Monday Morning, June 11th
Site
News
:
New IceMD Recording: Parkinson's Disease-Possible Exciting Breakthrough;
Dow Stock
News
:
General Electric and Microsoft discussed joining forces for a competing bid for Dow Jones & Co. in recent weeks, but the idea was abandoned, the Wall Street Journal reported on Monday.
The Wall Street Journal also reports that Disney (DIS) is in a joint venture with India's Yash Raj Films to created animated films for the fast growing market.
Boeing is trading +0.2% higher in European trading this morning after news that the company won a $3 billion order for 22 Dreamliners from Aeroflot.
Johnson & Johnson is up 2.2% in European trading this morning after Credit Suisse raised its rating on the stock to "neutral" from "underperform."
Breakouts the Ice Man may trade:
MKSI - 27.50 warning 28 breakout
BWA - 85
LXU - 21.50 warning 22 breakout
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider
AKS - 36
CELL - 14
CVH - 60.50
CY - 22
MSCC - 24
XPRT - 15.40
OSIR - 13
Depressed Stocks the Ice Man may buy or short to the gap:
HDY - 2.50 Gap
QCOM - 40.20 Gap
Dollar Man Ideas:
FBR - 6.70
VWPT - 1.30
TELK - 4.05 Bid
VG - 3.15
Cramer's Comments:
Bullish: LEH, BSC, GS, GILD, HOLX, MHS, CSCO, LVLT, CIEN, CBI, ATI;
Gorilla Trades:
New Potential Buys:
China Life Insurance (LFC): ABOVE $47.73 with a $52 first target, a $60 second target, and a $43.50 stop loss. Confirmation Volume Area = 1.3M Risk Rating = 3
Special Situation Picks:
Methode Electronics (METH)
Break Man Video Summary:
Break out buy watch list for short term gains June 11 includes: XPRT, PACT, FBR, NOVC, DXCM, BCRX, AMCC, VWPT.
Several candidates for break out or pullback plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out on good volume and selling at least some on the first day.
http://stocktiger.com
Swing Man Market Recap:
Last week the market experienced its biggest one week decline since the beginning of March 2007.
The Dow dropped 440 points of its highs or about 1.8%
The S&P 500 dropped about 50 points off its highs or about 1.9%
The Nasdaq dropped about 85 points or 1.5%
The Russell 2000 fell 33 points or 2.1%
However, the SOX or semiconductor index really stood out as it only last 0.3% for the week, although much of this gain was due to the big rally in NSM.
Out of the other major sectors, the Transports took a large hit and lost almost 3.9%, while the Biotech sector shed over 4.3%!
Commodities and their corresponding stocks took a hit across the board, however the commodity stocks generally favored better than the commodities themselves, except for precious metal stocks, which under performed relative to gold.
As I have been stating for a while now, technically the market appeared to be nearing completion of a major 5-wave uptrend. Once the major 5-wave uptrend is complete, then the market will likely experience a very strong correction. Itxs possible that the market top has already been put in, however it is not entirely confirmed yet, but this week could be a crucial week.
However, fundamentally the reason for the market drop was the big rally in long term interest rates and the subsequent big drop of the 30 year bond.
30 year bond chart
http://tinyurl.com/278jom
The chart of the S&P 500 looks basically identical to the Dow. However, note that the S&P rallied exactly off the 50 day MA on Friday. Again, Ixm going to keep an eye on the 20 day MA this week to see if it is retested on a back-test and confirmed as resistance.
The S&P 500 also managed to retrace about 38.2% of the recent pullback on Friday.
S&P 500 chart
http://tinyurl.com/ynk7he
The small cap heavy Russell 2000 index, found support exactly at the uptrend line last week. Until this uptrend line support is lost, then the uptrend remains intact. Therefore keep an eye in the uptrend line and the 50 day moving average, which also appears to be key. TWM is the double inverse ETF to the Russell 2000.
Russell 2000 chart:
http://tinyurl.com/26wxqg
Gold stocks had a HORRIBLE week to say the least, and lost almost 5% for the week.
The HUI broke a downtrend line over a week ago, which looked bullish, however it has retraced all the way back to retest the trendline. On the positive side, the candlestick tested the broken trendline, which held as support. Also, the hammer candlestick on Friday is typical of a reversal pattern. GDX is the ETF to this sectonr. Also, GFI, CDE, ABX, GG, MDG stand out.
HUI Daily Chart
http://tinyurl.com/2a9ejs
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CNBC Fast Money Review:
1. Word on the Street
Sweet, Sweet Crude
Bolling: Drop in oil because cyclone in Middle East didn't disrupt flow.
Stay with GOOG, AAPL, RIMM.
Adami: Expect volitility.
Strong Plays for a Strong Dollar
Hunter: Buy SNE, TM on weakening yen trade.
Seymour: Dollar head fake. Sell dollar, buy emerging market currencies.
Mixed Shopping Bag
Macke: Likes JOSB.
Feeling Chipper
Najarian: NSM up 14%.
Adami: Likes NVDA.
Surge of Steel
Adami: Take profits on X.
Najarian: Look at RYI, MTL.
Losing Luster
Adami: Never liked gold, but likes FCX.
Seymour: Bearing on dollar, buy gold.
2. The Top 3
All's Well That Ends Well
Seymour: Buy OGZPY. Buy emerging markets.
Macke: Get long Russia.
Najarian: Major concerns with Putin.
Show Me The Money
Najarian: Buy brokers Monday morning. M&A on fire, retail biz taking off.
Adami: Don't like LEH, but likes BSC, GS.
Macke: BSC is best trading opportunity. Subprime slime already factored in.
Netflix in Flux
Najarian: Take profits on NFLX calls.
Macke: Stay away from NFLX.
3. Fast Fire
GILD - Down since 5/11 Adami buy call.
Adami: Still likes stock, buy on dip.
CLF - Down 6% since 5/31 Najarian buy call.
Najarian: Stay long and buy puts as protection.
PALM - Up 2% since 5/31 Macke sell call.
Macke: Sell and stay away.
4. Quicker than the Ticker
SKS - Up 5% since 6/1 Macke buy call.
JCI - Up 16% since 5/4 Adami buy call.
CELG - Down since 5/31 Najarian sell call.
5. Final Trade
Seymour: MBT is a buy, EEM is a sell.
Najarian: MS is a buy.
Adami: TIVO is a buy.
Macke: "Wild & Crazy Guy" will win Belmont Stakes.
___________________
Breaking
News
:
According to Reuters, a hedge fund has taken a position in Barclays (BCS) and its urging it to drop its bid for ABN Amro.
Reuters writes that private firm Alchemy is lining up $5.9 in an attempt to buy Land Rover and Jaguar from Ford (F).
Reuters reports the Iran's oil minister says there is no shortage of oil and that OPEC will not raise output.
The Wall Street Journal also writes that Google (GOOG) complained to antitrust officials that Microsoft's operating system puts rivals at a disadvantage.
The New York Times reports that "Sony Online intends to unveil its plan to retake leadership in online gaming by unveiling three new games in development."
FT reports that Hollywood studios are in talkw with Apple (AAPL) about starting a video rental service.
Barron's reports that Credit Suisse has rated Nortel (NT) underperform
Limited Brands Inc. (LTD) shares, which now trade around $26, should move into the $30s in a year or so, once the retailer finishes its restructuring, the financial newspaper Barron's said
M&A Activity:
Back Yard Burgers Inc. (BYBI) said that it has agreed to be bought by BBAC, an investment partnership managed by Cherokee Advisors, for $38 million including debt. Back Yard Burgers shareholders will receive $6.50 a share in cash, which the restaurant group said represents a 29% premium above its closing price of $5.05 per share on June 8. The transaction is expected to be completed in the third quarter. - MarketWatch
Wabtec Corp. (WAB) said Monday that it has acquired Ricon Corp., which manufactures wheelchair lifts and ramps for buses, for $73.5 million in cash including debt repayment. Wabtec said the acquisition complements its Vapor Bus division, which provides components and assemblies for door operating systems. - MarketWatch
IBM (IBM) said Monday it'll pay $745 million to buy Telelogic AB, which is traded on the Nordic Exchange, at a price of 21 Swedish Kronor a share, for an aggregate purchase price of approximately 5.2 billion Swedish Kronor, or approximately $745 million. Telelogic is a provider of software with more than 1,100 employees and operations in 22 countries worldwide. - MarketWatch
Peru Copper Inc. (CUP) said Monday it agreed to a buyout offer of C$840 million from Aluminum Corporation of China. The deal is being described as a friendly take-over bid at C$6.60 a share in cash. The offer represents a premium of 21% to Peru Copper's 20-day volume weighted average trading price of $5.45 on the Toronto Stock Exchange. - MarketWatch
CNX Gas Corp. (CXG) said Monday it would acquire coal bed methan and gas interests from Peabody Energy in a three-part transaction with Consol Energy Inc. (CNX) . CNX Gas will first acquire assets from Consol Energy Inc. for $45 million cash, plus a future payment which has an estimated present value of approximately $6.5 million. CNX Gas will then convey those coal assets plus $15 million cash to Peabody Energy in exchange for Peabody Energy's coal bed methane and gas rights to approximately 1 million acres, including 654,000 acres in the Illinois Basin, 153,000 acres in Northern Appalachia, 171,000 acres in the San Juan Basin, 47,000 acres in the Powder River Basin, and 11,000 acres in the Rockies. The transaction is expected to close before the end of the second quarter. - MarketWatch
IPO Central:
IPO’s on Schedule for week of 6/11/2007:
Aegerion Pharmaceuticals (AEGR). The Company Develops small-molecule therapeutics to treat cardiovascular and metabolic disease. The company is selling 5M shares at the initial range between $12-$14. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $0M and Net Income of $(-6)M. The Lead Managers are Lehman Brothers and CIBC. Aegerion Pharmaceuticals (AEGR) is headquartered in Bridgewater, NJ and their website is www.aegerion.com.
BioFuel Energy (BIOF). The Company is building three plants to produce ethanol for Cargill. The company is selling 9.5M shares at the initial range between $16-$18. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $ N/A M and Net Income of $ N/A M. The Lead Managers are J.P. Morgan, Citigroup, and A.G. Edwards. BioFuel Energy (BIOF) is headquartered in Denver, CO and their website is www.bfenergy.com.
BWAY Holding Company (BWY). The Company makes containers in metal (e.g. paint cans) and plastic (e.g. pails, paint bottles). The company is selling 11.8M shares at the initial range between $16-$18. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $ 969 M and Net Income of $ 5 M. The Lead Managers are Goldman Sachs and Bank of America. BWAY Holding Company (BWY) is headquartered in Atlanta, GA and their website is www.bwaycorp.com.
GeoVera Insurance (GEOV). The Company provides specialty residential property insurance mainly in CA and FL. The company is selling 5.9M shares at the initial range between $16-$18. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $ 175 M and Net Income of $ 36 M. The Lead Managers are J.P. Morgan and Merrill Lynch. GeoVera Insurance (GEOV) is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda and their website is www.geovera.com.
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Airlines - Passenger
AAI Air Tran Holdings Calyon Securities Downgraded from Add to Neutral $13 to $12
UAUA UAL Corp. Calyon Securities Downgraded from Buy to Add $59 to $38
Apparel
CBUK Cutter & Buck McAdams,Wright,Ragen Coverage Dropped
Audio-Video Equipmnt
UEIC Univ Elec WR Hambrecht Upgraded from Hold to Buy
Beverages
BF.A Brown-Forman JP Morgan Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight
Brokerage Services
ICE IntercontinentalExchnge Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $175
BOT CBOT Holdings Credit Suisse Downgraded from Outperform to Neutral
MKTX Marketaxess Credit Suisse Downgraded from Neutral to Underperform
Business Services
BE BearingPoint Jefferies & Co Downgraded from Hold to Underperform $8 to $5.50
Chemicals-Methanol
MEOH Methanex UBS Downgraded from Neutral to Reduce $24 to $25
Computer Hardware
IM Ingram Micro Citigroup Upgraded from Hold to Buy
WDC Western Digital UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
Computer Services
CKFR CheckFree Matrix Research Downgraded from Buy to Hold
KEA Keane KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Coverage Dropped
Computer Software
SPSS SPSS Inc Banc of America Sec Price Target Raised Buy $43 to $50
Defense
SAI Science Applications International Cowen & Co Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform
Finance Companies
WAL Western Alliance Bancorp RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Perform $35 to $34
Foods
CPB Campbell Soup Matrix Research Upgraded from Hold to Buy
Gaming Operations
PENN Penn Natl Gaming Morgan Joseph Downgraded from Buy to Hold
WYNN Wynn Resorts CIBC Wrld Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Underperform $90 to $89
Healthcare Equipment
VAR Varian Medical CIBC Wrld Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform $51
ARAY Accuray CIBC Wrld Mkts Initiated at Sector Underperform $19
Healthcare Facilities
NOVA Novamed RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Outperform $8.50 to $8
Heavy Machinery
IR Ingersoll-Rand UBS Price Target Raised Neutral $48 to $52
Insurance
AGP Amerigroup Jefferies & Co Upgraded from Underperform to Hold $25 to $27
CPS ChoicePoint JMP Securities Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Mkt Outperform $47
KFS Kingsway Fin CIBC Wrld Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform
Mining Non-Ferr Metal
CAS A.M. Castle KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Initiated at Buy $45
Motion Pictures
NFLX Netflix JP Morgan Downgraded from Neutral to Underweight
Paper and Packaging
RKT Rock-Tenn Credit Suisse Upgraded from Underperform to Neutral $34
Personal Services
HRB H & R Block UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
Pharmaceutical
VRUS Pharmasset UBS Initiated at Buy
Real Estate
AFR American Financial Realty Trust Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
BPO Brookfield Pptys Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
NRF Northstar Realty Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
Recreational Vehicles
HOG Harley-Davidson UBS Cut Price Target Neutral $69 to $67
Regional Banks
WB Wachovia Friedman Billings Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform $62
WABC Westamerica Banc RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Perform $51 to $49
REITs
AMB AMB Property Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
BRT BRT Realty Trust Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
BXP Boston Prpts Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
CDR Cedar Shopping Centers Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
CT Capital Trust Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
HIW Highwoods Prop Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
KIM Kimco Realty Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
KRG Kite Realty Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
NCT Newcastle Investment Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
PLD ProLogis Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
QRR Quadra Realty Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
RPT Ramco-Gershenson Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
SFI iStar Financial Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
SKT Tanger Factory Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
SLG SL Green Rlty Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
SPG Simon Properties Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
WRE Washington REIT Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
WRI Weingarten Realty Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
Retail Trade
TA TravelCenters of America BWS Financial Initiated at Buy $70
URBN URBN - DBAB made positive comments on Positive Comments
NKE Nike HSBC Securities Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight $52.50 to $64
Semiconductors
TQNT TQNT - Piper likes and believes this is a good entry point Likes
CAVM Cavium Networks JMP Securities Initiated at Strong Buy $25
CAVM Cavium Networks Deutsche Securities Initiated at Buy $26
Telecommunications
FDRY Foundry Ntwks RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Outperform $18 to $20
SBAC SBA Comm Stanford Research Price Target Raised Buy $34 to $44
FDRY Foundry Ntwks Janco Partners Initiated at Buy $19.50
PCS MetroPCS Citigroup Initiated at Buy $40
Tobacco
UST UST Inc UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
Transportation
OMM OMI Corp Cantor Fitzgerald Coverage Dropped
Utilities
RRI Reliant Energy RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Outperform $27 to $32
DQE Duquesne Light KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Coverage Dropped
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Ideas from other sites:
JERRY OLSON'S
"POINT" OF VIEW NEWSLETTER
DATED JUNE 10TH 2007
WE HAVE A LOW CAN IT HOLD?
Hello out there all my cyber trading buddies from around the world. I hope this letter finds you and yours in good health and fine spirits. Gee whiz it's hot here in Phila and humid too, the shore is calling me folks, "come on down"!
We have a low everyone, and that low from last week is "obviously" is our line in the sand. There was a beautiful bounce off the 50 day moving average last week on most index charts we know and love. The main indexes held that line for now. The bounce on Friday was from deeply oversold levels on the McClellan oscillator that reached -268 on the ES & Djia charts on Thursday. Now here's a couple of scenario's that should be playing out this week for sure. I would think we still have another day of up to contend with before they push it over and down again to A) retest that low and hold, B) break that low and head toward the 200 ema on the daily charts, or C) not re test and move much higher very fast in a countertrend buying spree in the next 2 days or so. The markets in my opinion are now entering a time of flux. Volatility will be ramping up as we move thru the FOMC meeting on the 27th & 28th. Interest rates have going bonkers over the last release of the FOMC minutes. I know you have not really thought about that date. But check the charts check the release date and then look to see what happened.
The entire street has one good eyeball on rates, the other on bonds. It's funny folks but I am a bond bull, ok so I'm a bull anyway. But I think all this craziness by the bonds latest movements is all going to unwind in the direct opposite direction and soon. The yields are very overbought and the September T-Bond Futures the US-U7 is diabolically oversold like you could not believe. Here's the chart of the T-Bonds
http://www.buyitbuyitsellitsellit.com/OJ1.gif
. Now if I am right and bonds start to rally soon yields again will begin to fall and stocks will start to rally up higher as well. So far the bonds are leading the markets around by the nose. Well that's about to change for the good folks, and I like the markets to rally up in a surprise move shortly. Now look we're in Options Expiration Week, so it's going to be fun and games right? They already killed all the "calls" for this month as they slammed the markets last week. Hmmm think they'll try to kill all the "put buyers" this week? It certainly worth a shot to watch and see how this unfolds. On Friday I called the breakout at 1512.50 over the pennant top of the ES and when it popped above that horizontal red line it just exploded almost 10 full points in the afternoon. You must be nimble to be able to trade that type of action. Don't be a stuck in the mud trader please?
Now let's think out loud about why the bonds rally and yields will fall? How about some good economic news? how about some global tensions being relieved, how about Greenspan says something bullish for a change?<g> No folks I think it will be some good news on inflation this week since the entire planet is fixated now with "inflation" world wide. We have a slew of very important eco reports coming out this week ending with the PPI & CPI by Thurs and Friday, that's op ex Friday. Ohh this is gonna be a fun week huh? So we need a catalyst to move the bond market higher and push yields lower while the markets will be headed higher in a nice rally till it stops again. I still say the street is now so scared of what the FED will say this month they will downgraded everything they can, sell off some of the hard fought winners, meaning take some profits ahead of that date, and then post FED ahead of earnings season regroup and refocus on earnings one more time. Below is the economic calendar for this week.
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