Tuesday Morning, September 25th
Dow Stock News
Microsoft is in talks to buy an up-to-5% stake in Facebook, a move that could value the social-networking site at $10 billion or more. - WSJ
According to Reuters, Microsoft (MSFT) launched its Halo 3 game which is essential to driving Xbox sales.
Reuters writes that the UAW struck GM (GM) as contract negotiations failed.
The Wall Street Journal writes that Microsoft in in talks to buy 5% of social network Facebook.
Ice Man Stocks
Breakouts the Ice Man may consider trading:
ESI - 122
ONXX - 44.85
CHT - 19
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
VMED - 24
WU - 21.50
CSIQ - Closed Well
AAV - 12.20
CNE - 15
VNO - 109, 110
Depressed stocks the Ice Man may buy:
BSC - 110.10 Gap
ZNH - 70 Gap, and 1/2 Retracement
MS - 60.15 Gap, 59 Gap
OIH - 188 Gap
CEA - 95 Gap
LOW - 26.90 Gap
SHLD - 117.40 Gap
GE - 40.20 Gap
ALOG - 66.40 Gap
VSEA - 50.40 Gap
Extended Shorts:
OSG - 80/81
EXM - 57/58
Dollar Man Ideas:
HSOA - 3.22
KKD - 3.75
PACT - 5.10
SUF - 8.10
Depressed Dollar
MHJ - 7.80
Media Commentators
Cramer's Comments:
Bullish: BBY, CCL, AAPL, GOOG, RIMM, AMZN;
Ice Cold Commentators
Break Man Video Summary:
Break out buy (or short sell) watch list for short term gains September 25 includes: CVS, XLK, ITU, PVX, SOLF, ELON, NPSP, GMO.
Several candidates for break out or short sell plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out (or selling the break down) on good volume and closing at least some on the first day.
Swing Man Market Recap:
Consolidating....
The market, in particular the Sp, spent a good deal of time boring everyone by trading in a narrow triangle between 1450 and 1490. Finally, the fed did his deed by cutting rates .50 bp on both the fed funds and discount market and the SP broke through that magic 1490 level and shot up. However, now it's trading between 1490 and the old high that is the last wall of resistance on this market, 1556. The markets, on this last blast higher, have gotten somewhat overbought on the 60 minute charts. Overbought is never a sell signal. It's a pause to refresh signal and nothing more. Never use overbought or oversold to dictate the actual health of a given stock or index. Overbought usually but not always represents health, not illness. Markets can and do stay very overbought at times as we all know but we have to respect the signal and for now it is holding the market down a bit. The market is behaving fine. A day like today just allows the oscillators to unwind further and set things up for a later date when this market will allow a break through 1556 on the SP and blast off on another powerful leg higher.
Sentiment levels, while not as perfect as a few weeks ago, are still very bullish in terms of ratcheting up pessimism. It's there on a daily basis and the masses still aren't close to being convinced the recent gains are for real or that a whole lot more is out there to come. As long as that continues, and I believe it will for a long time, then this market isn't close to being finished with this bull. A bear market will follow this bull for sure but we're far away from that becoming an issue we'll need to deal with. The internals continue to be favorable overall. Although not perfect, breadth and volume trends are solid.
Let's go over some support levels as we handle out. The SP closed at 1517. Support is at 1490 on both the 20 day exponential moving average (ema) and the triangle breakout level. That 1490 is key and when you add 1484 as the 50 day ema you have a strong confluence of support between 1484 and 1490 that should not be lost on any further market pullback. The Nasdaq closed at 2667 and has strong support at 2611 or the 20 day and then 2593 or its 50 day ema. The Dow, which closed at 13,759 has support at 13493 or its 20 day ema. The 50 day is just below that at 13416. Two strong support moving averages less than 100 points apart. Those levels should not be taken out on any normal overbought pullback.
The daily macd's are fine but not as perfect on those 60's and when you add in overbought, it can mean we fall further here as we handle out. The indexes and many leading stocks are down and some decently after hours. It foretells of a market headed lower in the morning. Let there be some selling that will allow you to enter some additional plays on weakness. I am always looking for opportunities and in this market we are using weakness very well to grab some great patterns and improving divergences on individual plays. One day at a time here and let's see how the market deals with pulling back.
Good Trading.
CNBC Fast Money Review
1. MICROSOFT SHOOTS UP
The headline: MSFT Sees Best 1-Day Gain Since April Ahead Of "Halo 3" Release Tuesday WSJ.
Najarian says more money will be generated by this premiere than any movie opening -- and he´s encouraged by advance word.
Adami anticipates MSFT stock will climb as high as $32.
2. NUCLEAR PROFLIERATION
The headline: NRG To Submit 1st Application For New US Nuclear Reactor In 30 Years.
Najarian thinks the trade is BHP, which he believes is sitting on the world´s largest supply of uranium. He also says CCJ might also have a great deal of upside on the news.
Finerman likes FLS.
Adami prefers FLR.
Macke recommends NRG.
3. PROMISING DRUG HEADLINES
Look for pharmaceutical and biotech companies to make news this week as a UBS industry conference kicks off in New York. Also, Merrill Lynch analysts believe pricing power for prescription drugs is returning. What´s the trade?
Adami likes PFE because he feels it´s cheap right now.
Najarian recommends MYGN as well as DGX for preventative medicine.
Macke says JNJ is a buy.
4. HOMBUILDERS ON SHAKEY FOUNDATION
Homebuilders got murdered Monday. Investors seem to be anticipating more bad news when the government reports existing home sales data Tuesday. Meanwhile, industry giants LEN and KBH report earnings this week. Has the housing market bottomed?
Finerman expects to see write-downs and says the real question for her is, what will be the magnitude of these write-downs. She recommends avoiding highly levered companies such as WCI and HOV.
Adami tells investors if you don't have to trade in this sector, why do it?
5. LOWE'S & TARGET
The headline: What's The Trade Ahead Of LOW Analyst Meeting Tuesday? Also, TGT Lowers September Same Store Guidance.
Macke says the Target guidance is bad news and it leaves him feeling concerned about retail overall.
Finerman isn´t as bearish and remains a buyer of premiere retail franchises such as Target.
6. POPS AND DROPS
BHP popped 5%: Speculation is growing that the Australian miner may have uncovered the world's largest gold deposit at its Olympic Dam site. – Najarian likes BHP for gold as well as copper and uranium.
CROX popped 9%: Guy Adami says take profit in CROX.
NYX popped 2%: Finerman expects NYX to continue higher, still.
LVS popped 7%: Macke says get out.
EMC popped 8%: Adami reminds he anticipated this pop a few days ago.
AMR dropped 14%: Macke says sell the airlines.
HAR dropped 6%: Finerman wouldn´t touch this stock.
ADTN dropped 14%: Macke recommends sticking with PC´s and chips.
7. YOUR FIRST MOVE FOR TUESDAY
Macke expects a pull back and recommends Shorting DOG.
Adami says PFE is a buy on valuation.
Finerman prefers NMX.
Najarian likes VCLK
News and Events Digest
Breaking News
Standard & Poor's said Monday it will add InterContinental Exchange Inc., Tesoro Corp., Teradata Corp. and Expedia Inc. to the S&P 500 index. Being removed is Maxim Integrated Products, Beazer Homes, First Data, and Solectron Corp. Additionally, OptionsXpress Holdings Inc. will join the S&P SmallCap 600 after the close of trading Friday. The company will replace RARE Hospitality, which is being purchased by Darden Restaurants Inc. - AP
Lennar Corp. (LEN) reported a net loss of $513.9 million, or $3.25 a share, for the third quarter ended Aug. 31, a reversal from the prior year's net earnings of $206.7 million, or $1.30 a share. The Miami-based home builder's quarterly revenue plunged to $2.34 billion from $4.18 billion in the third quarter of fiscal 2006. Analysts, on average, had been looking for revenue of $2.39 billion, according to estimates compiled by Thomson Financial. Valuation adjustments and write-offs of option deposits and pre-acquisition costs, goodwill and financial-services notes receivable totaled $856.8 million in the latest quarter, equating to $3.33 a share, Lennar said. On an adjusted basis, gross margins on home sales narrowed to 14.0% from 19.5%, primarily reflecting higher incentives. Home deliveries dropped 41% in the latest quarter, with the average sales price of homes delivered off 6%. CEO Stuart Miller said Lennar's cut the size of its work force by 35% and expects to make further reductions during the fourth quarter. - MarketWatch
Molson Coors Brewing Co.'s (TAP) Coors Brewing unit Tuesday said it signed a five-year pact with the National Association for Stock Car Auto Racing to become the official beer sponsor of NASCAR. The Golden, Colo., beer company said Coors Light will be the official beer of NASCAR, with exclusive rights to NASCAR logos in advertising, packaging and promotions, as well as the right to brand the pole award. Financial terms of the agreement weren't disclosed. - MarketWatch
Oil and gas company Stone Energy Corp (SGY) said its board approved a share buback program of up to $100 million.
The shares may be repurchased from time to time in the open market or through privately negotiated transactions, the company added. - Reuters
EchoStar Communications Corp. (DISH), the Englewood Colo., provider of television services via satellite, said it is mulling whether to split itself into two publicly traded companies. The goal: to unlock value that investors might have missed up to now. Under the plan, EchoStar's U.S. satellite-TV business, DISH Network, would continue to operate, while its other technology and infrastructure assets would be spun off to holders. The deal would give EchoStar's holders pro-rata ownership interests in each company. EchoStar has asked the U.S. Internal Revenue Service to rule on whether the deal would be tax free to its holders. - MarketWatch
Swiss drugmaker Roche Holding AG (RHHBY) Tuesday confirmed it has filed a complaint with the District Court of New Jersey against Dr. Reddy's Laboratories Ltd. (RDY) of India, for infringement of patents related to osteoporosis drug Boniva.
Dr. Reddy's is attempting to get the U.S. Food and Drug Administration approval for the marketing of a generic version of Boniva in a 150mg dose. - MarketWatch
Reliance Retail Ltd. is in talks with U.S.'s specialty retail chain Gap Inc. (GPS) over a possible franchisee tie-up for the Indian company's apparel business, the Economic Times reported, citing unnamed sources.
The tie-up between Gap and the retail unit of Reliance Industries Ltd. will initially cover the Gap and Banana Republic brands, the report said. - MarketWatch
Media Summary:
Reuters reportst that Echostar (DISH) has bought Slingbox, a company that allow TV to be transferred to devices like PCs.
The Wall Street Journal writes that Apple (AAPL) says that hacks of its iPhone software will permanently damage the device.
The Wall Street Journal writes that both Lowe's (LOW) and Target (TGT) warned of slow sales.
The New York Times writes that Bristol-Myers (BMY) will buy Adnexus Therapeutics, a biotech company, for $430 million.
The FT writes that BP's (BP) new CEO said the next quarter will be "dreadful".
Barron's writes that AmTech research indicates that headcount growth is slowing at Google (GOOG).
IPO Central:
Virgin Mobile USA Inc. on Tuesday said it plans to offer 27.5 million shares at $15-$17 a share in a bid to raise $440 million in its upcoming initial public offering with underwriters Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch. The Warren, N.J. mobile communications specialist plans to trade on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol VM. Virgin Mobile USA reported adjusted earnings of $29.3 million on revenue of $667 million in the six months ended June 30. Virgin Mobile USA was formed in 2001 as a joint venture between Sprint Ventures Inc. and Bluebottle USA Holdings L.P., an affiliate of Sir Richard Branson's Virgin Group. - MarketWatch
Economic Data:
10:00 Consumer Confidence
10:00 Existing Home Sales
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Airlines - Passenger
GOL Gol Intelligent Airlines JP Morgan Upgraded from Underweight to Neutral
TAM TAM S.A. JP Morgan Upgraded from Underweight to Neutral
Beverages
CSG Cadbury Schweppes Bear Stearns Downgraded from Peer Perform to Underperform
Biotech
BMRN Biomarin Pharm Rodman & Renshaw Price Target Raised Mkt Outperform $22.50 to $29
APPY AspenBio Pharma Oppenheimer Initiated at Buy $16
PANC Panacos Pharma Caris & Company Downgraded from Above Average to Average $5 to $3.50
Broadcasting
IACI Morgan Stanley Upgraded to Buy
WON Westwood One Deutsche Securities Upgraded from Hold to Buy $4 to $3.50
LNET LodgeNet CIBC Wrld Mkts Dropped Coverage
Business Services
ACN Accenture Stifel Nicolaus Cut Price Target Buy $48 to $44
Computer Hardware
SNIC Sonic Solutions JP Morgan Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight
FFIV F5 Networks Ferris Baker Watts Price Target Raised Buy $40 to $42
EMC EMC Corp Jefferies & Co Initiated at Buy $25
EMC EMC Corp Banc of America Sec Initiated at Buy $24
Computer Software
ARTG Art Technology Northland Securities Initiated at Outperform $4.50
Construction
BKR Michael Baker Oppenheimer Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
Educational Services
LTRE Learning Tree Stifel Nicolaus Price Target Raised Buy $18 to $21
Finance Companies
FDC First Data Friedman Billings Dropped Coverage
Foods
CPO Corn Products BB&T Capital Mkts Downgraded from Buy to Hold
DF Dean Foods Bear Stearns Downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform
K Kellogg Bear Stearns Downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform
Homebuilders
CTX Centex UBS Initiated at Buy
KBH KB Home UBS Initiated at Buy
BZH Beazer Homes UBS Initiated at Sell
DHI DR Horton UBS Initiated at Sell
LEN Lennar UBS Initiated at Sell
PHM Pulte Homes UBS Initiated at Sell
SPF Standard Pacific UBS Initiated at Sell
Industrial Equipment
BGG Briggs & Stratton Robert W. Baird Upgraded from Underperform to Neutral $29
Insurance
MMC Marsh McLennan JP Morgan Downgraded from Overweight to Neutral
Regional Banks
FBC Flagstar Bancorp Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $13 to $11
Rental Services
RNT Aaron Rents Morgan Keegan Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
Restaurants
CAKE Cheesecake Factory Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $32
CKR CKE Restaurants Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $22
JBX Jack In The Box Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $82
TXRH Texas Roadhouse Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $16.50
PFCB PF Chang's Credit Suisse Initiated at Underperform $38
RT Ruby Tuesday Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $30
Retail Trade
FLWS 1-800-FLOWERS CIBC Wrld Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform $14
Semiconductors
BRCM Broadcom JMP Securities Downgraded from Mkt Outperform to Mkt Perform
Telecommunications
ADTN ADTRAN Brean Murray Upgraded from Sell to Hold
PLCM Polycom Kaufman Bros Upgraded from Hold to Buy $34
NOK Morgan Stanley Upgraded
CNSL Consolidated Comms Illinois Oppenheimer Initiated at Buy $24
ARRS Arris Friedman Billings Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform $20 to $15
CCBL C-COR.net Friedman Billings Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform $16 to $13.75
ADTN ADTRAN Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $29 to $25
Transportation
KEX Kirby Corp Cantor Fitzgerald Price Target Raised Buy $51 to $53
ACLI American Commercial Lines Cantor Fitzgerald Downgraded from Buy to Hold $30
PACR Pacer Intl JP Morgan Downgraded from Overweight to Neutral
OCNF Oceanfreight Cantor Fitzgerald Price Target Raised Buy $30 to $31