Wednesday Morning, December 12th
SITE NEWS
New IceMD Recording:
Tips to Protect Ourselves From Hospital Risks;
Dow Stock News
The Wall Street Journal writes that Citigroup (C) appointed Vikram Pandit as its CEO.
The Wall Street Journal reports that GE (GE) units NBC will give money back to advertisers who did not get all of the audience which they were promised for certain shows.
The Wall Street Journal writes that a slowdown in the US will hurt GE profits.
The Wall Street Journal also reports that Boeing (BA) says that its delayed 787 should be delivered by its new target date.
JPM - downgraded to Hold at Merrill
BA - downgraded to Market Weight at Morgan Stanley
T DBAB Price Target Raised to $50
Ice Man Stocks
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
T - held in well
GROW - 20
MCD - held in well
Depressed stocks the Ice Man may buy:
GOOG - 684.25 Gap
FRO - 44.70 Gap
EXM - 46.80 (20 DAY MA)
OSG - 68.75 Gap
BIDU - 354.30 (MA), 341.40 Gap
AFL - 57.20 Gap
PCAR - Pays $1 div on friday 75 Gap, 74 Gap
SPX - 1562.80 Gap
RUT - 752.15 Gap
COMPX - 2620 Gap
Breakdown Shorts:
DVA - Breaking 57
Media Commentators
Cramer's Comments:
Bullish: KO, PEP, MRK, MO, FMCN, BIDU, PTR, CHL, APD, CELG;
Ice Cold Commentators
Break Man Video Summary:
Break out buy (or short sell) watch list for short term gains December 12 includes:CHNR, ONXX, BWLD, STC, NCTY, VLCM, FORM, LEAP.
Several candidates for break out or short sell plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out (or selling the break down) on good volume and closing at least some on the first day.
Swing Man Market Recap:
The market opened slightly higher Tuesday morning and traded in a fairly narrow range during the morning hours. Just before the FED announcement the SPX was trading at a new high for the rally at 1524. At 2:15 the FED announced its decision to cut both the federal funds rate and discount rate by 25 basis points. In addition, the FED´s accompanying statement did not lead one to conclude they were going to be aggressive with future easing. A disappointed market reacted by dropping nearly 30 SPX points (200 Dow points) in just a few minutes after the release. The selling did not stop at these levels, it only continued right into the close. At the close the SPX/DOW were down 2.35% and the NDX/NAZ lost 2.45%. Bonds soared 2 points, Crude gained $1.40, and Gold slumped $9.00. Monday night, I wrote that the market would NOT react too kindly to a ¼ point cut especially if the FED statement was not deemed to be accommodative. The combination of today´s disappointing FED action and the market being overbought was the perfect recipe for a hard sell off and that´s exactly what occurred Tuesday.
Let me start out by stating that I don´t envy the position FED Chairman Bernanke finds himself dealing with these days. When making policy he must make difficult choices between containing inflation and spurring economic activity. He also is faced with a falling dollar which has created anxiety (lost confidence) from people around the world. Tuesday, he seemed to take the middle ground by cutting both rates by ¼ point and stating that inflation was still a concern. Needless to say, the market was not at all satisfied with the announcement. The market participants definitely wanted the FED to assure them that their primary focus was to address the slowing economy and current credit crunch. To show their dismay, traders immediately sold on the announcement and kept selling until the close. The selling resulted in a huge reversal down in the major indexes that inflicted some technical damage to the charts.
As you are aware, the SPX had previously broken out of a bullish inverse head and shoulders pattern and was trending higher for a few days coming into Tuesday´s announcement. While it was true that the market was near term overbought, the 1490 level on the SPX should have acted as a strong area of support. Instead, sellers were able to take out this level rather easily. When a major support level is taken out without a fight you have to respect the message the market is sending and believe me it´s not bullish. The market is currently fixated on the FED and it simply did not like what the FED had to say. As a result, the inverse head and shoulders pattern has been negated and we must now adjust to this failure. Therefore, we need to once again become much more defensive in our approach to these markets. The hope for bulls near term is that today was a blatant overreaction and that the market will immediately come roaring back since many of the major indexes still have support of their 20 day moving averages. Tomorrow, I will be watching closely to see how the market responds to support. If the rally is reflexive, it may provide an opportunity to position a trade short.
In summary, the market absolutely rebelled in what the FED said Tuesday. The selling was intense and this resulted in a breach of our SPX 1490 support area which raises a cautionary red flag over the near term. It´s far too early to predict anything longer term at this stage. For now, we must respect the message of the market and act accordingly. Let´s see how the market responds to support tomorrow and be prepared to act accordingly. Remember that capital preservation comes first so please keep things to a minimum until the picture becomes clear.
Good Trading.
CNBC Fast Money Review
1. FED DISAPPOINTS; MARKET SLAMMED
The headline: Fed Disappoints Traders Hoping For More Aggressive Interest Rate Cuts.
Dylan Ratigan explains The Fed cut both the funds rate and the discount rate by ¼ point. Now the fed funds rate stands at 4.25% and the discount rate stands at 4.75%.
Jeff Macke feels guidance from the Fed was “mealy’ and he sold COH on the news.
Karen Finerman says she doesn´t pay that much attention to the Fed. Instead she trades on valuation.
Steve Liesman reveals that the Fed might be considering alternative measures to address liquidity issues. He suggests Wall Street could be misreading Tuesday´s Fed decision as the only action that the Fed is taking.
2. FINANCIALS IN FLAMES AFTER FED
The headline: Brokers, Bond Insurers, and Money-Center Banks Pounded After Fed Decision.
Pete Najarian says there´s still a lot of uncertainty in the investment banks. Investors don´t know what the write-down numbers will be.
Jeff Macke says take financials off the table.
On a related note, Karen Finerman explains that Citi named Vikram Pandit as their brand new Chief Executive, Tuesday. She´s not sure why the stock dropped on the news.
Guy Adami thinks investors would have preferred to see someone from the outside take over the company.
3. THE BROTHERS GRIM
The headline: LEH releases quarterly earnings Thursday before the bell.
Karen Finerman explains that she´s done research and found that in the last quarter, Lehman moved $11 billion from “Tier 2’ to “Tier 3’ assets. She interprets that as a negative sign and she´s reiterates short LEH.
4. TOUGH TECH
The headline: Tech Shares Hold Tough On Strong Moves In T, TXN, CSCO.
Pete Najarian likes AT&T´s 13 billion buy back as well as their dividend. AT&T is doing everything right, he adds. Also “because the gadget revolution has just begun’ Najarian he likes CSCO and JNPR.
On a related note, Pete Najarian is cautious about the chipmakers, especially MU and RMBS.
Jeff Macke recommends buying T on any dip.
Guy Adami prefers INTC.
5. BIOGEN BOUGHT?
The headline: BIIB Currently Up For Sale - Pops Today On Virtually No News.
Pete Najarian explains that options investors are buying December options and selling July options. To him that suggests a deal could be imminent and he thinks it will be between $85 - $90 per share.
Karen Finerman adds that current speculation suggests either PFE or MRK could be the buyers.
Jeff Macke adds I don´t think it will be Merck.
6. POPS ADN DROPS
MA popped 1%: Guy Adami likes this stock.
BBI popped 7%. BMO Capital markets said the video rental chain, which is down 38% year to date, had sunk to "unwarranted" lows.
MCD popped 2%: Jeff Macke says MCD is working!
BA dropped 4%: Guy Adami says he still likes the stock.
MEDX dropped 21%: Pete Najarian says this drop illustrates the risk investors take on with biotech.
SBUX dropped 4%: Guy Adami thinks the stock drops to $18.
DISH dropped 3%. AT&T said it would wait until 2008 to make a decision between DirectTV and Echostar to become its sole future satellite television partner.
7. YOUR FIRST MOVE FOR WEDNESDAY
Jeff Macke recommends MCD and T on any dip.
Guy Adami likes CSCO.
Karen Finerman says long GS short LEH, dollar for dollar.
Pete Najarian thinks JNPR is a buy.
News and Events Digest
Breaking News
Steel producer ArcelorMittal (MT) Wednesday said its board of directors has approved a new share buyback program for up to a maximum of 44 million shares.
In a statement, ArcelorMittal said the new share buyback program is aimed at offsetting the issuance of 44 million ArcelorMittal shares that took place in connection with the ArcelorMittal merger Nov. 13.
ArcelorMittal said the new program would be realized in a two-year time frame. - MarketWatch
Nuance Communications, Inc. (NUAN) today announced that it plans to offer in an underwritten public offering 9,600,000 shares of its common stock. Warburg Pincus, a selling stockholder, is expected to sell an additional 4,800,000 shares in the offering, and certain members of Nuance management are expected to sell an additional 600,000 shares in the offering. Nuance will not receive any proceeds from sales of shares made by selling stockholders. Nuance and Warburg Pincus expect to grant the underwriters a 30-day option to purchase up to an additional aggregate of 2,250,000 shares of common stock, or 1,125,000 shares of common stock from each.
Geron Corporation (GERN) announced today that Merck & Co, Inc. has filed an Investigational New Drug application (“IND’) with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (“FDA’) for a cancer vaccine candidate that targets telomerase. Merck is developing the vaccine under a July, 2005 Research, Development and Commercialization License Agreement with Geron, which provided Merck with exclusive worldwide rights to develop and commercialize non-dendritic cell based vaccines targeting telomerase. Geron has received a $4 million milestone payment from Merck on account of the IND filing, and is eligible to receive additional development milestones as well as royalties on worldwide product sales.
Orthopedics products maker Zimmer Holdings Inc. said Tuesday the Food and Drug Administration granted approval to its NexGen LPS-Flex Mobile Knee. - AP
Media Summary
According to Reuters, the Fed is considering more actions to improve liquidty issues in the economy and announcements could come as early as today. On proposal would include a new liquidity facility that will auction loans to banks
Reuters writes that BHP Billiton (BHP) says it proposal to buy Rio Tinto (RTP) is still pending.
The Wall Street Journal writes that as Saudi Arabia builds up its infrastructure it uses more oil inside the country, leaving less to export.
The New York Times writes that another large study has shown the health dangers of GlaxoSmithKline drug Avandia.
The New York Time writes that Alan Greenspan says that the subprime mess was "an accident waiting to happen".
The New York Times writes that CNBC will begin to provide content to Yahoo! (YHOO) Finance.
The FT writest that the Fed will set up a system to auction loans to banks.
The FT also reports that Freddie Mac (FRE) says that it is facing much larger losses in the future.
Barron's reports that e-commerce revenue is up 18% this holiday season to $18.79 billion.
Bloomberg writes that China retail sales rose 19% in November.
M&A Activity:
Teradyne Inc. (TER) signed a definitive agreement to acquire Nextest Systems Corp. (NEXT), a San Jose flash memory test company, for about $325 million, or $20 a share, in cash. The price represents a premium of about 67% over Nextest's closing price Tuesday of $11.99. Teradyne, a North Reading, Mass., electronics test equipment company, expects the acquisition to reduce its 2008 earnings per share and slightly add to 2008 non-GAAP earnings per share after excluding the purchase accounting impacts. Teradyne expects the deal to close in the first quarter. The company said Nextest will run as a business unit within Teradyne's Semiconductor Test Division. - MarketWatch
Regency Energy Partners (RGNC) on Wednesday said it would pay $655 million to buy CDM Resource Management Ltd. in a move to become the "first major midstream company to buy a natural gas compression service firm." Regency Energy Partners said it expects the CDM to immediately add to cash available for distribution to its unit holders. Regency will fund the transaction through $446 million of bank debt, $205 million of deferred-pay limited partner units issued to the owners of CDM, and a $4-million capital contribution by the general partner of Regency in order for it to maintain its current ownership level. - MarketWatch
IPO Central:
Xinyuan Real Estate (XIN) priced 17.5 million shares at $14 a share, raising $245 million in its initial public offering on Wednesday. The company ranks as the first Chinese real estate developer to go public in the U.S. Xinyuan Real Estate priced in the middle of its $13-$15 range. - MarketWatch
Wednesday Stock Split Summary:
Recent Stock Split Announcements:
On December 6, Standard Parking Corporation (Nasdaq:STAN) announced that its board of directors approved a 2:1 stock split to be distributed on January 17, 2008.
On December 11, Cummins Inc. (NYSE:CMI) announced that its board of directors approved a 2:1 stock split to be payable on January 2, 2008.
Companies that have previously announced stock splits which become effective in the next several trading days.
Ex-Date Split Symbol Company
12/14 5:4 XTO XTO Energy, Inc.
12/17 2:1 DNR Denbury Resources, Inc.
12/18 2:1 BWA BorgWarner, Inc.
12/19 2:1 KMT Kennametal, Inc.
12/31 2:1 CAM Cameron International Corp.
Economic Data:
8:30 Export Prices
8:30 Import Prices
8:30 Trade Balance
10:30 Crude Inventories
2:00 Treasury Budget
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Aerospace
EDO EDO Corp Friedman Billings Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform $63 to $56
Airlines - Passenger
CAL Morgan Stanley Upgraded to Overweight
AMR Morgan Stanley Downgraded to Underweight
CAL Morgan Stanley Downgraded to Cautious
Beauty Products
ULTA Ulta Salon Wachovia Initiated at Outperform
ULTA Ulta Salon JP Morgan Initiated at Overweight
Biotech
ACAD ACADIA Pharmaceuticals JMP Securities Upgraded from Mkt Outperform to Strong Buy
CYTX Cytori Therapeutics Broadpoint Capital Initiated at Buy
CELG Celgene Cowen & Co Downgraded from Outperform to Neutral
CRL Charles River UBS Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
Business Services
MMS MAXIMUS KeyBanc Capital Mkts Upgraded from Buy to Aggressive Buy $50
PROJ Deltek Wachovia Initiated at Outperform
SDBT SoundBite Communications Needham & Co Initiated at Buy $10
SDBT SoundBite Communications Cowen & Co Initiated at Outperform
SDBT SoundBite Communications Cantor Fitzgerald Initiated at Buy $10
Combat Vehicles
FRPT Force Protection Stanford Research Initiated at Sell $5
Computer Hardware
TER Goldman Sachs Upgraded to Neutral
Computer Services
SVVS Cowen Likes the stock here
AKAM Akamai Tech Cowen & Co Downgraded from Outperform to Neutral
Computer Software
IPAS iPass Morgan Joseph Initiated at Buy $6
SAP SAP AG Credit Suisse Downgraded from Outperform to Underperform
Construction
CRDN JPMS Likes the Risk/Reward here.
Environmental Prod
FLDR Flanders JMP Securities Downgraded from Mkt Perform to Mkt Underperform
Finance Companies
WAL Western Alliance Bancorp Sandler O'Neill Downgraded from Hold to Sell $20
Foods
IPSU Imperial Sugar BWS Financial Coverage Resumed Sell $9
Gaming Operations
WYNN Bear Stearns Sees Valuation as Very Attractive
WYNN GABE Sees the Stock as Very Attractive
Healthcare
CRME OPCO Says to buy on strength
Healthcare Equipment
PHMD PhotoMedex Broadpoint Capital Initiated at Buy
COO Cooper Cos Jefferies & Co Cut Price Target Hold $46 to $41
Industrial Equipment
TNDM Neutral Tandem CIBC Wrld Mkts Initiated at Sector Outperform $25
Motor Vehicles
ARGN Amerigon KeyBanc Capital Mkts Initiated at Buy
Oil and Gas
ACGY Acergy Lehman Brothers Upgraded from Equal-weight to Overweight
REP Repsol SA Lehman Brothers Upgraded from Underweight to Equal-weight
ATPG FBRC Top Pick
LUKOY Lukoil Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight
Publishing
GCI Gannett Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $46
NYT New York Times Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $22
Recreation
BC Brunswick RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Perform $25 to $23
Regional Banks
BBX BankAtlantic Friedman Billings Upgraded from Underperform to Mkt Perform
FBP First Bancorp Kaufman Bros Initiated at Buy $11
BAC Merrill Lynch Downgraded to Hold
WB Merrill Lynch Downgraded to Sell
Savings & Loan
FBTX Franklin Bank Corp Keefe Bruyette Downgraded from Mkt Perform to Underperform $6.50 to $4.25
Semiconductors
CMOS Goldman Sachs Upgraded to Neutral
GNSS Genesis Microchip Jefferies & Co Upgraded from Underperform to Hold
ALTR Smith Barney Price Target Raised $26
Solar Energy
SPWR Raymond James Upgraded to Outperform
Specialty Funds
SAF SAFECO Friedman Billings Upgraded from Underperform to Mkt Perform $62
Svcs-Vehicle Leasing
HTZ Hertz Global Banc of America Sec Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
Telecommunications
CSCO Jeffries Price Target Raised $40
CBEY Raymond James Downgraded to Market Perform
CBB Cincinnati Bell Bear Stearns Downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform