Monday Morning, July 30th
SITE NEWS
New IceMD Recording:
Misconceptions About Cancer Risk Abound;
Hidden Treasure News:
Dow Stock News
Verizon (VZ) said Monday it'll buy Rural Cellular Cop. (RCCC) in a deal valued at $2.7 billion. Verizon will pay $45 a share, a premium of $13.19, or 41% over Rural Cellular's Friday close of $31.81 a share. - MarketWatch
Reuters reports that Boeing (BA) raised its outlook saying India will need over $86 billion in planes over the next 20 years.
XOM Exxon Mobil AG Edwards Upgraded from Hold to Buy
Ice Man Stocks
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
TCHC - 13.50
USO - 58
NLS - 10.25
Depressed stocks the Ice Man may buy:
XOM - 85.20 G
RTP - 264.65 G
PKX - 133.65 G
OI - 35.10 G
RE - 96.80 G
AZN - 51 G
OMTR - 21.30 G
SEPR - 22
CHE - 59.20 G
WHR - 90.50 G
SHLD - 117.30 G
XNG - 474
MDG - 24.50 G
PCU - 105.50 G
YZC - 80 G
MCD - 45.80 G
MO - 64
IBM - 111.10 G
FXI - 122.75 G
BIDU - 183.25 G
FLR - 105.90 G
PTR - 139.65 G
WFR - 57.80 G
NOV - 112.50 G
MRK - 49.05 G
TXN - 32.45 G
NTGR - 27.50 G
TRAN - 4950 (MA)
Dollar Man Ideas:
YTBL - 5.45
TTDS - 2
PXPL - 1.35
UDSG - 0.90
SGN - 0.82
ACA - 6.35
Depressed Dollar
CPCT - 1.50
Media Commentators
Cramer's Comments:
Bullish: PEP, K, NCX, SGP, CELG, EMC, BA, LMT, ADBE
Ice Cold Commentators
Break Man Video Summary:
Break out buy watch list for short term gains July 30 includes: LAVA, BLTI, MDT, JBLU, AMR, NSM, NTAP, NOVL, OC, TIF, ABY, OCR, IVC, INTC, WMAR, WSM, VCLK, NLY.
Several candidates for break out or pullback plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out on good volume and selling at least some on the first day. http://stocktiger.com
Swing Man Market Recap:
CNBC Fast Money Review
1. Worst Week in 5 Years
The headline: Dow Sheds 4% This Week. Tightening Credit Sparks Fear That Dealmaking Is Dead For Now.
Adami: the Dow has another 500 points of downside left. 12700 is his target.
Stacey Briere Gilbert, for Eric Bolling: She wouldn´t be surprised if the market erased its losses for the year in the “next month or so.’
Macke: market´s going lower – 1,460 on the S&P – Thinks there needs to be some fear before getting long stocks.
2. FINANCIALS:
The headline: Financials Tumble On Subprime Fears, Credit Market; WSJ and KKP IPO Delay, More And More Likely As Credit Market Freezes; BX Drops 6% For The Week.
Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson told Dylan that risk is currently being re-priced by the financial markets.
Najarian: Risk is the unknown. Makes him breathe easier when he hears companies discuss their risks publicly. C, CEO talked about the bank´s risk in subprime, saying it´s only around 5% on the high-end. Says he bought GS today.
Stacey: There are better areas to put your money than the banks.
3. HOUSING:
The headline: No End In Sight For Housing As New Home Sales See Worst Decline Since January; Countrywide Spooks Market With News Of Increasing Prime Loan Defaults; BZH and DHI Report Steep Losses.
None of the traders see a bottom in housing yet. When people think their house is worth less, coupled with seeing the market tailspin, they´re going to spend less.
Stacey says: “There are more defaults coming’
4.OIL
The headline: Crude Gains, But Oil Shares Slip On Fears Of Lower Production Capacity.
Guy: Energy stocks broke under stress this week, mostly because they are over-owned. Energy names are so overowned, they move more quickly than other sectors, whether its up or down.
Stacey: Stocks in the sector move relatively parallel to one another, one bad name can take out names across the board.
5. The Top 3
1. A Changing Economy
The U.S. economy is in the middle of change, shifting from a domestic, consumer-based model to becoming more reliant on exports.Our country´s exports grew from $1.01 trillion in the second quarter of 2002 to $1.59 trillion in the second quarter of this year.China is growing at a 10%. Emerging markets are strengthening, the dollar is weakening - some fear the challenge, some see opportunity.
Macke: We are reliant on China, "The only chance we have comes from having entirely free trade, and with China, we have to trade on their terms." “We are dead if you take a protectionist attitude.’
Adami: Some of the tech names are increasing their exposure in China. HPQ and DELL are doing so.
Najarian: Likes the pharma names having international exposure. Also, BA and UTX
Macke: Likes defensive, tech-related companies that have huge multinational growth.
2. Media Stocks
Media companies are a warehouse of public information. From box office receipts to Neilsen ratings, it is relatively easy to model their earnings. Julia Boorstin: DIS, has been a great growth story, seems to be slowing. But since the euro is so strong versus the dollar, the company has been benefiting from a huge amount of foreign traffic in its theme parks. Stacey Briere Gilbert: The options market thinks Disney has the highest risk pricing of all the major media companies. TWX is a turnaround name investors are looking at.
3. Gold
Gold has traditionally been a safe haven in a market like this but it has declined this week, along with everything else.
Stacy Briere Gilbert: Gold names she likes either as stocks or options: AEM, GG, and GOLD. She thinks gold didn´t move this week because people were liquidating their positions – but “gold is going higher.’
6. FINAL TRADE
Your First Move For Monday
Stacey Briere Gilbert: Recommends buying INTC. Adami: NVDA went up both days the market went down. Najarian: Prefers NDAQ for its record volumes. Macke: Get long DIS on a dip.
News and Events Digest
Breaking News
Adobe Software Inc., the maker of Acrobat and Flash software, faces a wave of criticism from printing companies protesting a deal that gives FedEx Kinko's stores a prominent link on Adobe software. The brouhaha could hurt Adobe's standing with important customers and partners and also throw a wrench into FedEx Corp.'s plans to revitalize Kinko's, the copy-and-print chain it bought in 2004. - WSJ
Aruba Networks, Inc. (ARUN), a global leader in secure mobility solutions, today announced that its wireless LANs and security solutions have been selected by the U.S. Air Force for its Combat Information Transport Systems (CITS) program. This aspect of the CITS program is designed to securely network aircraft with the worldwide bases from which they operate and are serviced. The network allows technicians to access aircraft and armament information from the runway, on the flight line, and from hangars, and enables personnel to wirelessly link into any U.S. Air Force base worldwide. Following a detailed technical and cost evaluation of multiple vendors, Aruba was selected for the project based on security, ease of installation, and cost.
CV Therapeutics (CVTX) said Monday it's hiring Lehman Brothers (LEH) Vice Chairman Frederick Frank to review strategic options for the company. - MarketWatch
NVT - Oppenheimer says there is a rumor GRMN is looking to buy
VIVUS, Inc. (VVUS) today announced that it has received US Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") approval for the marketing of Evamist(TM), a metered dose transdermal estradiol spray for the treatment of moderate to severe vasomotor symptoms due to menopause. Evamist is the first estradiol transdermal spray approved by the FDA.
Orthovita Inc. (VITA) will make a $32.5 million equity offering, and expects to receive about $32.2 million in proceeds from the transaction. The Malvern, Pa., spine and orthopedic biosurgery company said the transaction consists of a registered direct offering of about 12.3 million shares of common stock to certain investors. The price is based on a 15% discount to the 30-day volume weighted average price of the common stock immediately before to the date of the definitive offering documents. Orthovita intends to use the proceeds from the offering for product development, sales force expansion, increasing manufacturing capacity, as well as for working capital and other general corporate purposes. Orthovita is also repurchasing from a securitization vehicle arranged by Paul Capital Healthcare a revenue interest on future sales of certain Orthovita products, including Vitoss, Cortoss and certain spinal structural devices. - MarketWatch
KVH industries (KVHI) said Monday it'll buy back up to one million shares of its stock. Based on the closing price of $8.61 a share on Friday, the repurchase will be worth $8.6 million. - MarketWatch
BMC Software (BMC) today announced that the Company's board of directors has authorized the re-purchase of up to $1 billion of the Company's shares.
Barrons:
AMZN - negative article questioning the valuation of Amazon
Byran Ywen is bullish and buying BAC, JPM, and BSC.
Barron's writes that Internap (INAP) and Limelight (LLNW) are taking market share from content deilvery network leader Akamai (AKAM)
Media Summary:
According to Reuters, ABN Amro (ABN) has withdrawn support for a bid from Barclays (BCS)
Reuters writes that Liberty Media (LCACA) may make a bid for UK cable company Virgin Media.
The Wall Street Journal writes taht Adobe (ADBE) is being criticized for a deal with Fedex Kinko which give the office support firm access to some of the software companies applications which could hurt outsets of smaller printing retailers.
The Hew York Times wirtes that the controlling Bancroft faimly has not made a decision about the sale of Dow Jones (DJ).
FT writes that Sony's (SNE) proftts would drop if the yen strenthens.
IPO Central:
IPOs on schedule for week of 7/30/2007:
Amedica (AMCA). The company developing advanced silicon nitride ceramic orthopedic spine and joint implants. The company is selling 4.7M shares at the initial range between $13-$15. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $0M and Net Income of $(-6)M. The Lead Manager is Morgan Stanley and Jefferies is Co. Manager. Amedica (AMCA) is headquartered in Salt Lake City, UT and their website is www.amedicacorp.com.
Concho Resources (CXO). The company is an Oil and natural gas company with operations in New Mexico and West Texas. The company is selling 21.2M shares at the initial range between $14-$16. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $198M and Net Income of $20M. The Lead Managers are J.P. Morgan and Bank of America. Concho Resources (CXO) is headquartered in Midland, TX and their website is www.conchoresources.com.
Dolan Media (DM). The company publishes print and online media intended for professional customers and provides appellate and processing services to the legal profession. The company is selling 10.5M shares at the initial range between $13.50-$15.50. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $198M and Net Income of $20M. The Lead Managers are Goldman Sachs and Merrill Lynch. Dolan Media (DM) is headquartered in Minneapolis, MN and their website is www.dolanmedia.com.
Genpact (G). The company is a global provider of high-quality business and technology services. The company is selling 35.3M shares at the initial range between $16-$18. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $613M and Net Income of $40M. The Lead Managers are Morgan Stanley, Citi, and J.P. Morgan. Genpact (G) is headquartered in Hamilton, HMBermuda and their website is www.genpact.com.
Sucampo Pharmaceuticals (SCMP). The company is a developer of proprietary drugs based on prostones. The company is selling 3.8M shares at the initial range between $14-$16. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $0M and Net Income of $0M. The Lead Manager is Cowen & Co. and CIBC is Co. Manager. Sucampo Pharmaceuticals (SCMP) is headquartered in Bethesda, MD and their website is www.sucampo.com.
M&A Activity:
Malone´s Liberty Global is weighing a bid for Virgin Media, for which Carlyle has already offered $8 billion to $10 billion. - WSJ
Koreas´s Doosan Infracore is set to pay $4.9 billion to Ingersoll-Rand for its Bobcat construction-vehicle business, in the largest foreign purchase yet by a Korean company. - WSJ
Theme park operator Cedar Fair (FUN) is in talks to be taken over by investment firm Destiny Capital Solutions in a $4.1 billion deal, the New York Post reported on its Web site on Monday. - Reuters
Economic Data:
Stock Split Announcement:
NOBLE CORPORATION (Ticker: NE) announced that its board of directors approved a 2 for 1 stock split.
Aerospace
AXYS Axsys Technologies Stifel Nicolaus Price Target Raised Buy $29 to $32
TGI Triumph Group Stifel Nicolaus Price Target Raised Buy $72 to $83
Beverages
KOF Coca-Cola FEMSA JP Morgan Upgraded from Underweight to Neutral
PEP PepsiCo Matrix Research Upgraded from Hold to Buy
Biotech
SGMO Piper Jaffrey Price Target Raised $14
Broadcasting
CXR Cox Radio Wachovia Upgraded from Underperform to Mkt Perform
Business Services
ICTG ICT Group Boenning & Scattergood Cut Price Target Market Outperform $30 to $28
Computer Hardware
HITT Hittite Microwave Needham & Co Upgraded from Hold to Buy
Computer Services
SVVS SAVVIS Comm Kaufman Bros Upgraded from Hold to Buy $55
Computer Software
IGTE iGATE Roth Capital Price Target Raised Buy $8.50 to $10
MSTR MicroStrategy Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $100 to $90
MSTR MicroStrategy Roth Capital Cut Price Target Buy $120 to $100
Finance Companies
DRH Diamondrock Hospitality UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
PRS Primus Guaranty Calyon Securities Upgraded from Add to Buy
Foods
PFGC Performance Food JP Morgan Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight
Gaming Operations
ASCA Ameristar Casinos Sterne Agee Upgraded from Hold to Buy $32 to $44
DDE Dover Downs Gaming KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Upgraded from Hold to Buy $15
MGM MGM Mirage Lehman Brothers Upgraded from Equal-weight to Overweight $72 to $82
Healthcare
SEPR Sepracor Banc of America Sec Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
MSA Mine Safety Robert W. Baird Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform $44 to $49
SMBI Symbion RBC Capital Mkts Downgraded from Outperform to Sector Perform $24 to $22.35
UHS Universal Health BMO Capital Markets Cut Price Target Market Perform $60 to $58
ESRX Express Scripts Matrix Research Upgraded from Hold to Buy
WBMD WebMD Health Needham & Co Upgraded from Underperform to Hold
Heavy Machinery
IR Ingersoll-Rand Citigroup Upgraded from Hold to Buy
IR Ingersoll-Rand Robert W. Baird Downgraded from Outperform to Neutral $60 to $54
Hotels and Motels
BEE Strategic Hotels & Resorts UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
OEH Orient-Express UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
Insurance
ACE ACE Limited Bear Stearns Upgraded from Peer Perform to Outperform
PFG Principal Fincl Credit Suisse Upgraded from Underperform to Neutral $61
Manufacturing
AYI Acuity Brands BB&T Capital Mkts Upgraded from Hold to Buy
DHR Danaher JP Morgan Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight
KDN Kaydon Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Outperform $62 to $63
ROP Roper Inds Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Outperform $65 to $66
Mining - Minerals
MEE Massey Energy Friedman Billings Downgraded from Mkt Perform to Underperform $27 to $24
CNX CONSOL Energy Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Outperform $70 to $68
MEE Massey Energy Caris & Company Cut Price Target Above Average $31 to $26
Motion Pictures
RENT Rentrak BWS Financial Initiated at Buy $20
Motor Vehicles
ITT ITT Industries Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Mkt Perform $63 to $69
Oil and Gas
HK Petrohawk Energy JP Morgan Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight
PCZ Petro-Canada Lehman Brothers Upgraded from Underweight to Equal-weight
BHI Jeffries Price Target Raised $102
BHI Baker Hughes RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Outperform $100 to $117
BHI Baker Hughes Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Outperform $90 to $96
DO Diamond Offshore Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Outperform $117 to $139
Personal Services
NVT Navteq CIBC Wrld Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform $64
Regional Banks
SOV Sovereign Banc Bear Stearns Upgraded from Underperform to Peer Perform
MBHI Midwest Banc Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $16 to $15
TCBK TriCo Bancshares RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Perform $25 to $22
UCBH UCBH Holdings BMO Capital Markets Cut Price Target Outperform $22 to $20
REITs
HT Hersha Hospitality Trust UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
AHM American Home Mortgage JMP Securities Downgraded from Mkt Perform to Mkt Underperform $8
AHM American Home Mortgage RBC Capital Mkts Downgraded from Outperform to Sector Perform
AHM American Home Mortgage Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Underperform $15 to $3
Retail Trade
JWN JMPS Upgraded to Buy
ZUMZ Zumiez Caris & Company Upgraded from Average to Above Average $42
TJX TJX Cos Credit Suisse Price Target Raised Outperform $32 to $35
CHS Chico's FAS Roth Capital Initiated at Buy $24
BEBE bebe stores Merriman Curhan Ford Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
PLCE Children's Place Susquehanna Financial Downgraded from Positive to Neutral
AAP Advance Auto BMO Capital Markets Cut Price Target Market Perform $42 to $40
Securites Exchang
e NYX NYSE Euronext BMO Capital Markets Cut Price Target Market Perform $95 to $90
Semiconductors
ESLR Evergreen Solar Banc of America Sec Upgraded from Sell to Neutral
VECO Veeco Instruments Citigroup Upgraded from Hold to Buy
RFMD Piper Jaffrey still a buyer of RFMD, SNDK, STM, TQNT, and TXN as 3G and smart phone checks show strong.
CHRT Chartered Semi JP Morgan Downgraded from Neutral to Underweight
QLGC QLogic Needham & Co Downgraded from Buy to Hold
Telecommunications
CNSL Consolidated Comms Illinois Citigroup Upgraded from Sell to Hold
MOT Motorola JMP Securities Upgraded from Mkt Underperform to Mkt Perform
TKC Turkcell Bear Stearns Upgraded from Peer Perform to Outperform
CELL Piper Jaffrey says improving trends
HUB.B Hubbell Inc Stifel Nicolaus Price Target Raised Buy $66 to $71
Transpo-Railroads
NSC Norfolk Southern JP Morgan Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight
Transportation
EGLE Eagle Bulk Shipping Lazard Capital Upgraded from Hold to Buy
KNX Knight Transportation JP Morgan Upgraded from Neutral to Overweight
RCL JP Morgan Downgraded
Utilities
CNL CLECO Corp KeyBanc Capital Mkts / McDonald Upgraded from Hold to Buy $27
EDE Empire District Elec Jefferies & Co Upgraded from Hold to Buy $24
NI NiSource JP Morgan Upgraded from Underweight to Neutral
SO Southern Co Banc of America Sec Upgraded from Neutral to Buy $38
SWX Southwest Gas UBS Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
TAC Transalta RBC Capital Mkts Upgraded from Underperform to Sector Perform $27 to $31
OSIS Jeffries is buying ; OSIS, TASR, COGT, and MMS