Monday Morning, October 22nd

   SITE NEWS

New IceMD Recording: Healthy Air At Home;

Green Tea for Long Life?

Japanese Study Shows Link Between Green Tea Drinkers and Lower Death Risk

WebMD Medical News - People who drink at least a pint of green tea each day have a lower risk of death, a Japanese study shows.

The lower overall death risk among green tea drinkers appears to be due to a lower risk of death from heart diseaseheart disease. And the benefit of green tea is especially pronounced in women, find Shinichi Kuriyama, MD, PhD, Tohoku University School of Public Policy in Sendai, Japan, and colleagues.

Green tea is a very popular drink in Japan. But some people drink more than others do. Women who drink five or more 3.4-ounce cups of green tea every day cut their risk of heart disease by 31% compared with women who drink one or fewer 3.4-ounce cups. Men who drink this much green tea cut their heart disease risk by 22%.

"Green tea may prolong your life through reducing heart disease and strokestroke," Kuriyama tells WebMD. "Our findings might explain the differences in mortality profile between Japan and the United States. The Japanese age-adjusted rate of mortality due to [heart disease and stroke] is about 30% lower than that of the United States."

The findings appear in the Sept. 13 issue of The Journal of the American Medical Association.

Hidden Treasure News:

SIBLING SPORTS ANNOUNCES NEW MIXED MARTIAL ARTS ORGANIZATION M-1 GLOBAL AND NAMES MONTE COX AS PRESIDENT AND CEO OF M-1 GLOBAL

NEW YORK CITY, NY, October 22, 2007-Sibling Entertainment Group Holdings, Inc. [SIBE] ["Sibling Holdings"] announced Sibling Theatricals, Inc. ["Sibling Theatricals"], a wholly-owned subsidiary of Sibling Entertainment Group, Inc., together with Garlin Holdings Limited as Managing Members, have formed Sibling Sports, LLC (a Delaware limited liability company) for the purpose of creating M-1 Global, LLC (a New York limited liability company), a new mixed martial arts organization.

In addition, Monte Cox, a 13-year veteran of the mixed martial arts industry was named President and CEO of M-1 Global.

Sibling Entertainment Group, Inc. is the company with which Sibling Holdings has previously signed an Agreement of Acquisition and Plan of Reorganization, the closing of which is currently pending. (See "Note to Editor" below for an explanation of Sibling Holdings relationship to Sibling Entertainment Group, Inc.).

"We are excited to announce the formation of Sibling Sports, LLC and our new mixed martial arts organization M-1 Global," said Mitchell Maxwell, President and CEO of Sibling Holdings.  "Mixed martial arts is the fastest growing sport in America.  It is the boxing of the 21st century.  We see our entry into sports entertainment as an integral part of our strategic plan to develop new and unique entertainment products worldwide."

"We have pulled together a world-class group of people to lead our new organization.  Our new management team has extensive mixed martial arts experience in Europe, Russia, Asia and the US.  We have developed a strategic alliance with SFX Media & Events, one of the premiere sports marketing, event management, and athlete management companies in the world," he said.

"We are thrilled to have a strategic alliance with M-1 Global and the outstanding team that Sibling Sports has put together," said Dennis Spencer, executive vice president of SFX Media and Events.

"We are pleased to announce Monte Cox as our CEO.  Monte has been recognized as one of the most influential persons in mixed martial arts in the world today.  He is generally considered one of the world's most successful fight managers, having produced a record seven world champions in the Ultimate Fighting Championship and built an impressive team of nearly 60 world-class competitors," Maxwell said.

Cox said, "I have been involved in mixed martial arts for almost 13 years.  While I have been offered many other positions over the years, this is the first one that I have accepted.  I am elated to have the opportunity to work with Mitchell Maxwell and the great team of managers he has been able to assemble.  We look forward to continuing to move mixed martial arts into the mainstream, not only here in the US, but worldwide."

"We have developed an alliance with M-1 Mix Fight and we are honored to be working with Vadim Finkelchtein, Apy Echteld, and Joost Raimond.  They have many years of experience managing fighters and staging events in Europe, Russia, and Asia.  Rounding out our new management team are Bob Clark, currently serving as President of Sibling Theatricals, and Brian Patton, a CPA, and business manager for MMA legend Matt Hughes," Cox said.  

   Dow Stock News

Computer, printer and business software maker Hewlett-Packard Co. said Monday it will buy Middle Eastern systems integrator Atos Origin Middle East, or AOME, in a move to broaden its consulting and integration capacity in the region.

Wal-Mart Stores will spend up to 100 billion yen ($878 million) to buy out minority shareholders in Japanese supermarket unit Seiyu in an effort to turn around the loss-making chain. - CNBC

Reuters writes that Wal-Mart (WMT) will buy the part of its Japanese operations that it does not own for $350 million.

The Wall Street Journal reports that AT&T (T) will sell wireless access to Napster's collection of five million songs. The service will not work with Apple's (AAPL) iPhone.

The New York Times writes that the FTC has decided not to open a formal antitrust inquiry into Intel's (INTC) practices.

The New York Times writes that libraries are rejecting offers from Microsoft (MSFT) and Google (GOOG) to move their libraries online.

Bloomberg writes that sales outside the US allowed GM (GM) to sell more cars worldwide than Toyota (TM) in the first nine months of the year.

DD DuPont Citigroup Downgraded from Buy to Hold
AXP American Express Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight
MO Altria UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy

   Ice Man Stocks

Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:

CNC23

Depressed stocks the Ice Man may buy:

YTEC - 11.45
QXM - 10.30 Gap
CNQ - 75.25 Gap
OIH - 175.60 Gap
EDU - 66.90 Gap
HPQ - 50.50 Gap
UNP - 116.30 Gap
JRJC - 29.60 Gap

Breakdown Shorts:

SBS - Breaking 48.80 = 45

   Media Commentators

Cramer's Comments:

Jim Cramer had notes about investing like a pro. A summary is posted under our education section.

   Ice Cold Commentators

Break Man Video Summary:

Break out buy (or short sell) watch list for short term gains October 22 includes:  ANAD, PGH, NLY, PWR, HOV, MFA, ADI, CBG, CC, LDK, EFUT, MER.

Several candidates for break out or short sell  plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out (or selling the break down) on good volume and closing at least some on the  first day.

Swing Man Market Recap:

In last week's newsletter, we discussed how the indexes were struggling to make much headway recently but that they all remained above their respective 20 day moving averages.  We also pointed out that the major indices remained well into overbought territory and that some sort of pullback was likely to occur in the short term.  Finally, we touched upon the fact that sentiment was becoming overly bullish as exemplified by the lower readings in the 21 day put/call ratio and the fact the Investors Intelligence Survey showed the number of Bulls exceeding 60 percent (typically where some sort of market top occurs when this level is reached).  As a result, we suggested that everyone be somewhat cautious and that one must be extremely nimble going forward especially considering that we were entering the heart of earnings season.

This past week began with some selling on Monday and Tuesday as some of the non-tech indexes pulled back towards their respective 20 day moving averages in reaction to the overbought conditions.  Volatility began to increase on Wednesday as the cyclicals (SPX) initially went down on some negative earnings from the banking sector only to recover and close near their 20 day moving average.  We also learned on Wednesday that the Bull/Bear spread reported by the Investors Intelligence Survey had now grown to over 42 percent.  This information was immediately reported on the blog and also sent out via live alerts since we felt that this high reading was evidence of growing complacency amongst market participants.  Although timing a move lower based solely on sentiment readings is nearly impossible, we were alarmed by these results and wanted to make sure you were aware of the growing risk associated with such readings.  

Thursday turned out to be a narrow range day as the Nasdaq/NDX continued to display relative strength on the session.  After the close on Thursday, several leading technology firms (including GOOG) reported strong results which had the Nasdaq 100 futures trading well above fair value Thursday Evening and even early Friday morning.  However, prior to the market opening on Friday several big name companies reported disappointing earnings and more importantly gave cautious forward guidance.  In fact, Catepillar even pointed to the likelihood of a recession occurring in the United States.  

Another Dow component, 3M, was also hinting at tougher times ahead.  What's most important is how the market reacted to these comments - with a great deal of concern as these stocks were taken to the woodshed on Friday.  With complacency at such a high ebb amongst traders it was the perfect excuse to sell stocks and ask questions later.  Although the selling was orderly throughout the day, there was no attempt by the bulls to step in an aggressively buy the decline.  Why?  The simple reason being that buyers were exhausted - not many players left who haven't already bought.  The end result being a major reversal day down for the overall market and implications for more selling early next week since the market closed on at the lows.

Technically speaking, Friday's selling has started to inflict some damage on the charts.  All the major indices have now broken below their respective 20 day moving averages and some even there 50 day moving averages.  Thus, we suggest that you consider to exercise good judgment here and continue to remain cautious.  Volume did not appear to be capitulatory and therefore there is a strong chance of further selling to take place early next week.  Stand aside and wait for some type of positive divergences to develop on the intra day charts (at a minimum) before stepping into the fray.  If hedged/short keep your positions until you see such divergences developing but don't be too quick to cover especially if support if additional support levels are breached.

Lastly, keep in mind that many market participants will now be looking squarely at the FED for an indication of where they see rates going and how quickly.  Until the bullish sentiment in unwound there is no reason to be an aggressive buyer of stocks.  Sure they're will be bounces, with some being violent, but one should continue to exert discipline in the near term until the picture clears.  Take things one day at a time and tread lightly.

   CNBC Fast Money Review

1. MAJOR INDEXES CLOSE LOWER
  
The headline: Stocks Drop Most in 2 Months After Bank, Industrial Earnings Reignite Recession Concern
  
Guy Adami says the CAT statement that Fed rate cuts wouldn´t help the
economy scared investors. Pullbacks are “healthy’ and he remains encouraged even in the face of Friday´s action.
  
Karen Finerman´s firm didn´t buy much Friday and they're hanging onto puts for protection – even though they usually sell puts when the VIX ticks higher. Unfortunately, we wouldn´t know if we are in a recession until it´s too late, so it doesn´t hurt to take down some exposure on days like this, Karen said. At the same time, investors can use days likes this to look for opportunities to get into stocks that have become cheap because of the overall pullback.
  
Najarian echoed Karen´s protectionist
attitude. When volatility gets up to 15% or 16% it is time to get a little defensive.
  
Jeff Macke says the problem is better defined. Whether or not that´s a good thing is yet to be seen.
  
2. OIL BREAKS $90
  
The headline: Crude Crosses $90 For First Time, Then Gives Up Gains to Finish at $88.60; Gold Retreats From 27-year High as Dollar
Regains Ground Against Euro
  
Oil reaching $90 is “big,’ commodities guru Dennis Gartman said, joining the panel by telephone. However, the record levels in oil are less a demand issue and more a political issue this time around, he said. The instability in Turkey is unlikely to worsen and he thinks the market will see $75 oil sooner rather than later.
  
Adami noted that for the first time in a while, there was not a flight to quality in gold as oil peaked. He thinks the next $8 to $10 in oil will be to the downside.
  
Gartman said he would be “demonstrably less long’ gold and oil in the near future. If we´re headed for a recession, and Gartman thinks, “we may already be in one,’ both commodities are overextended.
  
3. THE SELL-OFF
  
Looking forward, the traders gauge Friday´s sell-off in terms of next week´s earnings flood. What are the areas of safety as the focus moves from financials and industrials to tech, pharma and consumer names?
  
Adami predicts MSFT will “knock the ball out of the playing field’ when it reports next Thursday. He expects to hear that the company is making money hand-over-fist off the Halo 3 video game phenomenon and strong PC sales and the $32 level, long a point of resistance, could change to a level of support for the stock.
  
Macke also recommended Microsoft for its “phenomenal’ fundamentals and because it is finally making money off its X-Box gaming console. XOM works as a great short. The fact that the refiners can´t seem to push through even with oil so high leads him to conclude that stocks simply “don´t want to go higher right now.’
  
Najarian is still bullish on the oil services sector, which is not dependent on the price of oil the way the refiners are. There was some panic to get out and take profits in the service names but all their numbers should remain outstanding. He also sees safety in Big Pharma. He thinks the drug companies want to improve their pipelines and could acquire a biotech to do it. He speculates that AMLN, BIIB and ISIS could all be takeover targets.
  
Macke recommended buying pharmaceutical stocks over biotech stocks because he feels they aren´t as speculative. When the market is as volatile as it is, Macke likes the security pharma provides despite the
potential of less lucrative gains.
  
4. THE INDUSTRIALS
  
The headline: Industrial Stocks – the Best Friends of Global Growth – Take Major Hit Friday
  
 Adami thinks the market sold it off in sympathy with CAT and other industrial names that seriously underperformed. He says HON only missed estimates by a penny and raised its guidance –
but the stock got trounced. HON around $55 is a buy.
  
Adami says SLB, the oil services giant, took a hit and will probably see more downside, but he would still buy it.
  
5. POPS AND DROPS FOR THE WEEK
  
BIIB popped 16%: Najarian doesn´t think this stock is going much higher.
  
UNP popped 3%: Adami said he still likes the rails.
  
NUE popped 5%: Adami revealed there´s a lot of takeover chatter in steel stocks.
  
IBM dropped 5%: Macke said not to buy the dip.
  
COF dropped 12%: Finerman “I wouldn´t touch it with a ten foot pole’.
  
EBAY dropped 8%: Macke recommended getting long EBAY in the mid-30´s.
  
GS dropped 7%: Adami recommended buying the pullback at $215.
  
SNDK dropped 10%: Najarian speculated that Intel could be interested in a takeover.
  
6. YOUR FIRST MOVE FOR MONDAY
  
Macke recommended getting long INTC.
  
Adami says to short XOM.
  
Finerman preferres MO.
  
Najarian says AAPL was a buy ahead of earnings.

   News and Events Digest

Breaking News

Investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. and Chinese bank Citic Securities Co. said Monday they will form a strategic partnership that includes $1 billion in cross-investments and the creation of a new Asian joint venture.
Citic, which is owned by the investment arm of the Chinese government, will invest in Bear Stearns through 40-year convertible trust preferred securities that will convert to about 6 percent of Bear Stearns' outstanding shares. Citic could potentially increase the stake to 9.9 percent. - AP

Drugmaker Sanofi-Aventis (SNY) said its Taxotere cancer treatment had received a positive opinion from the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) recommending approval in the European Union for induction treatment for locally advanced head and neck cancer. - Reuters

Driven in part by what analysts call a halo effect from the iPod and the iPhone, the market share of Apple Inc.'s (AAPL) personal computers is surging and Steven P. Jobs, Apple's chief executive, said the Macintosh has "momentum," the New York Times reported on its Web site Monday. - MarketWatch

Media Summary:

According to Reuters, Halliburton (HAL) increased its third quarter profit by 19%.

The Wall Street Journal writes that KKR and Goldman Sachs will cancel their takeover of Harman (HAR), but make an investment in the company to avoid a lawsuit.

The Wall Street Journal also writes that Sandisk (SNDK) will begin o sell a small storage device so consumers can move video from PC to TV.

The Wall Street Journal writes that an ITC judge ruled that Nokia's (NOK) patent complaint against Qualcomm (QCOM) should he dropped.

The New York Times writes that Apple's (AAPL) Mac sales are surging and the company plans several years of software upgrades to feed the increase.

The NYT says that a new poll indicates Americans are still willing to buy Chinese products.

The FT writes that a number of financiers want transparency into the securities that a new super-fund may be buying so that they do not get artificial pricing.

CNNMoney writes that the UAW deal with Chrysler is in trouble.

M&A Activity:

Kohlberg Kravis Roberts and Goldman Sachs (GS) will cancel their $8 billion takeover for Harman International (HAR) but invest $400 million in convertible notes that the audio systems maker will use for a stock buyback, the companies said Monday. KKR and Goldman won't be sued and won't have to pay a termination fee under the agreement struck. Brian Carroll, a member of KKR, will join Harman's board of directors. "Although we do not agree with the reasons for cancellation of the original merger agreement, we view this $400 million investment as a vote of confidence in our business and its prospects for continued growth," said Sidney Harman, executive chairman of Harman. - MarketWatch

IPO Central:

IPOs on schedule for the week of 10/22/2007:

BioHeart (BHRT). The company is a biotechnology company focused on using cells derived from a patient's body for treatment of heart damage. The company is selling 4.2M shares at the initial range between $6-$8. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $0M and Net Income of $(-13)M. The Lead Managers is Merriman and Dawson James is Co-Manager. BioHeart (BHRT) is headquartered in Sunrise, FL and their website is www.bioheartinc.com.

CVR Energy (CVI). The company is a Midwest refiner of transportation fuels and producer of fertilizer products. The company is selling 18.5M shares at the initial range between $18-$20. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $2,955M and Net Income of $17M. The Lead Managers are Goldman Sachs and Deutsche. CVR Energy (CVI) is headquartered in Sugar Land, TX and their website is www.coffeyvillegroup.com.

Cypress Sharpridge Investments (CYS). The company is a REIT that primarily invests in agency residential mortgage-backed securities. The company is selling 18M shares at the initial range between $7-$8. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $48M and Net Income of $1M. The Lead Managers are Bear Stearns, Friedman Billings, and UBS. Cypress Sharpridge Investments (CYS) is headquartered in New York, NY and their website is www.cypresssharpridge.com.

FGX International Holdings (FGXI). The company Sells non-prescription reading glasses and sunglasses under the FosterGrant and Magnivision brands. The company is selling 8.3M shares at the initial range between $14-$16. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $194M and Net Income of $(-10)M. The Lead Managers are William Blair and Suntrust. FGX International Holdings (FGXI) is headquartered in Smithfield, RIBritish Virgin Islands and their website is www.fgxi.com.

Fuqi International (FUQI). The company is a Chinese designer of precious metal jewelry. The company is selling 6.4M shares at the initial range between $7-$9. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $96M and Net Income of $5M. The Lead Managers is Merriman and Brean Murray is Co-Manager. Fuqi International (FUQI) is headquartered in Shenzhen, China and their website is www.fuqi.com.cn.

   Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:

Airlines
 CPA Goldman Sachs Downgraded to Neutral

Bond Funds
 IMB IndyMac Banc Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Equal-weight to Underweight

Broadband Svcs
 CLWR Clearwire Jefferies & Co Upgraded from Hold to Buy $34 to $24

Business Services
 IPG Interpublic Bear Stearns Upgraded from Peer Perform to Outperform
 RX IMS Health Friedman Billings Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform $27 to $29
 RHI Robt Half Banc of America Sec Downgraded from Buy to Neutral

Computer Hardware
 RSYS RadiSys Cantor Fitzgerald Upgraded from Hold to Buy $11 to $18
 XRX Xerox Citigroup Upgraded from Sell to Hold
 AAPL Apple Caris & Company Price Target Raised Above Average $175 to $200

Computer Software
 CTXS Citrix Systems Deutsche Securities Upgraded from Hold to Buy $43 to $49
 TIBX TIBCO Software Jefferies & Co Price Target Raised Hold $7.50 to $10
 PTIX Performance Tech Roth Capital Coverage Dropped

Educational Services
 UTI Universal Technical Institute Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Equal-weight to Underweight

Environmental Prod
 SRCL Stericycle JP Morgan Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight
 FTEK Fuel-Tech Merriman Curhan Ford Downgraded from Neutral to Sell
 MPR Met-Pro Corp Brean Murray Downgraded from Buy to Hold

Finance Companies
 CFC Countrywide Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Equal-weight to Underweight
 COF Capital One Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight

Foods
 HSY Hershey Foods Bernstein Upgraded from Underperform to Mkt Perform

Gold and Silver Mining
 AAUK Anglo American Citigroup Downgraded from Buy to Hold

Healthcare
 ANPI Angiotech Pharm RBC Capital Mkts Downgraded from Outperform to Sector Perform
 ANPI Angiotech Pharm CIBC Wrld Mkts Downgraded from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform $10.75 to $5.75
 KNDL Kendle Robert W. Baird Downgraded from Outperform to Neutral $47 to $46
 SEPR Sepracor UBS Downgraded from Neutral to Sell

Healthcare Equipment
 CYNO Jeffries Would be buyer here $45
 NXTM Nxstage Medical JMP Securities Initiated at Mkt Outperform $17
 BSX Boston Scientific Caris & Company Cut Price Target Above Average $18 to $16

Healthcare Facilities
 RTSX Radiation Therapy Services Deutsche Securities Downgraded from Buy to Hold $29 to $32.50

Household Goods
 SCSS Select Comfort Northland Securities Cut Price Target Outperform $20 to $16

Industrial Equipment
 AME Ametek Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Mkt Perform $46 to $47

Insurance
 PMI PMI Group Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Overweight to Underweight
 MTG MGIC Investment Lehman Brothers Resumed Coverage Underweight
 RDN Radian Group Lehman Brothers Resumed Coverage Underweight

Manufacturing
 PH Parker-Hannifin Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Mkt Perform $77 to $80

Medical Products
 OMPI Obagi Medical Susquehanna Financial Initiated at Positive

Mining Non-Ferr Metal
 RTP Rio Tinto PLC Citigroup Downgraded from Buy to Hold

Oil and Gas
 SLB Schlumberger Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Outperform $118 to $124
 ENP Encore Energy RBC Capital Mkts Initiated at Outperform $26
 ASH Ashland Credit Suisse Downgraded from Neutral to Underperform $69 to $66
 BHP BHP Limited Citigroup Downgraded from Buy to Hold

Regional Banks
 CATY Cathay Bancorp Friedman Billings Downgraded from Mkt Perform to Underperform $32 to $25
 WM Washington Mutual Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight
 BBT BB&T Corp Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $44 to $38
 BPOP Popular Inc Kaufman Bros Cut Price Target Hold $13 to $10
 EWBC East West Banc Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $41 to $37
 FITB Fifth Third Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Underperform $33 to $28
 UB UnionBanCal Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $65 to $56
 ZION Zions Bancorp Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $75 to $65

Restaurants
 APPB Applebee's Wachovia Downgraded from Mkt Perform to Underperform

Retail Trade
 OSTK Overstock.com Piper Jaffray Upgraded from Underperform to Market Perform
 GME Gamestop Nollenberger Capital Price Target Raised Buy $60 to $68
 DFS Discover Financial Services Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight
 DLTR Dollar Tree JP Morgan Downgraded from Neutral to Underweight
 RBA Ritchie Bros. CIBC Wrld Mkts Downgraded from Sector Perform to Sector Underperform $63 to $65

Savings & Loan
 NNI Nelnet Friedman Billings Downgraded from Mkt Perform to Underperform $24 to $18
 BRKL Brookline Bancorp Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $12 to $11
 FHN First Horizon Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $32 to $25

Solar Energy
 JASO JA Solar CIBC Wrld Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Outperform $44 to $61

Telecommunications
 NVTL Novatel Wireless Morgan Joseph Upgraded from Hold to Buy $32
 IIVI II-VI Inc Broadpoint Capital Price Target Raised Buy $35 to $40