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Wall Street showed another hard day of losses as investors quickly start selling when quarterly earnings were reported. Major indexes fell more than 4% with Dow Jones tumbling down 515 points.
With negative profits forecast, jump in a dollar and lower oil prices may even more slow down economy even if lending crises stabilize. Because dollar hit high against other major currencies this brings higher cost for commodities.
Government with bailout packages is easing credit crises but with negative third quarter results reported by many companies, the outlook of U.S economy may not be good as everyone initially thought.
Market analysts were saying many times that we hit market bottom as stock lost 30 percent of their value. However, the true bottom may not happen until early 2009.
So far many banks are still freezing credit and not letting companies borrow money for day to day operations. If banks allow borrowing this would free up companies to do some spending. With spending on both sides from companies to consumer level would give a better understanding as where the economy will be heading in next 6-8 months. Government with its second bailout package of $450 billion proposed another round of rebate checks that were similar to early rebates of $600-$1200 early this year.
The idea how economy is doing and if credit market has improved will be in fourth quarter earnings. Investors are scared as August, September and October are difficult months. It is expected that consumer will slow down spending this holiday season as well; however after holiday saving may bring a better results.
There needs to be a continued series of positive signs to indicate that Wall Street has successfully passed its negativity.
Even with $300 billon project called Hope for Homeowners that passed in July is literally not making any progress or many people forgot about it.
Many homeowners who had sought help are being told that details haven't been worked out yet and who knows when the details will come out. There will be more and more foreclosures on the horizon.
Hope for Homeowners promised to save 400,000 foreclosures over the next three years, but several millions of foreclosures are expected and program is still not working. The program aims to help homeowner to refinance them into fixed 30 year mortgage loan. It requires lenders be willing to substitute existing mortgages for new ones written to 90 percent of the new appraised value of the homes, in effect making lenders put up 10 percent equity.
This program may be too little to late as there might be around 2 million foreclosures by the end of 2009.
Because of banks tough guidelines many new homebuyers and investors need at least 700 credit score. While many have 580-600 credit score which does not help as banks will not be lending to those borrowers. If banks were willing to lend money for borrowers with 580 score, this would open up sales in housing and housing market can stabilize as home prices would improve.
The program itself Home for Homeowners needs to be worked out in details as homeowner and government may take months to get approved. But as this is talking longer and longer, many homeowners needs help right now. And help is not coming just yet.
Many investors welcome this program as another part to avoid foreclosure, but this program might be used after government exhausts all possible opportunities and second bailout package is in discussions.
So far only 80 lenders have signed for this program and training for the industry will start next month. Borrowers who are able to stay in their homes as a result of this program will forfeit at least 50 percent of future home value appreciation to the government.
Government does not have the manpower to handle all borrowers at the same time but there is a talk to allow bankruptcy judges to alter mortgages under this program.
In some cases government would have to buy the mortgage of a lien holder or jointly underwrite it directly with an investor.
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