In volatile markets most investors ignore
simple tools and strategies for staying focused.
So how do you
stay calm about your investments when the market seems to be going crazy?
With a
nervous market and economy, it's a good time for a refresher in one of the most
basic but helpful practices an investor can do for themselves.
Before
buying an investment, think of all the reasons for buying it . Even pull out a
sheet of paper and write down all of the factors that were important in your
decision.
Effectively,
you are articulating everything you like, as well as what you expect the
investment to deliver in terms of performance and volatility.
So if you
are looking at a mutual fund, you will have a variety of characteristics to
write down. It might get good ratings from Morningstar, past performance over
short- and long-term periods, a minimum initial investment you can afford, etc.
In stocks,
it's all of the basic characteristics you’re looking for. It might be a solid
balance sheet, no debt, earnings stability, a leading position in its sector
and industry. It might also be the bullish recommendation of an expert or
analyst or the diversification that the investment adds to your portfolio.
Want to
do it like the pros?
Most pros
look at 8 fundamental factors:
-
Positive
earnings
-
Positive
earnings surprises
-
Increasing
sales growth
-
Expanding
operating margins
-
Strong
cash flow
-
Earnings
growth
-
Positive
earnings momentum
-
High
return on equity.
For a stock
to be worth buying, five of those eight characteristics need to be present;
when a stock changes over time and it falls below that minimum threshold, it
gets sold.
For
options, the above is not that crucial because you can also profit from a down
market. Here it is important to look at the overall trend of the broad market
and the underlying stock for a specific option before you decide what options
to buy, either calls or puts.
Whereas
stocks and mutual funds have an unlimited lifetime, unless of course the
company goes broke, options do have a limited life because they expire after
some time. So that’s why, if you buy options, never go against the trend
because “the trend is your friend”! With stocks and mutual funds you can always
sit out a crash or a bear market. But with options it becomes more and more
difficult the longer the market trend goes in the opposite direction of your
trade.
Laying out
the selection criteria lets you know specifically what's in place, and what's
not.
At the end
of the day, writing down your reasons for making an investment also cements
your feelings about the money you are putting into it. If you start the process
and then feel like the reasons are stupid then perhaps it's time to change your
investment strategy or selection criteria.
If, on the
other hand, what you wrote down on your sheet is a good representation of your
thinking and demonstrates that you have reasonable expectations and reinforces
your belief that your methodology will stand up over time, then you can go
ahead and make the purchase.
But what do
we do if we're still nervous? Try to recall your thinking at the time of
purchase, and come up with conditions that would have you buying the investment
again today. If you can't convince yourself that you would buy it again, you
have a clear sign that you shouldn't be quite so calm about your investments,
because something is not quite right and it's time to make a change.
Another
thing one should always do. And I mean ALWAYS (!!!) especially if you are an
options and short-term trader! Always set a trailing stop!
A trailing
stop is a stop order than can be placed with % or $ limits. The limit slides up with the
stock. So if you set a $1 trail when you buy a stock at $50 the exit takes place automatically
at $49. If the stock moves up to $55 then the exit would automatically be at $54
protecting a $4 profit that you've made should the market consolidate or even
crash.
The other
way around would be if you bought a stock just before the market goes down
which
is always
annoying! Then, taking the above example, your stock would get sold at $49
making you only a loss of $1 per stock instead of a lot more.
So in other
words, if the price gets to the trigger (trail price), it activates the trade
and then gets you out at the then market price. A trailing stop is a disaster averter and protects against major
losses. A trailing stop also does not limit upside profits, because it follows
the price of the option premium.
At the
latest, as your trade makes profits, use a trailing stop. By doing so, you
should look at an approximate 20-25% trailing stop.
And if all
else fails and you’re still not sure whether to trade or not, then don’t! Don’t
make the same mistakes hundreds and thousands of traders and investors do every
day falling into the same pitfalls as many before them.
Just sit
back and relax because market storms provide many new opportunities after the
dust has settled. They are also a good time to pull in the sails and make for
port.
In volatile
markets I always back off to see if the waves of panic will settle down before
making new trading commitments whether short on long.
Yours in
Successful Trading
Ricky
Schmidt
www.tradingpitfalls.com