massive stimulus package. If you'll remember, at the time I was lukewarm on it. Looking back, I believe that Obama and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke had their backs against the wall and tried their best with the mess they were handed. The result was far from perfect, but as they say in the army, “Any action is better than inaction.”


So has it worked? Bernanke thought so last week when he told Congress that the economy is picking up and that the TARP funds have begun to have a positive effect. "The pace of decline appears to have slowed significantly, and final demand and production have shown tentative signs of stabilization." On the other hand, he also said recovery would continue to be slow, that unemployment would continue grow until 2012 and that "financial conditions remain stressed, and many households and businesses are finding credit difficult to obtain."


Personally, I know a lot of individuals who are still feeling the pinch and haven't felt any relief from the government's intervention. In my own neighborhood, I see more empty storefronts on the main drag, and I have friends who have lost jobs (though some have found employment in recent months). More generally, I believe the banks are still holding onto their funds too tightly, unwilling to lend. So I'm not so sure everything is coming up roses just yet. That said, the markets just sprung past the 9000 mark—an important barrier so that's a positive sign for the economy. I honestly don't know where I land on this one. I would like to believe TARP is working, because as a country, we need it to work.


So I turn it over to you. Do you see signs of improvement in your neighborhood? Nationally? Were the fiscal stimulus and Fed actions appropriate, or too much intervention?


Published Friday, August 07, 2009 4:00 PM by Jeroen Veth - CEO
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Comments

 

jason+4 said:

The panic of 1792 vs 2008;
The little known fact about 1792 is that one of our founding fathers took 2 million of "HIS OWN MONEY" and put it into the system. Several others followed not as much but enough to help stabalize. This was their stimulus plan.
Funny how our forefathers believed that the health and comfort of the US was on their shoulders. Now a days, it is our shoulders that the government relies on.
August 7, 2009 4:13 PM
 

rokerdud said:

i think that the stimulus money is creating a bubble.  the govt is giving notice "a priori" to which stocks it will buy days in the future.  the money is going to the day traders who buy the stock only to sell it the next day when the govt "invests" part of the $700 billion of other people money by buying stock shares in large companies that need shoring up.  

There is an advantage to the govt removing some float in the companies as an artificial way to show the prices are going up, it makes the indexes like the DJIA show that prices are climbing.

unfortunately, if the bubble is from the govt manipulating the market rather than actual increase in value from these companies, the net result is the value will need to return to a "real" valuation of the companies and their assets at some future date.  This would be a bubble bursting.

i don't know how much bubble there is to burst, but when the govt spends 4 trillion in 1 year, when all income taxes combined are 1 trillion per year, there will come a time when somebody will need to pay the piper.  will we need to pay double taxes for the next 3 years?

there are 3 good ways to increase taxes on suckers.  \
1. inflation, by printing money,(as fast as they can print it) and creating credit based economy, the govt can put money in there pocket while at the same time reducing the value of your money.  they have taxed you without collecting taxes, they took you value by printing more currency/giving out credit.

2. raise taxes on companies.
Only people who make money pay taxes.  so if you work for a company that pays taxes, that is money that would have been going into your pay check, into your benefits, into your bonuses.  Taxes on companies are taxes on people who work.  The rich are already rich, their money is safe, the middle class feels the taxes on companies.  

2b. steal from the future - the tax of the hopeful
companies have stock and when a company does well, it's stock value increases (pretty much all of the time).  when you tax a company you steal from its share holders.  who are the share holders?  lots of mutual funds.  who owns the mutual funds?  people who hope to retire someday.  when you tax a company you will "tax the hopeful", not burdening the rich, they are already rich, you burden the man who is trying to retire someday.

3. i'll write 3 later, after my blood pressure goes down.

If you read Marx's 35 page paper (in english) "the communist manifesto"  you will see that Socialism is the Government of Communism, where Communism is the Religion, and Socialism is the Economy.  

Humor:
Socialism - a great idea until you run out of other peoples money.

Honor - would you suffer for what is right?

rokerdud
August 8, 2009 2:58 PM
 

necklebox said:

Rokerdud, I gotta say. The tired socialistic rhetoric that is being constantly re-stated by a small group of individuals is getting tiring. Just because certain actions by the government can be considered socialistic doesn't mean the government or the nation as a whole is becoming socialistic. Bottom line is, taxes are going to have to be increased. Not just because of Obama but because of Bush as well. Bush's incessant tax breaks for the rich plus paying for an irrelevant war really didn't help things...

Hypothetically, if a socialist health care reform passed that as a whole made insurance cheaper wouldn't that counteract the 'supposed' higher taxes that the common man would have to pay? And also, quite frankly, as a 27 yr old. I personally couldn't care less if, according to your logic, the common person's mutual fund's take a tax hit. I have already accepted the fact that there will be no free money for me or my generation via social security or other forms of social welfare. One more slight hit hardly makes a difference to me. There are always alternatives. So spare me the crying. Suck it up and realize certain things need to be done and now, while the nation is already floating on the winds of change, is the time to do it.
August 8, 2009 6:49 PM
 

dsondag said:

I can tell the state of the economy just by stepping out of my front door where the first thing I see every morning is a foreclosed home built 3 years ago that has never been lived in.  Grass is dead, weeds are 4 foot high. When that yard gets cleaned up and there is a neighbor to say good morning too, I will know things are improving.

On a second note, I take issue with your comment “The mess they were handed” implying that Obama and Bernanke have no responsibility for the mess we are in. Bernanke has been Fed Chairman sense February 2006, certainly plenty of time to take corrective action if he felt action was need.  As for Obama, his party have controlled both House of congress sense January 1 2007, Obama himself was a member of that congress.  I believe if you check you will find the unemployment rate that Obama and Nancy Pelosi inherited was about 4.5%   Now I am not going to play the blame game, I just would like to see all players involved from both parties step up and take their share of responsibility.
August 8, 2009 10:48 PM
 

wgb1235 said:

I totally agree with "dsondag" in that our leaders need to man up and begin to do the job(s) that they wanted. The failed current administration continues to sidestep the real issues and continues to break campaign promises with the hope that people will continue to believe in the present statements and not remember the old promises. It's disappointing to hear politicians blame one another and to see the fingerpointing that goes on. The hard-working, tax-paying middle class people deserve a break. Rich people did not get to be rich by being stupid. Raise the taxes on the rich doctor, the rich gas station owner, the rich grocery store owner, the rich car dealership...who really pays?
August 9, 2009 11:16 PM
 

tomansley said:

wgb1235 - "the failed current administration" - please.  They have been in power for 7 months.  Don't go throwing those kinds of statements around.  You look stupid.
August 10, 2009 4:13 PM
 

cidan1960 said:

Is TARP working?  It may be too early to say conclusively, but it certainly would appear that it has not worked so far.  However, what is really disturbing to me is the action going on behind the TARP which is the creation of money by the FED.  The apparent intended purpose is to "loan" new money into existence.  It is through debt creation that the money supply in America is increased.  There is no "legal" way to simply print new money under current law.  My take on this is that we are in for a fairly long road of economic contraction and DEFLATION, for at least several years.  Once all of the "bad" real estate debt is worked out of the system, we can then look forward to higher interest rates and inflation.  Buy some gold and silver bullion.
August 11, 2009 1:15 PM
 

Temade said:

FNMA (Fannie Mae) used to have very strict lending rules. They were called Conforming Loans. In the 90's, Bill Clinton told them to relax those rules to allow more minorities to be approved. Basically, they said home loans should not be declined just because people have bad credit. I just didn't follow the logic. Bush warned about the issue, I saw him on TV. Barney Frank then said things were fine. Then Nancy Pelosi blamed the real estate fiasco on Conservative "lack of oversight." Face it folks. Obama said anything to get elected. Or he was overconfident in his own rhetoric. The Bush Derangement Syndrome, got Obama elected, and now he really doesn't have any answers and cares not about mega SPENDING.
August 12, 2009 3:59 PM
 

bolomusic said:

My views...just visit the Midwest.  It's decimated!  I won't say Obama has failed because anyone who took this office would be in the same boat.  But, I do think there will be MAJOR repercussions for the rather unchecked spending.

Visit http://www.artoftodd.com/blog/?p=953 for more musings on the recession.
August 13, 2009 10:15 PM
 

gtstocks said:

TARP is working.  What else is responsible for the recovery.
People that belive otherwise have a short memory.  All the major banks with the exception of Goldman Sachs was heading into the toilet.  Could you imagine what that would have meant? I don't know but maybe economic Armageddon?
August 14, 2009 9:22 AM
 

Temade said:

August 14, 2009 11:07 AM
 

BENNYJ said:

No, it has not work. Unless they give the money directly to the American people, it can never work. It's funny that the main focus of the stimulus is to teach people blue-collar skills which they can never use in this country. This has been a disaster.
August 17, 2009 9:32 PM
 

moneyboy said:

I agree with the various opinions to this article that again only a certain few namely the financial industry is benefiting. It’s my hope that the government starts directing funds to stimulate jobs and small business growth. That’s were the flow of spending to help our economy stabilize will came from. Not the top few in the financial industry.    

Now on the other front of selective issue debate, where one pick and choices a few sotto facts to justify a whole political point of view.  Write or scream at your boob tube with all the other talking heads, i.e. CNN or Fox News.

I like to talk stocks and/or how to turn our economy and this nation around for the betterment for all.  
August 19, 2009 12:32 PM
 

Temade said:

These "few solo" facts are the health care overhaul and the stimulus package! That's all I need.
August 25, 2009 10:02 AM
 

exped100 said:

There seems to be seem some confusion about TARP and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.  The prior being a bailout of banks suffering from a liquidity crisis and the latter being a program of massive government spending.

TARP is a Bush program, but it was passed by Congressional democrats and while consulting with Obama, so I'd say they all own it.  It managed to save banks from their liquidity traps, but also sent lots of taxpayer money to the pockets of execs in the process.  Combined with the Fed intervention into secondary markets, I'd say it was a success in that the credit markets are no longer frozen.  With all the money benefiting the rich, I wouldn't say it was a very efficient success.

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is clearly a democrat and Obama program.  The republicans were putting forth such terrible ideas though, that I don't think they have any right to be criticizing it.  As for whether it is a success, it depends on the metric that we are using.

If the goal was just to cause short term GDP growth, then the program was a success.  According to Recovery.gov, a total of $80 billion has been paid out so far.  Considering the GDP declined by $200 billion in Q4 2008 and $170 billion in Q1 2009, $80 billion of government spending plus any multiplier effect is going to have a substantial positive impact on GDP.  The main problem here being that the government didn't spend the money fast enough (most of the money will be spent over the next two fiscal years).

If the goal was long term economic stability, the ARRA has failed horribly.  The US economy is broken.  Consumers spending on debt can only drive the economy for so long.  Now that this has caused a major financial crisis, the plan seems to be for the government to spend on debt in order to get consumers back spending on debt again.  The result is only that we've managed to push the day of reckoning a bit further back.  The US did great in the 50's when it exported goods and in the 90's when it exported technology.  Obama has proposed exporting green technology as the next big thing.  I'm not sure if this will work, but it doesn't seem like he really followed through with this.

I'm a progressively minded individual and I don't mind the government spending a trillion dollars such that I have to pay high taxes for years to come.  I just wish that the trillion dollars had bought more than a short term fix.

Also Temade, Fannie and Freddie shouldn't have gotten so heavily involved in the subprime mess, and democrats and Congress are probably to blame for pressuring them to do so.  However, I don't think you can blame Fannie and Freddie for the larger melt down.  Many other banks were involved in bundling shady mortgages and using credit default swaps far removed from anything democrats did.  Additionally, as described above, the debt driven economy is the fundamental problem and both parties have failed to do anything to fix it.

It also seems like a stretch to blame democrats for that bill from 9/2003 failing to pass.  Republicans controlled both houses and the presidency.  They could have gotten it through, even if they needed to tie it to an appropriations bill.
August 25, 2009 4:06 PM
 

Temade said:

I started selling new homes back in 1978, therefore have kept up on financing, including FNMA, FHA, VA, and nonconforming conventional loans, the later which were funded by independent investors and required more down payment and slightly higher interest rates. Things got tighter in the 80s, with assumability just about dissappearing. Second mortgages for large equities got hard to get then too. When pressure to ease up on credit came about, that's when I suddenly saw 100% loans based on credit only, 80/20 loans with no mortgage insurance. Low document loan...on and on. I personally think the "pressure" brought about a new atmosphere to do creative loans that got out of hand. Those subprime loans of such low quality should not have been out there in such large quanties. "Hey, set up a payment plan with those bad credit blemishes, get a letter from them, get the loan and stop paying on them once you close on the house. That created the huge subprime market.
August 28, 2009 1:56 PM
 

Temade said:

I just reread the original question. Laugh! I think the TARP money was needed to free up credit. The "Stimulus Package" was Obama letting the liberal congress go wild with our money. It was the most horrible idea possible. No job creation even attempted. Obama thinks rich Americans can be taxed to pay for anything. Why not throw in massive health care spending on them at the worst possible time? He seems to have that welfare state mentality. Layoffs and loss of confidence is what I see. Credit is no good with no business profits. Vote the Harry Reid, Pelosi types out fast!
August 29, 2009 9:47 AM
 

mikeysos said:

TARP is working.  We have gained trillions in the stock market since President Obama grabbed the reigns.  Housing numbers and building numbers are growing steadily each month.

I recycle aluminum even though I command a six figure salary.  In early 2008 aluminum cans went for about 80 cents per pound.  They dropped to around .25 cents and now are climbing - ever slowly - to around .40 -.50 cents.  Could be supply and demand but TARP is really important when it comes to Bank of America and CITIGroup still existing. FNM and FRE still existing.  

I believe all the government did was get a MASSIVE loan to cover its MASSIVE screw up. THose complaining for the last 7 months should have been smart enough to hedge their increased TAX burden by investing in FRE and FNM and BAC and even C. since the government will not let them fail.  FRE stayed below a buck for months.  Instead of buying cokes and smoking cigarettes a $200 investment over the last 7 months would have tripled.

Winners win. Leaders lead.  Become leaders. Get over the President winning. INstead, do something to increase your value and your worth.  Anything else sounds like whining.  I hated the Bush Administration but I did not let that consume me to inaction.

Go Obama, Pelosi, Frank. Dems.  Do your 8 years and if you are good at what you do the country will be better. If not, we will vote your butts out and start over again.  The whiners will whine and wth winners will win no matter who is in office.
August 29, 2009 2:04 PM
 

Temade said:

You are complaining too much. LOL!
August 31, 2009 4:39 PM
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