Monday Morning, July 9th
SITE NEWS
New IceMD Recording
High blood pressure-Developing It and Curing It
Hidden Treasure News:
CHINA is mentioned in the Whispers section, and LUCE has been promoted from a Hidden Treasure to a Diamond.
New Email Alert Option:
Ice Cold Stocks members now have their choice to receive either (1) The Ice Man's /IntraDay Email Alerts/ throughout the day, or (2) the new ICS /One-A-Day /Morning Commentary Alert.
Those who choose the /One-A-Day /Alert will only receive one email alert per day --- the alert for the Ice Man's Morning Commentary.
For more information about these options, please visit http://icecoldstocks.com/sign_up.html
Dow Stock News
HD - upgraded to Buy at Goldman Sachs and $45 price target
According to Reuters, a dispute between Airbus and GE (GE) could delay the launch of the Airbus 350.
Reuters writes that Boeing (BA) will unveil its 787 after recently receiving a number of new orders.
Reuters also reports that Microsoft (MSFT) will not cut the price of its Xbox in Japan.
HD Home Depot Credit Suisse Price Target Raised Neutral $40 to $43
INTC Intel UBS Price Target Raised Buy $27 to $30
Ice Man Stocks
Breakouts the Ice Man may consider trading:
FMC - 91
JOYG - 61.50
IVGN - 75 Triple Top Breakout
CEO 120
TNH 140
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
trades
CTSH 79 = 81
NG 16.05 = 17.40 gap
AU 41.05
HMY above 14.85
NFI above 8.05
KBH above 39.05
SYX 21.65
Depressed stocks the Ice Man may buy:
CUTR above 25.60
FORM above 39.26
PACR above 24.25
GFI above 16.20
VIMC above 6.40
MTMD above 2.40
Media Commentators
Cramer's Comments:
Bullish: RIMM, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, GRMN, FSLR, CIEN, LVLT, GLW, NVDA, CROX, UA, HNR, TX, NYX, CAT, CSCO;
Gorilla Trades:
New Potential Buys:
Warner Chilcott Ltd. (WCRX): ABOVE $18.55, with a $20.25 first target, a $24 second target, and a $16.75 stop loss. Confirmation Volume Area = 675K Risk Rating = 4;
Ice Cold Commentators
Break Man Video Summary:
Break out buy watch list for short term gains July 9 includes: WRSP, ABAT, JRJC, HLIT, SONE, CNXT, FDRY, ONNN, AL, LYO.
Several candidates for break out or pullback plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out on good volume and selling at least some on the first day. http://stocktiger.com
Swing Man Market Recap:
It was an extremely bullish week for the market! All the major indexes posted huge gains for the week, with the Dow and S&P 500 under performing with a gain of less than 2%, whereas the Technology laden Nasdaq/NDX/SOX all posting gains well over 2%! Again, the out performance of the Nasdaq/SOX tech areas has been going on for the past month now and is bullish for the market.
The 'Key' sectors also posted decent gains, with the Brokers posting the best gain and the Biotech posting the smallest gain.
Commodities also did well across the board including both the commodities and their respective stocks. Crude oil rallied over 3% for the week and oil stocks followed suit, however it did not have a negative affect on the market as you can see. Keep in mind that energy stocks make up more than 10% of the S&P 500, therefore a rally in that sector is generally positive for the 'general' market.
However, the sector that stood out the best by far was the gold stock indexes! The HUI Gold Bugs index for example, rallied over 7% for the week, by far out pacing all the other indexes! Last week on Thursday night I sent out a gold video highlighting this sector because it is possibly in the beginnings of a MAJOR BULLISH MOVE.
Merger & Acquisition activity continues to be robust and this is bullish because it lowers market liquidity. It is my opinion that all the M&Q activity that has occurred this year has been one of the fundamental reasons for the market rally.
Remember that Earnings season is now upon us, therefore be sure to check your stocks for earnings because they can cause major gap ups and gap downs.
The bottom line is that the index charts really look good, the Nasdaq and the tech areas continue to lead relative to the old economy stocks, which is bullish. The Indexes appear like they are on the merge of another move up, however I remain skeptical on how big of an upward move we will see because we are in the Summer Doldrums. If the charts looked like this but it was October or November, then I'd be VERY bullish, but with us in the slow time of the year, it's hard to say how large of a rally the market can experience here.
Still though, as you can see from the Daily List, I have far far more long picks than short picks, therefore bias remains to the Long side.
The Nasdaq looks bullish as it has broken out of a small ascending triangle pattern.
The height of the recent triangle is about 75 points, therefore add this to 2635 and you get a short term price target of about 2700 for the Nasdaq!
The negative divergence via the MACD could be negated if the Nasdaq rallies strongly enough.
The second chart is the 60 min chart of the Nasdaq for a close up view.
The NDX, which I have had in a bearish rising wedge pattern, has staged a bullish trend reversal via breaking above the upper line of the wedge. Thus this pattern is now negated!
The Dow Wilshire Index looks potentially bullish via a daily chart as it exhibits a bull flag pattern. However, it still has to clear the recent highs in order to stage a true breakout and the volume has been lighter on this push up than the last sell off.
Next, the S&P 500 has consolidated into a bull flag or triangle pattern on the daily chart. Again, a move is coming that could be to the upside or the downside.
Next let's take a look at the 'Big Picture' Analysis of the S&P 500. As you can see, the next probable target is the 2000 highs at 1555.
Also, for new subscribers, as you can see, this major bull market will not be over until the S&P 500 falls below the 20 month EMA.
Gold stocks were the star of the week! The HUI broke a downtrend line and broke out of a horizontal rectangle pattern on Friday which is very bullish. See the Commodities Section for a more detailed look.
Visit http://icecoldstocks.com/swing_trading/swing_man.html to view all the Swing Man charts and graphs.
CNBC Fast Money Review
News and Events Digest
Breaking News
Roche Holding AG Monday entered an alliance with #Alnylam Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ALNY)
valued at as much as $1 billion, giving the Swiss drug maker access to the U.S. biopharmaceutical company's technology platform for developing treatments based on ribonucleic acid-mediated interference.
Roche, based in Basel, said it will pay Alnylam $331 million upfront, including a cash payment and an equity investment of $42.5 million -- representing a stake of just under 5% of Alnylam's outstanding shares. - WSJ
Kimco Realty Corp. (KIM) said Monday that it acquired 34 properties totalling 4.1 million square feet in the second quarter of 2007 for $1.1 billion. The company also said it disposed of 28 properties totalling 3.4 million square feet for around $545 million in the quarter. - MarketWatch
Barrons:
Large Cap stocks featured including AIG, GE, YHOO.
GILD - mentioned positively in their fight against AIDS
FDX - possible LBO
Media Summary:
Reuters writes that Sony (SNE) will cut the price of its PS3 by $100.
The Wall Street Journal reports that it appears that the Chicago Merch (CME) will end up buying rival CBOT (CBOT) as a rival bidder refused to raise its price.
The Wall Street Journal writes that Campbell (CPB) will push into the Chinese and Russian markets with new soup products.
The New York Times reports that editorial workers at The Wall Street Journal are worried that falling ad revenue could cause job cuts if Dow Jones (DJ) stays independent.
The FT writes that News Corp (NWS) has set up its own video-game network.
Barron's reports that Ebay (EBAY) PayPal has been effectively fighting off competition from Google (GOOG) CheckOut, its newest rival.
M&A Activity:
Apollo raised its offer for Huntsman to $28 a share, valuing the chemical concern at around $6.5 billion, in an effort to block a move by rival bidder Bassell. - WSJ
U.S. theme park operator Cedar Fair Entertainment Co. (FUN) has reached out to private equity firms to gauge their interest in a buyout, The New York Post reported on Monday. - Reuters
Diversified industrial manufacturing firm Sequa Corp. (SQA.A, SQA.B) said Monday they have agreed to be bought by The Carlyle Group for $2.7 billion. Under the terms of the merger agreement, Carlyle will acquire all of the outstanding Class A and Class B shares of Sequa for $175.00 per share in cash, a premium of 54% to the closing prices of Sequa's Class A and Class B shares on July 6, the companies said. - MarketWatch
IPO Central:
IPOs on Schedule for week of 7/09/07
Silver State Bancorp (SSBX). The company is A bank holding company based in Henderson, Nevada. The company is selling 3.2M shares at the initial range between $22-$24. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $101M and Net Income of $22M. The Lead Managers are Sandler O‘Neill and Howe Barnes. Silver State Bancorp (SSBX) is headquartered in Henderson, NV and their website is www.silverstatebancorp.com.
Pricing:
Hhgregg, Inc. on Monday set an estimated price range of $15-$17 a share for its upcoming initial public offering. The Indianapolis, Ind. appliances and electronics retailer plans to raise about $150 million by offering 9.38 million shares with underwriters Credit Suisse and Lehman Brothers. Hhgregg plans to trade under the symbol HGG on the New York Stock Exchange. - MarketWatch
Economic Data:
2:00 Consumer Credit
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Brokers:
MER - best risk/reward says Smith Barney
Internet Information Providers:
YHOO - downgraded to Accumulate at THNK
GOOG - price target raised to $700 at THNK
Business Software:
CTSH - Jefferies believes this is a buying opportunity with $100 price target
Aerospace
TGI Triumph Group CIBC Wrld Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Outperform $71 to $77
Biotech
AMGN Amgen Credit Suisse Price Target Raised Neutral $52 to $53
BIIB Biogen Idec Credit Suisse Price Target Raised Neutral $52 to $54
Broadcasting
CVC Cablevision Deutsche Securities Downgraded from Buy to Hold $37
Chemicals
CE Celanese HSBC Securities Price Target Raised Overweight $40 to $45
Computer Hardware
SCSC ScanSource Matrix Research Upgraded from Hold to Buy
WDC Western Digital Caris & Company Price Target Raised Above Average $21 to $22
Computer Software
QSII Quality Systems Jefferies & Co Upgraded from Hold to Buy $45
ORCC Online Resources CIBC Wrld Mkts Initiated at Sector Outperform $15
KANA Kana Software Roth Capital Cut Price Target Buy $4 to $3.50
Construction
TEX Terex Robert W. Baird Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform $78 to $107
Gold and Silver Mining
EGO Eldorado Gold UBS Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
Healthcare
ISIS ISIS Pharm Needham & Co Upgraded from Buy to Strong Buy $16
NEOG Neogen Roth Capital Price Target Raised Buy $27 to $33
SHPGY Shire Pharm JP Morgan Downgraded from Overweight to Neutral
Healthcare Equipment
SPNC Spectranetics Roth Capital Initiated at Buy $15
Healthcare Info Tech
EICU Visicu Jefferies & Co Downgraded from Buy to Hold $10
Heavy Machinery
MTW Manitowoc Deutsche Securities Downgraded from Buy to Hold $75 to $80
Hotels and Motels
HLT Hilton Hotels Matrix Research Downgraded from Buy to Hold
Industrial Equipment
ASTE Astec Industries Robert W. Baird Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform $43 to $54
CMI Cummins Bear Stearns Upgraded from Peer Perform to Outperform
Insurance
AWH Allied World Assurance Lehman Brothers Downgraded from Overweight to Equal-weight
Internet Services
BIDU Baidu.com Citigroup Downgraded from Buy to Hold
Major Pharmaceutical
AOB American Oriental Lazard Capital Initiated at Buy $13
AOB American Oriental Piper Jaffray Initiated at Outperform
Manufacturing
RBC Regal-Beloit Deutsche Securities Upgraded from Hold to Buy $52 to $60
TYC Tyco Citigroup Downgraded from Hold to Sell
Medical Equipment
NSTR Northstar Neuroscience Banc of America Sec Initiated at Buy $17
Mfg - Aircraft
TDG Transdigm Group Lehman Brothers Resumed Coverage Overweight
Mining Non-Ferr Metal
FCX Freeport-McMoRan Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Mkt Perform $69 to $80
Motor Vehicles
PCAR PACCAR Bear Stearns Upgraded from Peer Perform to Outperform
RUSHA Rush Enterprises Bear Stearns Upgraded from Peer Perform to Outperform
Oil and Gas
WFT Weatherford JP Morgan Upgraded from Underweight to Neutral
HES Hess Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Outperform $69 to $73
MRO Marathon Oil Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Underperform $42 to $50
MUR Murphy Oil Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Mkt Perform $55 to $58
OXY Occidental Petro Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Mkt Perform $51 to $56
RIG Transocean Calyon Securities Price Target Raised Add $108 to $121
ESV Ensco Credit Suisse Downgraded from Neutral to Underperform $65
MDR McDermott Calyon Securities Downgraded from Buy to Add $92 to $102
Paper and Packaging
SLGN Silgan Holdings Lehman Brothers Upgraded from Equal-weight to Overweight
BLL Ball Corp Banc of America Sec Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
Recreational Vehicles
HOG Harley-Davidson Robert W. Baird Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform $75
Regional Banks
CBH Commerce Bancorp Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
REITs
ANH Anworth Mortgage JMP Securities Initiated at Mkt Outperform $10
IMH IMPAC Mortgage Roth Capital Downgraded from Buy to Hold $7 to $4.25
Retail Trade
CENT Central Garden Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Upgraded from Neutral to Buy $16
WAG Walgreen Matrix Research Upgraded from Buy to Strong Buy
Semiconductors
VIRL Virage Logic Needham & Co Upgraded from Hold to Buy $9
XLNX Xilinx Robert W. Baird Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform $30 to $37
QLGC QLogic Caris & Company Cut Price Target Above Average $20 to $18
TSM - price target raised to $12 at FBR. They also like ATMI, WFR, and ASTSF
Solar Energy
FSLR First Solar Banc of America Sec Price Target Raised Buy $91 to $115 (also rcd 1.3B in contracts)
FSLR First Solar Deutsche Securities Initiated at Hold $90
Telecommunications
PWAV Powerwave Robert W. Baird Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform $5 to $8
Transportation
EXPD Expeditors Intl Robert W. Baird Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform $49 to $52