Friday Morning, September 14th
Dow Stock News
According to Reuters, Intel (INTC) received antitrust charges from a branch of the South Korean government.
Reuters writes that as Microsoft (MSFT) prepares for an antitrust decision for the EU, its rivals insist that the company has not changed its ways.
The Wall Street Journal writees that the UAW picked GM (GM) as its laed negotiator meaning it will try to cur a deal with the car companies before moving to its rivals.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Verizon (VZ) has gone to court to challenege the right of the FCC to mandate that the new radio spectrum it will auction must be open to use by any device or cellphone applications.
The Wall Street Journal says Wal-Mart (WMT) is using Subway to offer fast good in many of its stores and pushing out McDonald's (MCD).
The Wall Street Journal reports that stents from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) work better than products from Boston Scientific (BSX).
INTC - downgraded to Neutral at Merrill
AXP - downgraded to Neutral at Merrill
UTX United Tech Bernstein Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
Ice Man Stocks
Breakouts the Ice Man may consider trading:
SYNA - 45
SNCR - 40
GE - 41
Regular Trades the Ice Man may consider:
XBD (Index) - 229
OMTR - took good volume & closed near the high
OIH - 185.65
RVSN - 19
VZ - 43
RIG - 110
IIVI - 31.70
WMS - 30
HIG - 89
Depressed stocks the Ice Man may buy:
SNDK - 48.10 G
LDK - 49 G
WFR - 55 (MA)
Dollar Man Ideas:
CMOS - 3
EXTR - 3.75
ICO - 4.45
IMH - 1.85
GNBT - 1.70
BBX - 9
Media Commentators
Cramer's Comments:
Was a pre-aired show on spotting Tops and Bottoms.
Ice Cold Commentators
Break Man Video Summary:
Break out buy (or short sell) watch list for short term gains September 14 includes: SRSL, MGAM, LWAY, PRKR, ORCC, KGC, CRGN.
Several candidates for break out or short sell plays for at least short term gains by buying the break out (or selling the break down) on good volume and closing at least some on the first day.
Swing Man Market Recap:
The most important chart to watch is the SP 500. As I said there was resistance at 1490 and that's where the bears stepped in today (our high today was 1489.58). The SP 500 has formed a triangle and which ever way this triangle breaks (confirmed by volume) will indicate where the market is headed. It appears there was some rotation today out of techs and into the financials and cyclicals.
The financials are sporting positive divergence so that should provide some support to move higher. Overall, the point and figure calculation of buy and sell signals has been narrowing over the past 5 days which indicates weakening demand (not a sell signal but something I will monitor closely over the coming days). In summary, a break up should lead to a test of the highs while a break down from the triangle would likely take us down towards the lower trendline near 1410.
CNBC Fast Money Review
1. BROKERS BREAKOUT:
The headline: Lehman, Brokers Lead Market Higher Before Earnings Begin Next Week
Najarian: There´s more comfort out there now that there has been a cash infusion in Countrywide. Options are indicating people expect large
movements in the brokers heading into their earnings next week. The volatility in LEH and GS alone make Pete think the stocks will move “double digits.’
Adami: “wouldn´t be upset if people took profits’ in Goldman.
Karen Finerman: wants it to get cheaper and doesn´t think the bank will have the record earnings some are predicting.
2. PICK YOUR ALTERNATIVE
As goes oil, so goes the rest of the energy sector. As oil closes above $80 for the first time, what´s the best alternative in the alternative energy space?
Najarian: has long been a believer in solar energy. He likes TSL and STP, but his favorite play is SPWR, a spin-off of CY. SunPower makes high-performance cells for solar panels that are very efficient. Pete says you could buy CY as a safe bet or take the gamble and go for SPWR.
Adami: remains bullish on FLR as a nuclear play, in addition to a play on infrastructure.
Macke: likes the Boardwalk Real Estate Trust, a REIT traded in Canada that is a play on the “booming’ oil sands in Calgary.
3. WHALE WATCHING: Bill Ackman
Wall Street Whale and activist investor Bill Ackman holds both McDonald´s and
Target –two stocks that surged Thursday –. Does he have the Midas touch, or are the moves merely coincidental?
Karen Finerman: says Ackman has a 9.6% stake in TGT and a 1.6% stake in MCD. The news that sold TGT up was that the company said it might sell its credit card business, which is an item long known to be high on Ackman´s agenda. The retailer seems to be responding to him. She also thinks the McDonald´s dividend is “an old story for Ackman.’
Macke: is skeptical that there is a direct cause-and-effect relationship between the investor and the decisions made at the very top of the company.
Macke likes both stories, but Ackman is “hardly infallible,’ he said.
4. ON THR ROAD AGAIN
The headline: General Motors Jumps 10% on Citigroup “Buy’ Rating, creation of Health Care Trust Fund; UAW Locals Told to Prepare for Possible Strike Friday.
Adami: If the union deal gets done, it will be very bullish for GM. But if GM doesn´t get union concessions – and soon – he thinks the stock will retreat.
5. MAC ATTACK
The headline: McDonald´s Surges 6% to All-Time High Following Largest-Ever Dividend Increase
Macke: MCD is a “tremendous’ company. It isn´t too rich here, either. He would buy it.
6. POPS AND DROPS
BBI popped 5%: Macke says a great day to sell Blockbuster.
BID popped 5%: Adami loves it.
NILE popped 8%: Macke still loves the stock. He recommends getting long right here, right now.
LOW popped 3%: Macke if you need to own any of the homebuilding companies on the retail side, Lowe´s is much cleaner than Home Depot.
ASD dropped 4%: People are worried that its sale of its bath & kitchen unit is in jeopardy, but Karen likes it.
SCSS dropped 9%: Karen points out there are a huge short interest in this stock, she says, “I wouldn´t touch it.’
GLW dropped 4%: Adami doesn´t like it.
7. YOUR FIRST MOVE FOR FRIDAY
Macke: recommends selling GM.
Adami: would be a buyer of the DOG, because he “didn´t like the action’ Thursday.
Finerman: is a buyer of COP with oil at $80.
Najarian: likes the networkers and thinks JAVA is the way to go.
News and Events Digest
Breaking News
Goldman´s flagship Global Alpha hedge fund declined 22.7% last month, the worst month in the fund's 12-year history. - WSJ
Ann Taylor is introducing a more expensive line of clothing for upscale shoppers at a time when midlevel apparel retailers are struggling. - WSJ
Alaska Air Group (ALK) parent of Alaska Airlines, said on Thursday that its board approved a stock repurchase of up to $100 million. - Reuters
Women's apparel retailer Bebe Stores Inc. (BEBE) said its board authorized the repurchase of 5 million shares of its common stock from its former Vice Chairwoman Neda Mashouf at a price per share of $13.39. - Reuters
U.K. mortgage lender Northern Rock said Friday that it needs to tap the Bank of England for emergency funding after the credit crunch left it struggling to raise financing, sending the stock down as much as 25% in morning trading. - MarketWatch
Investment bank Morgan Stanley (MS) has threatened to pull its debt financing from the leveraged buyout of Reddy Ice (FRZ) according to a regulatory filing, amid a fight with the buyer over deal terms. - Reuters
Media Summary:
Reuters writes that Campbell (CPB) is seeking over $1 billion for its Godiva chocolate business.
The Wall Street Journal reports that Goldman Sachs (GS) huge Global Alpha fund declined almost 23% in August.
The Wall Street Journal writes that a group lead by the Royal Bank of Scotland is likely to win ABN Amro (ABN) over a bid from Barclays (BCS).
The Wall Street Journal wirtes that Exxon (XOP) will go to arbitration to get some of its assets out of Venezuela.
The union representing writers at Dow Jones (DJ) says it a near a deal with the publisher.
The FT reports that Google (GOOG) will call for a global web privacy policy.
Barron's writes that Dell (DELL) will delay its quarterly filing while it finishes work on restatements.
Barron's writes that PC shipments are rising but sales of computers to consumers is pushing pricer per units down sharply.
CNNMoney writes that Hovnanian (HOV) will offer huge discounts to sell some of its home inventory.
IPO Central:
IPOs on schedule for week 9/17/07:
athenahealth (ATHN). The company provides on-demand revenue cycle software for physician practices. The company is selling 6.3M shares at the initial range between $14-$16. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $76M and Net Income of $(-9)M. The Lead Managers are Goldman and Merrill. athenahealth (ATHN) is headquartered in Watertown, MA and their website is www.athenahealth.com.
ZARS Pharma (ZARS). The company is developing topically administered drugs for pain management. The company is selling 5M shares at the initial range between $14-$16. The company announced Revenues for the last 12 months of $10M and Net Income of $(-7)M. The Lead Managers are Goldman and Merrill. ZARS Pharma (ZARS) is headquartered in Watertown, MA and their website is www.zars.com.
Stock Split Announcement:
Dick's Sporting Goods Inc (Ticker: DKS) announced that its board of directors approved a 2 for 1 stock split.
Economic Data:
8:30 Current Account
8:30 Export Prices
8:30 Retail Sales
9:15 Industrial Production:
9:15 Capacity Utilization
10:00 Business Inventories
10:00 Michigan Sentiment
Upgrades and Downgrades by Sector:
Aerospace
TGI Triumph Group Banc of America Sec Upgraded from Neutral to Buy $78 to $88
Biotech
TPTX TorreyPines Therapeutics JMP Securities Initiated at Strong Buy $13
IMCL Imclone Friedman Billings Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform $64 to $45
MRX Medicis Matrix Research Initiated at Strong Sell
Chemicals
GGC Georgia Gulf Credit Suisse Upgraded from Underperform to Neutral
Computer Hardware
PALM Palm Morgan Keegan Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
SNDK Goldman Sachs says Selloff overdone
Computer Software
BOBJ Business Objects First Albany Downgraded from Buy to Neutral
Construction
FLR Fluor Citigroup Downgraded from Buy to Hold
Finance Companies
CLMS Calamos Asset Credit Suisse Upgraded from Neutral to Outperform $27 to $29
Healthcare Facilities
CYH Community Health Wachovia Price Target Raised Outperform
Leisure Travel
ALGT Allegiant Travel Matrix Research Initiated at Strong Buy
Manufacturing
ENER Energy Conversion Jefferies & Co Initiated at Buy $33
ROP Roper Inds Friedman Billings Downgraded from Outperform to Mkt Perform $66
Mining - Minerals
MEE Massey Energy Friedman Billings Cut Price Target Mkt Perform $24 to $22
Oil and Gas
BBEP Breitburn Energy AG Edwards Upgraded from Hold to Buy
BBEP Breitburn Energy Wachovia Upgraded from Mkt Perform to Outperform
ANW Aegean Marine Petrol Jefferies & Co Initiated at Buy $42
FTI FMC Tech Jefferies & Co Initiated at Buy $62
KOG Kodiak Oil & Gas BMO Capital Markets Initiated at Outperform $6
NBR Nabors Ind RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Perform $39 to $35
Paper and Packaging
WY Weyerhaeuser Banc of America Sec Upgraded from Neutral to Buy
AVY Avery Dennison Robert W. Baird Downgraded from Outperform to Neutral $75 to $64
Publishing
JW.A John Wiley Stifel Nicolaus Upgraded from Hold to Buy $53
Real Estate
FCEA Forest City RBC Capital Mkts Downgraded from Outperform to Sector Perform $80 to $54
Regional Banks
FITB Fifth Third Keefe Bruyette Upgraded from Underperform to Mkt Perform
REITs
EGP EastGroup Robert W. Baird Initiated at Outperform $50
Restaurants
GRIL Grill Concepts Roth Capital Initiated at Buy $10
Retail Trade
CC Circuit City RBC Capital Mkts Cut Price Target Sector Perform $16 to $13
BBY - Top Pick at RBCM, expect retail enviromnment to improve towards the end of 2007
Semiconductors
ANAD Anadigics Roth Capital Price Target Raised Buy $17 to $19
Telecommunications
RIMM Research In Motion RBC Capital Mkts Price Target Raised Top Pick $83 to $110
SONS Sonus Networks Cantor Fitzgerald Price Target Raised Hold $5.25 to $5.50
NOK Businessweek mentioned positively
RIMM Research In Motion BMO Capital Markets Initiated at Outperform $100
VIP Vimpel Comms Bear Stearns Downgraded from Outperform to Peer Perform
Transpo-Railroads
UNP Businessweek Listed at Top Pick by a Morgan Stanly Analyst