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Crowder Investment Research (Crowder's Corner)

Will the market reach an overbought state?

The higher-beta sectors were notably higher today while the lower beta SPY and DIA held steady. QQQQ is now in an overbought state. As I stated yesterday, if the major indices can somehow manage to get on the same page and rally into an overbought, preferably very overbought state then we could see the bears rear their ugly heads. Keep a close eye on the December highs as this area should act as a strong area of resistance especially if the major benchmarks are in an overbought state at the time.

I should also point out that the emerging markets have been tanking as of late and the decline could potentially trickle over into the U.S. markets over the intermediate-term. In the past, we have seen direct correlations between  sharp declines in the emerging markets sectors and declines in the U.S. markets.

As for the Oil Services sector, OIH, it has struggled to move out of oversold territory over the past six trading days. My guess is that a short-term bottom is near and that we could see a nice rally in OIH over the next week or so. OIH usually snaps back immediately following a move into oversold territory. The last time we saw a move that kept OIH in an oversold state for longer than three days was in mid-May when the indice lingered in a oversold to very oversold state for 11 trading days. That occasion signaled a short-term bottom and I think history will once again repeat itself over the short-term. I still think after we get a rally off of oversold conditions we could see another sell-off that takes OIH back down to the lows in late September/early October.

Have a great night!

Oversold/Overbought levels for January 9, 2007

  • SPY - 42.9 (neutral)
  • DIA - 46.1 (neutral)
  • IWM - 41.6 (neutral)
  • QQQQ - 70.3 (overbought)
  • OIH - 13.7 (very oversold)

If you enjoy the blog on daily basis just think how much you would learn from a paid subscription to our semi-monthly newsletter. Watch and learn firsthand how we implement our strategies.

Have a great night! 

Andrew Crowder, Chief Investment Strategist, www.crowderinvestments.com

 

Published Tuesday, January 09, 2007 9:33 PM by acrowder
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Crowder Investment Research ...
At Crowder Investment Research, LLC (www.crowderinvestments.com) we offer our thoughts on several stock and options-based strategies that might complement your long-term investment objectives. We provide you with the trading tools necessary to produce returns that attempt to outperform the major indices on an annual basis regardless of the economic environment. Our extensive research of numerous options-based strategies has shown that uncomplicated strategies, when applied effectively, consistently provide greater gains. Read the thoughts and ideas of our Chief Options Strategist, Andrew Crowder. He will provide you with educational tools, useful technical and seasonal indicators, and a wealth of investment research (updated daily) to increase your stock and options trading knowledge.

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