Thursday Morning, October 18th
SITE NEWS
Ice Man Kudos:
I am new to ICE COLD STOCKS.
You people rock.
Thanks,
M.W.
Hidden Treasure News:
Dr. Christopher Tirotta, CEO of American Scientific Resources, Inc., today announced that Walgreens drug store is the exclusive retailer of Kidz-Med Thermofocus(R) non-contact thermometers. American Scientific Resources, Inc. (ASFX) is the holding company for the wholly owned subsidiaries Kidz-Med, Inc. and Heart Smart, Inc.
Thermofocus(R) thermometers will arrive in all of Walgreens' more than 6,000 stores in 48 states and Puerto Rico this week. The Thermofocus(R) will also be featured in Walgreens' advertising circulars.
"We're delighted that Walgreens stores will be carrying our Kidz-Med Thermofocus(R) thermometers," stated Dr. Tirotta. "Kidz-Med, Inc. has the exclusive right to distribute Thermofocus(R) in the U.S. and, with more than 6,000 stores nationwide, Walgreens will provide broad exposure for Thermofocus(R). The Walgreens order is a powerful validation of the value of this ingenious new device to the American consumer."
The revolutionary Thermofocus(R) non-contact clinical thermometer uses a completely safe and advanced infrared technology to take a trauma-free temperature reading in a second without ever touching a child or patient. Thermofocus(R), which is as accurate as a rectal thermometer, gives readings of core body temperature, babies' bottle, bath water, food and nursery room temperatures all with one device and in an instant.
About American Scientific Resources, Inc.
American Scientific Resources is a leader in providing next-generation medical products and healthcare supplements sourced from around the globe. Products are distributed primarily through leading retail drug chains, nationwide medical suppliers, infomercials, and on-line sites. The company is comprised of two core operating subsidiaries: Kidz-Med, Inc. distributes a leading line of medical and medicine delivery devices for children and sensitive adults; Heart Smart System, Inc. is a line of patented nutraceutical supplements developed for the prevention of cardiovascular disease. Additional information about American Scientific may be found at www.americansci.com. Investor data may be obtained at www.StockBroadcasting.com/featured/ASFX/.
Dow Stock News
Pfizer Inc. (PFE) said on Thursday that third-quarter earnings fell sharply, hurt by a $2.8 billion charge to end its investment in its poorly selling Exubera inhaled insulin drug.
Results were also hurt by declining sales of cholesterol fighter Lipitor and generic competition for many of Pfizer's other medicines. - Reuters
Accoriding to Reuters, Sony (SNE) will launch a cheaper version of its PS3 in the US in hopes of taking market share from Microsoft (MSFT) and Nintendo.
The Wall Stree Journal writes that new data show HP (HPQ) widening its unit sales lead over Dell (DELL)
The FT writes that results at JP Morgan (JPM) indicate that the bank avoided many of the mistakes made by other financial institutions during the credit crisis.
T AT&T Bernstein Initiated at Mkt Perform
VZ Verizon Bernstein Initiated at Mkt Perform
Ice Man Stocks
Breakouts the Ice Man may consider trading:
SMSC - 39.75
SGY - 42
DGIT - 25.50
ANAD - 19.30
MTE - 8.60
GLDN - 92
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
BT - 64.50
TER - 13.90
AMAT - 22
CAI - 52.50
UNP - 120
Depressed stocks the Ice Man may buy:
AU - 41.40 G
QXM - 11.80 G
Dollar Man Ideas:
CYRX - 1.25
JDO - Closed Well
Depressed Dollar:
CTEL
Media Commentators
Cramer's Comments:
Bullish: EBAY, PRGN, DSX, UA, LULU
Ice Cold Commentators
Break Man Video Summary:
Break out buy (or short sell) watch list for short term gains October 18 includes: CCU, CFC, UBSI, XHB, AUDC, LEN, STLD, MU.
Several candidates for break out or short sell plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out (or selling the break down) on good volume and closing at least some on the first day.
Swing Man Market Recap:
Extremely volatile trading session Wednesday as the most indices opened strongly to the upside then sold off mid day before staging a late day rally. As expected, the market gapped up at the open on the back of strong earnings from INTC and YHOO last evening. Within the first few minutes of trading the SPX reached its intraday high at 1551 where sellers stepped up to the plate. Steady selling prevailed throughout the day until the Fed released the Beige Book around 2:00. The Beige Book showed weakness which boosted trader´s hopes of additional rate cuts. Subsequently, the market began to rally and buying continued until the closing bell. For the day, the SPX rose nearly 3 points while the Dow lost 20 points. The real gains came from the tech laden NDX and Nasdaq which both climbed 28 points. We have been talking about the possibility of choppy trading and needless to say we certainly experienced that Wed.
Wednesday, I cautioned everyone about chasing stocks at the open since the market was sending us some mixed signals. This turned out to be good advice as all the major indices made their highs within the first few minutes of trading. I also mentioned the potential for additional selling which occurred intraday as the Dow showed losses of nearly 140 points intraday. However, on the push down some of the intraday charts began to display some positive divergence which (along with the Beige Book news) gave the market participants a reason to buy stocks.
Wednesday, I suggested that we monitor how the MACD on the 60 minute charts responds during the trading day to see if some positive divergence may develop. Well, on the move lower mid day several indexes formed some mild bullish divergence on their intraday charts. Additionally, the often highlighted Nasdaq gap support at 2749 held as buyers showed up just above this level today while the SPX put in a nice reversal after bouncing off support around the 1530 level.
So where does Wednesday´s trading leave us? Short term some of the intraday charts appear to be setting up for another probe higher with the NDX and Nasdaq 60 minute charts having formed some mild bullish divergence above their gap support areas. Specifically, the NDX and Nasdaq 60 minute charts looked to have formed a falling wedge pattern accompanied by bullish divergence. This setup is viewed as a continuation pattern and typically moves in the direction of the primary trend which is up. So let´s watch to see which way this pattern resolves tomorrow. A break and hold above 2800 being viewed as bullish near term whereas a break and hold below the 2750 area being viewed near term bearish. Volatility is picking up and trading is becoming somewhat loose so please be prepared for some whipsaw.
Although many of the intraday charts appear to be setting up for another upside push over the near term, I think it´s unlikely that the market will be able to sustain another breakout without further consolidation. The reason the market will have trouble sustaining a further advance is due to the sentiment indicators that are currently registering a high degree of complacency among market participants. Thus, I suggest keeping things fairly light in this type of environment and continue to focus on buying the best patterns preferably near support. Lastly, remember its earnings season which is apt to add to the volatility.
Good Trading.
CNBC Fast Money Review
1. EBAY PULLING BACK AFTER HOURS
The headline: EBAY CFO: Rapid Growth Of Low Margin Business Will Hurt ´08 Margins.
Macke recommends letting the after hours buying settle a little, then he says the stock is a buy.
Najarian thinks there´s more upside in this stock.
Adami thinks the trade is UPS. If sales are relatively strong in online retail, he thinks it stands to reason UPS will do well, too.
2. HOUSE OF BLUES
The headline: WM CEO Sees No End To Housing Slump
Finerman says she´s not surprised the last quarter was bad for WM, but she´s concerned that the next quarter could be worse.
Najarian suggests the market digested the numbers in financals too quickly and he expects adjustments.
Macke feels housing will continue to be a train wreck for the financials, however he´s bullish on other sectors.
3. TECH
The headline: INTC, YHOO Surge on Earnings, Overcoming More Housing Woes.
Finerman is concerned that despite strength in tech, the overall trend is toward bad news and tougher times in
´08.
Macke says bad news can be good. He feels weakness could mean another rate cut.
Adami thinks CEOs feel as if they have a window of opportunity right now to lower Street expectations.
4. CHINA
The headline: China ETF (FXI), PetroChina (PTR), China Mobile (CHL), China Life (LFC) All Surging Wednesday.
Tim Seymour says there´s speculation that the Shanghai and Hong Kong markets could merge and consequently companies that trade in Shanghai are trading at a premium.
Seymour emphasizes that it´s only speculation. Any investor who buys these stocks should also take out put protection.
On a related note,
Dylan Ratigan says India shares plunged 10%, overall.
Seymour explains the government of India is very concerned about currency flow and India is looking to limit the amount of foreign capital coming in. As a result, the India ADRs that trade in New York are taking a hit.
5. GOOGLE EARNINGS THURSDAY
The world's most popular stock is up more than 30% this year and reports earnings Thursday. What´s the GOOG
breakdown?
Najarian says that recent options trading suggest to him that Google is going higher. Najarian adds if Google comes out with a G-phone he expects the stock to skyrocket.
Adami expects to see a $1,000 price target soon.
Macke is skeptical. He thinks Google is a sell if/when the company goes into hardware.
Finerman can´t get behind the stock because the valuation is extremely high.
6. PFIZER EARNINGS THURSDAY
The big drug complex including PFE, LLY, and WYE are all under fire from generics and they all reporting earnings Thursday. How should you trade?
Adami says he´s bullish on PFE on a valuation basis. “It´s just cheap,’ he says, "and I
like their dividend."
Najarian believes BIIB, GENZ, ISIS and GILD are all buys as possible takeover targets.
7. POPS AND DROPS
MAN popped 7%: Adami thinks Manpower looks cheap at these levels.
NOK popped 4%: Najarian likes this
stock.
COH popped 3%: Finerman thinks there´s some value in retail.
CSX popped 6%: Adami likes this stock.
NVDA popped 8%: Macke recommends riding this stock.
CVC dropped 3%: Najarian expects the stock to drop,
further.
8. YOUR FIRST MOVE FOR THURSDAY
Macke recommends EBAY.
Adami says the play is shorting XOM because the stock is up 35% YTD.
Finerman takes the other side of Adami´s trade and recommends getting long
COP.
Najarian likes ESLR as an alternative energy play.
News and Events Digest
Breaking News
Bank of America Corp.'s (BAC) third-quarter earnings slid 32% to $3.7 billion, or 82 cents a share, from $5.42 billion, or $1.18 a share, a year earlier, hurt in part by a decline in global corporate and investment banking revenue. The Charlotte, N.C., commercial bank's net interest income rose to $8.62 billion from $8.59 billion, while its provision for credit losses increased to $2.03 billion from $1.17 billion a year ago. Total average assets at Sept. 30 rose to $1.58 trillion from $1.5 trillion at Sept. 30, 2006. - MarketWatch
Shares of Nokia Corp. rose 5% on Thursday after the world's largest maker of mobile phones posted an 85% jump in third-quarter profit as margins surged at its mobile-device business and it continued to gain market share.
Net income improved to 1.56 billion euros ($2.2 billion), or 0.40 euros a share, from 845 million euros, or 0.21 euros a share, a year earlier, topping the average forecast for profit of 1.31 billion euros of seven analysts polled by Dow Jones Newswires. - MarketWatch
Media Summary:
Reuters writes that British Air (BAB) may be consideriga merger with American Air (AMR) to create a Trans Atlantic super-carrier.
Reuters also writes that VW will offer more aggressive pricing in the US as it tries to take more share.
Reuters reports that News Corop (NWS) will open up the software of MySpace to more developers in a move to counter similar options at rival Facebook.
Reuters writes that the SEC has opened a probe of the trading activities of the CEO at Countrywide (CFC).
Reuters also reports that Ebay (EBAY) showed improved auction volume but took a large write-down on Skype.
The Wall Street Journal wirites that Sony (SNE) is sxpected to sell its advanced chip business to Toshiba.
The Wall Street Journal writes that Apple (AAPL) will open its iPhone to third party developers.
The Wall Street Journal also writes that SAP (SAP) earnings ose 10%.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Boston Scientific (BSX) cut jobs due to softness in sales.
The Wall Street Journal also reports that Morgan Stanley (MS) sold its huge stake in The New York Times (NYT).
The New York Times writes that a writer's strike could badly hurt the TV industry
Barron's writes that The Wall Street Journal will increase its national and international news coverage.
M&A Activity:
Swiss Galenica Holding AGsaid Thursday it plans to make an offer to acquire Canada's Aspreva Pharmaceuticals Corp. (ASPV)
Galenica is offering $26 per share, which corresponds to a premium for Aspreva shareholders of 34% compared to the volume-weighted average share price over the last 90 days. The total value of the offer amounts to $915 million. - MarketWatch
Economic Data:
8:30 Initial Claims
10:00 Leading Indicators
12:00 Philadelphia Fed
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Advertising
CCO Clear Channel Outdoor Bear Stearns Downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform
LAMR Lamar Advertising Bear Stearns Downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform
Brokerage Services
ETFC E*TRADE Deutsche Securities Downgraded from Buy to Hold
ETFC E*TRADE Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Outperform $22 to $17
Business Services
RX IMS Health Robert W. Baird Downgraded from Outperform to Underperform $37 to $24
RX IMS Health Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $33 to $27
Chemicals
NLC Nalco UBS Downgraded from Neutral to Sell
Computer Hardware
BCSI Blue Coat WR Hambrecht Price Target Raised Buy $45 to $60
Computer Services
UEPS Net 1 UEPS Techs JP Morgan Downgraded from Overweight to Neutral
Computer Software
CRYP CryptoLogic Roth Capital Upgraded from Hold to Buy $23 to $27
CTXS Citrix Systems Stifel Nicolaus Price Target Raised Buy $45 to $48
CTXS Citrix Systems CIBC Wrld Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Outperform $41 to $46
CTXS Citrix Systems Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Mkt Perform $36 to $42
DRIV Digital River Jefferies & Co Price Target Raised Hold $44 to $51
CTXS Citrix Systems MKM Partners Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
CTXS Citrix Systems Needham & Co Downgraded from Buy to Hold
THQI THQ Inc Nollenberger Capital Cut Price Target Buy $42 to $33
Construction
BECN Beacon Roofing Supply CIBC Wrld Mkts Downgraded from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform
BXC Bluelinx CIBC Wrld Mkts Downgraded from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform
CX CEMEX S.A. Credit Suisse Downgraded from Outperform to Neutral $43 to $39
Finance Companies
BR Broadridge Financial Oppenheimer Initiated at Buy $28
Consumer Services
MGI MoneyGram Calyon Securities Cut Price Target Neutral $26 to $25
Gaming Operations
WMS WMS Industries Stifel Nicolaus Price Target Raised Buy $35 to $40
MPEL Melco PBL Entertainment Jefferies & Co Initiated at Buy $21
Healthcare
CBST Cubist Pharma Stifel Nicolaus Price Target Raised Buy $26 to $29
HWAY Healthways Jefferies & Co Price Target Raised Buy $60 to $70
MOGN MGI Pharma Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Outperform $34 to $37
CHTT Chattem Jefferies & Co Initiated at Buy $90
MOGN MGI Pharma Brean Murray Downgraded from Buy to Hold
QLTI QLT Inc Caris & Company Cut Price Target Average $8.25 to $7
LHCG LHC Group Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $26
Homebuilders
CHB Champion Oppenheimer Price Target Raised Buy $13 to $15
BLG Building Materials CIBC Wrld Mkts Downgraded from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform
Household Goods
LBY Libbey Jefferies & Co Initiated at Buy $27
Industrial Equipment
ITW Illinois Tool Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Outperform $66 to $67
Insurance
FSR Flagstone Reinsurance Citigroup Downgraded from Buy to Hold
PTP Platinum Underwriters Citigroup Downgraded from Buy to Hold
RE Everest Re Citigroup Downgraded from Buy to Hold
RNR RenaissanceRe Citigroup Downgraded from Hold to Sell
GFSI Goldleaf Financial Solutions Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Outperform $7.50 to $5
MTG MGIC Investment Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $35 to $27
Manufacturing - Tires
GT Goodyear Tire Calyon Securities Initiated at Buy $40
Motor Vehicles
LEA Lear Calyon Securities Initiated at Add $42
GNTX Gentex Calyon Securities Initiated at Reduce $17
MGA Magna Calyon Securities Initiated at Reduce $83
Oil and Gas
ATPG ATP Oil & Gas Friedman Billings Initiated at Outperform $65
EROC Eagle Rock Energy JP Morgan Initiated at Overweight
MWE MarkWest Energy JP Morgan Initiated at Overweight
CRZO Carrizo Oil & Gas Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Downgraded from Buy to Neutral $50
Personal Services
BFAM Bright Horiz Family BMO Capital Markets Downgraded from Outperform to Market Perform
Publishing
SSP EW Scripps Bear Stearns Downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform
Recreation
MAT Mattel Credit Suisse Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform
Regional Banks
SBCF Seacoast Banking Stifel Nicolaus Upgraded from Sell to Hold
MBTF MBT Financial FTN Midwest Downgraded from Neutral to Sell
WM Washington Mutual Friedman Billings Downgraded from Mkt Perform to Underperform $35 to $23
CMA Comerica Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Outperform $68 to $55
VM Virgin Mobile USA Stanford Research Initiated at Sell
REITs
ANH Anworth Mortgage JMP Securities Upgraded from Mkt Outperform to Strong Buy $7.50 to $8
GKK Gramercy Capital Stifel Nicolaus Upgraded from Hold to Buy $30
TMA Thornburg Mortg Keefe Bruyette Upgraded from Underperform to Mkt Perform
GKK Gramercy Capital UBS Initiated at Buy
HME Home Prop of NY UBS Initiated at Buy
PPS Post Properties UBS Initiated at Sell
WRI Weingarten Realty UBS Initiated at Sell
Restaurants
GRIL Grill Concepts Oppenheimer Initiated at Buy $9
Retail Trade
EBAY eBay Stifel Nicolaus Price Target Raised Buy $44 to $46
EBAY eBay Deutsche Securities Downgraded from Hold to Sell $33
Savings & Loan
DSL Downey Fincl Friedman Billings Downgraded from Mkt Perform to Underperform $60 to $40
Security Systems
LOJN LoJack JP Morgan Downgraded from Neutral to Underweight
Semiconductors
CAVM Cavium Networks JMP Securities Price Target Raised Strong Buy $30 to $35
ISIL Intersil Stifel Nicolaus Price Target Raised Buy $37 to $39
Telecommunications
CBEY Cbeyond Comms Merriman Curhan Ford Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
OCNW Occam Networks Merriman Curhan Ford Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
Transpo - Tankers
NM Navios Maritime Cantor Fitzgerald Price Target Raised Buy $17 to $18
Transportation
EGLE Eagle Bulk Shipping Cantor Fitzgerald Price Target Raised Buy $32 to $38
EXM Excel Maritime Carriers Cantor Fitzgerald Price Target Raised Buy $68 to $84
GNK Genco Shipping & Trading Cantor Fitzgerald Price Target Raised Buy $75 to $86
EGLE Eagle Bulk Shipping UBS Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
KNX Knight Transportation Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
KNX Knight Transportation Wachovia Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform
Transpos -Shipping
PRGN Paragon Shipping Cantor Fitzgerald Price Target Raised Buy $28 to $32
OCNF Oceanfreight Cantor Fitzgerald Price Target Raised Buy $31 to $35
Utilities
EOC Empresa Ncnl Elec Bear Stearns Upgraded from Peer Perform to Outperform