Friday Morning, November 30th
SITE NEWS
New IceMD Recording:
Introduction To Medical Lasers;
Dow Stock News
General Motors Corp. (GM) expects the value of its auto parts purchases in China to rise an average of 25% annually between 2005 and 2010, Bo Andersson, vice president of GM's global purchasing and supply chain group, said Friday. - MarketWatch
Ice Man Stocks
Breakouts the Ice Man may consider trading:
CCI - 42
ATW - 85.50
CSCA - 13.75
MCRS - 73.70
FPL - 70.15
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
SYNL - 18.50
CPA - 35
FIG - 18
TSL - 41.50
SXCI - 14
CLWR - 14 = 15, 16 Gap
KG - 10.40
PDCO - 33
DVA - 62.45
ROCM - 13.15
ZBRA - 38.80
WMGI - 26.85
IRBT - 16.50
CETV - 110.25
Depressed stocks the Ice Man may buy:
DECK - 133 Gap
Dollar Man Ideas:
SPF - 3
TMA - 10.20
VPHM - 8.85
ORBC - 7.50
GLUU - 6.15
MCCC - 4.60
MGPI - 8.50
WMG - 8
Media Commentators
Cramer's Comments:
The show was mainly an interview with Rudy Giuliani and Cramer also went over that cash is no longer king since it looks like the Fed will cut.
Zacks:
Positive: HRB, JASO
Ice Cold Commentators
Swing Man Market Recap:
The market opened to the downside Thursday morning as many indexes closed at support yesterday. The SPX traded down to the low of the day at 1458 just past 10:00. From this level, the SPX ground its way higher over the next two hours reaching its intraday high at 1473. The market spent the rest of the afternoon chopping around in a narrow range with the SPX closing at 1469. At the close the SPX/DOW posted small gains of 0.10% and the NDN/NAZ tacked on 0.25%. Thursday marked the third straight day of gains in the market. Short term momentum is now displaying a slight negative divergence at today´s highs. Lastly, FED Chairman Bernanke spoke Thursday night, and this may have an influence on the markets.
Although the market has made a nice advance over the past three days, we cannot lose sight that all the major indexes still remain in confirmed downtrends and thus we must be aware of the increased risk associated with long trades. For your information, a downtrend is defined as a series of lower highs and lower lows on the daily charts. Previous to breaking out of the wedges, I mentioned that these indexes were likely to find some initial resistance at their declining 20 day moving averages. If you examine the charts of the major indices, you will see that they are all now trading in proximity to their respective 20 day moving averages. It is common during downtrends for the market to move up and back test their declining 20 day moving averages. Since the market has largely been contained (some indexes are now trading slightly above their 20´s), it will be important in the coming days to monitor the 20 day moving average for signs of a breakout or failure. A substantial breakout greatly increases the odds of a year end rally. If the market elects to pull back in the near term, you want to see that price holds above the 1438 level on the SPX and yesterday´s gaps which are clearly displayed on the NASDAQ and NDX charts. A breach of this support would likely lead to more downside.
With the above clarification in mind, let´s quickly review what´s transpired over the past few days. The major indexes decisively broke out of our falling wedge patterns yesterday which translated into a huge move up in the market. Entering today, the market was extremely overbought and at resistance so it remained to be seen if the bears would be able to seize back control. Had we saw strong selling today it would have indicated that our recent rally was likely a reaction to being oversold but today´s action does not support that thesis. While this is only one day, today´s action and the amount of skepticism over this advance provides some encouragement going forward. The longer the market is able to hold above the breakout levels mentioned above, the more likely for the shorts to become impatient, thus increasing the odds of a year end rally. Please keep in mind that the market still faces significant resistance overhead (SPX 1490) which will need to be taken out before becoming more aggressive. Market participants are already fixated upon the December FED meeting and their decision will certainly have a major impact upon stocks for the balance of the year. Therefore, continue to play the best setups and be cognizant of the risk involved. Focus on buying support and selling resistance.
Potential Targets: After the huge rally on Wednesday, which was one of the biggest up days in several years, the market consolidated Thursday. The Dow, SPX, Nasdaq, and NDX all closed with very modest gains, while the Russell 2000 lagged and lost about 0.5%. Thursday marked the 3rd straight day of gains for the market, which is also bullish. Lastly, the Fed Chairman Bernanke spoke Thursday evening and futures appear to be acting favorably so far. Tomorrow core PCE will be reported as well as the Chicago PMI.
As you know, the major indexes broke out from bull wedge patterns on Wednesday, which shouldn't have been a surprise given that I covered this extensively in the weekend newsletter and again this week.
Anyway, Thurday's action looks bullish and healthy technically as the indexes consolidated nicely and took a rest from Wednesday´s huge gains. As you will see below, the indexes now appear to have formed into bull flag patterns via the 60 min charts, therefore the odds favor more upside in the short term. For example, the Dow is likely to rally push higehr and test resistance at 13400, the S&P 500 is likely to push higher and test resistance at 1490, and the Nasdaq is likely to push higher and test major resistance at 2700.
Good Trading.
CNBC Fast Money Review
1. GRIFFIN MAKES AN E*TRADE
The headline: Bank Stocks Fail to Rise Even After Hedge Fund Star Ken Griffin Buys 17% Stake In ETFC.
Pete Najarian explained It´s a great play for him - he paid 27 cents on the dollar. However shares fell despite the $2.55B cash infusion. Najarian thinks ETFC stock is cheap and he bought shares Thursday.
2. SEARS PROFIT PLUMMETS 99%
The headline: Shares Of SHLD Plunge As Eddie Lampert-Run Retailer Posts 1 Cent Profit.
Dylan Ratigan says the owner of Sears & Kmart blamed the weak results on weather, increased competition and the credit crisis.
Tim Seymour suggested SHLD stock is a buy at current levels.
Guy Adami added, “Don´t bet against Eddie Lampert.’
3. AFTER HOURS ACTION
The headline: DELL down 7% After Profit Margins Fall Short.
Pete Najarian sees Thursday´s dip as a buying opportunity.
Guy Adami agrees. He still loves Dell on Michael Dell´s leadership.
4. GURU CALLS GREENBACK BOTTOM
Goldman Chief Economist Jim O'Neill is calling the dollar “strongly undervalued’ against all currencies except the yen. Has the dollar´s decline reached its limit?
Guy Adami said the fact that O´Neill said this ahead of the Dec. 11th Fed meeting is very interesting tome. I too believe the dollar is stabilizing.
Tim Seymour added that might be the case for major currencies but I think the emerging market currencies will continue to dominate the dollar.
Dylan Ratigan said the bottom line is: Indications this week suggest stability in the dollar.
5. BLOOD IN THE STREETS
This week $13.5 billion flowed into the financials. Do these purchases of subprime distressed assets mark a bottom for bank stocks?
Whitney Tilson, The Value Investing Congress Chairman and manager of hedge fund T2 Partners joined the panel for a conversation. Following are excerpts from what was said.
Short LEH, advised Tilson. I think they likely have a lot of exposure that C and MER have, but they haven´t confessed it, yet.
Also, he suggested that MBI and ABK might not survive the credit crunch.
In addition, Tilson also suggested FRE could be a buy.
Pete Najarian countered prefer FNM.
Guy Adami said AMP is a buy in my book.
6. POPS AND DROPS
AAPL popped 2%: Najarian: With two of the top three sellers on eBay, Apple is “rockin´.’
VCLK popped 7%: Finerman: It´s higher on takeover speculation.
MW dropped 16%: Seymour: A new slogan: “You´re going to love the way you look and you´re going to hate our earnings guidance.’
ARO dropped 13%: Adami: ARO has been one of the few retailers that have done well. It was due for a drop.
7. YOUR FIRST MOVE FOR FRIDAY
Tim Seymour recommended SHLD as a way to “swim with the whales’ in the wake of Sears´ huge quarterly loss.
Guy Adami would buy ETFC, another stock down big recently.
Karen Finerman went with UFS, a year-old Canadian paper company.
Pete Najarian agreed with Guy: Buy ETFC.
News and Events Digest
Breaking News
U.S. subprime mortgage holders who are struggling to repay debt could have the interest rates on their mortgage repayments frozen at low introductory levels, as the Bush administration hammers out a rescue plan with major financial institutions, the Wall Street Journal reported Friday. - CNBC
Bernanke said the housing downturn and mortgage turmoil are adding "greater than usual" uncertainty to the economic outlook, in a signal the Fed chairman is open to cutting rates. The third-quarter GDP estimate was raised to 4.9%. - WSJ
Sears Holdings Corp. (SHLD) on Friday disclosed that it received an administrative subpoena from a district attorney in California over its handling of handling of hazardous waste in the state. - MarketWatch
Canadian Solar Inc. (CSIQ) said Friday that it plans to make a private offer of around $75 million of its convertible senior notes due 2017. Proceeds from the offer will be used for working capital and potential future acquisitions. - MarketWatch
Newmont Mining Corp. (NEM) said Friday it has agreed to sell royalty assets and other non-core investments to Franco-Nevada Corp. for about $1.3 billion. - MarketWatch
Tiffany & Co.'s (TIF) fiscal third-quarter profit jumped to $98.9 million, or 71 cents a share, from $29.1 million, or 21 cents, a year earlier, boosted in part by a gain on the sale-leaseback of its flagship store in Tokyo. Earnings from continuing operations were 72 cents a share for the quarter. The New York luxury chain said sales for the quarter ended Oct. 31 increased to $627.3 million from $531.8 million a year ago. The company is expecting earnings of $2.49 to $2.54 a share for fiscal 2007. Tiffany sees 2007 sales growth of about 15%. - MarketWatch
Media Summary
According to Reuters, Fed chief Bernanke said the resurgence in financial strains in recent weeks had dimmed the outlook for the U.S. economy.
Reuters writes that Dell's (DELL) profit rose but if offered a weak outlook.
The Wall Street Journal writes that the government and leanders are near a deal that would freeze interest rates on some sub-prime loans.
The Wall Street Journal reports that the president of Morgan Stanley (MS), Zoe Cruz, has left the company.
The Wall Street Journal writes that the chairman of Goldman Sachs (GS) in China is setting up his own private equity fund which could compete with the big investment bank.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Google (GOOG) will announce today that it will enter the bidding for wireless spectrum that the FCC will hold in January.
The Wall Street Journal reports that vulture funds have recently raised $600 billion in recnet years some of it to take advantage of the mortgage mess.
The Wall Street Journal says that Verizon Wireless will adopt a technology from Europe in a blow to Quatcomm (QCOM)
The Wall Street Journal also reports that Apple (AAPL) will begin selling a 3G iPhone in the US next year.
The New York Times writes that Facebook is cutting back its new advertising program due to member complaints.
The FT writes that the German finance minister blames "snooty" bankers for much of the current financial crisis.
Barron's writes that Interactive Broker's should prosper
CNN Money writes that the FDA is likely to approve a new stent product from Abbott Labs (ABT)
IPO Central:
Coming Public Today:
GHL Acquisition Corp. on Friday filed to raise up to $400 million in a blank check initial public offering. The company's CEO is Scott L. Bok, 48, who is co-CEO of boutique investment bank Greenhill & Co. Inc. (GHL). The New York company has applied to have its units listed on the American Stock Exchange under the symbol GHQ.U. Bank of America Securities LLC (BAC)is underwriting the deal. - MarketWatch
IPOs on schedule for the week of 12/03/07:
BGMedicine (BGMD). The company is a life sciences company focused on the development and commercialization of molecular diagnostics based on biomarkers. The company is selling 4.5M shares at the initial range between $14-$16. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $9M and Net Income of $(-6)M. The Lead Manager is Cowen and Leerink is Co. Manager. BGMedicine (BGMD) is headquartered in Waltham, MA and the company website is www.bg-medicine.com.
Cardtronics (CATM). The company owns and operates 12,000 automated teller machines (ATMs) throughout the United States. The company is selling 16.7M shares at the initial range between $14-$16. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $546M and Net Income of $3M. The Lead Managers are Deutsche Bank, William Blair, and Bank of America. Cardtronics (CATM) is headquartered in Houston, TX and the company website is www.cardtronics.com.
Entropic Communications (ENTR). The company is a fabless designer of chips enabling connected home entertainment. The company is selling 10M shares at the initial range between $9-$11. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $54M and Net Income of $(-7)M. The Lead Managers are Credit Suisse and Lehman Brothers. Entropic Communications (ENTR) is headquartered in San Diego, CA and the company website is www.entropic.com.
Iggys House (IGGY). The company is an Online real estate company that offers innovative services to home buyers and sellers. The company is selling 1.4M shares at the initial range between $6-$6. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $1M and Net Income of $(-6)M. The Lead Manager is Northland Securities and Bathgate Capital Partners is Co. Manager. Iggys House (IGGY) is headquartered in Chicago, IL and the company website is www.iggyshouse.com.
New Filings:
Broadview Networks Holdings Inc. on Friday filed to raise up to $288 million in an initial public offering with underwriters Deutche Bank Securities and Jefferies & Co. The Rye Brook, N.Y. seller of voice and data networking solutions reported an adjusted loss of $27.2 million on revenue of $374 million in the nine months ended Sept. 30. Broadview traces its roots to 1996, when it was founded "to take advantage of the competitive opportunities in the local exchange communications market," the company said in its IPO filing. Broadview Networks plans to trade on the Nasdaq but has yet to propose a ticker symbol. - MarketWatch
Stock Split Announcement:
MedcoHealth Solutions Inc (Ticker: MHS) announced that its board of directors approved a 2 for 1 stock split.
Economic Data:
8:30 Personal Income
8:30 Personal Spending
8:30 Core PCE Inflation
9:45 Chicago PMI
10:00 Construction Spending
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Biotech
IDEV Indevus Pharm JMP Securities Downgraded from Strong Buy to Mkt Outperform
Broadcasting
CRWN Crown Media Oppenheimer Price Target Raised Buy $9.25 to $10.50
Brokerage Services
IVZ InVesco Sandler O'Neill Initiated at Buy $32
CS Credit Suisse Bear Stearns Downgraded from Peer Perform to Underperform
ETFC E*TRADE BMO Capital Markets Downgraded from Outperform to Market Perform
ETFC E*TRADE Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $12 to $6.50
Business Services
MAN Manpower Credit Suisse Initiated at Outperform $73
TRAK DealerTrack Sun Trust Rbsn Humphrey Initiated at Buy $61
Computer Hardware
FFIV F5 Networks BMO Capital Markets Upgraded from Market Perform to Outperform
DELL Dell Friedman Billings Price Target Raised Mkt Perform $28 to $30
DELL Dell Caris & Company Cut Price Target Above Average $35 to $30
DELL Dell Bear Stearns Cut Price Target Outperform $43 to $40
RDWR Radware Wedbush Morgan Cut Price Target Hold $17 to $16
DELL DELL - removed from the Goldman Sachs Conviction Buy List B
Computer Services
HMSY HMS Holdings Banc of America Sec Initiated at Buy $40
Computer Software
MENT Mentor Graphics Needham & Co Cut Price Target Buy $18 to $16
Construction
WSO Watsco KeyBanc Capital Mkts Downgraded from Aggressive Buy to Hold
Finance Companies
LULU Lululemon Athletica RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Outperform $41 to $47
DB Deutsche Bank AG Bear Stearns Downgraded from Peer Perform to Underperform
UBS UBS AG Bear Stearns Downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform
Health-Beauty Prod
SBH Sally Beauty Oppenheimer Price Target Raised Neutral $7.60 to $9.45
Healthcare
OSIP OSI Pharm Collins Stewart Upgraded from Market Perform to Buy
MOGN MGI Pharma Friedman Billings Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform $37
MNT Mentor Corp Leerink Swann Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
HR Healthcare Realty Jefferies & Co Initiated at Buy $26
ESRX Express Scripts BMO Capital Markets Initiated at Outperform $83
Insurance
AET Aetna BMO Capital Markets Initiated at Outperform $65
CI CIGNA BMO Capital Markets Initiated at Outperform $60
Major Pharmaceutical
AXCA Axcan Pharma RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Perform $22 to $23.35
Manufacturing
FCEL FuelCell Energy JP Morgan Initiated at Overweight
MHK Mohawk Banc of America Sec Downgraded from Neutral to Sell
PLUG Plug Power JP Morgan Initiated at Underweight
Motion Pictures
LGF Lions Gate Entain Wedbush Morgan Upgraded from Buy to Strong Buy $13
Oil and Gas
VLO Valero Energy Banc of America Sec Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
WNR Western Refining Banc of America Sec Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
Refining Sector upgraded to Buy at Bank of America
Restaurants
IHP IHOP Corp CL King Cut Price Target Accumulate $75 to $70
Retail Trade
ABH AbitibiBowater RBC Capital Mkts Upgraded from Sector Perform to Outperform
ZUMZ Zumiez Susquehanna Financial Upgraded from Neutral to Positive
JCG J. Crew CIBC Wrld Mkts Price Target Raised Sector Outperform $50 to $53
MHS Medco Health Solutions BMO Capital Markets Initiated at Outperform $120
DLIA Delia*s Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $4 to $3.50
Savings & Loan
WSFS WSFS Financial Sandler O'Neill Upgraded from Hold to Buy
Semiconductors
CALP Caliper Life Sciences Susquehanna Financial Upgraded from Neutral to Positive
VSEA VSEA - upgraded to Overweight at TWPT U
CATS Catalyst Semiconductor Needham & Co Price Target Raised Buy $6.50 to $7.50
OVTI OVTI - offers a compelling value says Oppenheimer O
ASML ASML Holding UBS Initiated at Buy
IFX Infineon UBS Initiated at Buy
PHG Royal Philips Electronics UBS Initiated at Buy
OTIV On Track Innovations Soleil Downgraded from Buy to Hold
Technology - Games
GLUU Glu Mobile Kaufman Bros Upgraded from Hold to Buy $11 to $10
Telecommunications
TMX Telefonos de Mex JP Morgan Upgraded from Underweight to Neutral
SIRF SIRF - mentioned in Businessweek as well positioned to rise M
TU Telus RBC Capital Mkts Downgraded from Outperform to Sector Perform
MOT Motorola CIBC Wrld Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Outperform $23 to $21