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Crowder Investment Research (Crowder's Corner)

The Dow Nearing Technical Extremes

The Dow (DIA) has once again moved into "very overbought" territory" and our shorter-term proprietary indicators are nearing also nearing an extreme.  I mentioned yesterday that if the bulls can sustain the positive momentum through tomorrow then we could see a short-term opportunity present itself as early as Friday. Thursday of option expiration week is typically positive and tomorrow is no different as the S&P, Dow and Nasdaq 100 are historically higher 61.9%, 71.4% and 71.4% of the time.

 

Remember, historically if the market is overbought as the market moves into the week of post options expiration a decent short opportunity  is usually found. In this case, the large-cap Dow (DIA) looks to be the most favorable for a short play. As you can see below the major indice is already in a "very overbought" state and continued push higher will only increase the probability of a short-term move lower over the short-term (1-5 days).

 

As a trader, it can be frustrating waiting for high-odds set-ups, but as my loyal readers and especially the subscribers to my ETF Extremes strategy have witnessed since the inception of my service, patience pays. Knowing when to sit on your hands is often the most difficult aspect of trading.  I will allow the market to make that determination for me over the next few days. Stay tuned!

 

Overbought/Oversold levels for May 16, 2007

  • SPY -  69.3 (neutral)
  • DIA - 84.0 (very overbought)
  • IWM - 42.7 (neutral)
  • QQQQ - 54.1 (neutral)
  • GLD -  27.2 (oversold)
  • OIH - 70.1 (overbought)

We work hard to bring you our latest views, opinions and research on a daily basis. If you are a loyal reader and find our thoughts useful please show us your support by joining our newsletter service.  We currently follow 2 stock option strategies and one stock-based strategy in our investment newsletter. All of our strategies use the major benchmarks as the underlying. Furthermore, you will receive two free months of our investment newsletter when you purchase our White Paper. Check it out!

Watch and learn how we implement our strategies.

Have a great night!

Andrew Crowder, Chief Investment Strategist, www.crowderinvestments.com

Published Wednesday, May 16, 2007 9:37 PM by acrowder
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The above content is provided for educational and informational purposes only, does not constitute a recommendation to enter in any securities transactions or to engage in any of the investment strategies presented in such content, and does not represent the opinions of Zecco or its employees.


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Crowder Investment Research ...
At Crowder Investment Research, LLC (www.crowderinvestments.com) we offer our thoughts on several stock and options-based strategies that might complement your long-term investment objectives. We provide you with the trading tools necessary to produce returns that attempt to outperform the major indices on an annual basis regardless of the economic environment. Our extensive research of numerous options-based strategies has shown that uncomplicated strategies, when applied effectively, consistently provide greater gains. Read the thoughts and ideas of our Chief Options Strategist, Andrew Crowder. He will provide you with educational tools, useful technical and seasonal indicators, and a wealth of investment research (updated daily) to increase your stock and options trading knowledge.

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