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Purely Technicals' Blog

PT: Nightly Commentary

Purely Technical Nightly Commentary (Oct 25, 2006):

Good Evening,

In tonight's article, we'll take a look at an article that was featured in this past weekend's issue of the Purely Technical Weekly Newsletter. (You can access the full version by clicking here)

Agricultural Sector – Sprouting Long-Term Buy Signals?

The agricultural segment of the commodities markets has been experiencing a painful decline over the past decade or so. Recent developments, however, might be suggesting that a change in the long-term trend is afoot.

Unfortunately, stock traders might not be privy to many vehicles through which to play this trade; except for maybe the rare exchange traded ETF, such as the Agriculture DJ-AIGCI ETFS that trades on the London Stock Exchange. Futures traders, of course, have access to futures contracts on the underlying commodities that comprise these indices.

 

 

DJAAG, the Agriculture Sub-Index of the Dow Jones-AIG Commodity Index, comprises of Soybeans, Corn, Wheat, Cotton, Sugar, Coffee and Soybean Oil. This index has been in a secular bear market for the past decade or so. The price action over a part of this huge descent can be witnessed in the 7-year weekly chart shown above.

Recently, price has been able to find support at the level of the 2002-lows (at 52.50) and bounce nicely to 60.0. In the process, it has broken a 2-year bull wedge and is targeting a move to 70.0. Such a move would not, on its own, signal a completion of the secular bear market in this commodity index. It would take a move above the 2004- reaction high of 82.0, in order for that to happen.

We’ll keep a close eye on this index and report any significant developments, as soon as they arise.

 

Have a Great Trading Day!

 

Asher Pinto

TheMarketMessenger.com

 

Disclaimer:

 

This material has been provided for your informational purposes only. It does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy any security or financial product that may be referenced herein. Further, the information contained in this informational newsletter does not constitute investment advice or investment advisory services. All securities trading, whether in stocks, options, or other investment vehicles, is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. We shall not be held responsible for any losses incurred as a result of the use of any information provided herein. You are strongly encouraged to seek personal advice from your professional investment advisor and to make independent investigations before acting on any information that we publish. 

 

 

Published Thursday, October 26, 2006 6:45 PM by Purely Technical
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