Monday Morning, September 10th
SITE NEWS
New IceMD Recording: Saturated Fats- How Much Is Too Much?
Dow Stock News
According to Reuters, Citigroup (C) will list its shares on the Japanese stock market as early as November.
Reuters reports that AMD (AMD) has launched its Barcelona chip in an effort to improve its competitive position against Intel (INTC).
The New York Times writes that Disney (DIS) will test toys based on its characters to make certain that they are safe.
IBM Lender Business Process Services, Inc. (IBM LBPS), a wholly owned subsidiary of IBM (IBM)specializing in mortgage origination services, announced today that it was recently approved by the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development to conduct mortgage origination services for federally insured Federal Housing Administration (FHA) loans. It has also obtained regulatory approvals and licenses to provide these services in the vast majority of states, and intends to complete the state licensing process by the end of this year.
INTC Intel Nollenberger Capital Initiated at Buy $30
Ice Man Stocks
Breakouts the Ice Man may consider trading:
IRIS - 20
ALNY - 27.20
JRJC - 13.20
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
TMA - 12.80
NBIX - 11
ISIS - 13
PAY - 40
ZMH - 80.05
SAFM - 44.20
SPAR - 15.70
SOLF - 11.20
Depressed stocks the Ice Man may buy:
BEN - 123.70 Gap
DAI - 89.10 Gap
FDX - 104.20 Gap
CROX - 51.25 Gap
Dollar Man Ideas:
TELK
CLWT - 3
CNOA - 2
FMT - 5.10
LEV - closed at the high
NFI - 7
ACA - 7.65
CSAR - 4.15
Media Commentators
Cramer's Comments:
Bullish: NOC, RTN, GD, DIS, CIT
Zacks Investment Research:
Upgrades: AA, GIS, TIF
Zanger Report:
SPX : Would not be surprised if this index goes down to retest the August lows. Oscillator allows for more selling if it wants to.
DRYS - The action on Friday shows how strong this stock is.
EXM another strong shipping stock. A week or so of rest and should be making new highs.
NOV is acting well and some shares could be added on weakness.
OIH is forming the handle of a tight cup and handle pattern (which is sometimes not as reliable as a longer cup and handle of 8-12 weeks). Next buy point is 186 with volume.
RIG next buy point is 110
GRMN wants to run but needs some rest
BIDU will need the market in general to turn positive in order to run.
AAPL is extremely sensitive to the general market now. Avoid for now until it can prove it can fight the tape.
Traders Prophet:
NEW RECOMMENDATIONS (buy the stock or options)
***IF THE MARKET OPENS DOWN HARD WAIT UNTIL IT STABILIZES BEFORE BUYING
The trades below are lower risk and smaller gains than the High Risk.
***BEST BETS*** (have a slightly higher winning percentage)
***Dry Ships (DRYS) buy above 77.25. Target 79-81+. Sep 70 Calls.
***USANA (USNA) buy above 42.60. Target 44-45+. Sep 40 Calls.
ICON PLC (ICLR) buy above 48.25. Target 50-51+. Sep 45 Calls.
Equinix (EQIX) buy above 89. Target 91-93+. Sep 85 Calls.
Alnylam Pharm. (ALNY) buy above 27.25. Target 29-30+. Sep 25 Calls.
Ventana Medical (VMSI) buy above 83.25. Target 85-86+. Sep 80 Calls.
Pediatrix Medical (PDX) buy above 63. Target 65-67+. Sep 60 Calls.
Fresenius Medical (FMS) buy above 50. Target 52-53+. Sep 45 Calls.
Leap Wireless (LEAP) buy above 81.60. Target 83-85+. Sep 75 Calls.
Garmin (GRMN) buy above 105.60. Target 107-109+. Sep 100 Calls.
IF THE MARKETS HEAD LOWER, LOOK AT:
Greenbrier (GBX) sell below 27.30. Target 24-26+. Sep 30 Puts.
CDI Corp. (CDI) sell below 26.30. Target 23-25+. Sep 30 Puts.
Riverbed Technology (RVBD) sell below 39.50. Target 36-38+. Sep 45 Puts.
Crocs (CROX) sell below 56.10. Target 53-55+. Sep 60 Puts.
Sigma Designs (SIGM) sell below 39.35. Target 36-38+. Sep 45 Puts.
Fuel Tech (FTEK) sell below 25.40. Target 22-24+. Sep 30 Puts.
HIGHER RISK MOMENTUM TRADES DUE TO RECENT PRICE MOVEMENT:
Clearwire (CLWR) buy above 26.65. Target 28-30+. Sep 22.50 Calls.
InterDigital (IDCC) buy above 24.70. Target 26-28+. Sep 20 Calls.
IDEXX Labs (IDXX) buy above 115.30. Target 117-119+. Sep 110 Calls.
Verifone (PAY) buy above 36.50. Target 38-39+. Sep 30 Calls.
IF THE MARKETS HEAD LOWER, LOOK AT:
Research in Motion (RIMM) sell below 80. Target 76-79+. Sep 85 Puts.
Priceline.com (PCLN) sell below 77.35. Target 74-76+. Sep 80 Puts.
Deckers Outdoors (DECK) sell below 91.70. Target 88-90+. Sep 95 Puts.
Sandisk (SNDK) sell below 52.40. Target 49-51+. Sep 55 Puts.
Zumiez (ZUMZ) sell below 45. Target 42-44+. Sep 50 Puts.
Siemens (SI) sell below 121.40. Target 118-120+. Sep 125 Puts.
Franklin Resources (BEN) sell below 125.70. Target 122-124+. Sep 130 Puts.
Parker Hannifin (PH) sell below 105. Target 102-104+. Sep 110 Puts.
Mastercard (MA) sell below 129.30. Target 126-128+. Sep 135 Puts.
Greenhill (GHL) sell below 55. Target 52-54+. Sep 60 Puts.
S.L. Green (SLG) sell below 103.30. Target 99-102+. Sep 110 Puts.
Whirlpool (WHR) sell below 92. Target 88-91+. Sep 95 Puts.
AutoZone (AZO) sell below 111.20. Target 107-110+. Sep 115 Puts.
Public Service Enter. (PEG) sell below 82.50. Target 79-81+. Sep 85 Puts.
General Cable (BGC) sell below 54.60. Target 51-53+. Sep 60 Puts.
Trina Solar (TSL) sell below 43.40. Target 40-42+. Sep 50 Puts.
Amrep (AXR) sell below 30. Target 27-29+. Sep 35 Puts.
China Aluminum (ACH) sell below 61. Target 57-60+. Sep 65 Puts.
Ice Cold Commentators
Break Man Video Summary:
Break out buy (or short sell) watch list for short term gains September 10 includes: RGLD, MOGN, HMSY, JRCC, LIFC, KGC, PAY, AOB, FDG, ALNY, TIBX.
Several candidates for break out or short sell plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out (or selling the break down) on good volume and closing at least some on the first day.
CNBC Fast Money Review
1. DOW PLUNGES 250 POINTS
The headline: Stocks Drop Friday, Pushing Dow to Weekly Loss on Weak Jobs Report. Friday revealed the first monthly employment decline in 4 years.
Adami: suggests the trend will continue lower in part because weak jobs growth raises recession fears and that, he says will knock stocks.
Najarian: volatility and the financials are leading The Dow lower.
2. THE WEEK: FINANCIALS
The headline: Financials, Failing To Sustain Rebound Friday, End Week In The Doldrums.
Karen Finerman: BSC and LEH led the financial losers with a 5% loss for the week. She´s preparing for another shoe to drop.
Macke: tells investors sell until you can sleep.
Adami: GS did well through the credit crunch and he thinks they will report record earnings. He says get long GS.
Karen Finerman: doesn´t agree with Guy, at all.
3. THE WEEK: RETAIL
The headline: Retailers End Week As Market's Worst Despite Thursday's Strong Numbers.
Macke: COST tumbled 8% for the week, while TGT slid 7%. He adds the sector is a tough place to be long, right now.
4. THE WEEK: OIL AT $77
The headline: BJ Services, Energy Stocks Break Out As Oil Hovers Around $77.
Najarian: likes the oil service sector, which he feels did well in a rough tape. He likes BJS, HAL, and BHI.
Adami: he´s bullish on energy.
Macke: he´s a seller of crude.
5. How Low Will Ben Go?
The jobs report Friday gave The Fed every reason to lower rates at its next meeting on September 18. Futures markets place a 75% chance that The Fed will cut by half a percentage point. How low will Ben go and what's the trade as he cuts?
Macke: believes Friday´s jobs data will effectively compel The Fed to cut rates. He´s anticipating 50 basis points. He recommends selling the financials as soon as The Fed announces.
Karen Finerman: reminds the panel that much could happen between now and the Fed Meeting
Dylan Ratigan: suggests a rate cut is probably priced into stocks already.
6. Take A Load Off, Fannie
Fannie Mae, a government chartered corporation created to foster lending in the mortgage market, was up mysteriously Friday while the rest of the financials suffered. What's behind this move?
Najarian: believes the pop hinges on a statement from Hank Paulson. In it Paulson reveals that he´s talking with FNM and FRE about the issues they face and how the economy can get running again. Pete says he´s a buyer on the news.
Karen Finerman: thinks these are good times for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac because “they can buy paper at a decent spread.’ However she doesn´t recommending buying these stocks, yet.
7. Pops and Drops
KFT popped 3%: Karen Finerman says it´s all working for KFT and she likes the story.
NWS popped 3%: Macke says NWS is a family company that will be just fine.
FCX popped 4%: Adami says he still likes this stock and thinks it´s going to $115.
NTO popped 22%: Guy Adami says there´s a lot of M&A activity around this stock.
HOG dropped 10%: Najarian says stay away from HOG.
AAPL dropped 7%: Najarian believes Apple will survive.
KKD dropped 41%: Karen Finerman doesn´t know what to say!
FIZZ dropped 12%: Macke says get out.
AA dropped 3%: Adami likes this stock.
HD dropped 8%: Karen Finerman says HD is a long-term play and she still likes this stock.
TGT dropped 7%: Macke says retail stocks are defenseless against all the bad economic news.
GM dropped 5%: Adami is skeptical of this stock.
8. Your First Move For Monday
Macke: NYT is a sell.
Adami: recommends shorting DOG.
Najarian: likes BQI as a way to play the oil sands of Western Canada.
Karen Finerman: doesn´t have a stock pick.
News and Events Digest
Breaking News
British billionaire Joseph Lewis has taken a 7 percent stake in Bear Stearns Cos Inc (BSC) snapping up about $860 million worth of the investment bank's stock. - Reuters
Blackstone Group (BX) said it will invest up to $600 million into China National Bluestar, a unit of ChemChina, for a 20% stake. Blackstone said continued economic growth will drive long term growth in China's chemical sector. UBS advised ChemChina while Merrill Lynch advised Blackstone. - MarketWatch
The Japanese economy contracted at the fastest pace in more than four years in the second quarter, raising concerns that what's been a corporate-led recovery may be losing steam as capital expenditures also fell sharply. - MarketWatch
Japanese stocks fell sharply Monday, reacting to a sell-off on Wall Street in the previous session and weak economic data released early in the day, with exporters such as Sony Corp. and financials such as Mizuho Financial Group leading the decline. - MarketWatch
German semiconductor company Infineon Technologies AG (IFX) said Monday it will provide security chips to the largest patient health smart card project in the U.S.
The deal is for the supply of 1.2 million security chips over the coming 18 months. - MarketWatch
Baker Hughes Inc.,(BHI) the Houston energy-drilling-services provider, reported that in August, 1,804 drilling rigs were in use in the U.S., up 27, or 1.5%, from July and up 66, or 3.8%, from August 2006. Internationally, 1,009 rigs were in use in August down 9, or less than 1%, from July and up 55, or 5.8%, from the year-earlier month. Worldwide in August, 3,156 rigs were in use, up 12, or less than 1%, from July and down 18, or less than 1%, from the year-earlier month. - MarketWatch
Media Summary:
Reuters writes that Capgemini, Europe's largest computer consultancy, will start to incorporate Google (GOOG) Apps into its offerings for clients.
Reuters reports that most OPEC ministers support holding oil prices at current levels.
Reuters writes that Australian authorities are looking into Google's bid for Doubleclick due to concerns about antitrust.
The Wall Street Journal writs that KKR is willing to make concessions to its banks on its purchase of First Data (FDC) agreeing to performance criteria on First Data's debt.
The Wall Street Journal writes that Yahoo! (YHOO) has considered outsourcing its search functions to Google (GOOG).
The Wall Street Journal writes that PC maker Lenovo will introduce laptop and desktop computers for its new consumer segment.
The FT writes that hedge funds are concerned about large redemptions in September due to poor August performance.
The FT reports that credit agencies could face lawsuits over their ratings of sub-prime debt.
Barron's writes that Berkshre Hathaway (BRK.A) was the most admired company in recent poll of professional investors.
IPO Central:
IPOs on schedule for week 9/10/07:
Encore Energy Partners LP (ENP). The company is An MLP spinoff of Encore Acquisition's Elk and Permian Basin production properties. The company is selling 9M shares at the initial range between $20-$22. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $82M and Net Income of $18M. The Lead Managers are UBS and Lehman. Encore Energy Partners LP (ENP) is headquartered in Fort Worth, TX and their website is www.encoreenp.com.
IPO News:
Venture Financial Group Inc. on Monday said it plans to raise $40 million in its upcoming initial public offering as the DuPont, Wash. retail banker moves to go public. The bank plans to offer 1.8 million shares at $21-$23 a share for trading under the symbol VNBK. Keefe Bruyette & Woods Inc. and D.A. Davidson & Co. are underwriting the IPO. - MarketWatch
Economic Data:
3:00 Consumer Credit
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Advertising
LAMR Lamar Advertising CL King Upgraded from Accumulate to Strong Buy
Aerospace
EDO EDO Corp Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Outperform $55 to $63
EDO EDO Corp CIBC Wrld Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Outperform $53 to $57
Biotech
AMLN Amylin Pharms Lazard Capital Upgraded from Hold to Buy
VNDA Vanda Pharma Banc of America Sec Initiated at Buy
Bond Funds
IMB IndyMac Banc UBS Cut Price Target Neutral $24 to $22
Business Services
CVG Convergys UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
RVBD THNK Upgraded to Buy
Computer Hardware
RDWR Radware RBC Capital Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform
BCSI Blue Coat Stifel Nicolaus Downgraded from Buy to Hold
PALM Palm Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Equal-weight to Underweight
STX Seagate Tech Matrix Research Downgraded from Hold to Sell
Computer Software
OPNT OPNET Collins Stewart Upgraded from Market Perform to Buy $14
Finance Companies
EEFT Euronet AG Edwards Upgraded from Hold to Buy $35
CFC Countrywide UBS Cut Price Target Neutral $31 to $20
JRT Jer Investors Trust Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Outperform $22 to $18
RSO Resource Capital Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Outperform $19 to $13
Gaming Operations
ISLE Isle of Capri Morgan Joseph Upgraded from Hold to Buy $24
Healthcare
MYL Mylan Labs Credit Suisse Upgraded from Underperform to Outperform
MYL Mylan Labs UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
PRX Par Pharmaceutical Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $29 to $25
ESC Emeritus Corp UBS Initiated at Buy $36
Insurance
AGP Amerigroup Credit Suisse Upgraded from Underperform to Outperform
LFG LandAmerica Fin Keefe Bruyette Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
PRE PartnerRe UBS Initiated at Buy
Medical Equipment
CRDC AG Edwards Downgraded to Sell
CRDC Cardica AG Edwards Downgraded from Buy to Sell
Mining - Steel & Iron
MT Arcelor Mittal Citigroup Downgraded from Buy to Hold
Oil and Gas
GDP Goodrich Petroleum BMO Capital Markets Upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform $39
MWE MarkWest Energy Wachovia Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
BHI Baker Hughes UBS Initiated at Buy
HAL Halliburton UBS Initiated at Buy
SLB Schlumberger UBS Initiated at Buy
ESV Ensco Jefferies & Co Downgraded from Buy to Hold $76 to $60
NE Noble Corp Jefferies & Co Downgraded from Buy to Hold $59 to $55
RDC Rowan Cos Jefferies & Co Downgraded from Buy to Hold $47 to $40
Personal Services
CLUB Town Sports Intl CIBC Wrld Mkts Initiated at Sector Outperform $23
Real Estate
NRF Northstar Realty Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Outperform $20 to $16
Recreation
HAS Hasbro JP Morgan Upgraded from Underweight to Neutral
Regional Banks
ZION Zions Bancorp Friedman Billings Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform $94 to $75
REITs
TMA Thornburg Mortg Jefferies & Co Upgraded from Underperform to Hold $12.50
BRT BRT Realty Trust Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $26 to $23
NCT Newcastle Investment Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Outperform $34 to $26
Retail Trade
CBK Christopher & Banks Northland Securities Cut Price Target Outperform $20 to $16
CC DBAB Cut Price Target $11
Savings & Loan
WBS Webster Financial Bear Stearns Upgraded from Underperform to Peer Perform
Semiconductors
AMD Advanced Micro Nollenberger Capital Initiated at Buy $18
ISIL Goldman Sachs Downgraded to Sell
Specialty Funds
MVC MVC Capital RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Perform $19 to $18
Telecommunications
IDCC Interdigital Comm Boenning & Scattergd Price Target Raised Market Outperform $35 to $37
QCOM Qualcomm Am Tech/JSA Resrch Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
AVNX Avanex Roth Capital Cut Price Target Buy $3.40 to $2.20
____________________
Nuclear Article:
Putin Signs To Double Russian Nuclear Power
President Vladimir Putin has signed to double Russia's nuclear energy by building 26 major new nuclear power plants. Also, Russia plans to export more than 60 nuclear plants in the next 20 years.
The Kremlin has ordered ambitious nuclear expansion plans to be rapidly implemented and this will include the construction of the world's first floating nuclear power plant.
Although some critics of the scheme claim that some of the plants that are going to be built, will use uranium enriched to almost weapons-grade level will cause a proliferation risk, there seems to be no stopping the Kremlin on this one.
"Russia's economy is growing faster than anyone predicted; it's outrunning the capacities of our energy sector," says Vladimir Fortov, director of the official Institute of High Energy Physics in Moscow. "We're already starting to feel shortages of electricity, even in the Moscow region."
This expansion is happening partly due to a shift in public opinion, the threat of global warming, and increasing economic pressures. Currently about 15 percent of Russia's electricity comes from nuclear power but President Putin wants to increase that to 25 percent or more by 2030.
To cope with this new wave of plants, the Russian government recently ordered over thirty nuclear related companies to merge together into a single state owned entity, that will have total control of every aspect of the nuclear industry, from uranium mining to the decommissioning of reactors.
This Russian nuclear giant, is going to be called Atomenergoprom (Atomic Energy Industry Complex), is similar to the other large conglomerates that the Putin administration has set up in sectors such as aircraft production, arms exports, electricity, and gas.
Gennady Pshakin, director of the independent Center for Non-Proliferation said that, "I hope Putin has taken steps to avoid a second Gazprom."
Well in our humble opinion it looks as if Putin is trying to replicate Gazprom as best he can. By creating large state companies controlling vast amounts of resources the government has given themselves tremendous power, both domestically and perhaps more importantly in the international arena as well.
The online newspaper Gazeta.ru, said that 70 percent of Russians say they're strongly against any atomic station in their own neighbourhood. Russia is a vast country and we are confident that somewhere in that mass of land will be an area that will be suitable for a nuclear power plant. One must bear in mind that to a small remote village, a nuclear power plant or two will literally and economically give the area an energy boost. We may even see towns or even small cities springing up from nowhere across Russia as nuclear power expands, as Magnitogorsk is did in the 1930's with the steel industry expanding.
Currently, Russia is building more nuclear power plants abroad than any one else, constructing facilities in Iran, China, India, and Bulgaria. They are also in talks with many other developing countries about the possibility of building reactors. As for the floating reactors, Russian experts say the units have been offered to Persian Gulf states, where they could be used to run desalination plants, as well as to such countries as Indonesia, Algeria, Malaysia, and Argentina.
This is probably one of the best political moves that Russia, or any other country has made so far this year. By embarking on a rapid nuclear expansion program, Russia is securing its supply of energy and therefore protecting economic growth. Similar moves have already begun in China and India as these three nations gradually emerge as the superpowers of the twenty first century.
Although this plan is aggressive, it is likely that this is only the beginning and Russia will be building far more than 26 reactors in years to come.