Monday Morning, August 13th
Brokerage Opinion:
Morgan Stanley is advising clients to move back into equities.
Hidden Treasure News:
**THE ICE MAN THINKS NNRF WILL BE THE STOCK OF THE WEEK.**
SITE NEWS
Ice Cold Stocks has upgraded the Investor Tools section of the site. Get expanded information on the Major Indices, Market Movers, Market Sectors, Mutual Funds, and Market Summary. Find valuable information on futures -- energy, metals, currencies, and bank and treasury rates.
In addition, use our new set of financial calculators. Keep track of you stocks with My Watchlist and My Portfolio. All these tools are free. The link to the upgraded section is on the menu at Ice Cold Stocks.com on the left-hand side. Look for Investor Tools."
New IceMD Recording:
Vitamin A For Eyesight;
Dow Stock News
GM - a decision to rent a battery for an electric car could push GM past Toyota ( TM) for #1 seller or “clean’ technology vehicles.
The Wall Street Journal reports that AMD (AMD) and Intel (INTC) are intensifying their race to make more powerful multi-core chips.
The New York Times writes that Halo 3, a new video game, could drive Microsoft (MSFT) Xbox sales coming into the holidays.
FT writes that GM (GM) may allow customers to rent batteries for its new Chevy Volt car.
JPM JP Morgan Chase Deutsche Securities Upgraded from Hold to Buy $60
Ice Man Stocks
Breakouts the Ice Man may consider trading:
FLR - 123
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
GROW - 25.60
CC - 11.60
INXI - 10
Depressed stocks the Ice Man may buy:
GRMN - 92.70 Gap
GE - 35.90 Gap
HON - 49.10 Gap
WHR - 90.35 Gap
NIHD - 70
Dollar Man Ideas:
NFI - 7
RNWK - 6.25
Media Commentators
Cramer's Comments:
Was a recap Show from June on company valuations.
Ice Cold Commentators
Break Man Video Summary:
Break out buy (or short sell) watch list for short term gains August 13 includes: ISRG, AAPL, AKS, ARRO, ATR, GIL, LBTYK, SNUS, TCPS, ENCY, WINN.
Several candidates for break out or short sell plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out (or slling the break down) on good volume and closing at least some on the first day. http://stocktiger.com
CNBC Fast Money Review
1. DOW RECOVERS FROM 213-POINT SLIDE
The headline: Credit Crunch Worsens, Hedge Fund Losses Mount, But Fed Stabilizes Stock Market; Is It On Sound Footing Or Is Fed Just Propping It Up?
Najarian: If you look at the XLF or any of the major indices, they weren´t struggling that bad. People are nervous, but this was an overreaction on the Fed´s part.
Adami: Thinks the Dow won´t bottom until 12,700, but there are still “great opportunites’ to buy. This market still comes down to earnings, and so far earnings have been solid.
Macke: The Fed “solved nothing’ The $38 billion of injected liquidity was a “lousy investment’ and investors still need more information before they can sort things out.
Tim Seymour: Thinks the problems with hedge funds are not over and more will show up next week.
Najarian: Doesn´t see relief from the volatility for two more weeks. These systems tend to run through the whole cycle, and they typically last at least four weeks – so investors should expect, at a minimum, another two weeks of wide volatility.
2. FINANCIALS
The headline: Despite The Headlines, the XLF Is Up Nearly 4% For The Week; Bloomberg: Global Bank Shares Are At Cheapest In More Than A Decade. Many of the big financials actually ended the week unchanged or up.
Najarian: "That´s why I think this was a panic situation." Despite everything, some of the financials are working.
Tim Seymour: Until the financials show more transparency. We don´t know how bad the financials have it, “It´s impossible to value these guys here.’
Adami: Likes AXP
3. The Top 3
1. Fed's Next Move
After 3 so-called liquidity injections, The Federal Reserve said Friday it will pump enough money into the credit crunch to keep financial markets functioning normally. Is there a chance that Bernanke may take the more extreme step of cutting interest rates?
Senior Economics Correspondent Steve Liesman joins the guys for this conversation. Here are excerpts from what was said.
There´s a lot of misinformation swirling on The Street. The Fed is attempting to get banks “unfrozen.’ In other words, banks don't trust other banks right now, and The Fed is trying to get them to do business with one another. Says pointing fingers and laying blame doesn´t do any good and compares the credit crunch to a burning house. “It doesn´t matter who set the fire,’ he says, “just get everyone out of the house and worry about who set the fire, later.’
2. Can The Consumer Save Us
Retailers will close out earnings season next week with companies such as WMT and HD Department stores and mall retailers are also scheduled to give results. Will consumer companies help stabilize this market?
Macke: Stay away from WMT and HD. The play is COST and TGT on any dip.
Najarian: Agrees
3. On The Farm
The USDA came out with a report Friday that´s projecting this year farmers will grow the biggest corn crop in history. Fertilizer firm POT traded up Friday. Potash Chief Executive William Doyle joined the guys for a conversation. Here are excerpts from what was said.
"We see farmers around the world having record income years, There´s a lot of money being made on the farm and that translates very well for our business.’One thing that a farmer will never give up is the fertility of the farm,’ says Doyle. “Once you lose the fertility you need to move because you can´t grow anything… so farmers don´t scrimp on their land. They protect their land.’
Dylan Ratigan asks the guys what they think of this stock?
Macke: Is skeptical
Najarian, Adami and Seymour all like it.
4. TECH SHARES
The headline: CSCO, BRCM, Tech Stocks Among This Week´s Better Performers
Najarian: Telecom is growing and it´s doing so through the network names like CSCO and JNPR. Keep an eye on e-commerce, YHOO and EBAY.
Macke: Bullish on tech, with the exception of Yahoo
5. GOLD
The headline: Is Gold ETF (GLD) A Good Bet If Fed Cuts, Dollar Falls? Gold Prices End Week Flat But GG and ABX Jump.
Adami: If a rate cut happened, it would probably “obliterate’ the dollar and people would turn to gold. Would buy GLD.
Tim Seymour: Central banks across the world are diversifying out of the U.S. dollar and into precious and hard metal reserves. There´s no better reason to buy GLD
6. The Final Word. Your First Move For Monday
Macke: Likes ELY
Najarian: prefers IVN
Adami: HLT is a buy
Tim Seymour: recommends X
News and Events Digest
Breaking News
Sigma Designs (SIGM) a maker of digital media processors, on Friday filed a proposal with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to sell 4 million shares of its common stock in a public offering. - Reuters
Motorola Inc. (MOT) sealed contracts worth $394 million in the first half of the year to supply telecoms gear to China Mobile (CHL), the larger of China's two wireless carriers, the firms said on Monday. - Reuters
Sears Holdings Corp. on Monday raised its repurchase program by $500 million.
The department store chain operator said it will now buy back up to an additional $1.5 billion of its common shares. Last month the company said it would repurchase up to $1 billion of its stock. The new buyback is in addition to the $19 million worth of shares that remain available for repurchase under its current buyback program. Sears had about 143.6 million shares outstanding as of Friday. - AP
Investment bank Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) said on Monday it and outside investors would pour $3 billion of new capital into Goldman's Global Equity Opportunities fund, a long-short quantitative hedge fund hurt by recent market volatility. - Reuters
Blue Coat Systems, Inc. (BCSI) a leader in WAN Application Delivery and Secure Web Gateway, today announced that Wakefield Health Limited in Wellington, New Zealand, has selected Blue Coat® ProxySG® appliances to accelerate its new SilentOne electronic document management system and also the delivery of email and files across its Wide Area Network (WAN). The Blue Coat appliances control and accelerate applications between the main data center at Wakefield Hospital and its other hospitals, with increases in performance of over 600%.
NASA has awarded defense contractor Alliant Techsystems Inc. $1.8 billion to develop a motor for the Orion capsule, which will replace the space shuttle and be able to reach the moon and Mars, the company said. - AP
Media Summary:
According to Reuters, Asian central banks put $5.1 billion into the credit markets on Monday to calm fears.
Reuters writes that Motorola (MOT) won $394 million worth of contracts to supply telecom gear to China Mobile (CHL).
The Wall Street Journal writes that Qwest (Q) named former Ameritech CEO Edward Mueller as its new head.
Barron's writes that demand for fiber optics could drive up profits at Corning (GLW).
M&A Activity:
The world's No.2 soft drink firm PepsiCo (PEP) has agreed to buy Russia's top juice maker Lebedyansky (LBDO.MM) for $1.5-2 billion to boost its modest Russian juice market share, a newspaper reported on Monday. - Reuters
Midwest Air Group (MEH) said it will pursue a takeover offer, likely to exceed $400 million, from U.S. private equity firm TPG Capital, which includes a passive investment from the U.S. No 5 airline Northwest Airlines. - Reuters
IPO Central:
IPOs on schedule for week of 8/13/2007:
Cumberland Pharmaceuticals (CPIX). The company sells specialty pharmaceuticals to the hospital and gastroenterology markets. The company is selling 6.3M shares at the initial range between $14-$16. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $18M and Net Income of $4M. The Lead Manager is UBS and Jefferies is Co. Manager. Cumberland Pharmaceuticals (CPIX) is headquartered in Nashville, TN and their website is www.cumberlandpharma.com.
CCS Medical (CCSM). The company Distributes medical supplies to patients living with diabetes, respiratory and other chronic conditions. The company is selling 10M shares at the initial range between $14-$16. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $473M and Net Income of $(-12)M. The Lead Managers are Lehman and Goldman. CCS Medical (CCSM) is headquartered in Clearwater, FL and their website is www.ccsmed.com.
Cosan Limited (CZZ). The company is the largest Brazilian producer of sugar and ethanol. The company is selling 100M shares at the initial range between $17.04-$17.04. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $1,679M and Net Income of $346M. The Lead Managers Goldman, Credit Suisse, and Morgan Stanley. Cosan Limited (CZZ) is headquartered in Sao Paulo, SPBrazil and their website is www.cosan.com.br.
Tully's Coffee (TULY). The company operates coffeehouses in the Western United States and sells coffee wholesale. The company is selling 3.5M shares at the initial range between $10-$12. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $59M and Net Income of N/A. The Lead Manager is KeyBanc Capital and D.A. Davidson is Co. Manager. Tully's Coffee (TULY) is headquartered in Seattle, WA and their website is www.tullys.com.
VMware (VMW). The company is the Leading provider of virtualization software to over 20,000 organizations. The company is selling 100M shares at the initial range between $23-$25. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $704M and Net Income of $87M. The Lead Managers Citi, J.P. Morgan, and Lehman Brothers. VMware (VMW) is headquartered in Palo Alto, CA and their website is www.vmware.com.
ICA Fluor, the industrial engineering, procurement and construction company, jointly owned by Fluor Corporation (FLR) and Empresas ICA (ICA), today announced the signing of a contract by a consortium in which ICA Fluor holds a 29 percent interest. The contract is for integrated oil field services at PEMEX's Chicontepec oil field. The total contract value is approximately $1.4 billion (USD) and has a scheduled term of four years. The company will book the new award in the third quarter 2007.
Economic Data:
8:30 Retail Sales
10:00 Business Inventories
Brokerage Opinion
Abbey Joseph Cohen stated that the non-financial companies in the S&P have cash on the balance sheet equal to %10 of their market cap which is double the historical average.
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Advertising
MNST Monster Worldwide Wachovia Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
VCLK ValueClick JP Morgan Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight
Aerospace
LMT Lockheed Martin Banc of America Sec Upgraded from Neutral to Buy $109 to $110
Apparel
KWD Kellwood Morgan Keegan Upgraded from Underperform to Mkt Perform
Biotech
BIIB Biogen Idec BWS Financial Price Target Raised Buy $52 to $64
ALNY Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Needham & Co Downgraded from Buy to Hold
VPHM Piper Jaffrey Cut Price Target $13
Business Services
NCMI National Cinemedia JP Morgan Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight
NCMI National Cinemedia Deutsche Securities Upgraded from Hold to Buy $27 to $28
Chemicals
CMP Compass Minerals Intl JP Morgan Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight
SYT Syngenta Lehman Brothers Upgraded from Equal-weight to Overweight
Computer Hardware
ARW Arrow Elec Citigroup Upgraded from Hold to Buy
AVT Avnet Citigroup Upgraded from Hold to Buy
BCSI Blue Coat Roth Capital Price Target Raised Buy $45 to $58
DBD Diebold KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Downgraded from Buy to Hold
Computer Software
BEAS BEA Systems Bear Stearns Upgraded from Peer Perform to Outperform
BEAS BEA Systems UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
BEAS BEA Systems Banc of America Sec Upgraded from Neutral to Buy $13 to $14
BMC BMC Software Banc of America Sec Upgraded from Neutral to Buy $33 to $34
CRYP CryptoLogic CIBC Wrld Mkts Upgraded from Sector Underperform to Sector Perform
ELNK EarthLink CIBC Wrld Mkts Upgraded from Sector Underperform to Sector Perform
WBSN Websense Deutsche Securities Upgraded from Hold to Buy $22 to $24
Conglomerate
TXT Textron Credit Suisse Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform $134
Educational Services
CECO Career Education Stifel Nicolaus Upgraded from Hold to Buy $35
STRA Strayer Education Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Outperform $145 to $180
Environmental Prod
CF CF Industries Matrix Research Upgraded from Buy to Strong Buy
Finance Companies
CIT CIT Group CIBC Wrld Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform $52
TINY Harris & Harris First Albany Cut Price Target Buy $17 to $16
Gaming Operations
PENN Penn Natl Gaming Morgan Joseph Upgraded from Hold to Buy $67
LACO Lakes Entertainment Roth Capital Price Target Raised Buy $13 to $13.25
CNTY Century Casinos Roth Capital Downgraded from Buy to Hold $12.50 to $8.50
CNTY Century Casinos Morgan Joseph Cut Price Target Buy $11 to $10
Healthcare
ADLR Adolor Citigroup Upgraded from Sell to Hold
ARRY Array Biopharma Rodman & Renshaw Initiated at Mkt Outperform $18
AVII AVI BioPharma Rodman & Renshaw Cut Price Target Mkt Outperform $7 to $5
BDY Bradley Pharmaceuticals RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Perform $21.50 to $18
ARTC ArthroCare Needham & Co Price Target Raised Buy $52 to $64
ESC Emeritus Corp Stifel Nicolaus Initiated at Buy $33
Homebuilders
DHI DR Horton JP Morgan Downgraded from Overweight to Neutral
Hotels and Motels
HOT Starwood Hotels Matrix Research Upgraded from Sell to Hold
Industrial Equipment
KHD KHD Humboldt Wedag BB&T Capital Mkts Initiated at Buy $72
Internet Svcs-Autos
ABTL Autobytel Northland Securities Initiated at Outperform $5
Major Pharmaceutical
SGP Schering-Plough UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
Manufacturing
ENR Energizer Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Upgraded from Neutral to Buy $125
Mfg - Footwear
CROX Piper Jaffrey Reiterated at Outperform
Mfg - Phosphates
IPHS Innophos Holdings Bear Stearns Upgraded from Peer Perform to Outperform
Mining Non-Ferr Metal
ATI Allegheny Tech Matrix Research Upgraded from Buy to Strong Buy
Multi-National Banks
MI Marshall & Ilsley Stifel Nicolaus Price Target Raised Buy $51 to $52
Oil and Gas
NE Credit Suisse Upgraded to Outperform
EGY Vaalco Energy RBC Capital Mkts Upgraded from Underperform to Sector Perform $5 to $4.50
GSF GlobalSantaFe Jefferies & Co Upgraded from Hold to Buy $83
MRO Marathon Oil Friedman Billings Upgraded from Underperform to Mkt Perform $50
RIG Transocean Jefferies & Co Upgraded from Hold to Buy $115 to $123
WFT Jeffries sees substantial upside in Oil Services sector, including: WFT, GRP, CAM, HLX, OII, and CPX
TPPH Tapestry Pharmaceut Rodman & Renshaw Initiated at Mkt Outperform $5
Paper and Packaging
PTV Pactiv Corp Banc of America Sec Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
SEE Sealed Air Banc of America Sec Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
Pharmaceutical
WCRX Warner Chilcott PLC Roth Capital Price Target Raised Buy $18 to $20
Real Estate
HXM Homex Development Deutsche Securities Upgraded from Hold to Buy
Regional Banks
USB US Bancorp Deutsche Securities Upgraded from Sell to Hold $31
REITs
AMB AMB Property Citigroup Downgraded from Hold to Sell
PLD ProLogis Citigroup Downgraded from Hold to Sell
AHT Ashford Hospitality Trust RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Perform $13 to $12
Restaurants
TAST Carrol's Restaurant Group RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Outperform $18 to $16
Retail Trade
JWN Nordstrom Piper Jaffray Upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform
RDK Ruddick Corp Friedman Billings Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform $35 to $37
Semiconductors
SMTC Semtech Morgan Keegan Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
EMKR Emcore Needham & Co Price Target Raised Buy $7 to $12
SMDI Sirenza Micro CIBC Wrld Mkts Downgraded from Sector Outperform to Sector Perform
FCSE FOCUS Enhancements Roth Capital Cut Price Target Hold $1.50 to $1
Telecommunications
TEO Tele Argentina STET Deutsche Securities Upgraded from Hold to Buy $28
NOK Nokia Oppenheimer Price Target Raised Buy $36 to $39
RIMM UBS Warburg Price Target Raised $280
RIMM Research In Motion UBS Price Target Raised Buy $235 to $280
Transportation
EGLE Eagle Bulk Shipping UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
OSG Overseas Shipholding Credit Suisse Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform $82 to $85
Utilities
FE FirstEnergy Deutsche Securities Upgraded from Hold to Buy $69 to $71
SRE Sempra Energy Deutsche Securities Upgraded from Hold to Buy $63
SRP Sierra Pacific Credit Suisse Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform
BKH Black Hills Corp RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Perform $41 to $46
HE Hawaiian Electric Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Equal-weight to Underweight
INT World Fuel Svcs Calyon Securities Downgraded from Buy to Add $48 to $46