Thursday Morning, November 15th
Dow Stock News
3M (MMM) said Thursday it'll pay $1.2 billion to buy Aearo Technologies Inc., a private, Indianapolis-based maker of personal protection and energy absorbing products. Aearo, which sells products under the brand names E-A-R, Peltor, AOSafety and SafeWaze, is owned by funds advised by Permira, a leading global private equity firm, and company management. 3M said it would finance the deal through a combination of cash and other borrowings. The acquisition does not change the company's 2007 earnings per share targets since it's not expected to close until the first quarter of 2008, subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions. 3M's financial advisor for the transaction was Lehman Brothers. - MarketWatch
A $5 billion short-term bond fund run by General Electric Co's (GE) asset management unit is offering investors an option to redeem their holdings at 96 cents on the dollar, Barron's Online reported on Wednesday, becoming the latest casualty of turmoil in U.S. mortgage and credit markets. - Reuters
Reuters writes that IBM (IBM) will push into the business of running huge data centers for operations like banks and and retailers.
Ice Man Stocks
Breakouts the Ice Man may consider trading:
CWST - 16
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
DRL - closed at high
Depressed stocks the Ice Man may buy:
IBM - 101.50
Dollar Man Ideas:
ALLI - 7.10, 7.50
Media Commentators
Cramer's Comments:
Bullish: GME, HPQ, GLW
Ice Cold Commentators
Break Man Video Summary:
Break out buy (or short sell) watch list for short term gains November 15 includes: AVP, BG, PRU, XLP, GHL, MYL, NUVA.
Several candidates for break out or short sell plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out (or selling the break down) on good volume and closing at least some on the first day.
Swing Man Market Recap:
The recent volatility continues to impact the financial marketplace. Tuesday night the Asian markets rallied nicely and Europe came in about 0.80% higher. However, our stock index futures were relatively flat until the government released the PPI for October. The core PPI (excludes food and energy) came in flat and caused the futures to surge upward prior to the open. Within the first few minutes the SPX rose 11 points by reaching 1492 which turned out to be the high for the day. After a pullback to 1480 by 11:30, the market again staged a rally but the SPX was unable to exceed its early highs (topped at 1490). The index then spent much of the afternoon range bound between 1480-1488 before finally breaking down below 1480 in the last half hour to close at 1470. At the close the DOW/SPX were off 0.65% while the NDX/NAZ fell 1.20%. Short term momentum, which was overbought Wednesday morning, is now approaching oversold levels once again. Tomorrow economic calendar includes the release of the CPI report, the weekly unemployment report, and the Philly FED.
As you will see in the charts below, several of the major indexes backtested previous support (now resistance) levels during Wednesday´s trading session. In each case, they failed to break above these resistance levels and ended up reversing lower on the day. The first chart below represents the Financials Select Sector (XLF) which is an important group to monitor because of the weight this sector carries in the marketplace. As you can see below, the XLF found support near 30 and bounced up over the past few days before hitting resistance today. This sector was instrumental in yesterday´s advance and was helping to lift the market higher this morning until it ran into horizontal and trendline resistance as shown below. For the market to make any significant upward movement, this sector is going to have to be a player. Therefore, you should continue to monitor price action in this group going forward. In order for things to improve in this group, price will need to break and hold above initial resistance found at $32.34. Until that takes place, this sector is likely to continue to weigh on the market averages. The same is true for all the charts shown below in that price will need to break and hold above various levels of resistance to improve their outlook going forward. For now, all the indexes remain in confirmed downtrends and the fact that there was no follow thru to Tuesday´s big rally suggests it may have been nothing more than an oversold bounce. This may change in the days ahead, but for now the evidence is clear.
I want to point out another thing that everyone should be examining with respect to the major index charts – the action of the fast MACD line. On this recent bounce off the bottom, the daily MACD on every major index has yet to turn up and move higher. In fact, the daily MACD´s on the Nasdaq and NDX charts are still pointing down despite bouncing nearly five percent over the past two days. This type of action in the daily MACD´s suggests little impulsiveness versus the price action and is a reason to be concerned if you´re in the bullish camp. On a brighter note, the 60 minute index charts are portraying a better picture as their MACD´s definitely responded upward in conjunction with this recent bounce. Thus, they will likely display positive divergences on their respective charts on the next move lower. Taken together, this will probably set up another short term trading opportunity but not one that leads us to being overly aggressive on the long side. As a result, we remain somewhat cautious here and recommend that you continue to keep things light for the time being.
Good Trading.
CNBC Fast Money Review
1. THE SELL-OFF RETURNS
The headline: Inflation Numbers Are Tame, But Falling Tech Shares Knock Stocks In Final Hours.
Jeff Macke explained sell the news was the theme of the day led by the financials.
Guy Adami says 1490 has been a huge level in the S&P and it can´t seem to go higher.
2. MILE-HIGH MERGER?
The headline: Delta (DAL) Denies AP Report It Is In Merger Talks With United Airlines Parent UAL (UAUA).
Guy Adami doesn´t understand why consolidation in the airlines would be a good thing. Any rally in the airlines should be sold, he said.
Jeff Macke and Pete Najarian both agreed.
3. OIL BOUNCES BACK
The headline: Crude Oil Rebounds 3.4% To $94.30 After 2-Day Sell-Off
Guy Adami explained the bounce was off tough talk from the Saudi´s. He´s still expecting oil to go lower.
4. ICAHN´S NEW STAKES
The headline: Icahn Reports New Stakes In GENZ and APC
Karen Finerman said he also disclosed a stake in PLCE.
5. INSULATED FROM SUBPRIME
Asset managers may be better insulated from subprime woes than banks, but should you bet on them as financials begin recovering from credit crisis?
Guy Adami said not only are asset mangers better insulated from subprime, but they are also a baby boomer play. In the space he recommended AMG, a firm also upgraded by Wachovia. It´s cheaper on valuation than JNS, he added.
Karen Finerman agreed. She also liked AMP and SCHW.
Pete Najarian recommended keeping an eye on PMI and ABK.
6. POPS AND DROPS
FXI popped 2%: Najarian: The Chinese market has been up over the last week, but it hasn´t been without it´s share of volatility.
WEN dropped 3%: Finerman Peltz´s filing was “pathetic.’ It´s hard to even tell what the investor is offering for the company anymore.
BBI dropped 6%: Macke: This stock is in the gutter at least until the Blu-Ray/HD DVD war is settled. Even then, it´s probably still dead.
TWX dropped 4%: Adami: Bring back Dick Parsons! The bottom should still be $17.
DIS dropped 4%: Macke: Still long DIS, although not exactly sure why anymore.
7. YOUR FIRST MOVE FOR THURSDSAY
Jeff Macke said Don't be surprised if there's a market hangover Thursday, short the Dow with the DOG.
Guy Adami says the NTAP earnings bode well for EMC.
Karen Finerman recommended AEO on a valuation basis.
Pete Najarian is also long EMC.
News and Events Digest
Breaking News
Billionaire Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. has bought nearly 14 million shares of Carmax Inc., the nation's largest specialty used-car retailer, according to a regulatory filing Wednesday.
Berkshire's filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission doesn't say how much the company paid for the shares, which represent about a 6.4 percent stake in Carmax, but they were worth more than $284 million at the end of the quarter on Sept. 30.
Carmax shares gained 13 cents to close at $21.47 Wednesday before the filing was made public. They gained $1.28, or 6 percent, in after-hours trading.
Berkshire again cut its holdings in two railroad companies, Norfolk Southern Corp. and Union Pacific Corp., after months of buying.
Berkshire said it held 4.5 million shares of Union Pacific as of Sept. 30, down from the 7.4 million shares of the Omaha-based railroad that Berkshire held June 30. It's less than half of the 10.5 million shares of the railroad Berkshire held March 31, according to an earlier filing.
Berkshire also said it held 1.9 million shares of Norfolk Southern as of Sept. 30, less than the 3.8 million it owned as of June 30. Earlier this year, Berkshire held nearly 6.4 million shares of Norfolk Southern.
But Buffett's interest in its biggest railroad investment doesn't seem to be waning. An Oct. 5 filing showed he held 60.8 million shares of Burlington Northern Santa Fe Corp. Buffett's company controls 17.2 percent of the nation's second-largest railroad.
Berkshire also now holds 2.7 million shares of Wabco Holdings Inc., a vehicle control systems business spun off of American Standard Cos. Berkshire would have received Wabco shares as part of the spinoff because it owned American Standard shares -- 10.96 million at the end of September.
Meanwhile, Berkshire bought about 3.6 million more shares of Dow Jones & Co., publisher of The Wall Street Journal. Berkshire owned 6.3 million shares of Dow Jones, worth $378.8 million, at the end of the quarter, after a purchase of nearly 2.8 million shares earlier this year before Rupert Murdoch sealed his deal to buy the company.
Berkshire continued adding to banking holdings during the quarter, buying 28.4 million shares of U.S. Bancorp, the parent company of U.S. Bank. Berkshire also bought more than 22 million shares of Wells Fargo & Co., bringing its total to 280 million shares.
Berkshire bought fewer shares -- just 400,000 -- of Bank of America Corp., and maintained its 6.7 million shares of M&T Bank Corp.
Between July 1 and Sept. 30, Berkshire also made several other moves, including:
-- Selling all its nearly 4 million shares in Servicemaster Co., a Downers Grove, Ill.-based lawn-care and pest-control provider. The shares were valued at $61.8 million.
-- Selling all its 6.3 million shares in diversified manufacturer Tyco International Ltd. The shares were valued at $213.2 million.
-- Unloading its last 3.2 million shares of The Western Union Co., which offers money-transfer services through 320,000 agents in more than 200 countries. - AP
Delta formed a committee to study strategic options, including mergers. Hedge fund Pardus Capital called for a merger with UAL. - WSJ
Suntech Power Holdings (STP) on Thursday said third-quarter net income nearly doubled to $53.3 million, or 32 cents a share, from $28.7 million, or 19 cents a share in the year-ago period. On a non-GAAP basis, Suntech group's net income was $61.2 million, or 36 cents a share in the latest period. Revenue more than doubled to $386.7 million from $163 million. Analysts surveyed by Thomson Financial forecast earnings of 28 cents a share and revenue of $355 million, on average. Suntech said it expects 2008 revenue of $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion, compared to the Wall Street target of $1.95 billion. Suntech raised the year-end 2008 photovoltaic cell production capacity target to one gigawatt from 600 megawatts, two years ahead of the previously announced production capacity target. - MarketWatch
Southwestern Energy Co. (SWN) said it agreed to sell its natural gas distribution unit to an affiliate of GE Energy Financial Services and Alinda Investments LLC for $224 million. - Reuters
Ehealth (EHTH) featured positively in the IBD.
JCP - guiding much lower than Analyst expectations.
Standard & Poor's on Thursday cut its long-term rating on Bear Stearns Co. (BSC) by one notch to A as the company is set to report its first ever quarterly loss due to writedowns. - Reuters
Broadcom Corp. said Thursday its board approved the repurchase of up to $1 billion in shares of its common stock.
The chip maker said it plans to use cash on hand to fund the buybacks.
The repurchases may occur from Monday through Dec. 31, 2008.
The new program follows a prior $1 billion buyback that started on Feb. 12 and was completed on Nov. 1. - AP
IMA - priced 12M shares at $61.49
Media Summary
According to Reuters, Barclays (BCS) took a $2.7 billion write-down due to exposure to subprime markets.
Reuters writes that Merriil Lynch (MER) named John Thain as its CEO.
Reuters reports that Cerberus backed away from its purchase of United Rentals because of bad credit markets.
Reuters also reports that OPEC ministers claim that increasing the supply of oil will not help move prices down.
The Wall Street Journal writes that Delta (DAL) formed a committee to look at alternatives including selling the airline. Separately, Pardus Capital pushed for a merger with United (UAUA).
The Wall Street Journal writes that when Starbucks (SBUX) reports earnings today, investors will be looking for a slowdown in traffic.
The Wall Street Journal writes that GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) will add a warning label about heart attack risk to it diabetes drug Avandia.
The Wall Street Journal writes that AMD (AMD) will introduce a powerful new line of PC chips
The Wall Street Journal writes that the head of E*Trade (ETFC) wants it to find a partner or seek a cash infusion.
The Wall Street Journal reports that UAW members approved their new contract with Ford (F).
The Wall Street Journal reports that the cable industry will fight restrictions suggested by the head of the FCC.
The New York Times writes that Warren Buffett told Congress that repealing the estate tax would only benefit a small number of the rich and widen the income gap in the US.
The New York Times writes that Dell (DELL) will offer servers with the Sun (JAVA) Solaris operating system.
The FT writes that outside investors have taken over two collapsed Bear Stearsn (BSC) funds.
The FT reports that Oracle (ORCL) warned BEA Systems (BEAS) that any future bid for the company would be lower than the first one.
CNN Money reports that Sony (SNE) PS3 sales have more than doubled in the US since the company cut the price of the game console.
M&A Activity:
Ralcorp Holdings Inc. (RAH) said on Thursday that it would acquire Kraft Foods Inc's (KFT) Post cereals in an all-stock transaction.
Ralcorp said the deal is valued at $2.6 billion, including the issuance and assumption of debt. - Reuters
Oracle Corp. Chief Executive Larry Ellison told analysts Wednesday that the business software maker is more likely to pursue other takeover targets instead of renewing its recent $6.7 billion bid for rival BEA Systems Inc. - AP
IPO Central:
Energy Solutions (ES), a full-service nuclear fuel cycle company, priced its initial public offering of 30 million shares at $23 a share in a bid to raise $690 million. In a sign of strong demand, the Salt Lake City-based company priced above its proposed $19-$21 range. Credit Suisse, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley acted as joint book-running managers for the IPO. - MarketWatch
Stock Split Announcements:
XTO Energy Inc. (Ticker: XTO) announced that its board of directors approved a 5 for 4 stock split.
BorgWarner Inc. (Ticker: BWA) announced that its board of directors approved a 2 for 1 stock split.
Economic Data:
8:30 CPI
8:30 Initial Claims
8:30 NY Empire State Index
10:30 Crude Inventories
12:00 Philadelphia Fed
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Chinese:
Robert Hsu has gone to a sell on: BIDU, JASO, and SINA;
Advertising
VCLK ValueClick Citigroup Upgraded from Hold to Buy
Biotech
AMGN Amgen Lehman Brothers Upgraded from Equal-weight to Overweight
NSTK Nastech Pharm Rodman & Renshaw Cut Price Target Mkt Outperform $14 to $8
Biotech Software
ABI Applied Bio JP Morgan Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight
Brokerage Services
LEH Lehman Brothers Punk, Ziegel & Co Upgraded from Sell to Mkt Perform
MER Merrill Lynch Credit Suisse Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform
BSC Bear Stearns Punk, Ziegel & Co Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $120 to $109
IVZ InVesco HSBC Securities Downgraded from Neutral to Underweight
Business Services
GFSI Goldleaf Financial Solutions Friedman Billings Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform $5 to $3
Computer Hardware
NTAP Network Appliance Caris & Company Upgraded from Above Average to Buy $37 to $40
NTAP Network Appliance Bear Stearns Upgraded from Underperform to Peer Perform
NTAP Network Appliance Needham & Co Price Target Raised Buy $32 to $34
Computer Services
GIGM GigaMedia Roth Capital Price Target Raised Buy $22 to $25
SINA Sina Citigroup Downgraded from Buy to Hold
PKTR Packeteer Brean Murray Initiated at Sell $6
Computer Software
GVP GSE Systems, Inc. Roth Capital Price Target Raised Buy $8 to $11
LPSN LivePerson Broadpoint Capital Initiated at Buy $7
VRSN VeriSign WR Hambrecht Downgraded from Buy to Hold
Finance Companies
UNCL MRU Holdings Kaufman Bros Price Target Raised Buy $9 to $10
Gold and Silver Mining
GFI Gold Fields BMO Capital Markets Downgraded from Outperform to Market Perform
Healthcare
MYL Mylan Labs Bernstein Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
GPRO Gen-Probe Deutsche Securities Initiated at Buy $78
AHG Apria Healthcare Stanford Research Initiated at Sell $19
Heavy Construction
GLDD Great Lakes Dredge & Dock Lehman Brothers Price Target Raised Equal-weight $10 to $10.50
Industrial Equipment
GWW WW Grainger Morgan Keegan Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
DAKT Daktronics Needham & Co Cut Price Target Buy $34 to $26
Insurance
CNA CNA Financial Credit Suisse Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform $46 to $42
Motor Vehicles
ITT ITT Industries Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $69 to $68
Multi-National Banks
MI Marshall & Ilsley Stifel Nicolaus Cut Price Target Buy $50 to $38
Oil and Gas
HOC Holly Soleil Upgraded from Hold to Buy $85
ENP Encore Energy Lehman Brothers Initiated at Overweight
Paper and Packaging
RYN Rayonier JP Morgan Downgraded from Overweight to Neutral
Personal Services
NVT Navteq Piper Jaffray Downgraded from Outperform to Market Perform
Pharmaceutical
SCRX Sciele Pharma RBC Capital Mkts Upgraded from Underperform to Sector Perform
Recreation
OO Oakley Brean Murray Coverage Dropped
Regional Banks
OAKF Oak Hill Fincl Hilliard Lyons Coverage Dropped
Retail Trade
AMZN Amazon.com Stifel Nicolaus Upgraded from Sell to Buy $91
CHIC Charlotte Russe Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Mkt Perform $15 to $18
HGG HHGregg Lehman Brothers Price Target Raised Overweight $17 to $19
LDG Longs Drug Lehman Brothers Price Target Raised Overweight $60 to $65
Semiconductors
ADI Analog Devices Lehman Brothers Cut Price Target Equal-weight $36 to $34
AMAT Applied Materials Stifel Nicolaus Cut Price Target Buy $27 to $26
Specialty Funds
ARCC Ares Capital Wachovia Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
Telecommunications
CRNT Ceragon Susquehanna Financial Upgraded from Neutral to Positive
PT Portugal Telecom Bear Stearns Upgraded from Peer Perform to Outperform
TMX Telefonos de Mex Citigroup Upgraded from Hold to Buy
TMX Telefonos de Mex UBS Upgraded from Sell to Neutral
WU Western Union First Analysis Sec Upgraded from Underweight to Equal-Weight
JCOM j2 Global Broadpoint Capital Initiated at Buy
PT Portugal Telecom Citigroup Downgraded from Buy to Hold
SWIR Sierra Wireless Piper Jaffray Downgraded from Outperform to Market Perform
Transportation
TNP Tsakos Energy Cantor Fitzgerald Cut Price Target Buy $84 to $42
Utilities
APU AmeriGas Partners Lehman Brothers Price Target Raised Underweight $35.50 to $37.50
CNL CLECO Corp Wachovia Initiated at Outperform
NU Northeast Utilities Wachovia Initiated at Outperform
APU AmeriGas Partners Wachovia Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform
Water Treatment Eq
BWTR Basin Water Roth Capital Cut Price Target Hold $9 to $8