Wednesday Morning, December 5th
SITE NEWS
New IceMD Recording:
Sweet, Natural Cough Suppressant - Honey;
Dow Stock News
UTX - added to the Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List
INTC - upgraded to Overweight at TWPT
Analysts at CIBC World Markets on Wednesday lowered their profit outlook for Citigroup Inc. (C), saying the Wall Street giant has the largest exposure to the highest-risk U.S. mortgage markets. "High [loan-to-value] mortgage loans is the greatest risk pool of U.S. consumer loans, and Citigroup has the single highest exposure to it," CIBC said in a research note. The analysts estimated that Citigroup will incur losses on such loans in the range of $4 billion to $6.5 billion in 2008, or between 31% and 51% of its third-quarter 2007 total loss reserve. As a result of higher estimated provision for losses, CIBC cut its 2008 profit estimate for Citigroup by almost 10% to $2.95 a share. - MarketWatch
The Wall Street Journal writes that GM (GM) is working on buying a large stake in a Russian auto maker.
The New York Times writes that Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) will begin to market its stents directly to consumers.
Reuters writes that Home Depot (HD) will close a number of call centers and lay off almost 1,000 people.
The FT reports that the head of Deutsche Bank (DB) has turned down the job of running Citigroup (C).
Ice Man Stocks
Breakouts the Ice Man may consider trading:
TEF - 103.50
BTU - 56.90
MBT - 97.25
CSIQ - 19.30
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
ERES - 12.35
RCH - 10.40
COST - 69.50
CMGI - 14
PCS - 17.51
KSS - 51.50
WHR - 82
SAP - 52.50
Dollar Man Ideas:
HOKU
MU
CTDC
NUVO
Media Commentators
Cramer's Comments:
The show was a sneak Preview of Jim´s new book.
Ice Cold Commentators
Break Man Video Summary:
Break out buy (or short sell) watch list for short term gains December 5 includes: DRXX, SNTS, MFA, DEIX, HMA, TIF, SHFL.
Several candidates for break out or short sell plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out (or selling the break down) on good volume and closing at least some on the first day.
Swing Man Market Recap:
On the heels of overnight selling in Europe, the market gapped down at the opening Tuesday testing the SPX 1462 support pivot in the first few minutes of trading. After a rally attempt to 1471 SPX at around 1:00, selling materialized in the financials (notably GS), and certain technology stocks (RIMM), pressuring the market into the close. At the close the SPX/DOW lost 0.60% and the NDZ/NAZ fell approximately 0.50%. After last week´s advance, the market has so far held up reasonably well considering the selling pressure on some of its leading stocks. In the financial sector, all of the notable stocks were lower today, but the technology sector turned in a mixed performance. Pivot support for the SPX remains at 1462 and then 1438, with initial resistance found near 1484. Short term momentum is still close to being oversold despite the bounce Tuesday morning. Wednesdy ISM reports their reading on the services sector at 10:00.
The market continued its pullback Tuesday as it attempts to consolidate last week´s gains. Over the past few days, I have suggested that you take things light while we wait for the market to show us a reason to become more aggressive. Recent days have seen the indexes and stocks thwart with whipsaw type action which serves to frustrate many traders. The near term outlook is very difficult here making patience extremely important is this environment.
Let´s quickly examine where we came from and what to watch for in the days ahead. Last Wednesday, the SPX broke out from the 60 minute bullish falling wedge pattern and stopped right at the 1490 resistance level during Friday´s session. Since then it has been pulling back in an orderly fashion with the oscillators on our 60 minute charts unwinding nicely. Remember there was not any negative divergence shown on the MACD at the 1490 high which increases the likelihood of another rally attempt. I can lay out three possible scenarios in the coming days. First, the SPX pulls back and forms a higher low (possibly a right shoulder) and then turns back up. Second, the SPX continues to correct lower but makes a divergent low on its daily chart which would also be a bullish setup. Third, the SPX breaks below our recent lows and accelerates to the downside without producing any divergences. Needless to say, the third scenario would be a bearish development. For either of the bullish scenarios, I´m looking for a signal from the market to become more aggressive on the buy side. Specifically, I would like to see a hammer candlestick form on the daily charts accompanied by strong volume before feeling comfortable a tradable low has been established. For now, let´s take things one day at a time while keeping things light.
Good Trading.
CNBC Fast Money Review
1. FEAR AND LOATHING ON WALL STREET
The headline: FNM Cuts Dividend by 30%; Shares Fall
Karen Finerman says she´s not surprised. Let bad news in the financials come out the market wants transparency.
Pete Najarian finds the news exciting. If FNM trades at $33 Wednesday morning he says it´s a buy.
Jeff Macke says that´s a brassy trade. But I like it.
2. MERCK'S POOR PROGNOSIS
The headline: MRK Shares End Volatile Day Lower After Disappointing Profit Forecast.
Pete Najarian explains Merck usually underestimates profits. I like their pipeline.
Jeff Macke adds this is an opportunity to accumulate shares.
3. UNFRIENDLY SKIES
The headline: UAUA, DAL, LUV, CAL Scale Back Expansion Plans, Citing Fuel Costs
Pete Najarian says until there´s consolidation in the industry, I wouldn´t participate in these stocks.
Jeff Macke said they have no control over their own destiny. Not a good reason to buy.
4. OPTIONS ACTION: SAFEWAY
The headline: Pete Seeing Unusually Options Activity In SWY
Pete Najarian explains gift cards are going to be a $100 million business for this company. The options trading suggests to him the stock could go higher.
Jeff Macke also likes this stock.
5. BETTER NEWS IN "STORE"
Retailers rallied Tuesday on high hopes for November same-store sales numbers, which come out later this week. Which stocks can you trust with your money?
Jeff Macke thinks the trade is to get out of the retailers by Thursday afternoon – ahead of the jobs report. But, retail names are so beaten down that any positive catalyst should boost them higher, he adds.
Macke´s favorite name in the space is GES.
Finerman agrees with Macke´s thesis. Here favorite names in retail are WMT and KSS.
6. POPS AND DROPS
VZ popped 2%: Najarian thinks the stock will go higher.
JMBA popped 9%: Finerman says she´s not excited.
SAFM popped 7%. The third- biggest U.S. poultry producer said Q4 profit more than doubled on higher chicken prices.
ATVI popped 7%. The videogame maker soared higher after it agreed Monday to sell a controlling stake to Vivendi and create the world's largest videogame maker.
RTP popped 2%. The Chinese steelmakers and the government are studying a joint bid for Rio Tinto to counter a $134 billion offer from BHP Billiton.
WAG dropped 2%: Adami expects negative news from this company.
DISH dropped 5% Adami recommends buying DISH as a trade with a stop-out below $38.
PVH dropped 13%: Macke explains it´s a tough time to be selling to department stores.
XMSR dropped 5%: Adami says I see nothing good in this stock.
7. YOUR FIRST MOVE FOR WEDNESDAY
Jeff Macke thinks GES is a buy on any dip.
Guy Adami likes JWN.
Karen Finerman recommends getting long GS and short LEH.
Pete Najarian thinks FNM might be worth buying Wednesday morning.
News and Events Digest
Breaking News
Premium soda maker Jones Soda Co. said Chairman and Chief Executive Peter Van Stolk, the company's founder, will step down from his positions by the end of the year.
Van Stolk, who announced plans for his departure earlier in the year, will remain as a board member, the company said late Tuesday. - AP
New York state prosecutors subpoenaed several Wall Street firms seeking information on the packaging and selling of debt tied to high-risk mortgages. - WSJ
Fannie Mae plans to raise $7 billion through the sale of preferred stock, seeking to bolster its capital. Fannie's dividend will be cut by 15 cents. - WSJ
Goodrich Petroleum Corp. (GDP) Wednesday said it increased its planned public offering to 5.8 million shares from 5.2 million and signed capped call option transactions that may reduce the potential dilution from the offering. The Houston energy company said about 4.2 million shares will be sold to the public at a price of $23.50 each, and roughly 1.6 million shares are being purchased by Bear Stearns & Co. and J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. to facilitate their hedging in connection with the capped call option transactions. The hedge shares, if purchased, will be offered by the purchasers from time to time at varying prices. Goodrich said the capped call option transactions allow the company to potentially recoup a portion of the shares sold over an average two-year period. - MarketWatch
Drug developer Pfizer Inc. and biotechnology company Adolor Corp. said Wednesday they are partnering to develop two pain treatments. - AP
SandRidge Energy Inc. (SD) on Wednesday said its shareholders plan to offer 57.6 million shares in an upcoming stock offering. Based on its closing price of $31.65 a share on Tuesday, the stock offering will raise $1.8 billion. The shares in the firm were acquired by the selling stockholders, or are issuable upon conversion of securities acquired by the selling stockholders, in connection with private placements in December 2005, November 2006 and March 2007. King Road Investments Ltd., Magnetar Capital Fund, Highbridge International, Ares Sandridge and Ares Corporate Opportunities Fund II L.P. are among the selling shareholders. - MarketWatch
Media Summary
According to Reuters, OPEC will probably keep oil output at current levels.
Reuters writes that a goverment plan to help sub-prime borrowers will probably freeze their rates for five years.
Reuters writes that a number of retailers are using sales early to avoid discounting later.
Reuters reports that UK mortgage lender Northern Rock may be nationalized if it cannot be sold.
Reuters writes that Google (GOOG) and GPS company Tom Tom have teamed up so that the device customers can use Google Maps
The Wall Street Journal reports that BlackRock's plan for rescuing Florida's troubled investment fund calls for isolating distressed securities and charging a fee for large withdrawals.
The Wall Street Journal writes that New York state prosecutors subpoenaed several Wall Street firms seeking information on the packaging and selling of debt tied to high-risk mortgages.
The Wall Street Journal also writes that Nielsen will offer a service to track the pirating of copyrighted video.
The Wall Street Journal writes that Fannie Mae (FNM) cut its dividend and will raise $8 billion.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Temasek Holdings., Singapore's state-owned investment company, is providing half the funding for a new, $2 billion China-focused private-equity fund set up by the chairman of Goldman Sachs (GS) in China.
The Wall Street Journal writes that Cisco (CSCO) hired the former CTO of Motorola (MOT).
The Wall Street Journal reports that Blackstone's (BX) stock is being pulled down by an investment in Financial Guaranty Insurance Corp which may need a capital infusion.
The New York Times writes that Nokia (NOK) will offer free downloads of music from Universal on its handsets.
The FT reports that China has extended a clampdown on new bank lending into next year.
The FT writes that Legg Mason say the credit markets are the worst they have been in 47 years.
Barron's writes that Comcast (CMCSA) cut its outlook and its shares fell after hours.
M&A Activity:
IPO Central:
NetSuite Inc. said Wednesday it plans to offer 6.2 million shares at $13-$16 a share in a bid to raise about $90 million in its upcoming initial public offering. The San Mateo, Calif. business software maker will be 55% owned by Oracle CEO Larry Ellison after it goes public. The trust for the benefit of David Ellison and the trust for the benefit of Margaret Ellison will each own 6% of the company. NetSuite bills itself as a leading vendor of on-demand, integrated business management application suites for small and medium-sized businesses. It'll trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol N. Ellison plans to transfer his shares into a lockbox limited liability company which will be formed for the limited purpose of holding the NetSuite shares and funding charitable gifts, the company said. NetSuite reported a loss of $21 million and revenue of $77 million for the nine months ended Sept. 30, compared to a loss of $28 million on revenue of $47 million in the year-ago period. - MarketWatch
Wednesday Stock Split Review:
recent stock split announcements:
On November 29 Medco Health Solutions, Inc. (NYSE:MHS) announced that its board of directors approved a 2:1 stock split to be distributed on January 24, 2008.
Companies that have previously announced stock splits which become effective in the next several trading days.
Ex-Date Split Symbol Company
12/6 2:1 RSTI Rofin-Sinar Technologies
12/11 11:10 CART Carolina Trust Bank
12/11 5:4 GRC Gorman-Rupp Company
12/11 2:1 FLIR FLIR Systems, Inc.
12/11 3:2 ROL Rollins, Inc.
Economic Data:
7:30 Auto & Truck Sales
8:30 Productivity
10:00 Factory Orders
10:00 ISM services
10:30 Crude Inventories
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Apparel
GES GES - reiterate Buy at Piper R
GES Guess Caris & Company Cut Price Target Average $54 to $47
PVH Phillips-Van Heusen Credit Suisse Cut Price Target Outperform $75 to $50
Broadcasting
XMSR XM Satellite Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
SIRI Sirius Satellite Wedbush Morgan Cut Price Target Buy $4 to $3.50
SIRI Sirius Satellite Stifel Nicolaus Cut Price Target Buy $4.75 to $4.25
XMSR XM Satellite Wedbush Morgan Cut Price Target Sell $12 to $9
Brokerage Services
TROW T. Rowe Price Jefferies & Co Initiated at Buy
Bbest broker says Smith Barney, MSC and MER have best risk reward, and they lowered numbers on GS, LEH;
Business Services
ENOC EnerNOC Jefferies & Co Initiated at Buy $54
Business Svcs-Data
RVBD RVBD - upgraded to Buy at THNK U
Cable TV
LBTYA Liberty Global Stifel Nicolaus Initiated at Buy $50
Chemicals
ARG Airgas KeyBanc Capital Mkts Upgraded from Buy to Aggressive Buy $66
Computer Hardware
DELL Dell Needham & Co Resumed Coverage Buy $28
Computer Services
SINA SINA - increasing guidance, Piper sayd this is not material to SINA I
Computer Software
TTWO Take-Two Kaufman Bros Upgraded from Hold to Buy $17 to $21
VRNT Verint Systems JP Morgan Upgraded from Underweight to Neutral
ERTS Electronic Arts Kaufman Bros Downgraded from Buy to Hold $69 to $62
Educational Services
APOL Apollo Group Banc of America Sec Initiated at Buy $90
COCO Corinthian Colleges Banc of America Sec Initiated at Buy $20.50
ESI ITT Educational Banc of America Sec Initiated at Buy $130
Finance Companies
AMG Affiliated Managers Jefferies & Co Initiated at Buy
CSR China Security and Surveillance Lehman Brothers Initiated at Overweight $30
FNM Fannie Mae Piper Jaffray Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
FNM Fannie Mae Credit Suisse Downgraded from Neutral to Underperform $50 to $25
FRE Freddie Mac Credit Suisse Downgraded from Neutral to Underperform $25 to $22
FNM Fannie Mae Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $35 to $30
GLAD Gladstone Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $22 to $18
PZN Pzena JP Morgan Initiated at Underweight
Gaming Operations
ISLE Isle of Capri Morgan Joseph Cut Price Target Buy $24 to $19
Healthcare
ABC AmerisourceBergen Banc of America Sec Upgraded from Neutral to Buy $53
ABC ABC - upgraded to Buy at Bank of America U
KNDL Kendle Susquehanna Financial Initiated at Positive
SKH Skilled Healthcare Friedman Billings Initiated at Outperform $18.50
UTHR United Thera Brean Murray Downgraded from Buy to Hold
Healthcare Equipment
MWIV MWI Veterinary Supply Susquehanna Financial Initiated at Positive
PMII Power Medical Interventions Jefferies & Co Initiated at Buy
Healthcare Facilities
WOOF VCA Antech CL King Initiated at Strong Buy $50
Motor Vehicles
PCAR PCAR - upgraded to Buy at Merrill U
Pharmaceutical
BVF Biovail BMO Capital Markets Upgraded from Underperform to Market Perform
Restaurants
DAVE Famous Dave's Piper Jaffray Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
RUTH Ruths Chris Steak House Piper Jaffray Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
Retail Trade
PSS Collective Brands Caris & Company Upgraded from Average to Above Average $18 to $22
AZO AutoZone Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Mkt Perform $115 to $125
Savings & Loan
FMD First Marblehead Sandler O'Neill Downgraded from Buy to Hold
Security Systems
JCI Johnson Controls Deutsche Securities Downgraded from Buy to Hold
Semiconductors
MRVL Marvell Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $19 to $18
Solar Energy
FSLR FSLR - Buy on fundamentals says DBAB S
Technology-Comm
HUGH Hughes Communications Wachovia Initiated at Outperform
Telecommunications
APSG Applied Signal CIBC Wrld Mkts Upgraded from Sector Underperform to Sector Perform
JDSU JDS Uniphase Roth Capital Upgraded from Hold to Buy $15.90 to $17.30
RIMM RIMM - upgraded to Buy at TD Newcrest U
IDCC IDCC - recent win removes overhang says FACT R
CMCSA Comcast Kaufman Bros Downgraded from Buy to Hold $27 to $24
SKM SK Telecom Bear Stearns Downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform
CMCSA CMCSA - downgraded to Neutral at Goldman Sachs D
CTV Commscope Robert W. Baird Cut Price Target Outperform $60 to $54
Transportation
TGP Teekay LNG Partners Citigroup Upgraded from Hold to Buy
Utilities
FPL FPL Group UBS Downgraded from Buy to Neutral