Monday Morning, September 24th
SITE NEWS
New IceMD Recording:
Overweight 8 Year Olds Become Heart Risks as Teens;
Featured presentation by International Commercial Television (ICTL)
Ice Cold Stocks Presents the
International Commercial Television (ICTL)
Conference
Ice Cold Stocks is hosting a conference call that features a presentation by International Commercial Television (ICTL) and their co-founder Tim Crosby.
Topics covered will include but are not be limited to:
Covering the companies 1646% growth in Revenue in 2007 and sustainability
Outlining corporate startegy to increase brand awareness and distribute World Wide
Providing fiscal and corporate outlook for the next year
You can download the most recent ICTL PowerPoint presentation by clicking here. (http://icecoldstocks.com/pdf/ICTL_presentation.ppt)
After the ICTL presentation, there will be a FREE training course in trading and sales. The training call will cover technical analysis techniques and will be presented by the Swing Man.
The conference is scheduled for Saturday, September 22, at 10:00 EST (7:00 PCT).
To be a part of this free informative conference, call 866-305-2467. The entry code is 155702 #.
Clck here
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Hidden Treasure News:
NNRI News:
Nuclear Power Reactors: EUROPE
As you know, the European law (directive of the European commission 3099) obligates all users of lead to bring the toxic emissions down to ''zero`` by 2010. For nuclear power plants this represents large quantities of lead that need to be replaced and FEECOM/BIECOM is likely to be the major replacement for lead. In Germany alone, there are 17 nuclear utilities with 1,615 metric tons of lead, which is the equivalent of 1,300 metric tons of BIECOM.
The current sales price of BEICOM is between $24 - $33 /kg so 1,300,000 kg would be between $31.2 million and $42.9 million if all the lead at the plants in Germany alone were replaced with BIECOM. This would not come all in one year but this is to show the scope of the need. Besides the 17 nuclear plants in Germany there are 59 in France, 7 in Belgium, 10 in Sweden, 15 in the Ukraine - etc - actually a total of 195 plants in Europe including the non EU countries. NNRF is also in discussions with other utility holding companies in Western Europe and South Korea.
Dow Stock News
The United Auto Workers union set a firm Monday morning deadline to reach a contract with General Motors Corp (GM) and threatened to send 73,000 GM factory workers on strike if no deal is reached. - Reuters
Pfizer Inc. (PFE), the New York drugmaker, was cleared by the European Commission to market Celsentri, a drug designed for adult patients who have been infected only with and treated for CCR5-tropic HIV-1 virus detectable. Celsentri, generically maraviroc, is one of a new class of oral HIV medicines, Pfizer said. The drug works by preventing the virus from entering human cells, rather than fighting HIV inside white blood cells, Pfizer said. - MarketWatch
According to Reuters, the UAW set a strike deadline for today because it cannot reach a job security agreeement with GM (GM).
Barron's reports that GM's (GM) stock could rise to $40, if it reaches a favorable deal with the UAW.
Reuters writes that Microsoft's (MSFT) new video game, Halo 3, received good marks from reviewers.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Microsoft (MSFT) is waging a PR campaign aimed at internet companies and regulators to stop the Google (GOOG) deal to buy Doubleclick.
THe Wall Street Journal writes that Nvidia (NVDA) will challenge Microsoft (MSFT) in the low end graphics chip market.
Ice Man Stocks
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
ENER - 24.30
USU - 10.50
GRP - 57.70
GSOL - 20.65
FLML - 10.17, 10.40
APOL - 59.10
GT - 30
USMO - 17
ANGO - 20.11
Dollar Man Ideas:
FXPE - 3
EGI - 2.52
CRGN - 1.57
VIMC - 5
JRCC - 6
Media Commentators
Cramer's Comments:
Bullish: ZINC, LMC
Ice Cold Commentators
Break Man Video Summary:
Break out buy (or short sell) watch list for short term gains September 24 includes: ALXN, LWAY, MCZ, GILD, VRSN, MA, FSLR, MMM, CELL, YUM, DAR, LKQX, LFC.
Several candidates for break out or short sell plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out (or selling the break down) on good volume and closing at least some on the first day.
Swing Man Market Recap:
It was a wild and productive week for the Bulls. I had been expecting a rate cut of some sort but the 50 basis point move lit a fire under the shorts and provided our market with the best one day move on some indices seen in 5 years. This move on solid volume sets the right side of some impressive basing patterns on the major indices with the expectation of a period of Handle formation to come somewhere off/near our July high area. In addition, the rate cut move lit a fire under many Commodity Groups while the Dollar fell to 10 year lows.
First on the list is the Nasdaq followed by the SP 500 Daily. I've marked off 4 Reversal points on both charts. I expect a 4th reversal move to occur somewhere between current levels and our July high area of 2725 Nasdaq and 1558 SP 500. After 4th reversal moves which serve to set our patterns the expectation is for a period of Handle formation to take shape over the following 2-4 weeks. The type of Handle is impossible to say but Handles in general tend to be mild down moves back to the 20/50 MA area confirmed by a significant contraction in volume along the way. This move serves to revive bearish sentiment, shakes out the last sellers, and unwinds the Oscillators. Unsuspecting traders in general tend to get frustrated during periods of Handle formation unless they recognize it for what it is. Some stocks that are already mature will be able to make breakout moves during this process.
The next chart is that of the Dow. The Dow is setting up similar to other major indices in that a tag of its July high 14k area is still possible short term likely followed by a period of Handle formation. While the major indices are setting up their respective handles many individual stocks and sectors will follow suit thus therefore this period should provide us with some favorable opportunities in both ETF's and Individual Stocks.
Moving onto Sectors, most Commodity Groups took flight over the past week. Gold broke out and tagged its recent high area but is now quite overbought on all timeframes with RSI's well into the 70's. We've included a Steel Sector chart below to show how well that sector chart is mirroring the Indices seen above. The Materials Sector also broke out during the week and after a back test of the broken downtrend line turned higher late week. The Oil Service Index which broke out to All Time High territory on the back of the move in Oil and the Oil Shipping Groups both continue to perform well on balance. The Transports moved higher but were hit mid week by a profit short fall by Federal Express. Financials surged off their bottoms on the rate cut news and many Broker plays hold some significant bottoming potential. The Telecom area also remains interesting technically.
Moving onto Sentiment as expected things unwound quite a bit on the potent move higher over the past few weeks. The SP 500 has moved from 1370 to 1525 over the past 7 weeks thus some unwinding of Sentiment has to be the expectation. The Investors Intelligence Survey came in at a 27% spread of Bulls to Bears putting that measure firmly in the Neutral area. The Commercials which remain long pared some of their positions. Our 21 Day P/C has unwound from 1.20 to 1.03 but is still historically in a relatively high area.
Good Trading.
CNBC Fast Money Review
1. BEST WEEK IN 6 MONTHS
The headline: Investors Basking in Rate Cut Glow, Drive Stocks To Best Weekly Gains Since March.
Dylan Ratigan explains the S&P 500 gained 2.8% this week. Also, weakness from MS and BSC were no match for the strong earnings from ORCL and The Fed rate cut.
Najarian explains that the volatility index has dropped considerably. He feels the global growth story is still working.
Finerman the euphoria feels like it´s over
Macke the market has traded subprime fear for inflation fear.
2. TECH STOCKS
The headline: ORCL Earnings, Bullish PC Growth Forecast Push Tech Shares To Strong Gains This Week
Najarian likes AAPL and INTC as tech plays.
Macke also likes Intel.
Adami prefers MSFT.
3. GOOGLE ALL-TIME HIGH
The headline: GOOG Up, Jumping 9% in September to New Record
Najarian thinks GOOG is poised for a rally. He sees growth for most search engine stocks.
4. DECISION '08: BUY S&P 500 IN '07
Whether it´s Rudy or Hillary next year, the real winner may be the stock market. History shows that the S&P 500 rallies going into an election year. How do you trade it?
Dylan Ratigan explains that since 1931, the S&P has gained 14% in pre-election years.
Adami doesn´t buy this theory but believes the market will do well for the rest of ‘07. He says the trade is defense stocks no matter who wins the White House.
Najarian prefers INTC and TXN because he feels tech does better in the 2nd half of the year.
5. TRADING THE ART OF THE DEAL
KKR, and Goldman walked away from their buyout of stereo maker HAR Friday. Of all the deals announced this summer how many will get done?
Macke says Harman got the rug yanked out from under them. He recommends running away from any M&A trades.
Finerman says not all deals are the same. The most important aspect of any merger agreement, are the terms that can allow a buyer out of a deal. Although the Harman deal fell apart others are more airtight. She says the trade is GCO because she doesn´t feel lawyers can get out of this M&A deal. (Finish Line is buying Genesco)
Najarian likes URI for many of the same reasons. He too believes URI is in a deal that will go through.
6. POPS AND DROPS
T popped 5%: Macke says stay long.
NYX popped 8%: Finerman tells the panel to get long NYX.
RIG popped 8%: Najarian says the service sector is hot.
ORCL popped 10%: Macke likes this stock.
EL popped 6%: Finerman loves this company.
BRCD popped 5%: Adami says they can´t compete with Cisco.
NILE popped 16%: Macke says if you own it, take half off the table.
FDX dropped 5%: Adami calls FDX serial sandbaggers.
FDO dropped 5%: Adami thinks the stock is a buy into earnings.
POOL dropped 14%: Macke says this company is all wet.
7. YOUR FIRST MOVE FOR MONDAY
Macke recommends selling GM.
Finerman likes NYX.
Najarian prefers BJS.
Adami didn´t have a stock pick.
News and Events Digest
Breaking News
Dell plans to sell PCs through China's largest electronics retailer, Gome, in a move to grab more of the global market. - WSJ
Shares of BHP Billiton climbed to a record high in Sydney on Monday and traded strongly in London on a report that the mining giant was expected to announce what's the potentially largest gold resource in the world at its Olympic Dam mine in South Australia. - MarketWatch
GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) said Monday that the European Commission has granted marketing authorization for the company's cervical cancer vaccine Cervarix. The approval follows a positive opinion from the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use in July. - MarketWatch
PetroChina Co. (PTR) won a regulatory OK to list 4 billion new yuan-denominated A shares on the Shanghai stock exchange, according to press reports early Monday. PetroChina disclosed plans to increase production at its Daqing and Changqing fields with money to be raised in the IPO. Underwriters on the deal include China Capital Corp., Citic Securities Co. and UBS. PetroChina shares are already listed in Hong Kong and New York. - MarketWatch
M&A Activity:
Yamana Gold (AUY) said on Monday it has boosted its offer for Meridian Gold (MDG) and Meridian's board has approved the bid, ending an extended and often hostile takeover battle. Yamana boosted the cash component of the offer by 50 Canadian cents to C$7.00 per share. The share component of the offer remains unchanged at 2.235 Yamana common shares for each Meridian common share tendered. - Reuters
Media Summary:
The New York Times writes that Pudding Media will introduce an internet phone service supported by ads which are tailored to what a person is talking about.
The FT writes that Dell (DELL) will sell computers through China's largest electronic retailer.
The FT also reports that internet advertising may continue to grow through a recession.
According to Bloomberg, Government bond traders say the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates again before the end of the year as the economy comes to a standstill.
Reuters writes that Starbucks (SBUX) will give away 50 million songs as part of its launch of a wireless music service with Apple (AAPL).
IPO Central:
Babcock & Brown Air LTD (FLY). The company is a new company formed by Babcock & Brown to acquire and lease commercial aircraft. The company is selling 18.7M shares at the initial range between $22-$24. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $110M and Net Income of $3M. The Lead Managers are Morgan, Citi and Merrill. Babcock & Brown Air LTD (FLY) is headquartered in Dun Laoghaire, CoIreland and their website is www.babcockbrown.com.
Duff & Phelps (DUF). The company Provides independent financial advisory and investment banking services. The company is selling 8.3M shares at the initial range between $16.50-$18.50 The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $286M and Net Income of $10M. The Lead Managers are Goldman and UBS. Duff & Phelps (DUF) is headquartered in New York, NY and their website is www.duffandphelps.com.
Venture Financial Group (VNBK). The company is a new company formed by Babcock & Brown to acquire and lease commercial aircraft. The company is selling 1.8M shares at the initial range between $21-$23 The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $286M and Net Income of $10M. The Lead Managers are Goldman and UBS. Venture Financial Group (VNBK) is headquartered in DuPont, WA and their website is www.venture-bank.com.
ZARS Pharma (ZARS). The company is a Washington state community bank focused on commercial real estate. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $47M and Net Income of $12M. The Lead Managers are Goldman and Merrill. ZARS Pharma (ZARS) is headquartered in Watertown, MA and their website is www.zars.com.
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Aerospace
GR Goodrich UBS Price Target Raised Buy $73 to $77
Biotech
VR Validus Holdings UBS Initiated at Buy $29
SIRT Sirtris Pharma JP Morgan Downgraded from Overweight to Neutral
SIRT Sirtris Pharma Piper Jaffray Downgraded from Outperform to Market Perform
Business Services
CDI CDI Corp Boenning & Scattergood Price Target Raised Market Outperform $36 to $38
Computer Hardware
EMC EMC Corp Citigroup Upgraded from Hold to Buy
EMC EMC Corp Bear Stearns Upgraded from Peer Perform to Outperform
AAPL Apple Citigroup Price Target Raised Buy $160 to $185
FFIV F5 Networks Nollenberger Capital Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
ROK Rockwell Automation JP Morgan Downgraded from Overweight to Neutral
Computer Services
LGBT PlanetOut Merriman Curhan Ford Coverage Dropped
Computer Software
ARBA Ariba Cowen & Co Upgraded from Underperform to Outperform
ADVS Advent Software JMP Securities Price Target Raised Strong Buy $42 to $56
VMW VMware JP Morgan Initiated at Overweight
VMW VMware Citigroup Initiated at Buy $100
VMW VMware UBS Initiated at Buy
RHT Red Hat Credit Suisse Downgraded from Outperform to Neutral
APTM Aptimus Merriman Curhan Ford Coverage Dropped
Electronics
OPTM Optium Jefferies & Co Upgraded from Hold to Buy $12
Gaming Operations
LVS Las Vegas Sands Jefferies & Co Price Target Raised Buy $124 to $163
Healthcare
MAXY Maxygen Stanford Research Upgraded from Hold to Buy $11
Healthcare Equipment
VMSI Ventana Medical Caris & Company Upgraded from Average to Above Average $90
HOLX Hologic CIBC Wrld Mkts Initiated at Sector Outperform $77
KYPH Kyphon Piper Jaffray Downgraded from Outperform to Market Perform
CYTC CYTYC Corp CIBC Wrld Mkts Coverage Dropped
Homebuilders
CHB Champion Susquehanna Financial Coverage Dropped
Industrial Equipment
TKR Timken Citigroup Initiated at Buy $43
Manufacturing
BEC Beckman Coulter Bear Stearns Downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform
PH Parker-Hannifin Friedman Billings Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform $115
USTR United Stationers Susquehanna Financial Coverage Dropped
Mining - Steel & Iron
RS Reliance Steel UBS Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
Multi-National
Banks BCS Barclays PLC Bear Stearns Downgraded from Peer Perform to Underperform
Oil and Gas
ALJ Alon USA Energy Caris & Company Cut Price Target Buy $51 to $48
TSO Tesoro Petroleum Caris & Company Cut Price Target Buy $63 to $60
VLO Valero Energy Caris & Company Cut Price Target Buy $85 to $82
WNR Western Refining Caris & Company Cut Price Target Average $42 to $40
ALJ, TSO, VLO, and WNR are expected to miss 3Q expectations at CRIS
Real Estate
AFR American Financial Realty Trust Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Outperform $14 to $12
ZIPR Ziprealty Nollenberger Capital Coverage Dropped
Regional Banks
ZION Zions Bancorp Rodman & Renshaw Initiated at Mkt Outperform $8
NRIM Northrim Bank Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $32 to $28
REITs
CUZ Cousins Prop Wachovia Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
SLG SL Green Rlty KeyBanc Capital Mkts Upgraded from Hold to Buy $123
Retail Trade
JAS Jo-Ann Stores KeyBanc Capital Mkts Upgraded from Hold to Buy $28
SUSS Susser JP Morgan Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight
MALL PC Mall Northland Securities Price Target Raised Outperform $19 to $20
SUSS Susser Morgan Joseph Price Target Raised Buy $21 to $28
TSCO Citigroup Upgraded to Buy
Savings & Loan
DCOM Dime Community Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Hold to Sell $14
Semiconductors
CREE Cree Morgan Keegan Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform
Solar Energy
LDK LDK Solar CIBC Wrld Mkts Downgraded from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform
Technology - Informtn
MOVE Move Nollenberger Capital Coverage Dropped
Telecommunications
MOT Motorola RBC Capital Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform
JNPR Juniper Networks UBS Price Target Raised Neutral $35 to $37.50
CUB Cubic BB&T Capital Mkts Downgraded from Hold to Underweight
FDRY Foundry Ntwks Nollenberger Capital Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
ADTN ADTRAN Robert W. Baird Cut Price Target Neutral $28 to $24
ADTN ADTRAN Broadpoint Capital Cut Price Target Buy $30 to $28
Transportation
GNK Genco Shipping & Trading Cantor Fitzgerald Price Target Raised Buy $69 to $70