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The Zecco Inside Scoop

Have We Hit the Bottom?

I wanted to take a moment to reflect on the crazy markets we’re facing these days and consider whether the financial sector has hit bottom, or worse is yet to come.


It’s pretty shocking to see old established financial institutions like  Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae stumbling. And it would have been unfathomable two years ago to suggest Citigroup would have to raise tens of billions of dollars from foreign investors to maintain liquidity. These have been extraordinary times for sure.

 

Online Free Stock Trades - Freddie


Not everyone necessarily views the current volatility as a bad thing. It appears many people are seeing the down market as an opportunity to get in on the action. New trading accounts at Zecco Trading spiked up 27% after the DOW fell below 11,000. At the same time options trading at Zecco Trading is up 11%. We have seen a slight dip in Equity trades, indicating that some people may not be as active in these crazy times.


And despite the instability and uncertainty in the financial sector, investors are actively trading "government endorsed” lenders like Fannie and Freddie


Online Free Stock Trades - BullBear

Many investors are riding the overall sector volatility by  trading ETFs like Ultrashort Russel 1000 Growth Proshares


There is also a ton of talk about the banking sector on the Zecco forums. Some members, like Beezerlm and growth investor.Andy. think financials are a good buy. In defense of his purchase of Citigroup, .Andy. said he subscribes to the “buy low, sell high” theory and advises his fellow investors to “jump in” when everyone else is “running away.” Others are not so bullish and are either steering clear of financials or shorting them, like fundamental investor Lucasjkr. Technical trader Jackg1606 recently posted his opinion that financial stocks will decline in value by about 75-90% of their current price as of 7/31/08. Others, like ZeccoShare member Rayca disagree and think the worst of the mortgage debacle is behind us. We’ll just have to wait and see.


For those who are not sure what your opinion is check out our topics pages for tips on How to Thrive in a Bear Market.


If you do have an opinion, I'm curious to hear it.  Where do you stand? What’s your strategy for riding out a bear market?

 


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All content in the Zecco community is provided for educational and informational purposes only, does not constitute a recommendation to enter in any securities transactions or to engage in any of the investment strategies presented in such content, and does not represent the opinions of Zecco Holdings or its employees.  Your use of the Zecco Community is conditioned to your acceptance of all disclosures and Terms of Service.
 
* Zecco Holdings, Inc. is not a broker-dealer.  All securities and investments are offered through Zecco Trading, Inc., member FINRA / SIPC.  Zecco Trading customers with at least $2500 receive 10 free stock trades per month, and $4.50 per trade otherwise.

 

Published Thursday, August 07, 2008 12:37 AM by Jeroen Veth - CEO
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Comments

 

madjay said:

Very interesting post.  It is very difficult to say what is going to happen but my personal opinion is that we are in a short term uptrend but long term bear market.  I have no idea how high or low the market will go so I just watch different indicators like put/call ratio, vix, investor bullish/bearish sentiments to help.  Between the housing market, financial system crisis, inflation/stagflation and our growing deficit we could be in a long term bear market.  I don't like to buy stocks/etfs at their very bottom because they can go down further.  A well known trader (Bernard Baruch, I think) said :  I never buy buy a stock too low and I never sell a stock too high.  I try to follow that approach.  I am no expert - maybe I can speak confidently after I reach the top 20% or the top 5%.  
August 6, 2008 10:58 PM
 

MC Moore$ said:

Madjay - Thanks for the comment.  I agree that it's hard to know when to get in and when to get out.  I think working as a team with other ZeccoShare investors might help us get in a little earlier and stay in a little longer though.  I'm curious what other people have to say about this too.

ZeccoShare Community MC
August 7, 2008 12:36 AM
 

lucasjkr said:

I'm trying to take a longer term view on everything. The fact is, I'm 33, so i have MANY earning years ahead of me before retirement. There is the argument that its really painful to try to "catch a falling knife", as you usually won't and the market will sink further than the bottom at which you thought you were making your purchases. But I'd much rather be buying now and losing money in the process, only to have positions staked out in companies if and when all this passes. If you wait for the market to look strong, you're buying at or near the peak.

And yes, financials seem horrible all the way around right now. We have to get used to the idea that it's going to take a WHILE for them to get a new business footing. So much money was made writing mortgages and packaging CDO's the last few years and that market has evaporated. Though I am longer in them than short (PNSN, NYM, UYG vs. SKF), i fully expect to take more losses in the short term as i lower my basis on each of them. SKF is there just to protect against the apocalypse, i guess.
August 7, 2008 10:16 AM
 

.Andy. said:

I do like the idea of buy low sell high. I am looking long term and I think that atleast Citigroup is a buy this low if you have the time to wait for it to climb back up. That is why I currently own C. With that said I also think we have to have patient to reap the benefits of financials.
So while I do have a play on C, I am not putting a lot of eggs in that basket because at the current time I think there are much better plays.
August 7, 2008 5:53 PM
 

The Hobbit said:

Buy low and sell high is a great concept. However, when the market goes down, all stocks go down. So why would you buy badly managed companies like Citibank or General Motors when you can pick up greatly managed companies that are also on sale? I advocate sticking with the best of breed stocks no matter what the market is doing.  
August 7, 2008 9:04 PM
 

beyondestiny said:

Capital doesn't create itself. That's part of reason financial sector blew out by attempting outsmart themselves. IMHO, it's once-in-a-decade chance to pick up some easy $$$. Market always behaves irrational out of rational because panic and greed. Just don't buy the tricks.

My picks (of financial sector) FRE, SFI, ACF

CAUTION: You may lose part or all of your investment and always balance your portfolio and exposure within your own tolerance level. Nothing is impossible (Oh, no...I didn't get paid for saying this)
August 8, 2008 5:01 AM
 

chivo101 said:

When the markets go down, most stocks go down, good companies and bad. The good ones get punished and you can get great prices, as long s you have a bottoms up approach to individual companies and can stay in the market for 5 years. I have been adding long positions since january and I'm not done yet!
August 8, 2008 10:42 AM
 

ZaddY said:

Maybe its time to just invest in dividend stocks, even though they are down... chances are they will not lose as much value as other stocks that don't pay dvidends... just my 2 cents..
August 12, 2008 8:00 PM
 

fabreu30 said:

monthly dividend look nice in my account every month.
August 13, 2008 9:58 PM
 

beezerlm said:

Just got some C and AIG in the last dip/rebound. Bought low and sold high. Hoping for another dip in C because it always seems to make its way back up to $20.
September 21, 2008 10:54 AM
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The Zecco Inside Scoop
The Zecco Inside Scoop is a regular chat with Jeroen Veth, CEO of Zecco Holdings, Inc. You’ll get his first-hand account of what we’re doing at Zecco to give you the ultimate investing experience. So grab a cup of coffee and join Jeroen every week for his take on all things Zecco.

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