Wednesday Morning, November 28th
SITE NEWS
New IceMD Recording:
Low B12 Tied to Mental Decline;
Dow Stock News
According to Reuters, GM (GM) will begin to build hybrid cars in China next year.
The Wall Street Journal writes that GM will sell asset-backed securites in China, a first for a US company.
The Wall Street Journal writes that Verizon Wireless is opening its cellular network to devices and software which it does not sell.
DD DuPont Soleil Upgraded from Hold to Buy $50
Ice Man Stocks
Breakouts the Ice Man may consider trading:
IIJI - 10.50
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
MGI - 15.10
VAR - 50.25
ADI - 31.30
ALOG - 53.25
Dollar Man Ideas:
OWW - 8.52 Bid
CUR - 2.80
DEIX - 1.90
FINL - 3.30
SCA - 5.35
Media Commentators
Cramer's Comments:
Cramer:
Bullish: HAL, AYI
Bearish: SBUX
Cabot:
Likes CMG and otherwise would be in cash.
Ice Cold Commentators
Break Man Video Summary:
Break out buy (or short sell) watch list for short term gains November 28 includes: GSF, DHR, FCL, CHT, PBG, UNTD, DV, PPDI.
Several candidates for break out or short sell plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out (or selling the break down) on good volume and closing at least some on the first day.
Swing Man Market Recap:
The market opened higher Tuesday morning on overnight buying as the SPX reached 1420. However, the opening move up was quickly met with sellers and the SPX pulled back to about unchanged around the 1407 level by 10:00. This was followed by a choppy rally up until around 1:30 as the SPX made new highs for the day at 1428. Then another of those afternoon selling sprees took place as the SPX retreated back to the 1410 pivot support area by 2:30. Unlike recent days, the bulls took charge during the final hour plus and the market rallied into the close making as the SPX made a new daily high at 1429. At the close the SPX/DOW were 1.60% higher while the NDX/NAZ gained 1.90%. Bonds gave back most of yesterday´s gains losing 1 ¼ points on the session. Crude Oil lost $3.20 and Gold dropped $15.20 during the trading day. Short term momentum was oversold this morning but is now rising as it closed just past the neutral level. Wednesday morning the government will announce October durable goods and existing home sales data and the FED´s beige book will be released at 2:00. Expect the recent volatility to continue.
Over the past few days, I have included 60 minute charts relating to some of the major indexes. The reason for including these charts is that they have formed falling wedge patterns accompanied by positive divergence. Normally, these charts are bullish setups that have a tendency to break to the upside over time. This is not always the case especially with the market in severe downtrends, but as long as the patterns remain valid they should be respected. As we pointed out Monday evening, the SPX 60 minute chart (shown below) touched its downtrend line (resistance) on Monday and reversed lower. Well today, the SPX bounced off its lower trendline and closed higher on the day. Looking ahead, we need to see how these bullish wedge patterns play out. If they break thru and hold above their respective downtrend lines, the market is likely to move higher for a period of time. A potential target on such an advance would be the 20 day moving averages where each index would likely find stiff resistance upon an initial test. In the event the patterns are breached significantly to the downside, they would be invalidated. Such an occurrence would likely lead to more selling in the near term.
The key levels to watch regarding the SPX are 1440 topside and the 1405 area on the bottom. Please respect a break and hold in either direction.
As a result of those positive divergences on the 60 minute charts, the market finally caught a bid and just in time as many indexes were trading near/at important support levels. Today´s rally was confirmed by solid internals which serves to increase the likelihood of further appreciation over the near term. However, we must realize that the various indexes have yet to break and close above their downtrend lines. We need to see this happen before we can expect the market to move higher in the coming days. Remember, the daily charts are still pointing down and thus any advance should be viewed as a countertrend move at this time. Therefore, I suggest that you refrain from becoming overly aggressive and focus on a few plays with proper setups. This is a market where we need to take things one day at a time and adjust accordingly. Tomorrow is a new day so let´s watch and see if the bulls can muster up additional buying.
Good Trading.
CNBC Fast Money Review
1. MIDDLE EAST BAILS OUT CITI
The headline: Citigroup, Country´s Largest Bank, Gets $7.5B Capital Infusion from Abu Dhabi; 4.9% Stake Makes Abu Dhabi One of Citi´s Top Shareholders
Karen Finerman said the fact that the stake was for 4.9% is important. It means neither side has to make a 13-D disclosure, keeping the process simpler. Karen´s bank of choice is BCS, because it proved it was “comfortable’ in talking about its guidance. Perhaps one of the only financials to do so.
Pete Najarian said the Citi news shows that at least a little of the nervousness is gone. It gives the bank some much-needed liquidity and calm. Don´t be surprised to see Abu Dhabi buy even more if the stock goes lower.
Guy Adami called the move a “good first step’ in restoring some order to the plagued banking sector. The last shoe still probably hasn´t dropped, he said, but this is a start in getting some normalcy back.
2. FREDDIE MAC CUTS DIVIDEND
The headline: FRE Cuts Quarterly Dividend in Half to $.025 from $0.50
Karen Finerman says usually, this news would be negative. But since Freddie´s market value has been halved and its yield had gone way up, the lowered dividend could actually be construed as positive news. It´s another “piece of the mosaic’ that, along with Citigroup, might be starting to reveal a bottom. It´s far from an absolute bottom, Karen said, but it looks like things are starting to head that way.
Jeff Macke, sticking to his guns, advised investors to simply “walk away’ from the financials. Don´t bet the XLF has bottomed unless you´re doing it with someone else´s money.
3. RETAIL RELIEF RALLY
The headline: Retail Shares Rebound From Black Friday Blues After Dismal Showing Monday
Jeff Macke: COST is best-of-breed.
Guy Adami: Buy CTRN as a short-term trading vehicle only.
Karen Finerman: Stick with WMT through the holidays.
4. OIL FALLS FURTHER FROM $100
The headline: Crude Oil Slides 3.4% on Growing Expectations OPEC Will Raise Production
Guy Adami says a stabilizing U.S. dollar is the key to commodity prices. The dollar premium in oil is so high that crude could go to $85 in a hurry if the dollar steadied itself somewhat.
5. GOLDEMANS DEFENSIVE MOVE
Goldman Sachs (GS) is making a major shift in its analyst coverage, upgrading or downgrading 17 sectors on the fear of a softening economy. Could Goldman´s move be a bellwether of things to come? Or is it just late to the party?
Goldman´s upgrades consists of only large-cap biotech, defense and tobacco stocks. Meanwhile, its new list of downgrades is made up by airlines, autos, REITs, software, oil services, metals and more.
Goldman´s ‘buy´ list: MO, T, CVS, GILD, and GOOG.
Goldman´s ‘sell´ list: MMM, AN, DFS, DDS, LCC.
Jeff Macke didn´t get too excited about this shift to defense. Most of it seems obvious and he´s not sure how it adds value to the economic conversation.
Pete Najarian found it interesting that Goldman was split on the airlines, upgrading UAL, advocating DAL and downgrading LCC and ALK.
6. POPS AND DROPS
AMZN popped 5%: Macke said they´re a darn good retailer.
AIG popped 4%: Adami thought the market was anticipating money coming into this company.
BCS popped 9%. The British bank said it might match its 2006 profits.
GCO dropped 15%: Finerman said if you want to play this stock, go options only.
BARE dropped 9%: Najarian said "They have some problems."
HSII dropped 5%. Goldman Sachs downgraded the staffing sector.
7. VIAGRA MAKER
The headline: PFE Shares Jump 2%, Rebounding From 52-Week Low
Pete Najarian said Big Pharma had been performing without Pfizer. Now PFE has jumped on board. But don´t look for big things out of the stock until the company makes some acquisitions to shore up that bone-dry pipeline.
News and Events Digest
Breaking News
Panera Bread Co.'s (PNRA) board approved the repurchase of up to $75 million of the company's common shares. The St. Louis bakery cafe chain said repurchases under the accelerated share repurchase agreement are expected to conclude during the first quarter of 2008. Panera said it will use proceeds from a $75 million credit facility to finance the accelerated repurchase program. Shares of Panera Bread, which has about 32.3 million shares outstanding, closed Tuesday at $35.51, up 22 cents. - MarketWatch
James River Coal Co. (JRCC) Tuesday filed to sell 4.5 million shares of its stock. Based on its closing price of $6.82 a share on Tuesday, the offering will raise $31 million with underwriter UBS.
Wall Street journal had a negative article on ethanol stocks including VSE and PEIX.
Wells Fargo (WFC) has jumped on the mortgage writedown wagon disclosing Tuesday that it will take a $1.4 billion charge to liquidate a big pool of home equity loans it bought from other financial institutions. The San Francisco bank promised to further tighten credit standards and to close so-called indirect channels, such as loans purchased from mortgage brokers, in a bid to further reduce risks tied to its lending business. Wells said the $11.9 billion liquidation portfolio represents just 3% of its loans outstanding, though it represents the highest-risk loans in its home equity business. - CNNMoney
Moody's Investors Service said Wednesday it placed the long-term debt ratings of Chevron Corp. under review for a possible upgrade, citing continued improvements in the oil company's financial profile. - AP
SunPower Corp. (SPWR) said Morgan Stanley (MS) agreed to provide the company with up to $190 million in financing for future commercial and public agency solar electric power installations. The California solar cells maker said the financing will be available for qualifying installations it delivers to customers under its SunPower Access program through 2008. The company said it will jointly own a holding company with Morgan Stanley to finance project companies established for individual installations. SunPower said the project companies will purchase solar systems and resell the electricity to customers. In addition, SunPower will finance up to $10 million through the facility. - MarketWatch
U.S. stock futures climbed on Wednesday as Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said the central bank can be "nimble" and that it can't hold the economy hostage to teach speculators lessons, a speech that contrasts with more hawkish comments made in recent days. - MarketWatch
Online shopping was up 21% on cyber Monday compared to last year.
Media Summary
Reuters writes that BHP Billiton (BHP) is insisting that a merger with Rio Tinto (RTP) will not raise pricing questions that would drive away large customers.
Reuters reports that Toyota (TM) is recalling 215,000 Lexus and other models in Japan.
Reuters writes that OPEC is alarmed by rising oil but has said little about its policy on the matter.
Reuters reports that Ford (F) is trying to take lessons from its successful operation in Brazil to use in the US.
Reuters reports that Wells Farge (WFC) will take a $1.4 billion charge for bad loans.
Reuters also writes that the CEO of Activision sees the price of game consoles like the Sony (SNE) PS3 and Microsoft (MSFT) Xbox 360 dropping to under $200 over time.
The Wall Street Journal writes that e-commerce sales hit a daily record of $733 million on Monday.
The Wall Street Journal writes that Google (GOOG) will spend hundreds of millions of dollars to develop alternative energies.
The New York Times writes that cable companies were able to dodge further regulation by the FCC.
The FT writes that Freddie Mac (FRE) has cut its dividend in half and will raise $6 billion.
Barron's writes that Marvel (MRVL) beat estimates for the current quarter and raised guidance.
CNN Money writes that Nintendo Wii sales are brisk but supplies are short.
Wednesday Stock Split Review:
Companies that have previously announced stock splits which become effective in the next several trading days.
Ex-Date Split Symbol Company
12/4 2:1 DE Deere & Company
12/4 2:1 LKQX LKQ Corporation
12/6 2:1 RSTI Rofin-Sinar Technologies
12/11 11:10 CART Carolina Trust Bank
12/11 5:4 GRC Gorman-Rupp Company
12/11 2:1 FLIR FLIR Systems, Inc.
12/11 3:2 ROL Rollins, Inc.
Economic Data:
8:30 Durable Orders
10:00 Existing Home Sales
10:30 Crude Inventories
2:00 Fed´s Beige Book
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Airlines - Passenger
AKH Air France KLM Deutsche Securities Downgraded from Buy to Hold
RYAAY Ryanair Hldgs Deutsche Securities Downgraded from Buy to Hold
Apparel
GES Piper Jaffrey Says to use weakness as a Buying opportunity
Beverages
BUD Anheuser-Busch UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
TAP Molson Coors Brewing UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
Biotech
SVNT Savient Pharma Citigroup Initiated at Buy $21
ARIA Ariad Pharm JP Morgan Downgraded from Overweight to Neutral
Broadcasting
AMT American Tower Cowen & Co Initiated at Outperform
CCI Crown Castle Cowen & Co Initiated at Outperform
Business Services
ICTG ICT Group Friedman Billings Upgraded from Underperform to Mkt Perform $11
Computer Hardware
BCSI Blue Coat Roth Capital Upgraded from Hold to Buy $42
SNIC Sonic Solutions Kaufman Bros Downgraded from Buy to Hold $14 to $8.50
Construction
CRDN Ceradyne Morgan Joseph Upgraded from Hold to Buy $73
ATRO Astronics Corporation Boenning & Scattergood Downgraded from Market Outperform to Market Perform
Education - China
NED DBAB Initiated with a Buy
NED Noah Education CIBC Wrld Mkts Initiated at Sector Outperform $14
Finance Companies
UBS UBS AG Credit Suisse Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform
DFT Dupont Fabros Tech KeyBanc Capital Mkts Initiated at Buy $21
ADVNB Advanta Corp Friedman Billings Downgraded from Mkt Perform to Underperform $17.50 to $7.50
Healthcare
ICLR ICON plc Wachovia Initiated at Outperform
KNDL Kendle Wachovia Initiated at Outperform
MYGN Myriad Genetics GARP Research Initiated at Buy
ASEI STFG Upgraded to Buy $66
CPHD Cepheid Piper Jaffray Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
CVD Covance Wachovia Initiated at Outperform
Industrial Equipment
DCI William Blair Likes
Insurance
AGP Amerigroup Bear Stearns Initiated at Peer Perform
CNC Centene Bear Stearns Initiated at Outperform
Major Pharmaceutical
ACL Jeffries Says to use weakness as a Buying opportunity
Manufacturing
GLYT Genlyte Banc of America Sec Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
Mining - Minerals
ANR Alpha Natural Resources UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
POT Potash JP Morgan Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight
Oil and Gas
HOC Holly Friedman Billings Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform $65
CHK Chesapeake Energy Stifel Nicolaus Initiated at Buy $51
PETD Petroleum Development Stifel Nicolaus Initiated at Buy $69
CNQ Canadian Natrl Res RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Perform $77 to $74
CNQ Canadian Natrl Res Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $91 to $85
Paper and Packaging
ATR AptarGroup Lehman Brothers Upgraded from Underweight to Equal-weight
Pharmaceutical
CPRX Catalyst Pharma Rodman & Renshaw Initiated at Mkt Outperform $9
Publishing
NYT New York Times Banc of America Sec Downgraded from Neutral to Sell
Regional Banks
SAN Banco Santander Deutsche Securities Upgraded from Hold to Buy $49 to $60
PVTB PrivateBancorp RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Perform $28 to $30
WFC Wells Fargo Deutsche Securities Cut Price Target Hold $36 to $32
WFC Wells Fargo RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Outperform $40 to $35
Retail Trade
SPLS Goldman Sachs Upgraded to Buy
OSTK Overstock.com Stifel Nicolaus Upgraded from Sell to Hold
CMRG Casual Male Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
AEO American Eagle Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $26 to $24
CMRG Casual Male RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Outperform $12 to $11
Semiconductors
NVLS Novellus Stifel Nicolaus Upgraded from Sell to Hold
VRGY Verigy Stifel Nicolaus Upgraded from Hold to Buy $32
MRVL Marvell Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Mkt Perform $18 to $19
SWKS Oppenheimer Likes
ADI Analog Devices AmTech Research Cut Price Target Buy $43 to $39
MRVL Marvell Kaufman Bros Cut Price Target Hold $18 to $16
Telecommunications
SI Siemens AG Bear Stearns Resumed Coverage Outperform
RCNI RCN Bear Stearns Initiated at Outperform
VRNM Verenium Broadpoint Capital Initiated at Buy $5
IDCC Interdigital Comm Boenning & Scattergood Cut Price Target Market Outperform $37 to $30
PWAV Powerwave Credit Suisse Cut Price Target Neutral $8 to $6
Transportation
KSP K-Sea Transportation Citigroup Initiated at Buy $44
Utilities
ATG AGL Resources UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
DYN Dynegy Jefferies & Co Initiated at Buy $9