Monday Morning, November 26th

   SITE NEWS

New IceMD Recording:

Big Biceps and a Trim Waist Mean Longer Life for Men;

   Dow Stock News

IBM shares may be may be a bargain after weak third-quarter software sales depressed its share price, business weekly Barron's reported;

BA Boeing Wachovia Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform;

   Ice Man Stocks

Breakouts the Ice Man may consider trading:

STT - 80
PCLN - 110.50

Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:

RL - 67.50
NIHD - 50
GLDN - 103
UTHR - 100
STRA - 176
XLE - 75
GDX - 49 = 50.30 Gap

   Media Commentators

Cramer's Comments:

Was a previously aired show from May 28, 2007.

Barrons:

CCU, HET, BCE and other takeover candidates could be a value here since some are being priced like they won´t happen.
HOG - could be a long term buy
HPQ - cautious take on $52 price target
DISH and T merger still being speculated on

   Ice Cold Commentators

Break Man Video Summary:

Break out buy (or short sell) watch list for short term gains November 26 includes: WEC, ABK, ODP, VRTX, MNST, ACLI, BOOM, AOC, CRM, PTRY.

Several candidates for break out or short sell  plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out (or selling the break down) on good volume and closing at least some on the  first day.

Swing Man Market Recap:

The market traded mostly lower for the week before the holiday, and then rallied post holiday on Friday´s abbreviated trading session.  As you can see in the graph below, all the major indices lost ground this week.  While stocks were falling last week, crude oil and gold posted solid gains.  Over the last several weeks, the market has been attempting to bring stock prices in line with what´s transpiring in our economy.  Needless to say, the continued fallout from the subprime situation has led many economists to lower their growth expectations.  As a result, many stock analysts are in the process of reducing their earnings expectations for the market as a whole.  Last week, the SPX traded as low as 1416 while the Dow reached a low of 12,796.  These levels represent an approximate 10 percent correction in each index.  To put this into perspective, there have only been two greater corrections in this entire bull market: August 2007 (SPX lost 11.9%) and March 2003 (SPX lost 17.3%).

At this stage we really need to examine where we are in the big picture and what we should focus on over the near term.  Despite all the negativity of late, the market is still remains bullish from a long term perspective.  The most probable count for the SPX/DOW is that these indices are currently in a Major wave 4 pullback.  Under this scenario Major wave 5 will take the market to new highs once Major wave 4 completes.  From a historical perspective, this recent correction looks similar to what occurred back in 1998 which also happened to be a Major wave 4 pullback.  While it´s impossible to predict how this will unfold, it´s definitely too early to say this bull market has completely run out of steam.  For now, we´ll continue to monitor how this correction plays out and act accordingly.

As stated above, the market is undergoing some sort of correction.  All of the major US indices and most of the foreign indices are currently in confirmed downtrends.  However, some of our indicators are beginning to reach levels typically associated with some sort of bottoms (see charts below).  They have yet to hit extreme levels so more downside is still possible but we will be on the lookout for any such changes going forward.  We suggest you continue to closely watch the 1405-1430 area on the SPX and the 12,700-800 area on the Dow since they represent important support levels over the short term.  Late last week, these support levels were tested with the market responding by reversing back up off this area on Friday.  More importantly, many of our major indices appear to be forming some bullish patterns on their intraday charts.  Specifically, the 60 minute charts of the major indexes are now displaying bullish wedge patterns accompanied by positive divergence (see various 60 minute charts below).  These patterns would be confirmed with a volume break and hold above their current downtrend lines and by doing so would likely lead to some further upward movement over the coming days.  Under such a scenario, look for the major indexes to find stiff resistance at their rapidly declining 20 day moving averages.

In summary, the major US indices remain in downtrends on their daily charts but late last week reversed up nicely off some important support levels.  Further, many 60 minute charts of the major indexes have morphed into bullish falling wedge patterns which objectively should lead to some type of move higher over time.  Thus, early next week, we´re going to be looking for a continuation of Friday´s advance.

Good Trading.

   CNBC Fast Money Review

Fast Money Trade School
 
1. Best Advice For Trading

What´s the best advice the Fast Money traders have ever received? Find out.

Jeff Macke: Buy low sell high.
Guy Adami: Don´t get emotional about stocks.
Karen Finerman: If you can´t handle the loss – don´t play.
Pete Najarian: When in doubt… palms out.

2. Street Talking

If you´re an animal lover, you´re going to love this next post. It´s all about bear hugs, island reversals and strangles. Wait! What the heck are the traders talking about?

Although those terms might seem like something you´d hear on a National Geographic special, they´re actually terms tossed around by traders every day.

Bear hug
A bear hug is an offer from one company to buy the stock of another, at a price that´s seriously higher than anyone else would otherwise pay.

Island reversal
An island reversal is a term used by market technicians to explain a pattern in a stock´s chart. Specifically, island reversals are isolated data points separated by gaps.

Strangle
A strangle is a position in a call and put with the same maturity, different strike price.

3. Fast Money Mail - They Answer Your Trading Questions

Time to dip into the Fast money mailbag and answer more of your questions.

Kevin from Indiana
Kevin writes, “Which sectors tend to perform well in a volatile market?’
Jeff Macke says, “look for companies that pay high dividends, or have a low multiple.’

Alan from Missouri
Alan writes, “Much is made of the put/call ratios such as those published by the CBOE.’ What guidance, if any, can the average investor gain from such statistics?
Pete Najarian says "the put/call ratio is meaningless to me. It´s based on shear volume." I want to know who are the buyers and sellers.

Tammy from Tennessee
“When buying puts for protection, how many puts do you typically buy versus the amount of stock held.’ How many strikes out of the money and how far out in time?
Karen Finerman explains "for S&P puts I buy puts that are 2%-3% out of the money." For example, if the S&P is around 1500 I buy the 1460´s 2 months out, she says.

Roger from Ohio
Roger writes, “could you explain what is meant when the panel says a stock is overbought or under-owned?’ How can you tell if a stock is either one of these?
Guy Adami said "if the top five owners of stock are hedge funds – the stock is over-owned. Don´t hold stock that´s owned by fast money people.’

Paul from Florida
Paul writes, “When the VIX is high, peaking out, it is a sign of a temporary bottom for the S&P. Is there an indicator to be used for an individual stock?’
Pete Najarian explains "personally, I look for someone to enter a trading pit and buy up calls. When I see that, I ask myself if it´s time for me to enter as well.’

4. How To Trade With Wall Street Whales

"Do as I do, not as I say" That´s, the motto behind a little segment we like to call whale watching where we profile the world's most successful investors - a.k.a whales - and try to find out if you can trade in their wake.

Warren Buffett
Bio: Buying what Buffet buys doubles S&P 500 gains, according to Bloomberg.
Best trade: Berkshire Hathaway (BRK) stock.
Strategy: Undervalued and unloved companies.
Guy Adami explains Warren Buffet recently bought JNJ because he feels it´s completely undervalued.

 Carl Icahn
Bio: From ´06 – ´04 Icahn´s stakes in 54 companies netted a 54% annual return.
Best Trade: RJR Nabisco
Strategy: The Break-Up
Finerman says Icahn looks for companies that are vulnerable to the point where he can go and force them to change, And he goes and does it.

Bill Ackman
Bio: Founder, Pershing Square Capital Management
Best Trade: McDonald´s (MCD)
Strategy: Activist
Karen Finerman says He´s kind of the young buck of Wall Street whales

Eddie Lampert
Bio: Started ESL Investments
Best Trade: Sears (SHLD)
Strategy: The Turnaround

Jeff Macke says with all these guys you´ve got to be early. You invest with them in the weeks following the announcement to avoid the stock spike and stick with them for the long-term.

Kirk Kerkorian
Bio: CEO of Tracinda Corporation
Best Trade: MGM Mirage (MGM)
Strategy: Activist Investor
Pete Najarian explains he doesn´t try to spread himself too thin or put himself in multiple trades. He finds what he likes, and focuses on achieving his goals.

Ken Griffin
Bio: CEO Citadel Investment Group
Best Trade: Amaranth
Strategy: Qunat Fund
Pete Najarian says I think Ken Griffin is magnificent at finding the bottom and I´m watching to see when he jumps into the financials.

5. Chartology: Understanding Technical Analysis

Market technicians typically evaluate patterns in the stock market. What are the pros seeing in the charts?
Oppenheimer Chief Market Technician Carter Worth joined the panel for this conversation. He believes that after a great run most stocks act in a certain way when they´re topping-off. The same is true after a sell-off. In other words they all bottom the same way, adds Worth.

What is a head and shoulders top?
That´s just a term to make a chart look like something you´d recognize, replies Worth. But the configuration suggests investors should sell. He adds Lenar´s (LEN) current chart is a classic head and shoulders top.
What is a head and shoulders bottom?
It´s the mirror image, explains Worth. However, this configuration suggests investors should buy. He adds the Nikkei´s current chart is a classic head and shoulders bottom.

What´s a break-out?
A break-out is a chart with well defined level at the top and then the stock explodes higher says Worth. Wynn Resorts (WYNN) chart shows a classic break-out pattern, he adds.

What´s a break-down?
A break-down is a chart with well defined lows and then the stock drops lower. The MGIC Investment Corp (MTG) chart shows a classic break-down pattern, says Worth.
Readers it´s worth noting, most professional investors combine technical analysis with valuation and other market influences before making buy or sell decisions.

6. Secrets From The Pro's
From evaluating a bank to investing in a retailer – how do the Fast Money pro´s do it?

TRADING BROKERS

Metrics That Matter?
- M&A Advisory Business
- Underwriting
- Trading
Karen Finerman says Brokers can really make a fortune or lose their shirts on the commission from trades, and the ones who aren´t doing it well in a volatile environment are the ones to avoid.

TRADING RETAIL STOCKS

Metrics That Matter
- Same-Store Sales (A.K.A "Comps")
- Fashion Initiatives
- Execution
Jeff Macke says usually on the first Thursday of every month the retailers release same-store-sales, which are a report card for the sector. Don´t own a retailer who´s missing their numbers.

TRADING DRUG STOCKS

Metrics That Matter
- Conferences & Clinical Test Trial Dates
- Current Roster Of Drugs
- Pipeline Of Future Drugs
Pete Najarian says it´s important to know these metrics because drugs sometimes hit stumbling blocks. Of course, other times they become multi-billion dollar blockbusters.

TRADING ENERGY & COMMODITY STOCKS

Metrics That Matter
- Price of the Commodity
- Beware Valuation
- Stocks are NOT a proxy play for the underlying commodity
Guy Adami feels the third point is extremely important. For example, he says if you´re bullish on gold don´t buy a mining company such as NEM because you also get all kinds of corporate risks.

TRADING TAKEOVER TARGETS

Questions You Should Ask
- Are there "supervoting shares"?
- What state is the company incorporated in?
- Are there big shareholders who've been active in the past?
Karen Finerman says stay away from companies incorporated in Pennsylvania. They´re not shareholder friendly. By contrast, Delaware is extremely friendly. And you can find out the state of incorporation on the front of a “10-Q’

TRADING DEALS "IN LIMBO"

Questions You Should Ask
- What kind of bidder is it? Corporate?
- Is it a "trophy property"?
- What leverage can the buyer use against the target?
Finerman says when you´re looking at the bidders, determine if they´re corporate bidders or some kind of LBO. Finerman likes corporate bidders best.

TRADING CHIP STOCKS

Metrics That Matter
- Global Demand
- Commoditization
- Gadgets
Guy Adami explains gross margins are very important. INTC margins are expected to go higher into next year and that makes it a stock he wants to own.

TRADING SOFTWARE & VIDEOGAME STOCKS

Metrics That Matter
- Product Cycle Demand
Jeff Macke says judge video games by the hardware release. Typically SNE, NTDOY and MSFT lead on new consoles he says. A few years after that, profit margins are strong on the new software titles.

TRADING GADGETS AND TELECOM

Metrics That Matter
- Product Cycle Demand
- Wireless Capacity
Pete Najarian investigates how much growth lies ahead for companies in this sector. For example, he likes RIMM because Pete anticipates they will explode when they get into China.

   News and Events Digest

Breaking News

Dubai International Capital said it bought a "substantial" stake in Sony, in the latest in a series of investments by the Middle Eastern investment fund in major global businesses. - WSJ

Rio Tinto gave a bullish presentation of its business prospects as it moved to fend off a takeover proposal from rival BHP Billiton. - WSJ

Affiliated Computer Services (ACS) said Monday that its board of directors has endorsed a proposed $1 billion share buyback program and has authorized the company to purchase up to $200 million of stock, effective immediately under the program. The outsourcing and IT services group said its board will continue to evaluate the timing of share purchases and anticipates authorizing addition share repurchases under the program. - MarketWatch

Defense contractor Northrop Grumman Corp. (NOC) said it's won a $160 million U.S. Air Force contract to modernize global positioning system command and control. Should the team be selected to proceed into system development, the program could potentially be worth more than $1 billion, the company said in a statement. - MarketWatch
Sanofi-AventisSA (SNY) said Monday it will invest EUR70 million to build an influenza-vaccine facility in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen, expanding the French drugmaker's presence in China. - MarketWatch

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) said Monday it won a "major" 30-year development deal to upgraded several of its existing petroleum contracts in Libya. The new agreements cover fields with approximately 2.5 billion barrels of recoverable high-quality oil reserves. Over the next five years, about $5 billion in capital investment is expected to be made to increase gross production to more than 300,000 barrels per day from the current level of around 100,000 barrels per day. The deal marks the second recent pact with Libya by an American oil company after Exxon last week. - MarketWatch

Online travel company Orbitz Worldwide (OWW) said Monday it inked an agreement with JetBlue Airways (JBLU) distribute its airfares through its Orbitz, Cheap Tickets, and Orbitz for Business Web sites. The arrangement is effective immediately. - MarketWatch

M&A Activity:

Philips (PHG), Europe's largest consumer electronics company, will launch a tender offer of $95.50 in cash for each Genlyte (GLYT) share within five business days. The offer represents a 52% premium to Genlyte's closing price on Friday. The board of directors at Genlyte is backing the bid. - MarketWatch

U.K. Water utility Kelda Group on Monday said it's reached an agreement on the terms of a 3.04 billion pound ($6.26 billion) takeover offer from a consortium including divisions of HSBC and Citigroup. Kelda said shareholders will receive 1,100.65 pence a share in cash, including a 10.65 pence dividend, representing a 17.5% premium to the price on Nov. 21, the day before Kelda first announced the offer. Separately the company said its first-half net profit rose 58% to 122.7 million pounds as revenue for the period grew 5.6% to 434.9 million pounds. - MarketWatch

IPO Central:

IPOs on schedule for the week of 11/26/07:

Tremisis Energy Acquisition CORP II (TEAX). The company is a newly formed blank check company. The company is selling 9.5M shares at the initial range between $8-$8. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $0M and Net Income of $0M. The Lead Managers are Merrill and EarlyBird Capital. Tremisis Energy Acquisition CORP II (TEAX) is headquartered in Houston, TX.

   Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:

Airlines - Passenger
 AKH Air France KLM Citigroup Upgraded from Hold to Buy

Beverages
 FMX FEMSA JP Morgan Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight

Biotech
 CELG Celgene Banc of America Sec Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
 TWTI Third Wave Collins Stewart Initiated at Buy

Broadcasting
 DTV DIRECTV Bernstein Upgraded from Underperform to Mkt Perform

Computer Hardware
 TER Teradyne HSBC Securities Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight $14.50 to $13
 DELL Cowen Says 3rd Quarter could be a catalyst
 AAPL Piper Jaffrey Positive Comments
 ARW Arrow Elec Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $45
 AVT Avnet Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $43

Computer Services
 RATE Bankrate Bear Stearns Upgraded from Peer Perform to Outperform

Computer Software
 CNQR Concur Tech Broadpoint Capital Initiated at Buy $40

Construction
 ATRO Astronics Corporation Rodman & Renshaw Initiated at Mkt Perform

Finance Companies
 MA MasterCard Calyon Securities Price Target Raised Buy $225 to $260
 ATAXZ Amer. 1st Tax Exempt Inv. RBC Capital Mkts Downgraded from Outperform to Sector Perform $9 to $8
 FNM Fannie Mae UBS Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
 FRE Freddie Mac UBS Downgraded from Buy to Neutral

Healthcare Equipment
 LH Laboratory Corp Wachovia Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
 TSON Trans1 Wachovia Initiated at Outperform
 TSON Trans1 Lehman Brothers Initiated at Equal-weight

Heavy Machinery
 DE Deere Banc of America Sec Upgraded from Neutral to Buy $130 to $186

Household Goods
 KMB Kimberly-Clark Lehman Brothers Upgraded from Underweight to Equal-weight

Industrial Equipment
 HRSH Hirsch Intl Rodman & Renshaw Initiated at Mkt Perform

Insurance
 AET Aetna JP Morgan Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight

Motor Vehicles
 ITT ITT Industries Credit Suisse Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform

Oil and Gas
 GRP Grant Prideco UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
 TDW Tidewater Jefferies & Co Upgraded from Hold to Buy $66
 ANW Aegean Marine Petrol Jefferies & Co Price Target Raised Buy $42 to $55
 RIG Transocean Credit Suisse Price Target Raised Outperform $135 to $168

Pharmaceutical
 RDEA Ardea Biosciences Piper Jaffray Initiated at Buy

REITs
 PSA Public Storage Wachovia Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform

Retail Services
 TA TravelCenters of America BWS Financial Price Target Raised Buy $50 to $25

Retail Trade
 CASY Casey's General Friedman Billings Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform $32

Savings & Loan
 FMD First Marblehead Friedman Billings Downgraded from Mkt Perform to Underperform $43 to $26

Semiconductors
 OVTI OmniVision Robert W. Baird Upgraded from Underperform to Neutral $14 to $22
 PHG Royal Philips Electronics Deutsche Securities Upgraded from Hold to Buy
 ISIL Intersil Jefferies & Co Downgraded from Buy to Hold $38 to $30
Solar Energy JASO JA Solar Lehman Brothers Price Target Raised Equal-weight $55 to $65

Telecommunications
 VM Virgin Mobile USA Soleil Upgraded from Sell to Hold
 GLW DBAB Positive Comments

Utilities
 SBS Companhia de Saneamento Brean Murray Price Target Raised Buy $54 to $93
 SRP Sierra Pacific Deutsche Securities Downgraded from Buy to Hold $20 to $19.50
 NGG National Grid Lehman Brothers Upgraded from Equal-weight to Overweight