Wednesday Morning, October 31st
SITE NEWS
New IceMD Recording:
Andropause = Male Menopause;
Very, very good information.
Dow Stock News
T - upgraded to Sector Outperform at Oppenheimer
The Wall Street Journal writes that experts are questioning if Citigroup (C) should account for structured investment vehicles on their own balance sheets.
PG Procter & Gamble HSBC Securities Price Target Raised Overweight $73 to $80
Ice Man Stocks
Breakouts the Ice Man may consider trading:
BAX - 61
TUP - 36.75
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
BLK - 200
SPAR - 15.05
USG - 39.75
GYI - 29.70
Depressed stocks the Ice Man may buy:
DRYS - 103.50 - 105, Then 93.50
EXM - 56.60 (50 Day MA)
DSX - 36.55 Gap
TWIN - 61.30 Gap
FDG - 34 Gap
WFT - 61.45 Gap
X - 98 Gap
GNK - 64 Gap
CAM - 94.90
TBSI - 55 Gap
Dollar Man Ideas:
CPTC - 2.22
BBND - 6.80
EEE - 4.90
WAVE - 6
Media Commentators
Cramer's Comments:
Bullish: BBD, ITU, GLW, MRO, SUN, VLO
Ice Cold Commentators
Break Man Video Summary:
Break out buy (or short sell) watch list for short term gains October 31 includes: CG, SSRX, PACT, ASIA, HSOA, DIVX, TLCV, PEP, XEL.
Several candidates for break out or short sell plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out (or selling the break down) on good volume and closing at least some on the first day.
Swing Man Market Recap:
Last night´s selling in Europe combined with a mixed Asian session put downward pressure on the stock index futures. As a result, stocks opened to the downside as the SPX hit 1531 by noon. A subsequent rally took out the highs for the day by 2:00 at 1538. However, sellers once again took control and led the market back down into the close with the SPX touching the 1530 support area right before the close. For the day, the SPX/DOW was off 0.60% while the NDX/Nasdaq ended mixed. The NDX made a new bull market high during the day, for the second time this week. Commodities came under heavy selling pressure today as Crude dropped $3.75 and Gold lost $6.00. Short term momentum was overbought coming into the day, but is now closer to being oversold. Tomorrow, all eyes turn to the Fed and their policy decision.
Tonight´s update will be very brief as we wait on the Fed announcement and subsequent market reaction. However, I would like to briefly discuss how some of the interest sensitive stocks acted today. Today´s action in the Oil, Gold, Steel, Shippers, and even some financials had some market participants talking about the possibility of a scenario where the Fed elects to not cut rates tomorrow. Previous to the last Fed meeting (where they lowered rates 50 basis points), the above mentioned groups all saw strong gains on the day before the decision. Could today´s poor action in these groups be indicative of no cut? Honestly, I think it´s impossible to predict but I just wanted to bring it to your attention.
More importantly, I want to highlight some recent themes that have been taking place under the radar. Lately, the leadership in the marketplace has shifted to fewer and fewer stocks. Strong action in stocks like BIDU, MSFT, AAPL, RIMM, ISRG, and GOOG has helped the NDX reach new highs. However, underneath the surface many stocks have actually come under some selling pressure. For example, today the Nasdaq closed essentially flat but after deeper examination you see that there were 18 stocks DOWN for every 11 stocks UP within the index. This is certainly not indicative of a healthy market and cannot be sustained over time. In addition, the DAILY charts of the Nasdaq and NDX are still portraying very clear negative divergence. Maybe tomorrow´s Fed action will serve to negate some of these concerns and thus extend the rally, but for now these troubling facts should not be ignored.
Should the market elect to pullback, please make note of the following support areas. For the leading NDX and Nasdaq, look for initial support near their respective 20 day moving averages with their 50 day moving averages being potential targets if a deeper correction were to materialize. The other major indexes are currently trading below their respective 20 day moving averages, but still have support of their respective 50 day moving averages. The 50 day moving averages should be viewed as critical support levels, for if they are lost, a deeper pullback could be in the cards. Just something to be aware of if the market doesn´t get the response from the Fed it desires. The only thing that you can control is your level of risk so please act accordingly.
Good Trading.
CNBC Fast Money Review
1. BUY BACKS
The headline: DELL and UPS both announced buy-backs after hours.
Karen Finerman likes that both companies see value in their own stocks.
Guy Adami recommends buying UPS and Dell. He says “You´ve got to own both.’
2. PROCTER & GAMBLE DRAGS DOWN MARKET
The headline: PG Full-Year Outlook Disappoints Investors, Weights on Market
Jeff Macke recommends adding on the dip. He´s not concerned.
3. MERRILL FALLS
The headline: MER Shares Drop After O'Neal Steps Down, Board Member Steps In As Interim CEO.
Karen Finerman doesn´t think an interim CEO´s ever works well and ads Co-CEO´s never work well.
Guy Adami again recommends RJF as a name in the financial world that he likes.
4. AFTER HOURS: WYNN
The headline: WYNN Resorts Drops After Hours on Disappointing earnings
Pete Najarian likes WYNN for its Macao´s exposure. He thinks the current dip is a buying opportunity.
Guy Adami prefers LVS and BYD.
5. DEAL ON THE “VERIZON"
The headline: VZ and GOOG Discuss Mobile Phone Partnership
Dylan Ratigan explains the Verizon hardware would run the Google software.
Jeff Macke likes Verizon as a trade off the news.
Pete Najarian prefers Google.
6. OIL BACK DOWN?
Crude shed 3%, Tuesday, on concerns about slowing economic growth. Is it time to take profits in oil?
Karen Finerman explains that if you believe the US economy is going to slow down, then you must also believe there will be a marginal decrease in demand for oil. Subsequently, lower demand will drive the cost of crude lower, she says. The trade, she adds, is shorting the USO.
Guy Adami prefers shorting XOM ahead of earnings. He calls it a gutsy trade that he thinks will pay big.
Dylan Ratigan tells the panel that investors who want to short oil could also buy DUG.
Pete Najarian isn´t looking for an immediate move lower in oil. He recommends buying puts farther out.
7. POPS AND DROPS
GT popped 8%: Macke doesn´t recommend getting long.
CL popped 1%: Najarian says the weaker dollar is great for Colgate.
AVP popped 4%: Finerman likes the turnaround story.
SOHU popped 8%: Najarian likes the entire space.
YUM popped 3%: Finerman likes this company for growth in China.
AG popped 9%: Adami says it´s a buy on a pullback.
SEPR popped 16%: Najarian thinks Big Pharma might be looking at this company as a takeover target.
X dropped 7%: Adami recommends buying this stock if it pulls back to $95.
ENR dropped 8%: Macke says the rabbit died!
WCG dropped 33%: Finerman says stay away.
SIRI dropped 9%: Macke says it´s a buy on the merger with XM.
8. YOUR FIRST MOVE FOR WEDNESDAY
Macke recommends buying YHOO on the recent pullback.
Adami likes DELL because the company is resuming its stock buyback.
Finerman likes CSG as a Halloween candy trade
Pete Najarian prefers DKS for strength in Under Armour and Nike.
News and Events Digest
Breaking News
Google in talks with Verizon Wireless and Sprint about offering handsets tailored to its new operating system. Google shares rose $15.54 to $694.77. - WSJ
U.S. networking company Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) expects its tie-up with Indian software major Wipro Ltd. to generate about $1 billion in revenue over the next three years, a senior Cisco official said Wednesday.
"The alliance is going to scale up to $1 billion in the next three years," Wim Elfrink, chief globalization officer for Cisco, told reporters. - MarketWatch
Clorox Co. (CLX) said Wednesday it will acquire personal-care product company Burt's Bees for $925 million net of an additional $25 million payment for anticipated tax benefits, in a move to capitalize on the popularity in "natural" products. Clorox will fund the all-cash deal through a combination of cash and short-term borrowings. The transaction, which is expected to close by the end of this calendar year, is subject to regulatory approval. Based on its current growth trajectory and estimated 2007 net customer sales of about $170 million, Burt's Bees is expected to add nearly 2 points of top-line growth to Clorox in fiscal years 2008 and 2009, the company said. Clorox expects the deal will dilute its fiscal year 2008 earnings by about 10 cents to 15 cents a share and that it will add slightly to earnings in fiscal year 2009. Excluding such purchase-accounting adjustments, one-time transaction and integration costs as well as non-cash expenses related to the deal, the earnings per share impact is anticipated to be neutral in fiscal year 2008 and "solidly accretive" in fiscal year 2009. - MarketWatch
UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) increased its stock repurchase program, under which up to 210 million common shares may now be repurchased. The extension includes 50 million shares remaining under the previous share repurchase authorization. In addition, the company may increase the debt component of its capital structure to the 40% range. As of Sept. 30, the company's debt to total capitalization ratio was roughly 28%. Separately, the Minneapolis-based managed-care company said it named Michele J. Hooper to the board. - MarketWatch
Nvidia Corp. said Tuesday the Securities and Exchange Commission ended an investigation into the company's historical stock option grant practices and recommended no enforcement action.
The chipmaker is one of more than 200 companies that has disclosed federal, regulatory or internal investigations into past stock options. - AP
A long-acting diabetes drug from Amylin Pharmaceuticals (AMLN) and Eli Lilly (LLY) allows diabetes patients to control their blood sugar levels better than currently approved drugs, according to results from a phase III study released today. - TSCM
In the headline of an Oct. 29 story about the FDA's approval of a new leukemia drug, The Associated Press misspelled the name of the company and the disease. The drug company is Novartis, not Norvatis. The disease is leukemia, not leukemis. - AP
Business software company MicroStrategy Inc. said Wednesday its third-quarter earnings rose about 14 percent as its product licenses and product support and services revenues increased.
For the quarter that ended Sept. 30, MicroStrategy earned $19.3 million, or $1.51 per share, compared with $17 million, or $1.27 per share, in the year-ago quarter.
The company's revenue rose year over year to $95.8 million from $77.7 million.
The results beat the estimates of analysts polled by Thomson Financial, who on average expected earnings of $1.11 per share on $85.5 million in revenue. - AP
Parametric Technology Corp. (PMTC) Wednesday said it will restate previous financial results related to certain transactions involving Japan's Toshiba Corp. during fiscal 2001 to 2006. PTC said the transactions appear to have been related to an allegedly fraudulent scheme conducted by an employee of Toshiba. The company said the revenue related to the transactions expected to be restated is about $41 million, while the anticipated reduction in fiscal 2006 revenue is roughly $8 million. PTC said it believes its results for the fiscal fourth quarter and 2007 will not be materially affected by the restatement, which was included in the company's fiscal fourth-quarter earnings release. The company said its quarterly net income was $36.1 million, or 31 cents a share, compared with $28.1 million, or 24 cents a share in the year-ago period. Separately, PTC said it plans to acquire CoCreate Software for $250 million. - MarketWatch
Media Summary:
According to Reuters, a number of experts do not believe that a rate cut by the Fed will help the falling housing market.
Reuters writes that Alcatel-Lucent (ALU) will cut another 4,000 jobs.
Reuters reports that the UAW takes with Ford (F) have hit an intense phase.
Reuters also reports that Dell (DELL) has filed amended financials and will begin its share buy-back.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Google (GOOG) is in talks with Verizon (VZ) and Sprint (S) about offering a news phone loaded with the search company's mobile software.
The Wall Street Journal writes that Stan O'Neal left Merrill Lynch (MER) with a $162 million exit package.
The Wall Street Journal reports that oil experts are discussing the possible effects of oil going well above $100 a barrel.
The Wall Street Journal writes the Cerberus has dropped its bid for Affiliated Computer Services (ACS).
The New York Times writes that pharmaceutical ingredients exported from China are often made by firms that are not certified.
The FT writes that Congress has extended the internet tax ban.
Barron's writes that shares in Shutterfly (SFLY) dropped on a weak forecast for the next quarter.
CNN Money reports that Google (GOOG) and several social networks will offer a platform for applications that will run on any social networking site. The move is seen as a challenge to Facebook.
M&A Activity:
CSC to acquire
FCGI - First Consuting Group - for $13/share;
First Consulting Group Inc., (FCGI) the Long Beach, Calif., provider of information-technology products and services for health care and life sciences, agreed to be acquired for $13 a share, or $365 million, cash by Computer Sciences Corp., (CSC) the companies said. Computer Sciences is the El Segundo, Calif., IT-services company. FCGI shares closed on Tuesday at $9.98, indicating that CSC is paying a 30% premium for the company. Both companies' boards have approved the deal. Subject to conditions including antitrust clearance, the two sides expect to close the deal in the calendar first quarter, which is Computer Sciences' fiscal fourth quarter. Computer Sciences said the deal expands its offerings in health-care IT and broadens its presence geographically. First Consulting has about 600 employees in Bangalore, India, developing applications and providing outsourced business-process services. It's also employing 580 people in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam. William Blair advised First Consulting on the deal. - MarketWatch
SPX Corp. (SPW) said Wednesday it'll pay about $510 million to buy APV, a manufacturer of process equipment and engineered solutions in the sanitary market. APV is a division of Invensys PLC, an international industrial automation, transportation and controls group headquartered in London. APV will become a part of SPX's flow technology segment. - MarketWatch
Wednesday Split Review:
recent stock split announcements:
On October 24, Kennametal Inc. (NYSE:KMT) announced that its board of directors approved a 2:1 stock split to be distributed on December 18, 2007.
On October 25, Corus Entertainment Inc. (NYSE:CJR) announced that its board of directors approved a 2:1 stock split to be effective February 1, 2008.
On October 25, FLIR Systems Inc. (Nasdaq:FLIR) announced that its board of directors approved a 2:1 stock split to be distributed on or about December 10, 2007.
On October 26, Gorman-Rupp Company (Amex:GRC) announced that its board of directors approved a 5:4 stock split to be distributed on December 10, 2007.
On October 26, IDEXX Laboratories, Inc. (Nasdaq:IDXX) announced that its board of directors approved a 2:1 stock split to be distributed on or about November 26, 2007.
On October 26, Graham Corporation (Amex:GHM) announced that its board of directors approved a 5:4 stock split to be distributed on or about January 2, 2008.
On October 29, Dominion Resources Inc. (NYSE:D) announced that its board of directors approved a 2:1 stock split to be distributed on or after November 19, 2007.
Companies that have previously announced stock splits which become effective in the next several trading days.
Ex-Date Split Symbol Company
11/9 2:1 ATU Actuant Corporation
11/15 4:3 MPR Met-Pro Corporation
11/16 2:1 CRS Carpenter Technology Corp.
11/19 4:1 APAGF Apco Argentina, Inc.
11/20 2:1 D Dominion Resources, Inc.
Economic Data:
8:30 GDP
8:30 Chain Deflator
8:30 Employment Cost
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Construction Spending
10:30 Crude Inventories
2:15 FOMC policy statement
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Aerospace
BEAV BE Aerospace Calyon Securities Price Target Raised Buy $51 to $56
Airlines
CPA CPA - downgraded at Morgan Stanley D
TAM TAM S.A. Citigroup Upgraded from Hold to Buy
Apparel
UA UA - downgraded to Underperform at Raymond James D
Biotech
NVAX Novavax Oppenheimer Upgraded from Neutral to Buy $6
GPCB GPC Biotech Deutsche Securities Downgraded from Hold to Sell
LXRX Lexicon Pharma RBC Capital Mkts Downgraded from Outperform to Sector Perform $6 to $5
Broadcasting
LNET LodgeNet Bear Stearns Downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform
Brokerage Services
GFIG GFI Group Bear Stearns Initiated at Outperform $102.60
Business Services
XPRT LECG Corp William Blair Upgraded from Underperform to Mkt Perform
IMNY I-many Matrix Research Price Target Raised Buy $3.25 to $3.75
SUMT SumTotal JMP Securities Downgraded from Strong Buy to Mkt Outperform $9 to $6.50
Chemicals
MON MON - price target raised to $109 at Jefferies P
Computer Hardware
DELL Dell Caris & Company Price Target Raised Above Average $30 to $35
BCSI Blue Coat Roth Capital Downgraded from Buy to Hold $40 to $42
MXWL Maxwell Tech Needham & Co Downgraded from Buy to Hold
MXWL Maxwell Tech JMP Securities Downgraded from Mkt Perform to Mkt Underperform $10
MXWL Maxwell Tech Roth Capital Cut Price Target Hold $15 to $14
NEWP Newport Brean Murray Cut Price Target Buy $22 to $20
SANM Sanmina-SCI RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Underperform $3 to $2
VSH Vishay Longbow Cut Price Target Buy $19.50 to $17.50
Computer Services
NCIT NCI Stifel Nicolaus Price Target Raised Buy $22 to $23
AKAM Akamai Tech Deutsche Securities Downgraded from Buy to Hold $37 to $40
Computer Software
CVLT Commvault Systems RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Outperform $25 to $26
KANA Kana Software Roth Capital Price Target Raised Buy $3.50 to $4
MSTR MicroStrategy Roth Capital Price Target Raised Buy $100 to $120
VTAL Vital Images CIBC Wrld Mkts Downgraded from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform $29 to $19
SPRT SupportSoft Northland Securities Cut Price Target Outperform $7 to $6
WBSN Websense Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $23 to $21
Educational Services
COCO Corinthian Colleges BMO Capital Markets Price Target Raised Outperform $17 to $18
Environmental Prod
CF CF Industries Banc of America Sec Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
Gaming Operations
MGM MGM Mirage Nollenberger Capital Price Target Raised Buy $94 to $107
WYNN WYNN - price target raised at Jefferies to $152 P
LVS Las Vegas Sands Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight
Gold and Silver Mining
GRZ Gold Reserve RBC Capital Mkts Initiated at Outperform $10
AUY Yamana Gold UBS Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
Health-Beauty
Prod MCK McKesson Citigroup Upgraded from Hold to Buy
AVP Avon Products BMO Capital Markets Price Target Raised Outperform $43 to $48
EL Estee Lauder UBS Downgraded from Neutral to Sell
Healthcare
TEVA Teva Pharm Friedman Billings Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform $46 to $52
TEVA Teva Pharm HSBC Securities Price Target Raised Overweight $48 to $50
MDT MDT - upgraded to Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley U
Healthcare Facilities
AHS AMN Healthcare Services BMO Capital Markets Price Target Raised Outperform $21 to $23
AMED AMEDISYS Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
LCAV LCA Vision Oppenheimer Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
LCAV LCA Vision BMO Capital Markets Cut Price Target Market Perform $35 to $20
LCAV LCA Vision RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Perform $33 to $20
UHS Universal Health BMO Capital Markets Cut Price Target Market Perform $58 to $54
Industrial Equipment
WTS Watts Ind RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Perform $35 to $33
WTS Watts Ind Morgan Joseph Cut Price Target Buy $43 to $40
Insurance
SLF Sun Life RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Perform $57 to $59
PMI PMI Group Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $27 to $23
Manufacturing
ENR Energizer Bear Stearns Upgraded from Underperform to Peer Perform
BEC Beckman Coulter RBC Capital Mkts Downgraded from Outperform to Sector Perform
CROX Crocs Nollenberger Capital Price Target Raised Buy $64 to $77
Motor Vehicles
TEN Tenneco Wachovia Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
Oil and Gas
FTI FTI - Top Pick at FBRC T
FTI FMC Tech Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Outperform $77 to $80
WLL Whiting Petroleum RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Underperform $46 to $52
LNG Cheniere Energy RBC Capital Mkts Initiated at Outperform $50
BJS BJ Services RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Perform $33 to $27
Paper and Packaging
BMS Bemis Deutsche Securities Downgraded from Buy to Hold $36 to $33
Regional Banks
CPF CPB Inc RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Perform $34 to $24
TBBK The Bancorp Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Outperform $25 to $21
REITs
PPS Post Properties KeyBanc Capital Mkts Upgraded from Underweight to Hold
NLY Annaly Mortgage RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Outperform $18 to $19
Restaurants
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Outperform $109 to $142
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill Piper Jaffray Price Target Raised Outperform $100 to $150
CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill CIBC Wrld Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Outperform $140 to $150
BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Perform $43 to $40
BWLD Buffalo Wild Wings CIBC Wrld Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Outperform $48 to $42
Retail Trade
RBA Ritchie Bros. RBC Capital Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform
CVS CVS Corp UBS Resumed Coverage Buy $50
Savings & Loan
FBTX Franklin Bank Corp JP Morgan Upgraded from Underweight to Neutral
FBTX Franklin Bank Corp RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Perform $12 to $10
Semiconductors
PSEM Pericom Semi Northland Securities Price Target Raised Outperform $15 to $17
PSEM Pericom Semi Roth Capital Price Target Raised Buy $15 to $17.50
ACTS Action Semi Roth Capital Cut Price Target Hold $6 to $5.50
Services - Consumer
SFLY Shutterfly Cantor Fitzgerald Price Target Raised Buy $32 to $41
SFLY Shutterfly Jefferies & Co Downgraded from Buy to Hold $28 to $30
Solar Energy
SPWR Sunpower RBC Capital Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform
LDK LDK Solar Piper Jaffray Downgraded from Outperform to Market Perform
Stock Funds
TYG Tortoise Energy Infrastructure Stifel Nicolaus Resumed Coverage Buy $41
Telecommunications
EQIX Equinix Kaufman Bros Upgraded from Hold to Buy $96 to $120
EQIX Equinix CIBC Wrld Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform
EQIX Equinix RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Outperform $122 to $134
NMSS NMS Comms Cantor Fitzgerald Price Target Raised Buy $2.50 to $2.75
SIRF SiRF Technology Dougherty & Company Price Target Raised Buy $30 to $35
SIRF SiRF Technology RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Outperform $26 to $28
RIMM RIMM - price target raised to $146 at Bank of America P
SVR Syniverse Holdings Brean Murray Initiated at Buy $24
Q Qwest JP Morgan Downgraded from Overweight to Neutral
Q Qwest CIBC Wrld Mkts Downgraded from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform
CTV CTV - downgraded to Neutral at Merrill D
NIHD NIHD - downgraded to Underweight at Lehman and Morgan Stanley D
CTV Commscope Robert W. Baird Cut Price Target Outperform $62 to $60
Transportation
HUBG Hub Group Stifel Nicolaus Upgraded from Hold to Buy $31
PACR Pacer Intl KeyBanc Capital Mkts Downgraded from Buy to Hold
PACR Pacer Intl JP Morgan Downgraded from Overweight to Neutral
CP Canadian Pacific RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Outperform $86 to $83
PACR Pacer Intl Stifel Nicolaus Cut Price Target Buy $27 to $25
Utilities
TRP TransCanada Pipelines RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Outperform $41 to $42
PNW Pinnacle West JP Morgan Downgraded from Neutral to Underweight