Crowder Investment Research (Crowder's Corner)

Positive Seasonality Approaching

2007-11-16T02:16:00Z

Thanksgiving is next week and historically the market performs very well the day before and the day after the holiday. The Stock Trader’s Almanac states , “long into weakness prior, exit into strength after”. They go on to state that “for 35 years the combination of the Wednesday before Thanksgiving and the Friday after had a great track record, except for two occasions...(read more)

The Importance of Position Sizing

2007-11-07T02:21:00Z

Position Sizing How much should you allocate to each trade? This frequently asked question lacks definitive answers. Why? The answer is quite simple; as investors, we all have a different set of goals. There are just too many variables out there (age, income, retirement goals, spending habits, etc...(read more)

How did options strategies react to the plunge today?

2007-11-01T22:54:00Z

Yesterday I stated in the blog: Historically, when we see the S&P up over 0.5% and the 10-year Treasury notes up over 1% following a Fed announcement the market has a tendency to struggle over the short-term (1-5) days. Couple the aforementioned historical tendency with the benchmarks we follow nearing overbought territory and you can see why the market could struggle over the next few trading days...(read more)

Fedspeak and the Aftermath

2007-10-31T22:43:00Z

For those of you who don’t already know the Fed decided to lower rates by a quarter-point to 4.50%. It was the second straight reduction this year. As expected, immediately following the announcement the market experienced several violent whipsaws only to finish the trading day substantially higher...(read more)

Sitting On Hands

2007-10-30T23:28:00Z

Traders locked in a few profits today as tomorrow brings the highly anticipated Fed announcement. Expect to see price action fluctuate for a brief period following the opening bell and then settle into a tight trading range as the market moves closer to the fed release...(read more)

Seasonally Bullish

2007-10-29T22:37:00Z

Before I move into today’s price action and what the next few trading days look like I would like to reiterate the overly bullish seasonal conditions that the market has entered. The last three days of October and the first three trading days of November are overwhelmingly bullish...(read more)

Seasonal Phenomenon Upon Us - New “Weekend Report” Sunday!

2007-10-27T00:44:00Z

As I stated yesterday, a notable seasonal phenomenon is upon us. The last three days of October and the first three trading days of November are overwhelmingly bullish. Going back over the enitre history of SPY (12 years), not once did the aforementioned time frame finish lower Furthermore, the Stock Trader’s Almanac has the six days marked with a bull symbol...(read more)

Strong Seasonal Winds Blowing In

2007-10-25T23:53:00Z

With only four trading days left in October will we see the historically bullish seasonality that occurs during the last three days of October and the first three trading days of November. Going back over the entire history (12 years) of SPY (S&P) not once did the aforementioned timeframe finish lower...(read more)

Market Neutral, Condors and Diagonals

2007-10-23T22:08:00Z

The short-term bounce that I first spoke about late last week seems to have exhausted itself. The short-term bounce could continue, but the high risk/reward position of the trade seems to have faded as prices have risen. The market still seems a bit heavy to me here...(read more)

Sell In May Revisited and Indices In A “Very Oversold” State

2007-10-20T01:23:00Z

Before I delve into the options strategies we follow and how the performed during the October cycle I would like to touch on a post that I write back in late April/early May of this year. On 5/3 I first spoke about the old Wall Street adage “Sell in May and go awaay...(read more)

October expiration and the mid-week bias

2007-10-16T21:15:00Z

The overall market has not quite reached an oversold state and by the looks of it I am not so sure that it will. After the closing bell some of the closely watched tech giants came out with postive earnings reports which have led to a substantial push higher in futures...(read more)

Mr. Probability

2007-10-12T01:05:00Z

Once again Mr. Probability was on our side. As expected the market took a bit of a breather today. The market gapped up today and then traded in a tight, sideways manner before investors locked in gains at record highs and consequently pushed the market lower...(read more)

Market remains overbought

2007-10-11T00:26:00Z

Not much has changed. The major benchmarks that we follow remain in an overbought situation and a short-term pullback is still anticipated. The next two days are quite bullish on a seasonal basis according to the Stock Trader’s Almanac. That being said, I am more comfortable, at least over the short-term, with the short side of the market...(read more)

Market in an overbought state once again….where to now?

2007-10-09T23:19:00Z

The market traded sideways until the much anticipated Fed Minutes were released at 2:00 EST. Once the minutes were released the market surged higher and never looked back. Now the major market benchmarks are back into an overbought to very overbought state...(read more)

Divergence in the major benchmarks

2007-10-09T00:09:00Z

Before I get started I wanted to thank David Gaffen for quoting me the other day in the Wall Street Journal. I have been quoted several times in the journal over the past year and it is certainly thrilling and each time I see myself in print or on the internet...(read more)