Wednesday Morning, April 25th
Ice Man Kudos:
Your site is coming along extremely nice. I am impressed with the content. Your site is an "arsenal". Key word - that any trader, investor, swing trader should have. - H.
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I have been listening to the Iceman for about a year. I have been to Boot Camp and was able to see just how he operates. Without a doubt, he is one of the hardest working person I have ever witnessed. Most people couldn't last a week trying to do what he does. He lives, eats, and breaths stock trading.
I have benefited tremendously from his stock picks and commentaries. Not every one of them will be home runs. But when he does hit it right, they don't just go out of the park they go into orbit. I feel extremely fortunate that I was able to meet him personally and to get to know a bit about him.
I would like people to realize that there are always risks to trading stocks, and you must always manage that risk in your positions. The Iceman always specifies which plays are speculative, and which he thinks are best bets. But as always there are no guarantees.
Thank you, Iceman. Stay well and keep up your good work.
S. P.
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Dow Jones
News
:
BA - receives a $4B order from U.S. Airways;
MRK Merck HSBC Securities Price Target Raised Underweight $42 to $45;
MCD McDonald's Banc of America Sec Price Target Raised Buy $49 to $55;
Breakouts the Ice Man may consider trading:
ENTG - 12 - Best Bet
TDW - 62.80
Depressed stocks the Ice Man may buy or short to the gap:
HMIN - Breaking 30 * Best Bet
AUY - 13.60 Gap
IVN - 11.70 Gap
Dollar Man Ideas:
PUDC - 1.52 Bid
YMI - 2.10
CLWT - curling up on 60 minute chart
Cramer's Comments:
Bullish: KOP, TRN, DRI, KO;
Gorilla Trades:
New Potential Buys:
ViaSat (VSAT): ABOVE $33.26, with a $36.50 first target, a $46 second target, and a $30 stop loss. Confirmation Volume Area= 150K Risk Rating = 5
Richard the Break-out Buyer Video Summary:
Break out buy watch list for short term gains April 25 includes: LINTA, GLDN, CREE, IBM, OPSW, AATI, MNCP, ONNN, MET, PX, ENTG.
Several candidates for break out or pullback plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out on good volume and selling at least some on the first day.
Swing Man Market Recap:
by Steve Nelson
The market opened slightly higher yesterday but started to pullback right from the start. At 10:00 the March new home sales were reported sharply lower and the market continued lower on the news. Within the next hour the market became much oversold and started to bounce higher as the semiconductors began to rally hard. They effectively carried the NDX to post new bull market highs, and the Dow managed to eke out a new high as well. At the close the SPX/NAZ ended mixed while the Dow/NDX gained 0.35%. Today will probably be an interesting day with March Durable Goods Orders on schedule for 8:30, a Bernanke speech at 10:00, and the Beige Book release at 2:00.
It is amazing to watch this day after day but the Nasdaq just can’t seem to make much headway. If I told you the SOX would be up nearly 15 points, would you believe the Nasdaq was up less than 1 point? I guess traders/investors are shunning heavy risk these days. I’m sure the recent bear market still weighs heavily on the masses that seem to prefer lower beta, lower P/E, and higher dividend plays. In addition, there remains a cloud over several tech stocks regarding improper behavior over backdating of stock options. The Dow/SPX have broken out but the Nasdaq has been unable to make the move as yet. The lesson from all this is to put your assets to work where they will perform the best versus hoping for good plays. The charts make this absolutely clear.
Again, the market refused to sell off yesterday. The breadth though was not very strong and that’s a concern when some indices are at/near resistance as well as overbought. Hard to believe the Nasdaq can be considered overbought the way it has lagged. The market churned in placed yesterday on heavy volume. Truthfully, the market could benefit to sell off some before making another attempt at higher prices. Several indices are in the process of forming handles off their recently developed cup patterns. The process are carving out handles helps to unwind some of the overbought conditions and better positions the markets to advance with fortitude.
In summary, there is nothing wrong with being long but be aware that some red flags exist. Continue to find objective plays and you will avoid some potential pitfalls going forward. Finally, I suggest everyone take some time to review their portfolios to determine if they are meeting your objectives.
Good Trading.
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CNBC Fast Money Review:
1. The Top 3
The Amazing Chip Stock Breakout
Strazzini: Chip stocks at cyclical bottom. Analysts upgrading. 20% upside
potential in 9 months. Likes TSM, SNDK, BRCM, NSM, INTC.
Macke: Hedge funds buying chip stocks.
Bolling: Investors could be late to game. Likes WFR.
Adami: AMD along for ride today.
JetBlue's New Flight Plan
Macke: Likes JBLU ceo.
Strazzini: Headwinds for JBLU.
Adami: JBLU at 14 times forward earnings. Not cheap.
Bolling: Jet fuel up 25%. Huge problem for airlines.
Come Sail Away
Bolling: Likes ALEX, DRYS - hitting on all cylinders.
Strazzini: Likes QMAR.
Macke: Likes SSW.
Adami: Likes SFL. Buy on dips.
2. Stockonomics
Profiting From Housing Trends, Gaming
Adami: TOL inventory half from 4 months ago.
Bolling: Likes BYI.
3. Take Your Position
Playing Oil Ahead of Earnings
Bolling: BP missed earnings today. Stay away from big oil. Can't keep up
with production.
Adami: XOM has run its course.
4. Word on the Street
Amazin Amazon
Macke: Not bullish on AMZN, but good quarter for company.
Sun Sets
Strazzini: Missed sales estimates. Third biggest server manufacturer in
midst of turnaround. Buy at $5.50.
Macke: Buy SUNW on dips.
Unplug Your Power Play
Bolling: Take profits on AEP, AES.
Iacocca on Toyota
Adami: TM will pass GM in sales. TM is better run company.
Calling on Borrowed Time
Strazzini: VG legal victory today. Don't chase stock. Stay away.
Corn Stock Soars
Bolling: CPO up 10% today. Buy it.
Off Target
Macke: TGT significant revenue miss today. Wait till back-to-school season
to get back into retail.
Apple's Rollercoaster
Adami: Options probe wont affect AAPL. Steve Jobs will be protected.
5. Face 2 Face
Danielle from PA - Energy sector?
Bolling: Buy coal - BTU, ACI.
Tom from NC - MON, DD?
Strazzini: Likes chemical space - high margins. Likes DD more than MON.
Adriana from NY - COH?
Macke: Buy COH on dips.
6. Sea Change
Derivative Boom Or Doom?
Bolling: Derivatives are a boom. Own the exchanges.
Adami: Buy NMX.
Strazzini: Buy GS - best on institutional side. Buy MER - best on retail
side.
Macke: Buy GS.
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Breaking
News
:
RSH - negatively mentioned in today’s Wall Street Journal;
Oil services provider Baker Hughes Inc. said Wednesday its first-quarter profit climbed 10 percent on increased revenue. Net income rose to $374.7 million, or $1.17 per share, from $339.2 million, or 99 cents per share, in the year-ago period. Quarterly revenue rose to $2.47 billion, up 20 percent from $2.06 billion in the prior year. The company said North America revenue was up 3 percent despite weaker-than-expected rig count in Canada. Outside North America revenue reflected continued activity expansion, offset by a seasonal decline in direct sales and Russian activity. Analysts polled by Thomson Financial were expecting earnings of $1.10 per share on sales of $2.41 billion.
M&A Activity:
Merrill Lynch said it will acquire a $2.9 billion stake in Resona in a deal that marks the largest investment ever by a foreign company in a Japanese bank.
Jarden Corporation (JAH) and K2 Inc. (KTO) today announced they have signed a definitive merger agreement pursuant to which Jarden will acquire K2. Under the terms of the agreement, Jarden will pay $10.85 per share of K2 common stock in cash and will issue 0.1086 of a share of Jarden common stock (subject to adjustment as provided in the merger agreement) for each share of K2 common stock outstanding as of the closing. The cash and Jarden stock to be issued in the transaction has a combined value of approximately $15.50 per K2 share, based on the closing price of Jarden common stock on the date of signing the merger agreement. The total enterprise value of the transaction, including the assumption or repayment of indebtedness, is approximately $1.2 billion. The transaction is expected to be accretive to Jarden's earnings and to close early in the third quarter of this year.
A consortium of Banks led by Royal Bank of Scotland took a shot at breaking up ABN Amro's agreed sale to Barclays by making a contingent offer valued at about $103.75 billion, higher than Barclay's offer. - WSJ
IPO Central:
OceanFreight Inc. (OCNF) said that its initial public offering of 10.75 million shares has been priced at $19 a share. In addition OceanFreight has granted the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional 1,612,500 shares to cover over-allotments. The joint bookrunners for the offering were Banc of America Securities and Cantor Fitzgerald & Co. Oppenheimer & Co., Ferris, Baker Watts and Fortis Securities acted as co-managers. - MarketWatch
Economic Data:
8:30 Durable Orders
10:00 New Home Sales
10:30 Crude Inventories
2:00 Fed’s Beige Book
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recent stock split announcements:
Today Varian Semiconductor Equipment Associates, Inc. (Ticker: VSEA) announced that its board of directors approved a 3 for 2 stock split.
On April 18, AptarGroup, Inc. (NYSE:ATR) announced that its board of directors approved a 2:1 stock split to be distributed on or about May 9, 2007.
On April 19, Meridian Bioscience, Inc. (Nasdaq:VIVO) announced that its board of directors approved a 3:2 stock split to be payable on May 11, 2007.
On April 20, Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina, Inc. (Nasdaq:PEBK) announced that its board of directors approved a 3:2 stock split. Details are pending.
The following is a list of companies that have previously announced stock splits which become effective in the next several trading days. For additional details, please see our Stock Split Calendar.
Ex-Date Split Symbol Company
4/27 2:1 VLGEA Village Super Market, Inc.
5/7 2:1 AZZ AZZ incorporated
5/7 5:4 INMD Integramed America, Inc.
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Aerospace
LMT Lockheed Martin CIBC Wrld Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Outperform $105 to $108
NOC Northrop Grumman Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Mkt Perform $72 to $75
Airlines - Passenger
JBLU Jetblue Airways Calyon Securities Downgraded from Add to Neutral $14 to $11
JBLU Jetblue Airways Bear Stearns Downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform
Aluminum Mining
AL Alcan Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Mkt Perform $50 to $55
Apparel
VFC V.F. Corp Credit Suisse Price Target Raised Neutral $82 to $93
Biotech
CVTX CV Therapeutics First Albany Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
CVTX CV Therapeutics Cantor Fitzgerald Price Target Raised Buy $29 to $36
SGEN Seattle Genetics Needham & Co Price Target Raised Buy $10 to $12
SGEN Seattle Genetics RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Outperform $9 to $12
Broadcasting
LNET LodgeNet Bear Stearns Upgraded from Peer Perform to Outperform
CCU Clear Channel CIBC Wrld Mkts Coverage Dropped
CDL Citadel Broadcasting CIBC Wrld Mkts Coverage Dropped
CMLS Cumulus Media CIBC Wrld Mkts Coverage Dropped
ETM Entercom CIBC Wrld Mkts Coverage Dropped
ROIAK Radio One Cl D CIBC Wrld Mkts Coverage Dropped
SIRI Sirius Satellite CIBC Wrld Mkts Coverage Dropped
XMSR XM Satellite CIBC Wrld Mkts Coverage Dropped
Business Services
MTCT MTC Tech BB&T Capital Mkts Upgraded from Underweight to Hold
PFWD Phase Forward Brean Murray Price Target Raised Buy $15 to $17
PFWD Phase Forward Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Mkt Perform $13 to $15
EXBD Corp Exec Bd Deutsche Securities Downgraded from Buy to Hold
EXBD Corp Exec Bd Friedman Billings Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform $110 to $70
EXBD Corp Exec Bd Credit Suisse Cut Price Target Neutral $84 to $65
RVBD Riverbed Technology Piper Jaffray Upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform
RVBD Riverbed Technology Robert W. Baird Price Target Raised Underperform $25 to $28
Chemicals
ALB Albemarle KeyBanc Capital Mkts Upgraded from Hold to Buy $47
ALB Albemarle Jefferies & Co Upgraded from Hold to Buy $45 to $50
Computer Hardware
NICE Nice Systems RBC Capital Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform $36 to $45
OMCL Omnicell First Albany Price Target Raised Strong Buy $23 to $27
HTCH Hutchinson JP Morgan Downgraded from Overweight to Underweight
LXK Lexmark Citigroup Downgraded from Buy to Hold
SANM Sanmina-SCI CIBC Wrld Mkts Downgraded from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform
SINT SI International Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
BHE Benchmark Elec RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Outperform $30 to $28
Computer Services
CKFR CheckFree Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $38 to $35
Computer Software
VRNT Verint Systems Friedman Billings Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform $35
ATVI Activision Banc of America Sec Price Target Raised Buy $20 to $22
WBSN Websense RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Perform $22 to $25
THQI THQ Inc Banc of America Sec Downgraded from Buy to Neutral $36
VRNT Verint Systems RBC Capital Mkts Downgraded from Outperform to Sector Perform $42 to $34
WBSN Websense Credit Suisse Downgraded from Outperform to Neutral $26
Construction
JEC Jacobs Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Mkt Perform $48 to $52
Entertainment
TWX Time Warner CIBC Wrld Mkts Coverage Dropped
Environmental Prod
WCN Waste Connections Friedman Billings Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform $30 to $38
Finance Companies
AACC Asset Acceptance Capital Bear Stearns Upgraded from Underperform to Peer Perform
EEFT Euronet Piper Jaffray Downgraded from Outperform to Market Perform
Foods
DAR Darling International Inc Morgan Joseph Initiated at Buy $10
Gaming Operations
ISLE Isle of Capri Wachovia Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform
SHFL Shuffle Master Roth Capital Cut Price Target Hold $22 to $18
Healthcare
FRX Forest Labs RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Perform $53 to $55
FRX Forest Labs Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Outperform $62 to $64
FRX Forest Labs First Albany Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
PMTI Palomar Medical Lazard Capital Upgraded from Hold to Buy
INO Inovio Biomed Thomas Weisel Initiated at Overweight $8
SMBI Symbion Jefferies & Co Downgraded from Buy to Hold $26 to $23
Heavy Machinery
CR Crane Friedman Billings Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform $47
Hotels and Motels
HIH Highland Hospitality RBC Capital Mkts Downgraded from Outperform to Sector Perform $20 to $19.50
Household Goods
WHR Whirlpool Citigroup Upgraded from Sell to Hold
Insurance
PRE PartnerRe Ferris Baker Watts Price Target Raised Buy $81 to $82
BER W.R. Berkley Ferris Baker Watts Cut Price Target Buy $42 to $39
Internet Auction Srvcs
LQDT Liquidity Services Stifel Nicolaus Upgraded from Hold to Buy $21
Manufacturing
ASD American Standard Lehman Brothers Upgraded from Equal-weight to Overweight
ENR Energizer Prudential Price Target Raised Neutral $90 to $100
HXL Hexcel Stifel Nicolaus Price Target Raised Buy $24 to $26
PH Parker-Hannifin Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Outperform $98 to $101
Mining - Steel & Iron
IPS IPSCO CIBC Wrld Mkts Downgraded from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform $145 to $150
Motor Vehicles
KAR ADESA KeyBanc Capital Mkts Coverage Dropped
Multi-National Banks
ABN ABN AMRO JP Morgan Downgraded from Overweight to Neutral
Oil and Gas
SM St. Mary Lnd/Expl Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Upgraded from Neutral to Buy $38 to $44
WLL Whiting Petroleum Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Upgraded from Reduce to Neutral $34 to $41
CLB Core Labs RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Perform $92 to $96
CLB Core Labs Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Outperform $122 to $124
ESV Ensco RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Perform $57 to $62
ESV Ensco Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Outperform $79 to $80
PCZ Petro-Canada Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Mkt Perform $48 to $51
SXL Sunoco Logistics Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Overweight to Underweight
BJS BJ Services Friedman Billings Coverage Dropped
Regional Banks
TCB TCF Financial RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Outperform $28 to $29
SUSQ Susquehanna Bank Stifel Nicolaus Initiated at Sell
Restaurants
CAKE Cheesecake Factory KeyBanc Capital Mkts Upgraded from Hold to Buy $32
EAT Brinker JP Morgan Downgraded from Overweight to Neutral
Retail Trade
AAP Advance Auto Stifel Nicolaus Upgraded from Hold to Buy $48
AMZN Amazon.com BWS Financial Upgraded from Hold to Buy $32 to $65
AMZN Amazon.com Cowen & Co Upgraded from Underperform to Neutral
AMZN Amazon.com Piper Jaffray Upgraded from Underperform to Market Perform
AMZN Amazon.com Citigroup Upgraded from Sell to Hold
EZPW EZCORP Roth Capital Upgraded from Hold to Buy $16.50 to $20
LTD Limited Jefferies & Co Upgraded from Hold to Buy $30 to $35
AMZN Amazon.com Banc of America Sec Price Target Raised Buy $48 to $62
AMZN Amazon.com Stifel Nicolaus Price Target Raised Buy $45 to $55
LTD Limited Credit Suisse Price Target Raised Neutral $28 to $32
Security Systems
ID L-1 Identity Solutions JP Morgan Downgraded from Neutral to Underweight
Semiconductors
AATI Advanced Analogic Tech Jefferies & Co Upgraded from Hold to Buy $6.50 to $8.50
EGLT Eagle Test Systems Banc of America Sec Price Target Raised Buy $20 to $23
ZRAN Zoran RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Outperform $21 to $25
ACTL Actel AG Edwards Downgraded from Buy to Hold
CYMI Cymer Needham & Co Downgraded from Buy to Hold
CYMI Cymer Banc of America Sec Downgraded from Buy to Neutral $48 to $41
LDIS Leadis Tech Needham & Co Downgraded from Buy to Hold
SSTI Silicon Storage WR Hambrecht Downgraded from Hold to Sell $3.50
Telecommunications
ALU Alcatel-Lucent Goldman Sachs Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
AXE Anixter Stifel Nicolaus Price Target Raised Buy $75 to $78
SWIR Sierra Wireless RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Perform $16 to $17
TNB Thomas & Betts Stifel Nicolaus Price Target Raised Buy $64 to $66
TNB Thomas & Betts Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Outperform $60 to $62.50
AVNX Avanex First Albany Initiated at Buy $2.25
CBB Cincinnati Bell Wachovia Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform
TLAB Tellabs Kaufman Bros Cut Price Target Buy $13.70 to $13
Transportation
BNI Burl Nrth Santa Fe Bear Stearns Downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform
BNI Burl Nrth Santa Fe Prudential Downgraded from Overweight to Neutral $92 to $89
CP Canadian Pacific CIBC Wrld Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform
CP Canadian Pacific JP Morgan Upgraded from Underweight to Neutral
ATB Arlington Tankers Cantor Fitzgerald Price Target Raised Hold $22 to $23
CHRW - upgraded to Buy at Merrill
Utilities
DTE DTE Energy Credit Suisse Upgraded from Underperform to Neutral $43 to $52
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