Tuesday Morning, December 4th
Dow Stock News
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp. (8053.TO) said Tuesday that it will sell its entire stake in struggling supermarket operator Seiyu Ltd. (8268.TO) to Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT). - MarketWatch
Boeing Co. (BA) confirmed Lion AsiaPac Ltd.'s (L08.SG) Lion Air, a Jakarta-based airline, as the previously unidentified customer to order 22 737-900 extended range aircraft in the second quarter, valued at more than $1.7 billion.
Boeing, a Chicago aircraft maker, said Lion Air now has 122 of the 737-900ER jets on order. - MarketWatch
Drug maker Merck & Co. (MRK) on Tuesday backed its 2007 profit target range of $3.08 to $3.14 a share, excluding certain items, and anticipates earning per share, including items, in a range of $1.45 to $1.51. Merck expects 2008 profit in a range of $3.28 to $3.38 a share, excluding certain items and profit including items in a range of $3.96 to $4.06 a share. Analysts, on average, expected it to earn $3.15 a share for 2007 and $3.39 a share for 2008, according to Thomson Financial. Merck continues to expect the initial phase of its cost-cutting program, announced in 2005, to yield cumulative pretax savings of $4.5 billion to $5 billion from 2006 through 2010 and as previously stated, about $2 billion of the total restructuring savings through 2010 will result from the implementation of its manufacturing supply strategy. Merck remains on track to cut 7,000 jobs by the end of 2008. So far, through Sept. 30, about 6,000 positions have been eliminated. - MarketWatch
International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) said it expects to increase investments by more than $120 million over the next two years in Sub-Saharan Africa. The information technology company said it will also hire up to 100 students from Sub-Saharan universities. The company, which has operated in Africa for nearly six decades, said the Sub-Saharan market is expected to grow from development and expansion of telecommunications networks, power grids and transport infrastructure. IBM said it plans to create an Africa Innovation Centre that will house the continent's first High Performance On Demand Solutions Lab (HiPODS). The South Africa facility is scheduled to open during the second quarter. - MarketWatch
Reuters writes that November auto sales were weak with GM's (GM) sales dropping 11%.
The Wall Street Journal writes that GM (GM) will cut its 2008 production due to falling demand.
Ice Man Stocks
Breakouts the Ice Man may consider trading:
POT - 127
MCD - 60.35
GR - 73.50
TXT - 71
CSCA - 14
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
GLDN - 105.80
OII - 67.75
NOV - 71
ZUMZ - 30.50
BTJ - 40.25
ELOS - 15
Depressed stocks the Ice Man may buy:
S&P Futures - 1452
COMPX - 2581 Gap
QLD - 99.50 Gap
AIG - 54.50 Gap
Extended Shorts:
FSIN - 21/22
Dollar Man Ideas:
WMG - 8.10
RCH - 8
PDRT - 3.50
Media Commentators
Cramer's Comments:
Bullish: VIA-B, PWRD
Ice Cold Commentators
Break Man Video Summary:
Break out buy (or short sell) watch list for short term gains December 4 includes: BGG, ABH, CNOA, URI, ANR, GPS, KFT.
Several candidates for break out or short sell plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out (or selling the break down) on good volume and closing at least some on the first day.
Swing Man Market Recap:
Stocks end lower on the session as they attempt to consolidate recent gains. The market opened lower Monday morning as the SPX hit 1471 by 10:00, then rallied until about 12:30 to turn mixed on the day. When the SPX could not break above pivot resistance at 1484 another pullback followed that saw the SPX make new lows on the day at 1470 by 3:00. Overall, it was a fairly uneventful day in the market as the attempts to work off near term overbought conditions. At the close the SPX/DOW lost 0.50% while the NDX/NAZ gave back 0.95%. Bonds again rallied on the day gaining in excess of 1 point, Crude Oil reversed up during the day and gained $1.10, and Gold also rallied $8.10. Pivot support for the SPX remains at 1462 and then 1438, with pivot resistance at 1484. Short term momentum continues to ease lower after the overbought condition registered on Friday.
The market as measured by the SPX has now established a wide trading range between 1405 (bottom) and 1490 (top). Such a wide range in this index is mirrored by many stocks which are currently displaying wide and loose patterns. Currently, the SPX is pulling back off our highlighted 1490 resistance level (potential neckline) and may be in the process of forming a right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. The formation of this pattern takes some time to develop and is typically associated with choppy trading that serves to shake people out of their positions. This makes for a very difficult trading environment and thus one should focus on playing only the best stock patterns (near support) until this plays out. The market needs time to form that right side so it can develop a base from which it´s able to stage another rally. The 60 minute charts of the major indexes are in the process of unwinding their oscillators (working off the overbought readings). Monday, the SPX pulled back on lighter volume when compared to last Wednesday´s breakout. It´s imperative that volume contracts as the market pulls back for this pattern to gain validity. This is something we have to monitor over the coming days, but today met the criteria. The internals were negative as one would expect without a large increase in the number of new lows – this indicates the selling was mostly contained to some higher priced stocks prior that are in need of some corrective action. Let´s continue to watch the internals closely for confirmation in the days ahead.
In summary, the market is in the midst of consolidating its recent gains. When some of the former leaders (RIMM, GOOG, etc.) have finished correcting and the SPX right shoulder reaches a level commensurate with its left shoulder (see first chart below) that´s when we would expect buyers to appear in force. As long as the major indexes remain above there recent gaps from last Wednesday, we need to give the benefit of the doubt to the bulls. However, one should not get overly aggressive until the 1490 resistance area is taken out. In the meantime, continue to focus on the best setups for trading opportunities and let´s see how things play out this week. Please remember to the listen to the Iceman throughout the day for market updates and trading ideas.
Good Trading.
CNBC Fast Money Review
1. FRENCH STRIVE TO BE GUITAR HEROES
The headline: France's VIV To Combine Games Unit With ATVI, Maker Of 'Guitar Hero'
Macke says I think this represents consolidation in the entire videogame space. Personally as an ATVI shareholder, I was hoping for a better premium. And I think the trade is now TTWO and THQI, because they could also be takeover.
Karen Finerman adds that if you own Activision shares, you will have a chance to tender into a $27.50 offer for about 50% of your shares, if you choose.
2. AMBER WAVES OF GAINS
The headline: Agricultural Stocks Rally After AGU Agrees To Buy UAPH For $2.65B
Pete Najarian says it´s a testament to the global growth story. Agrium's purchase of UAP will make it North America's largest agricultural retailer.
3. CRUDE REVERSAL
The headline: Oil Drops Following Venezuelan Referendum, Then Reverses On OPEC Expectations.
Guy Adami believes crude oil will move lower. However, he adds already crude is $10 off its highs.
4. BRIGHT, SHINY OPTIONS
The headline: Pete Seeing Unusual Options Activity In Solar Stocks; LDK, TSL, SPWR, Solar Stocks Jumping Monday
Najarian says solar stocks are still in play and he bought calls in Trina Monday.
5. TRIPLE PLAY
Beginning Wednesday, data will hit the Street that´s likely to move markets. What do you need to know, now?
Date Meeting
Wed Dec. 5th Meeting of the OPEC conference
Thurs. Dec. 6th Same-store sales
Fri. Dec 7th Jobs Report
Pete Najarian says I like COP on the OPEC meeting.
Jeff Macke says Same-store sales will likely be solid, and I think you can buy retailers going into the numbers – as a trade.
Karen Finerman says it's the jobs number will be the number of the week. If consumers have jobs, they will spend money.
6. POPS AND DROPS
NFLX popped 3%: Macke thinks this pop was made to be sold.
SHLD popped 5%: Macke says there´s no reason to own this stock.
LEN popped 6%: Adami says avoid the entire space.
ETFC dropped 11%: Macke says run away.
RIMM dropped 8%: Najarian says the stock has gone up too fast.
PAY dropped 46%: Adami suspects this stock has more downside.
BIG dropped 6%: Finerman reveals she´s short BIG.
CAR dropped 6%: Adami says anything auto related isn´t good, right now.
MHP dropped 6%: Adami anticipates the stock will move lower from here.
7. NAVAGATING THE CHARTS
Will the bulls or bears likely dominate the Street in the year ahead? Find out from one of the most esteemed market technicians in the world.
Barry Ritholtz, is Director of Research at Fusion IQ Research, (an asset management firm with $100 million under management) and he joins the panel. Following is a synopsis.
Despite a tough tape and allot of negative news (high energy costs, subprime mess, slow earnings growth), Ritholtz remains cautiously bullish due to the market technicals.
He says, because the S&P has yet to break its 5-year trend line (despite testing it several times) investors should stay long.
He adds there are a couple names that have shown great relative strength and warrant a special look. They are STT which is up 16% YTD versus a 16% decline for the XLF. Also, he likes SXE a global infrastructure play. The company is up 113% YTD.
Guy Adami also likes STT.
Karen Finerman says she´s skeptical of technical analysis, overall. She prefers to look at the valuation of a company before making a decision to buy or sell the stock.
8. YOUR FIRST MOVE FOR TUESDAY
Jeff Macke likes THQI on Monday´s Activision buyout.
Guy Adami recommends betting against the Dow by buying DOG, but with a tight stop.
Karen Finerman prefers KSS.
Pete Najarian likes USB as a Warren Buffett play.
News and Events Digest
Breaking News
Dell is executing on strategies to simplify information technology and provide customers easier ways to connect with an expanding portfolio of innovative products and services, Michael Dell today told shareholders at the company’s annual meeting. The company also announced that its board of directors authorized $10 billion in repurchases of common stock. Dell will resume the share repurchase program this week.
Marketing company Acorn International Inc. (ATV) said Tuesday that it's board of directors has approved a $30 million share repurchase program. "The approval of the share repurchase program by our board of directors reflects our ongoing commitment to increase shareholder value and confidence that the current American depository shares price levels do not reflect our current potential value," said CEO James Hu. - MarketWatch
China's government has granted approval to China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. (SNP), or Sinopec, and Kuwait Petroleum Corp. to launch a feasibility study on building a joint venture refining and petrochemical complex in the southern province of Guangdong. - MarketWatch
Medarex Inc. (MEDX) said that the Food & Drug Administration has approved two separate investigational new drug applications filed for MDX-1342, one for the treatment of chronic lymphocytic leukemia and the other for rheumatoid arthritis. "We are pleased with the advancement of a new product candidate from Medarex's proprietary pipeline into clinical trials," said Howard Pien, president and CEO. - MarketWatch
Yahoo Japan Corp. and eBay Inc. will join forces to broaden their online marketplaces and enable cross-border bidding on auction items. - MarketWatch
China Unicom Ltd. (CHU) hasn't begun talks with Apple Inc. (AAPL) to offer the popular iPhone in China, the company's vice President, Li Zheng Mao, said Tuesday.
But China Unicom is still open to cooperating with Apple, the executive reiterated on the sidelines of the Mobility World Congress in Hong Kong. The executive's comments come after a report in the Southern Daily newspaper last month that cited unnamed sources as saying talks between Apple and China Mobile Ltd. (CHL) to offer the iPhone had broken down. - MarketWatch
Goldman Sachs changed ratings on European airlines, cutting earnings estimates on most of them because of an anticipated negative pricing environment in 2008. Lower revenue and higher fuel cost assumptions leave the broker's estimates 20% below consensus, it said. - MarketWatch
Nokia Corp., the world's largest maker of mobile phones, unveiled its financial targets for the next two years at its annual investor day Tuesday, raising its operating margin forecasts and stressing it aims to gain market share in mobile devices. But Nokia shares declined 4.5% in Helsinki midday trading as new margin goals were deemed too conservative. - MarketWatch
Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC) has discovered oil at its West Tonga prospect on Green Canyon block 726 in the Gulf of Mexico. The Houston oil exploration company operates West Tonga with a 37.5% working interest. Partners in the discovery include StatoilHydro ASA (STO), with a 25% working interest, Chevron Corp. (CVX), with a 20.5% working interest and Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA, RDSB), with a 17% working interest. The discovery well, located in about 4,700 feet of water, was drilled to a total depth of 25,680 feet and encountered more than 350 feet of net oil pay in three high-quality subsalt Miocene sands. - MarketWatch
Media Summary
According to Reuters, the Henry Paulson said that a plan would be ready this week to spare some homeowners from mortgage resets.
Reuters reports that the chief technology officer has left Motorola (MOT)
Reuters writes that the CEO of Countrywide (CFC) does not see the mortgage company going bankrupt.
The Wall Street Journal writes that Yahoo Japan and Ebay (EBAY) will link up to create an auction sit in Japan.
The Wall Street Joural writes that Chinese car maker Chery is preparing to compete with global car makers outside its home market.
The Wall Street Journal writes that Thomson may be buying Reuters (RTRSY) at the peak of its profit cycle.
The New York Times writes that Genentech's (DNA) drug Avastin did not help women with breast cancer live longer but did have negative side effects
The New York Times writes that Nokia (NOK) expects to target handset margins of 20% for next year.
The New York Times reports that top China steelmaker Baosteel is considering a bid for Rio TInto (RTP).
CNN Money writes that Fannie Mae (FNM) could face another $5 billion in writedowns.
Bloomberg writes that Nokia believes that global cell phone sales will grow 10% next year and that there will be 4 billion handset users by 2009.
Barron's reports that the FTC is likely to approve Google's (GOOG) purchase of DoubleClick
IPO Central:
RAK Airways, the fourth UAE's airline that launched its inaugural flight to Bangladesh last week, may offer shares to the public in the next two to three years, the airline's chief operating officer said Monday.
"An initial public offering is on the cards and could happen in the next 24 to 36 months," Khalid Almeer told Zawya Dow Jones by telephone. "It would be an IPO in the local market." - MarketWatch
Gushan Environmental Energy Ltd., China's largest producer of biodiesel fuel, late Monday filed to raise up to $250 million in an initial public offering with underwriter Merrill Lynch. The company plans to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol GU. Gushan Environmental makes biodiesel, glycerine and plant asphalt from a variety of feedstocks, such as vegetable oil, animal fat and recycled cooking oil. - MarketWatch
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Advertising
FMCN Focus Media Pali Research Initiated at Buy $100
Biotech
MBLX Cantor Fitzgerald Says to Buy
CELG Celgene Wachovia Initiated at Outperform
KOSN Kosan Biosciences Wachovia Initiated at Mkt Perform
Brokerage Services
BSC Bear Stearns Punk, Ziegel & Co Downgraded from Mkt Perform to Sell
ETFC E*TRADE GARP Research Downgraded from Buy to Neutral $4
GS Goldman Sachs Punk, Ziegel & Co Downgraded from Mkt Perform to Sell
LEH Lehman Brothers Punk, Ziegel & Co Downgraded from Mkt Perform to Sell
Business Services
PAY Verifone Credit Suisse Downgraded from Outperform to Neutral
Chemicals
AGU Agrium CIBC Wrld Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Perform $63 to $70
Computer Software
ATVI Activision Lehman Brothers Upgraded from Equal-weight to Overweight
LFT Longtop Financial Jefferies & Co Initiated at Buy
LFT Longtop Financial Deutsche Securities Initiated at Buy $30
ARBA Ariba JMP Securities Downgraded from Strong Buy to Mkt Outperform
ORCL Oracle JMP Securities Downgraded from Strong Buy to Mkt Outperform
PMTC Parametric Needham & Co Cut Price Target Buy $24 to $22
Healthcare
CEPH Cephalon Friedman Billings Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform $77 to $95
ALTH Allos Therapeutics Wachovia Initiated at Mkt Perform
ALTH Allos Therapeutics Banc of America Sec Initiated at Buy $11
ARQL ArQule Banc of America Sec Initiated at Buy $9
ARRY Array Biopharma Morgan Joseph Initiated at Buy $16
MLNM Millennium Pharm Wachovia Initiated at Mkt Perform
MOGN MGI Pharma Wachovia Initiated at Mkt Perform
OSIP OSI Pharm Banc of America Sec Initiated at Buy $65
SUPG SuperGen Wachovia Initiated at Mkt Perform
Hotels and Motels
CHH Choice Hotels Wachovia Upgraded from Underperform to Mkt Perform
Household Goods
LEG Leggett & Platt Morgan Keegan Downgraded from Mkt Perform to Underperform
Insurance
MET MetLife Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Outperform $83 to $76
Internet Services
CCOI Cogent Communications RBC Capital Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform
Mining - Steel & Iron
CLF Cleveland-Cliffs JP Morgan Initiated at Overweight
TONS Novamerican Steel CIBC Wrld Mkts Coverage Dropped
Oil and Gas
APC Anadarko Petro Credit Suisse Price Target Raised Outperform $62 to $63
BHI Baker Hughes Oppenheimer Initiated at Buy $106
CLB Core Labs Oppenheimer Initiated at Buy $130
CPX Complete Production Sv Oppenheimer Initiated at Buy $26
DVR Cal Drive Intl Oppenheimer Initiated at Buy $16
WG Willbros Group Oppenheimer Initiated at Buy $45
WHQ W-H Energy Svcs Oppenheimer Initiated at Buy $73
CEO CNOOC Ltd Credit Suisse Downgraded from Outperform to Neutral
Publishing
SGK Schawk Robert W. Baird Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform $20
Recreation
JAKK JAKKS Pacific BMO Capital Markets Price Target Raised Market Perform $27 to $30
OO Oakley Merriman Curhan Ford Coverage Dropped
REITs
ANH Anworth Mortgage Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Mkt Perform $5.50 to $7
Retail Trade
PSUN Pacific Sunwear Banc of America Sec Resumed Coverage Buy $20
URBN Urban Outfitters Banc of America Sec Resumed Coverage Buy $32
ZUMZ Zumiez Banc of America Sec Resumed Coverage Buy $34
GMTN Gander Mountain William Blair Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform
TIF Tiffany & Co Banc of America Sec Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
DEBS Deb Shops Merriman Curhan Ford Coverage Dropped
URGI United Retail Merriman Curhan Ford Coverage Dropped
Solar Energy
FSLR First Solar CIBC Wrld Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Outperform $230 to $250
Technical Services
ACM Merrill Lynch Upgraded to Buy