Monday Morning, November 12th
SITE NEWS
Ice Cold Stocks is please to announce the opening of the Guest Commentator section. For starters, we are featuring top analysts Harry Boxer and Mike Paulenoff. New talent will be added along the way.
To visit this section visit http://icecoldstocks.com/guest_commentators.html
Dow Stock News
Honeywell (HON) said it has signed a $1 billion deal to supply avionics on new aircraft and provide maintenance on Air Train´s (AAI) entire fleet through 2030. Honeywell will supply AirTran with the full Honeywell avionics portfolio for new aircraft -- up to 150 Boeing 737s. In addition, Honeywell will provide maintenance services for all Honeywell equipment on AirTran's entire fleet -- up to 250 aircraft -- including avionics, lighting, mechanical components, Auxiliary Power Unit and wheels and brakes. - MarketWatch
MSFT - downgraded to Neutral at Merrill;
Reuters reports that Disney (DIS) will enter the crowded Japanese cell phone market with its own branded phone.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Citigroup (C), JP Morgan (JPM), and Bank of America (BAC) are closer to setting up a fund to bail out funds with asset that do not trade due to the credit crisis.
The Wall Street Journal writes that Intel (INTC) will introduce its next generation of chips which do not required traditional silicon architechture.
The New York Times writes that doctors may have over-reacted to problems with stents from makers like Boston Scientific (BSX) and Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
The New York Times writes that Intel (INTC) will introduce a chip which will help video quality of content delivered over the internet.
The FT writes that the Citigroup (C) board is telling CEO candidates that they will have broad powers to sell off units or even break the bank up.
Ice Man Stocks
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
SQNM - 10.20
CPKI - 16.05
PMI - 15.75
RDN - closed at high
MTG - 22.50
Depressed stocks the Ice Man may buy:
CSR - 17.80
GOOG - 651 Gap, 630 50% Retracement, 610
BIDU - 316 Gap
RIMM - 100.60 Gap
AAPL - 144 Gap
S&P - 1435 Gap
SGR - 68.10 Gap
ANH - 49.50 Gap
BCSI - 30 Gap
FSLR - 186.50 Retracement
XRAY - 41.50 Gap
DECK - 113.50 Gap
Dollar Man Ideas:
TGIC - 8.80
ONT - 1.15 Slow Mover
SONS - 7.60 = 8.28 Gap
Media Commentators
Cramer's Comments:
Bullish: MCD
Bearish: UA
Barrons:
QCOM - could be $60 in a year
Big Cap Techs are not immune to a major slow down
CSCO - positive remarks
Zacks:
Positive: VZ, ALL, UNH
Ice Cold Commentators
Break Man Video Summary:
Break out buy (or short sell) watch list for short term gains November 12 includes: NT, ALJ, SQNM, BBG, GT, HLX, HOS, VPRT, AKAM, HCN, PNW, RATE.
Several candidates for break out or short sell plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out (or selling the break down) on good volume and closing at least some on the first day.
Swing Man Market Recap:
A look at the market via video format: Click on the following link and watch the video:
http://www.breakpointtrades.com/CamtasiaFiles/newsletter111107/newsletter111107.html
CNBC Fast Money Review
1. WEEK OF PAIN
The headline: The NASDAQ had its worst week since 2002 and the S&P 500 fell to its lowest level in 2 months. What´s the word on the Street?
Karen Finerman expects to see huge volatility going into the S&P options expirations however one day next week, she expects a "doozy of a rally".
Guy Adami feels this is a fantastic environment for a trader. He says instead of fearing volatility, embrace it.
2. WHAT WAS GREEN LAST WEEK
The headline: After This Week's Market Turmoil, Defensive Names Among The Few Closing Higher.
Karen Finerman likes MO as a defensive play.
Guy Adami says PG is the name most investors talk about as a defensive consumer staples trade, however he feels UL is much cheaper.
Pete Najarian prefers MCD and KO for international exposure.
Tim Seymour thinks Russia has worked as a solid defensive play.
3. CAN WALMART SAVE THIS MARKET
Warm weather, the credit crisis and gas prices are threatening to drag down retail. What will next week´s WMT and M earnings reveal about consumers?
CNBC´s Margaret Brennan joins the panel for this conversation
Brennan expects to hear that Q3 was
tough in part because of warmer weather but she also thinks traffic is picking up because the cold weather hit the Northeast.
She adds JCP already said to expect the tough consumer environment to continue and Wal-Mart lowered its same-store sales outlook.
Brennan says one interesting name to watch is TJX because there´s speculation that lower priced retailers could benefit from this environment.
Karen Finerman says “We´re
still sticking with Wal-Mart’. “But it has been trying time for retail.. and I really do hope for more cold weather.’
Jeff Macke wasn´t on the show Friday but was contacted privately and he recommended the following trades.
The Buys:
GPS
GME
The Sells:
SBUX
HD
4. IS STEEL STRONG ENOUGH
X, the nation's largest steelmaker, melted this weak on dismal news from the housing and auto markets. Has the sell-off created a buying opportunity?
Guy Adami sees consolidation coming in the mining sector and he thinks U.S. Steel is a likely takeover candidate. Consequently, Adami says it´s a buy.
Tim Seymour agrees. He adds there´s speculation that Korea´s PKX might want to acquire U.S. Steel as well as a couple of the Russian steel makers. The only issue, says Seymour, is whether Americans object to a foreign entity buying U.S. Steel?
5. THE WEEK: NASDAQ'S LOSES 6.5%
The headline: Cisco Earnings, Outlook Disappoint Street, Triggering Tech
Stock Slide;
Pete Najarian explains a slowdown in sales to financial institutions, which is a crucial customer base for CSCO, is what disappointed the Street. However, he believes this could be a buying opportunity. He likes AAPL most, which fell 9% this week. He says they just started selling the iPhone in Germany and it will be in China not long from now.
Guy Adami adds that EMC was dragged lower in the sell-off and he recommends buying this dip.
Tim Seymour prefers buying MSFT which slid 10% on the week.
Karen Finerman concurs.
6. POPS AND DROPS
ALL popped 4%: Adami likes ALL but says stop out at $50.
MON popped 3.5%: Najarian thinks MON is a buy.
CLWR dropped 38%: Najarian thinks CLWR is a takeover target.
NDAQ dropped 10%: Finerman recommends sticking with this stock.
FNM dropped 6%: Seymour thinks it´s a tough story that likely won´t get better.
WHR dropped 4%: Adami thinks the company is getting cheap on valuation.
7. YOUR FIRST MOVE FOR MONDAY
Here are some Green Trades
Adami recommends BWA because their business comes from fuel efficiency and emissions control.
Najarian prefers ENER because they´re getting into solar cells as well as AG as an agriculture play.
Seymour says PHO is a green trade because they get water to parts of the world where water is not pure.
Finerman likes KALU as her green play because they supply material for lighter and more fuel efficient planes. (Okay, she admits it´s a stretch as a green trade.)
News and Events Digest
Breaking News
Fears that overseas growth won't be strong enough to put U.S. markets back on track have fueled the market retreat, as credit turmoil continues to hurt financial firms, the Fed warns of slower U.S. growth and oil prices climb. - WSJ
Some defibrillator wires from St. Jude Medical are in rare instances puncturing holes in the hearts of cardiac patients, reports in medical journals say. - WSJ
Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS) is reducing its exposure to emerging markets as turmoil in global credit markets risks triggers a correction in Latin America, Eastern Europe and parts of Asia, the Daily Telegraph reported on its Web site Sunday.
Citing a series of client notes issued recently, the Telegraph reported that Goldman Sachs has advised cashing in profits as a precautionary "near-term" measure. - MarketWatch
Zale Corporation (ZALE), a leading specialty retailer of fine jewelry in North America, today announced that it has completed the sale of its Bailey Banks & Biddle brand to Finlay Fine Jewelry Corporation for a purchase price of $200 million. The Company expects to realize estimated after-tax proceeds, net of transaction expenses and outstanding payables, of approximately $175 million from the sale.
Countrywide (CFC), the largest U.S. mortgage lender, said in a U.S. regulatory filing on Friday, that if its credit rating dropped below its current lowest rating, this would "severely," limit its access to the public corporate debt market and that could have repercussions on its business. - Reuters
Media Summary:
According to Reuters, BHP Billiton (BHP) will not sell its petroleum division, as had been rumored, to finance a bid for Rio Tinto (RTP).
Reuters writes that most of the Hershey (HSY) was pushed out by the trust that controls the company. The reason given was the company's poor performance.
The FT writes that OPEC will ask large oil consuming countries to insure demand in the future instead of making huge investment in alternative energy.
Barron's writes that there is a rumor that Google (GOOG) might by Sprint (S).
Bloomberg writes that BHP promised to buy-back $30 billion in shares if it buys Rio Tinto.
The New York Times writes that a fund put together by major banks to give short-term loans to structured investment vehicles will do nothing to help many of these funds.
The Wall Street Journal writes that a filing by CountryWide (CFC) discloses that any cut in it credit rating could badly damage its ability to raise money.
Reuters writes that NYMEX took a stake in Norway's IMAREX.
The Wall Street Journal writes that HSBC (HBC) may have to increase its reserves for bad subprime mortages.
The Wall Street Journal writes that the cable industry will figh FCC efforts to cap its growth and help small channels get carriage on cable systems.
M&A Activity:
IBM (IBM) and Cognos® (COGN) today announced that the two companies have entered into a definitive agreement for IBM to acquire Cognos, a publicly-held company based in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, in an all-cash transaction at a price of approximately $5 billion USD or $58 USD per share, with a net transaction value of $4.9 billion USD. The acquisition is subject to Cognos shareholder approval, regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions. It is expected to close in the first quarter of 2008.
IPO Central:
IPOs on schedule for the week of 11/12/07:
3Par Inc. (PAR). The company provides utility storage solutions for large to medium enterprises. The company is selling 7.5M shares at the initial range between $11-$13. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $75M and Net Income of $(-18)M. The Lead Managers are Goldman Sachs and Credit Suisse. 3Par Inc. (PAR) is headquartered in Fremont, CA and their website is www.3par.com.
Atlas Industries (AAAA). The company was recently formed entity that will acquire two paper/packaging companies and two metal manufacturing equipment businesses. The company is selling 13.3M shares at the initial range between $14-$16. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $377M and Net Income of $4M. The Lead Managers are Ferris Baker Watts, JMP Securities, and Oppenheimer. Atlas Industries (AAAA) is headquartered in Greenwich, CT.
Chimera Investment (CIM). The company invests in residential mortgage loans, residential mortgage-backed securities, real estate-related securities and various other asset classes. The company is selling 33.3M shares at the initial range between $15-$15. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $0M and Net Income of $0M. The Lead Managers are Merrill, Deutsche Bank, and Credit Suisse. Chimera Investment (CIM) is headquartered in New York, NY and their website is www.chimerareit.com.
Cross Match Technologies (CROS). The company provides electronic fingerprinting devices for government customers. The company is selling 8.3M shares at the initial range between $11-$13. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $77M and Net Income of $(-11)M. The Lead Manager is WR Hambrecht and Stanford Group is Co. Manager. Cross Match Technologies (CROS) is headquartered in Palm Beach Gardens, FL and their website is www.crossmatch.com.
El Paso Pipeline Partners (EPB). The company is a limited partnership that will own and operate natural gas transportation pipelines, storage and other midstream assets. The company is selling 25M shares at the initial range between $19-$21. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $104M and Net Income of $60M. The Lead Managers are Lehman, Citi, and Goldman. El Paso Pipeline Partners (EPB) is headquartered in Houston, TX.
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Biotech
BNVI Bionovo Merriman Curhan Ford Initiated at Buy
RMDX RemoteMDx BWS Financial Initiated at Buy $8.75
BCRX BioCryst Pharm Caris & Company Cut Price Target Average $9.50 to $8
HALO Halozyme Therapeutics Roth Capital Cut Price Target Hold $10 to $9
Bond Funds
FTD FTD Group Piper Jaffray Upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform
Broadcasting
DISH EchoStar Citigroup Downgraded from Buy to Hold
Brokerage Services
ETFC E*TRADE Citigroup Downgraded from Hold to Sell
Business Services
FIS Fidelity National Information Services Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
CTCT Constant Contact Cowen & Co Initiated at Outperform
CTCT Constant Contact CIBC Wrld Mkts Initiated at Sector Outperform
TTEC TeleTech Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Outperform $38 to $30
RVBD Riverbed Technology Piper Jaffray Upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform
Chemicals - Ethanol
PEIX Pacific Ethanol Broadpoint Capital Upgraded from Sell to Underperform
AVR Aventine Renewable Energy Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight
VSE VeraSun Energy Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight
Computer Hardware
SIGM Sigma Designs Roth Capital Price Target Raised Buy $50 to $60
Computer Services
SAPE Goldman Sachs Upgraded to Neutral
RNOW Rightnow Tech Piper Jaffray Upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform
Computer Software
CRM Salesforce.com Piper Jaffray Upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform
MDRX Allscripts UBS Upgraded from Sell to Neutral
NOVL Novell UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
SPSS SPSS Inc Roth Capital Upgraded from Hold to Buy $42
VDSI VASCO Data Security Morgan Keegan Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
VDSI VASCO Data Security Jefferies & Co Upgraded from Hold to Buy $25
ORCL Merrill Lynch Downgraded to Neutral
CNQR Concur Tech Piper Jaffray Downgraded from Outperform to Market Perform
ULTI Ultimate Software Piper Jaffray Downgraded from Strong Buy to Market Perform
Construction
RPM RPM Inc CIBC Wrld Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform
Educational Services
LINC Lincoln Educational Services Barrington Research Price Target Raised Outperform $17 to $20
Finance Companies
FNM Fannie Mae Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight
FRE Freddie Mac Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight
MFC Manulife Fncl RBC Capital Mkts Downgraded from Top Pick to Outperform
COF Capital One Calyon Securities Cut Price Target Buy $81 to $73
FNM Fannie Mae Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Outperform $85 to $60
Healthcare
CHTT Chattem Wachovia Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
MOGN MGI Pharma Brean Murray Downgraded from Hold to Sell $22
DUSA DUSA Pharma Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $4 to $3.50
Household Goods
TPX Tempur-Pedic Citigroup Upgraded from Hold to Buy
Insurance
AFL AFLAC Citigroup Downgraded from Hold to Sell
AFSI Amtrust Financial Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Outperform $22 to $21
HNT Health Net UBS Cut Price Target Neutral $60 to $55
Major Pharmaceutical
WYE Wyeth Bear Stearns Downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform
Manufacturing
AYI Acuity Brands CIBC Wrld Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform
Motion Pictures
LGF Lions Gate Entain Wedbush Morgan Price Target Raised Buy $12 to $13
WMG Warner Music Group Pali Research Cut Price Target Sell $7.50 to $5
Oil and Gas
BHI Baker Hughes Bernstein Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
HAL Halliburton Bernstein Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
NXY Nexen RBC Capital Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform
APA Apache Bernstein Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform
IMO Imperial Oil RBC Capital Mkts Downgraded from Outperform to Sector Perform
MDR McDermott Citigroup Downgraded from Buy to Hold
WNR Western Refining Caris & Company Cut Price Target Average $40 to $33
Real Estate
NRF Northstar Realty Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Outperform $16 to $14
Recreation
MAT Mattel JP Morgan Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight
Regional Banks
WB Wachovia Morgan Keegan Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform
WB Wachovia Keefe Bruyette Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform
REITs
IRC Inland Real Estate Wachovia Upgraded from Underperform to Mkt Perform
O Realty Income Wachovia Downgraded from Mkt Perform to Underperform
Restaurants
SBUX Starbucks UBS Cut Price Target Buy $42 to $38
Semiconductors
ALTR Altera Citigroup Upgraded from Hold to Buy $23 to $25
DRS DRS Tech Stifel Nicolaus Price Target Raised Buy $65 to $70
NSM National Semi UBS Downgraded from Buy to Neutral $32 to $26
ADI Analog Devices UBS Cut Price Target Buy $46 to $42
Solar Energy
JASO Bank of America Reiterates as Buy and said Guidance was conservative.
Services - Investor Education
SWIM Investools Kaufman Bros Price Target Raised Buy $18 to $20
Technology - Gaming
BYI Bally Technologies CIBC Wrld Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Outperform $35 to $47
Telecommunications
GIB CGI Group CIBC Wrld Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform
IDSY I.D. Systems Boenning & Scattergood Upgraded from Market Perform to Market Outperform $17
USM US Cellular Citigroup Upgraded from Sell to Hold
JNPR Juniper Networks Bernstein Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform
Utilities
CPNO Copano Energy Wachovia Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
MIR Mirant Lehman Brothers Upgraded from Equal-weight to Overweight