Wednesday Morning, June 27th

Dow Stock News

Exxon (XOM) and Conoco (COP) are walking away from multibillion-dollar investments in Venezuela, refusing to join others that signed over majority stakes in giant projects to the state oil concern. - WSJ

Reuters writes that Citigroup (C) is "in advanced talks to buy Automated Trading Desk, an electronic trading firm, for about $700 million."

Reuters writes that McDonald's (MCD) efforts to move upscale in Europe are increasing sales.

MRK Merck Banc of America Sec Price Target Raised Neutral $48 to $52

    Ice Man Stocks

Breakouts the Ice Man may consider trading:
LPHI - 40
AATI - 10
DMC - 13.60
IN - 20.60
BIIB - 52.50 warning for 52.75 breakout Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
APOL - 51.75
MRT - 17.60
CPHD - 13.80
HSTI - 9.35
SOLF - 11.15
MENT - 13.10 Depressed stocks the Ice Man may buy:
SIRF
BTW - 43.80 Gap
CCJ - 47.65
SLV - 119 Gap
XAU - 130 Gap Dollar Man Ideas:
BRLC - 5.15 Bid
ALAN - 2.60
EMIS - 4.60 

   Media Commentators

Cramer's Comments:

   Ice Cold Commentators

Break Man Video Summary:

Break out buy watch list for short term gains June 27 includes: ATML, VRSN, CMTL, ININ, SUG, MHGC, TMTA, MED, DMC.

Several candidates for break out or pullback  plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out on good volume and selling at least some on the  first day. http://stocktiger.com

Swing Man Market Recap:

The market gapped up in the morning despite reports of continued weakness in the housing sector. However, after 10AM the market topped after the Consumer Confidence was reported at an eight month low. The market then declined gradually throughout the day.

Only a couple groups closed up; tobacco was the only group to gain more than 1%.

About 25% of the market groups lost at least 1% – nonferrous metals, food retailers & wholesalers, and coal dropped more than 3%, and oil exploration & production, steel, basic resources, home construction, airlines, forest products, and heavy construction fell over 2%.

If the general market is going to avoid breaking down from current levels, the Techs will have to come to the rescue again. I'd watch them closely during tomorrow's action. Durable goods orders will be reported before the open tomorrow, and the FED starts their FOMC meeting.

The market currently appears to be at a 'breakpoint' it needs to rally here or else it could begin to break down. I now see strong positive divergence in many of the 15 min index charts, and the beginnings of divergence on the 60 min index charts, therefore there is a good chance that the market puts on an oversold bounce soon. However, divergences don't always play out, therefore the market could also just sell off as well. However, I would advise some esracaution on the short side because the market has now been down so many days in a row.

Today DUG, which is the double inverse ETF to the oil/gas stock sector broke its downtrend line on good volume to trigger a buy signal. I discussed DUG last night and it is on the Daily List section of the website as a Long pick.

Now hopefully the broken downtrend line acts as support if a pullback occurs in the short term. I would look to buy more on a pullback that results in a restest of the broken downtrend line.

Also, APOL and ACTG from the Swing Trade watchlist triggered today on good volume.

Precious Metals:

The precious metals sector got nailed today and in the recent weekend
newsletter, I raised major concern for this area. The precious metal sector,
especially the stocks, have been one of the worst performing sectors in the
general market.

In the weekend newsletter I raised my concern regarding gold, which I think
could fall into a cyclical bear market! Gold entered into a secular bull
market in 2001 and has outperformed relative to the general market since
that time, however this trend might soon reverse itself. I know this is
heresy talk for 'gold bugs' however it is my job to give you the best most
accurate analysis that I can and this is what I see as a big possibility.
Secular bull markets last well over 10 years, and usually greater than 15
years. Every secular bull market contains a few short term cyclical bear
markets, therefore it might be time now for one of those short term cyclical
bear markets!

Those of you with strong interest in the gold know that the 65 week MA is
'key' support for gold metal going all the way back to 2001. The Aden
Sisters (well-known precious metal news writers) also state the importance
of the 65 week MA support for gold. If gold loses this support, then it will
likely go into a cyclical bear market!

Currently, the 65 week MA is at $639 and today gold closed at $645, which is
closer than it's been in a very long time. Therefore, gold is near a major
'breakpoint'. If gold breaches the 65 week MA, then a cyclical bear could be
on the rise; of course a quick breach is okay

Here's a chart with the 42 week MA (which is also the 200 day MA). I think a
bear market in gold will be confirmed if the 42 week MA crosses below the 65
week MA.

However, realize that gold is in a Secular bull market so I still think it
will power back to new highs over $1000 when it comes out of the cyclical
bear market ( if it goes into one)

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$GOLD&p=W&st=2000-11-01&i=p37502003433&a=64
126754&r=9117

Next, silver metal fell about 0.50 cents today and has lost support of its
65 week MA. This is not good folks!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$SILVER&p=W&st=2002-05-19&i=p14851514875&a=25754699&r=2068

Next, gold stocks look awful and have been under performing relative to gold
as well as one of the worst sectors in the entire market.

Last night I noted that the HUI Gold Bugs Index looked like it was forming
into a bearish descending triangle and today's action confirms the pattern.
As you can see from the chart below of the HUI, it has formed a perfect
bearish descending triangle! However realize that it's at support, therefore
we could see a weak bounce in very soon in the short term, however I would
look to short a bounce in this sector. This area is very dangerous and if
don't have a strong stomach, then stay away!

http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$HUI&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&i=p20903381416&a=54012623&r=5611

Market Summary - Do or Die Time:

Sitting On A Breakdown......

The bears have yet to take this market down and down hard meaning more than a 2% correction. They have the bulls right where they want them. The Dow is sitting a few tenth's of a percent above its long term trend line at 13300 and its 50 day exponential moving average at 13294. The bears go to sleep tonight knowing the Sp is sitting right on its trend line and below its 20 and 50 day ema's. They also go to sleep knowing the Nas is less than half a percent above its 50 day ema at 2560. The point of all of this being that they have the bulls at their mercy and should have absolutely no excuses creating the bigger correction everyone is betting on and believes will happen. The sentiment issues have held this market up no doubt but there does come a point when even the bears have to have victory for a while every now and then and I have to admit it does look like their time has arrived. However, let's see it. If the Nas loses 2560 and the Dow loses 13300 and 13294 and at the same time the SP loses 1495 then every major index will have lost critical support and then its lights out for the bulls. All of this on a closing basis of course.

I was very hopeful that the markets would allow this correction to be no more than 3% after such a long lateral consolidation and that's still a possibility but that sure doesn't seem to be the case. Many positive divergences are failing and this usually only happens when something uncommon is about to occur off the previous trend and here that would be a breakdown in the indexes. It's definitely not normal behavior and it is suggestive of a change of the trend although it hasn't officially happened yet. If the above levels break this correction could become quite nasty and we'll have to adjust to it. It does appear that it will take place but there are some decent divergences still existing on some 60 minute charts so there's hope albeit only a very little bit to be honest.

   CNBC Fast Money Review

1. Word on the Street
Dow Skid Continues
Bolling: Expect more movement to downside. Look for 1475 on S&P, 1850 on NASDAQ.
Najarian: Volitility index says expect movement.
Adami:  Caution should prevail.

Sinking Like a Stone
Adami:  BX IPO price was rich.
Bolling: Own stock when price settles.
Najarian: At $21 BX is a buy.

Oracle After Hours
Adami:  Likes ORCL.
Najarian: ORCL going in right direction.
Bolling: Great stock to own when market settles.

Desperate Housebuilders
Najarain: LEN disappointed as expected. BZH trading 20,000 puts.
Homebuilders not at bottom.
Adami:  When homebuilders trade at .7 times book buy it.

Off Target
Macke:  Give TGT space.
Najarian: Chairman sold 1 million shares. President sold 250K shares.

Trade Update: Picket Line, Aisle 3
Macke:  Grocers more of an investment. Space is long term hold.

Trade Update: Refiners Often Finer
Bolling: Own VLO, ALJ, WNR on dip. Big West Coast exposure.
Adami:  Get out of HOC.

A Really Dirty Trade
Bolling: Get long LNET.

2. The Top 3
Just Buy It?
Bolling: Likes NKE charts.

Buy Two Biotechs; Call Me In The Morning
Najarian: Now could be time for consolidation in biotech. Watch ISIS, MYOG, ELN, BMY, AZN.
Adami:  Likes BIIB as takeover target.

Trading a Dictator
Bolling: Best play is USO.

3. Face 2 Face
iPhone or iHype
Najarian: Short AAPL, go long NOK.

4. Strangling the Spider
Najarian: Buy SPY 149 puts, buy SPY 151 call.

5. Sea Change
Hispanic Buying Power
Bolling: Likes EVC.
Adami:  Likes EVC.

6. Final Trade
Bolling: GOOG is a buy, good charts.
Adami:  EMC is a buy on dip.
Najarian: UA is a buy.
Macke:  NKE is a buy in the afternoon.

   News and Events Digest

Breaking News

Oracle reported a 23% profit jump for its fiscal fourth quarter and forecast better-than-expected sales growth for this period. - WSJ

Given Imaging Ltd. (GIVN) the global leader in capsule endoscopy, today announced that Japan's Chuikyo (Central Social Health Insurance Committee) has approved reimbursement for the company's PillCam(TM) SB capsule endoscope. Effective October 1st, 2007, Japan's entire adult population will be eligible for reimbursement of the PillCam SB procedure for small bowel indications with obscure GI bleeding. This announcement follows approval from Japan's Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare (MHLW) to market and sell the PillCam SB capsule endoscope in Japan on April 23rd of this year. Japan is believed to be the world's second largest healthcare market.

Pharmaceutical company American Oriental Bioengineering Inc. (AOB) said in a regulatory filing that it will offer 8 million shares and selling stockholders will sell 500,000 shares. - Reuters

The Board of Directors of Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY) has approved several shareholder value initiatives. Specifically, the company approved a new $5.5 billion share repurchase program, which terminates and replaces the current share repurchase program, and increased its dividend by 30 percent. In addition, the company raised its new store potential in the United States for Best Buy superstores by 40 percent.

Media Summary:

The Wall Street Journal writes that new handsets from companies like Nokia (NOK) give customers access to Wi-Fi as well at cellular networks.

The Wall Street Journal writes that profits at Oracle (ORCL) rose 23%.

The Wall Street Journal reports that Amazon (AMZN) is "gaining fame as a place to buy digital storage and computing power."

The New York Times reports that  News Corp (NWS) MySpace will launch MySpact TV to compete with Google (GOOG) You Tube.

The FT writes that Dow Jones (DJ) is close to a deal with News Corp to oversee the editorial independence of the WSJ if the company is sold.

Barron's writes that Oracle (ORCL) says it plans to make more acquisitions.

According to Reuters, Bear Stearns (BCS) will put its CFO into a job overseeing its troubled hedge funds.

Reuters writes that the Swedish government will review the Nasdaq's (NDAQ) purchase of  Nordic bourses owner OMX.

Reuters reports that Sprint (S) will launch an ad campaign pointing to the speed of its network compared to that of competing services.

M&A Activity:

CommScope Inc. (CTV) agreed to acquire Andrew Corp. (ANDW) for about $2.6 billion, or $15 a share, with at least 90% in cash. CommScope, a infrastructure systems company, said under the terms of agreement, each share of Andrew common stock will be converted into $15, comprised of $13.50 a share in cash and an additional $1.50 a share in either cash, CommScope common stock, or a combination of cash and CommScope common stock totaling $1.50 a share, at CommScope's option. CommScope expects the deal to add to cash earnings, excluding special items, in the first full year after closing. - MarketWatch

Guitar Center Inc. (GTRC) said it agreed to be acquired by affiliates of Bain Capital Partners LLC, a private investment company, for about $2.1 billion. The Westlake Village, Calif., guitar retailer said terms of the agreement call for stockholders to receive $63 in cash for each share of Guitar Center owned. The deal is a 26% premium over the closing price of Guitar Center's shares on June 26, the company said. - MarketWatch

Biogen Idec Inc.  (BIIB) today announced the preliminary results of its modified "Dutch Auction" tender offer which expired at 12:00 midnight ET on Tuesday, June 26, 2007. Biogen Idec expects to accept for payment an aggregate of 56,428,198 shares of its common stock at a purchase price of $53 per share, for an aggregate share repurchase of approximately $3 billion. These shares represent approximately 16.4 percent of the shares outstanding as of June 25, 2007.

Economic Data:

Stock Splits:

Recent Stock Split Announcements:

On June 19, Sun Hydraulics Corporation (Nasdaq:SNHY) announced that its board of directors approved a 3:2 stock split to be payable on July 16, 2007.

On June 19, Shenandoah Telecommunications Company (Nasdaq:SHEN) announced that its board of directors approved a 3:1 stock split to be mailed on or about August 17, 2007.

On June 19, Flotek Industries, Inc. (AMEX:FTK) announced that its board of directors approved a 2:1 stock split to be distributed on July 11, 2007.

On June 20, Texas Pacific Land Trust (NYSE:TPL) announced that its board of directors approved a 5:1 stock split to be payable on July 12, 2007.

Companies that have previously announced stock splits which become effective in the next several trading days.

Ex-Date Split Symbol Company
6/27 2:1 YUM Yum! Brands, Inc.
6/28 2:1 CCF Chase Corporation
6/29 3:2 SPAR Spartan Motors, Inc.
6/29 2:1 VSEC VSE Corporation
7/2 3:2 FLO Flowers Foods, Inc.
7/2 6:5 CLBH Carolina Bank Holdings, Inc.
7/2 2:1 PBR Petroleo Brasileiro

   Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:

Chemicals:
CYT - upgraded to Buy at Goldman Sachs
MOS - downgraded to Neutral at Goldman Sachs

Trucking:
JBHT - upgraded at RBCM with $35 price target

Biotechnology:
NUVO - downgraded to Under perform at WBLO

Brokerage Services
 TROW T. Rowe Price Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $69

Computer Hardware
 FFIV F5 Networks Robert W. Baird Downgraded from Outperform to Neutral $83

Computer Services
 THK Think Partnership Canaccord Adams Initiated at Buy $4

Computer Software
 FIRE Sourcefire Jefferies & Co Upgraded from Hold to Buy $14 to $15
 IVZ InVesco Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $34

Finance Companies
 AB AllianceBernstein Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $105
 AMG Affiliated Managers Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $155
 BEN Franklin Resources Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $176
 FIG Fortress Investment Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $32

Healthcare
 MLNM Millennium Pharm Friedman Billings Upgraded from Underperform to Mkt Perform $7 to $10
 PRXL PAREXEL Bear Stearns Upgraded from Underperform to Peer Per

Healthcare Equipment
 BRKR Bruker BioSciences Bear Stearns Upgraded from Underperform to Peer Per
 VMSI Ventana Medical Bear Stearns Downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform

Healthcare Facilities
 SUNH Sun Healthcare Morgan Keegan Initiated at Outperform

Homebuilders
 RYL Ryland Group Deutsche Securities Initiated at Buy $52

Insurance
 ACGL Arch Capital Credit Suisse Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform $80 to $83

Major Pharmaceutical
 PHRM Pharmion Cowen & Co Initiated at Outperform

Medical Devices-China
 MR Mindray Medical Brean Murray Initiated at Buy $36

Oil and Gas
 GEL Genesis Energy, L.P. Stanford Research Initiated at Buy $40
 SUN Sunoco Citigroup Downgraded from Buy to Hold
 TSO Tesoro Petroleum Citigroup Downgraded from Hold to Sell
 VLO Valero Energy Citigroup Downgraded from Hold to Sell

Regional Banks
 CHFC Chemical Financial Boenning & Scattergd Upgraded from Mkt Underper to Market Per

REITs
 AEC Associated Estates Robert W. Baird Initiated at Outperform $17

Retail Trade
 KSS Kohl's Robert W. Baird Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform $85

Telecommunications
 TNB Thomas & Betts RBC Capital Mkts Initiated at Outperform

Transportation
 JBHT JB Hunt Trans KeyBanc Capital Mkts Upgraded from Hold to Buy $35