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Take a Second Look at Take-Two

Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) has been the bad boy of the video gaming industry and has been punished severely over the last year for its adulterous indiscretions in Grand Theft Auto and the options scandal. Since last June, the stock fell a whopping 67% to a low of $9 just two months ago. Since then, it has bounced back and gained over 50% and currently sits pretty at under $15. The rollercoaster ride encountered by TTWO is typical of small caps, specially those that get enveloped in scandals.
 
I believe that the stock has a lot more room to run. Here is why:
  • For one thing, its GTA franchise still stands strong and is the yard stick which others like Eidos and others are trying to measure up against through ventures like Just Cause and Saints Row.
  • Secondly, all eyes are currently on Electronic Arts (ERTS), which I have seen everyone from Pat Dorsey of Morningstar to Jim Cramer speak favorably of. Meanwhile, TTWO has been left for the dead, with everyone still denouncing it. I like it because everyone hates it.
  • Options scandal is over-rated. Currently, over 100 companies are being investigated for the same reason including ERTS and Activision (ATVI).
  • A new string of gaming consoles will be hitting the market over the next 6-12 months. Also XBox 360 is expected to be one of the top selling items this holiday season.
  • Take Two has a lot of mega hit games out that will take market share from Electronic Arts including Oblivion, Prey, Midnight Club 3, Civilization IV and sports titles under its 2K Sports and Rockstar Games umbrella. I have played some of these games and I can tell you that NHL 2K7, Table Tennis and Top Spin 2 are incredibly addictive.
  • While TTWO trades at a forward multiple of 25, ERTS and ATVI trade at 43 and 30 respectively.
  • The company announced a delay in filing its 10-Q risking being delisted from Nasdaq, and the stock has still moved up despite the news.

$15 was a big level of support on the way down and it will take some strength for the stock to get above that level with conviction, but once it does, it will be a quick run to $17 and maybe even $20.

On the flip side, the stock is risky and volatility is its middle name, but for those who like to play with high risk/reward odds, this one could be a strong winner.

-- Faisal Laljee
Published Friday, September 29, 2006 12:40 AM by Faisal Laljee
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The above content is provided for educational and informational purposes only, does not constitute a recommendation to enter in any securities transactions or to engage in any of the investment strategies presented in such content, and does not represent the opinions of Zecco or its employees.


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StocksandBlogs.com
StocksandBlogs.com provides stock tips, equity research and markets commentary. This site will give you investment ideas that you can apply to your financial portfolio. By sharing my money making stock tips and research, I hope I can help you manage your wealth better - whether you are a long-term investor or looking for a quick trade, a bull or a bear. From Wall Street to Walmart, Commodities to Foreign Exchange, you will find it all here. My name is Faisal Laljee and you can email me anytime at flaljee@mail.stocksandblogs.com

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